Old Skeet's Barometer Report

[catdog]

oldskeet,  Personally I read every one of your posts.  However this should not be a chore for you.  Participation in this forum should provide both knowledge and enjoyment.

catdog

[win1177]

Nov 28, 2024 13:11:41 GMT oldskeet said:

Hi guys. As of Wednesday's market close the barometer scores the S&P500 Index at the upper part of overvalued on it's scale with a reading of 68. Sentimate computes to +8, bullish.

For me, being fully invested within my asset allocation I am awaiting a pullback before I do any equity buying as I feel most stock valuations are extended at this time. If I was to put new money to work at this time it would be in my good equity dividend payers and also in my smid caps. But, they are at full allocation within my asset allocation.

I have been pondering discontinuing this thread at year end as I am feeling that it has lasted much longer that I intended when I began posting Old_Skeet's Barometer Report a few years back. I welcome your comments and will weigh them while I ponder the fate of the thread, whether to continue or discontinue.

Thank you for stopping by and reading.
Your past viewing and many comments contributing to the thread have been both welcomed and appreciated.

Wishing All ... A Happy Thanksgiving.

I am, Old_Skeet

Old skeet,
I too would miss your market commentary a LOT and hope (for selfish reasons) you continue to post it! Understand if you decide to stop it, but for purely selfish reasons hope you continue to post it. I also enjoy all the related commentary from others, and it will stimulate good market discussions here. I too worry that the market is close to “fully valued” and am probably NOT going to add any further equity, as we have “enough” and need to start switching to more of a “preserve and protect” mindset. We are 66 and 65, have probably more than we will ever need, and need to switch a a less aggressive approach, with more fixed income/ stable investments. Also hope others will continue to post, specifically uncle Harley as well as others!

Win

[richardsok]

Nov 28, 2024 19:44:55 GMT rhythmmethod said:

oldskeet , I also enjoy your posts. Please do what is best for you. - ORM - Old Rhythm Method~!

I agree with rhythm and keppel and all  the others, Skeet,    I'd hate to lose your contributions. 


You ask, "Why continue posting?" Like you, I've also had thoughts of "Why am I doing this?"    I keep getting the same answers.  First because I simply enjoy returning to the forum and hearing from familiar voices  -- and if I enjoy what others write, shouldn't I (in my own little manner) at least attempt to contribute?    Secondly (and speaking entirely for myself) I find  satisfaction making myself useful in some small way.    I'm an awkwardly shy person in real life --- so I get that part of it.  But if you post valued insights and opinions to a small group of intelligent people who know you and recognize you -- well that's not something to jettison idly.

Kudos to chang for rebuilding segments of the old M* forum out of no web presence at all -- he just decided to do it -- and it continues as a going concern.    But I worry about it sometimes.  We've lost too many good contributors in the past and new contributors who are  (A) worthwhile and (B) reliably active  (C)  trusted and interesting to read are hard to come by.   

My two bits.

[yogibearbull]

A useful thread that I always check. I hope that oldskeet will continue it, but I will understand if he doesn't.

[Chahta]

oldskeet, I dislike change. Hate to admit it but I do. I say keep going if you can. As I remember you left MFO and made a home here. Cheers and Merry Christmas.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. First, let me say Old_Skeet is not leaving the board. I am simply pondering whether to continue Old_Skeet's Barometer Report for 2025 or open a new thread and begin a new series. Remember, OS is in his mid and towards his late 70's in age and is in the distribution phase of investing. I began investing at the age of 12 with some seed money gifted from my late great grandfather. With this, I have progressed through many stages to where I am at today. My thoughts are that portfolio asset allocations based upon age, risk tolerance, and needs are the best avenue for the retail investor, like myself, to follow. For me, I made money, years back mostly thru trading activity. In doing this, I was always having to scout the next best opportunity. At times, there simply wasn't one. So, if I should close the Barometer Report there will be another interesting thread opened. What is holding me back as it will require more of my time than the Barometer Report.

For the week the Barometer scores the S&P500 Index at the top of the overvalued scale with a reading of 69. Sentimate computes to a reading of +6, bullish.

Thanks for stopping by and making comment. Your comments will play greatly on what I ultimately decide to do concerning the Barometer thread.

Thanks again, for your input. I can assure you they have been most appreciated.

Old_Skeet

[archer]

Nov 28, 2024 13:44:30 GMT uncleharley said:

Wow! Due to age related health problems, I too will be reducing my participation in this and other forums. I have reached a point where I am no longer as effective as I once was at short term trading, consequently I have sold my leveraged positions and reinvested the proceeds in buy to hold positions in DMO and PFE. DMO because it has been performing well for me and PFE gives me an opportunity to bottom-fish near what might be the top of the market. It also pays a 6.5% dividend while I am waiting for its China investment to pay off. Thanks to all for your very valuable feedback. I intend to stick around, but my focus will or has changed.

I think many areas of the market have improved the head fake over the past months, especially GDX.

I've enjoyed following this thread, and wish all contributors the best whatever direction this thread takes. A big thank you to oldskeet for keeping it going. 

[oldskeet]

Hi guys.

The S&P500 Index continues to punch out new highs closing today at 6086. But, according to the Barometer all is not well as it now rates the Index with a reading of 60 (overvalued) which is down 9 points from Friday's reading of 69. Sentimate has declined from a reading of +6 (bullish) to +2 (a bullish tilt).

What gives? The number of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average is in decline. This indicates fewer stocks are now driving the upward price movement of the Index.

Should the decline in the breadth continue I am fearful the the Index could soon experience a decline in its price.

With this, I continue to build cash while I await a better buying opportunity.

Wishing All ... Good Investing. OS

[archer]

This past 5 days, XLK and MAGS have gained relative to $SPX. When they lead it seems to often be at the expense of breadth. It's like a rotation back and forth between the many vs the few.

[chang]

Dec 4, 2024 23:40:21 GMT archer said:

This past 5 days, XLK and MAGS have gained relative to $SPX. When they lead it seems to often be at the expense of breadth. It's like a rotation back and forth between the many vs the few.

Annoying! I didn’t make a 2024 IRA contribution this year, expecting I would not be eligible. Now, my tax preparers just told me I can go ahead and do it. My Roth is 100% FBGRX, which is LCG, and I’m queasy about adding now. I guess I’ll just let the $8k sit in cash for a little while.

[yogibearbull]

chang, you have until 4/15/25 to make 2024 IRA contribution.

[chang]

Dec 5, 2024 1:50:44 GMT yogibearbull said:

chang, you have until 4/15/25 to make 2024 IRA contribution.

Yes, I know, but as a rule I make them on 1/1 of the applicable year. This is the latest I’ve ever done it.

[FD1000]

Dec 4, 2024 23:40:21 GMT archer said:

This past 5 days, XLK and MAGS have gained relative to $SPX. When they lead it seems to often be at the expense of breadth. It's like a rotation back and forth between the many vs the few.

You can call it rotation or take the easier way and hold :-)
My SIL gave up more trading and for years now splits his holding and adding new money to just SP500 and QQQ.

[uncleharley]

Dec 4, 2024 23:26:16 GMT oldskeet said:

Hi guys.

The S&P500 Index continues to punch out new highs closing today at 6086. But, according to the Barometer all is not well as it now rates the Index with a reading of 60 (overvalued) which is down 9 points from Friday's reading of 69. Sentimate has declined from a reading of +6 (bullish) to +2 (a bullish tilt).

What gives? The number of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average is in decline. This indicates fewer stocks are now driving the upward price movement of the Index.

Should the decline in the breadth continue I am fearful the the Index could soon experience a decline in its price.

With this, I continue to build cash while I await a better buying opportunity.

Wishing All ... Good Investing. OS

My method of checking the major index's Price, volume, & momentum continues to indicate a bullish domestic stock market. The exception is the transport index price which has turned down on light volume for the past 5 consecutive days.  Since this exception has happened while the price of oil is quite low, I would exercise caution on any new stock purchases.   

[uncleharley]

Another week has ended and we can add Dr Copper and the D J Real Estate index along with the Transports to the list of sectors that are giving off bearish momentum signals. The major stock indexes remain bullish in my opinion.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close December 6th the Barometer scores the S&P500 Index in a neutral position with a reading of 55. This is down from last Friday's close of 69.

Sentimate has also declined during the week moving from a reading of +6, bullish to 0, neutral.

Generally, falling barometer readings indicate concern especially when the Index is making new highs. This indicates that there is weakness appearing in the data feeds and if this continues then at some point this will be seen in a price line decline as well.

However, for me, since I am in the distribution phase of investing with a portfolio that generates a good income stream I remain fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation with ample cash to do some equity buying should there be a near term stock market pullback.

For now, growth has begun to out pace value. If I were to do any buying it would be in my good dividend paying mutual funds as they are presently the laggards.

Wishing All ... Good Investing.

Old_Skeet

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close Monday December 9th the Barometer continues to decline to a reading of 54 and sentiment has moved to a reading of -1. While these readings are in the neutral areas on the barometer's scale they are down considerably from where they were at the November close of 69 and +6. Falling barometer readings reflect concern.

Wishing All ... The Best This Holiday Season.

Old_Skeet

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close December 10th. the Barometer has dropped to a reading of 51 with sentimate remaining at -1. Not much more to write other than the stock market seems to be going soft. Perhaps, in a week, or so, things will improve as Christmas nears. Old_Skeet

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. For the week ending December 13th the Barometer closed with a reading of 49 with a sentimate score of 0. These readings fall in the neutral area on the barometer's scale and are much lower than those from November.

Seems, a good number of the eight data feeds have gone soft while others remain strong resulting in neutral readings. One that has gone soft is the breadth reading. In November it had a reading of 70+ with a sentimate reading of +13. Today it's reading is a little below 50 with a sentimate reading at 0. Why the concern? This indicates that the number of stocks that are supporting the rally have declined leaving fewer stocks to propel the Index higher. Plus the sentimate score has fallen as well. There are some other data feeds that have gone soft as well so the concern is not just with stock market breadth or the sentimate score.

With this, and for me, I remain invested within the confines of my asset allocation with ample cash to do some equity buying should near term stock market prices pullback as measred by the Index.

Wishing All ... Good Investing. OS

[uncleharley]

The weekly charts for the major indexes are not flashing sell signals yet. If current trends continue, the transport index will very likely flash a sell signal next week with the S&P indexes to follow close behind. That would include the small & mid-caps as well as the 500. Some tactical selling would be advised at that time, but it would still likely be early for most short sales. Meanwhile, anyone who has not reviewed their portfolio may want to do so and cull any under performers that they may be holding.

[retiredat48]

Dec 14, 2024 15:15:41 GMT uncleharley said:

The weekly charts for the major indexes are not flashing sell signals yet. If current trends continue, the transport index will very likely flash a sell signal next week with the S&P indexes to follow close behind. That would include the small & mid-caps as well as the 500. Some tactical selling would be advised at that time, but it would still likely be early for most short sales. Meanwhile, anyone who has not reviewed their portfolio may want to do so and cull any under performers that they may be holding.

Have done so.  Been jettisoning Healthcare...

If market lags or goes down this week, may be selling tranches of other equity type funds including technical sector.

R48