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Post by Karen on Nov 3, 2024 11:14:42 GMT
Meaningless standard fare... Interesting, how do you know that I post that long?... I know that you've posted about that long because my deceased husband's firm routinely monitored posts on their (as required) and various other investment forums for possible administrative and/or civil action. (Didn't they send you a snail mail letter one time related to your posts on their forum?) www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/social-mediaI hope that answers your question. |
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 3, 2024 12:13:22 GMT
Interesting, how do you know that I post that long?... I know that you've posted about that long because my deceased husband's firm routinely monitored posts on their (as required) and various other investment forums for possible administrative and/or civil action. (Didn't they send you a snail mail letter one time related to your posts on their forum?) www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/social-mediaI hope that answers your question. stiller, I know your style of writing too well and I also know you "love" me too (and must react) + you have used "to wit" and "sic" several times. I never got anything from finra and I doubt finra keeps a list of hundred of thousands of anonymous posters and sends the list to every financial adviser. |
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Post by chang on Nov 3, 2024 12:44:22 GMT
Guys, let’s not clutter up Old Skeet’s thread. Take it offline, please. (Incidentally, the Karen-Stillers resemblance has been the subject of offline speculation and analysis, and it seems that some interesting insights into the matter have been elucidated. However this is better not divulged and delved into on the public forum.)
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 3, 2024 13:03:41 GMT
Technically, doxing, or speculating about identities of posters, violates the terms of service (TOS) at most discussion forums, including ProBoards.
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Post by chang on Nov 3, 2024 13:42:03 GMT
Technically, doxing, or speculating about identities of posters, violates the terms of service (TOS) at most discussion forums, including ProBoards. The discussion concerns whether two anonymous IDs are the same, so this probably does not apply. Further posts on this topic will be removed out of respect for Old Skeet’s thread. |
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 3, 2024 16:08:50 GMT
FWIW; The bearish engulfing candle which developed Friday on the daily chart for the USD is signaling further declines in the value of the USD. The daily chart is poised for a short-term decline of about 4%. GDX is positioned for a similar but opposite move. The rest of my world is confused or distracted.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 5, 2024 8:46:15 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close 11/4 the barometer scores the Index at the lower end of neutral with a reading of 46. Sentimate computes to -4, slightly bearish.
For me, I might soon do a little equity buying around the edges. This will depend on how the market moves over the next couple of days. And, should we get a swoon I most likely will open a spiff position.
Old_Skeet
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 5, 2024 21:51:23 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close 11/5 the barometer scores the Index in a neutral position with a reading of 49. Sentimate computes to a reading of -3, slightly bearish.
Interesting to see how the barometer scores the Index tomorrow after election results have been announced this evening.
Wishing All ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 6, 2024 0:29:44 GMT
The charts that I watch closely all went up today except the USD. It went down about 1/2 %.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 6, 2024 21:19:03 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close 11/6 the barometer scores the S&P500 Index a touch overvalued with a reading of 61. Sentimate computes to +4, slightly bullish.
For me, being on bubble and within my asset allocation target weightings I now sit and enjoy the stock market's upward advance.
Kinda boring. But, it is what it is.
Old_Skeet
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 7, 2024 21:10:40 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close 11/7 the barometer scores the S&P500 Index as slightly overvalued with a reading of 62. Sentimate computes to +4, slightly bullish. Thanks for stopping by. OS
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 7, 2024 22:40:21 GMT
A quick review of the daily charts implies that nearly everything is back on trend. Was the election much ado about nothing financial?  |
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Post by archer on Nov 7, 2024 22:53:35 GMT
It might be good to look at what bumped the most the day after, as that could be an indication of longer term sentiment. I am watching SC and financials. XLF was the leading sector and also seasonally favored for Nov. IWM also had a larger than market gain and holds a strong position in financials.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 8, 2024 22:17:06 GMT
The election is over and the markets have survived. Most of the major stock indexes are back on trend with some setting new highs. Treasuries, mortgage rates, and other interest rates are consolidating at or close to their current levels. VIX & VXN are doing the equivalent of deep breathing exercises and might have a signal for us at a later date. The USD is bullish but at a very high level. GDX had a rough day but a strong close today. I remain fully invested in high yielding CEF's and leveraged gold miner positions. IOWs I have made no changes.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 9, 2024 7:20:27 GMT
Hi guys. As of Friday's market close the barometer scores the S&P500 Index as slightly overvalued with a reading of 62. Sentimate computes to +4, slightly bullish. With this, I am thinking there is more upside before year-end. Old_Skeet
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 10, 2024 15:45:32 GMT
Karen, FD1000, chang, yogibearbull, uncleharley, oldskeet, archer,... My experience is that when the market gets a somewhat surprise news of extent of Trump victory with long term implications, it goes up the next day strongly, followed by a day or two digesting gains. Meanwhile, many people have been assessing and talking with their brokers/financial reps, concluding to buy, but decide to wait till the weekend is over. Thus Monday may be an up market day, coupled with the seasonality favorability of Nov/Dec. OTOH The market may go down. There, that makes me a talking head financial advisor! R48
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 10, 2024 16:10:31 GMT
That is why I use charts.
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Post by habsui on Nov 10, 2024 17:53:19 GMT
Karen , FD1000 , chang , yogibearbull , uncleharley , oldskeet , archer ,... My experience is that when the market gets a somewhat surprise news of extent of Trump victory with long term implications, it goes up the next day strongly, followed by a day or two digesting gains. Meanwhile, many people have been assessing and talking with their brokers/financial reps, concluding to buy, but decide to wait till the weekend is over. Thus Monday may be an up market day, coupled with the seasonality favorability of Nov/Dec. OTOH The market may go down. There, that makes me a talking head financial advisor! R48 Sometimes it rains.. |
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 11, 2024 21:50:58 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close 11/11 the barometer scores the S&P500 Index as overvalued with a reading of 67. Sentimate computes to a reading of +7, bullish. Seems there is a fear of missing out on the Trump put. With this, I look for continued upside as we move through the next couple of months. And, so it goes. Old_Skeet
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Post by fred495 on Nov 12, 2024 0:14:21 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close 11/11 the barometer scores the S&P500 Index as overvalued with a reading of 67. Sentimate computes to a reading of +7, bullish. Seems there is a fear of missing out on the Trump put. With this, I look for continued upside as we move through the next couple of months. And, so it goes. Old_Skeet Seems like Buffett agrees with you that the market is overvalued. FYI, here is an excerpt from an article in today's yahoo!finance: "Over the last two years, Warren Buffett has been sending Wall Street a message loud and clear – without saying a word. His approach is more cautious than ever and Berkshire Hathaway's eye-popping $325 billion cash stockpile is the outcome of his latest strategy.
While investors have long emulated Buffett's moves, his latest decisions have raised eyebrows. This caution speaks volumes for a man known for his optimism in the U.S. economy.
For the past eight quarters, Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of equities, raking in $166 billion by off-loading massive amounts of stock, including longtime favorites, like Apple and Bank of America.
The scale of these sales is unprecedented, as it's the first time since 2018 that Buffett hasn't bought back any of Berkshire's stock – a move that hasn't gone unnoticed in the financial community. This stance hints at one thing: Buffett sees the market as significantly overvalued.
Much of this cash isn't being reinvested in the stock market but rather parked in short-term U.S. Treasury bills. Thanks to high yields, these low-risk investments have earned Berkshire close to $10 billion."
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2024 1:00:49 GMT
Buffett has been wrong for 2 years and gave up on 56% for his favorite investment, the SP500. schrts.co/TAmeUKhA |
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Post by chang on Nov 12, 2024 1:11:16 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close 11/11 the barometer scores the S&P500 Index as overvalued with a reading of 67. Sentimate computes to a reading of +7, bullish. Seems there is a fear of missing out on the Trump put. With this, I look for continued upside as we move through the next couple of months. And, so it goes. Old_Skeet Seems like Buffett agrees with you that the market is overvalued. FYI, here is an excerpt from an article in today's yahoo!finance: "Over the last two years, Warren Buffett has been sending Wall Street a message loud and clear – without saying a word. His approach is more cautious than ever and Berkshire Hathaway's eye-popping $325 billion cash stockpile is the outcome of his latest strategy.
While investors have long emulated Buffett's moves, his latest decisions have raised eyebrows. This caution speaks volumes for a man known for his optimism in the U.S. economy.
For the past eight quarters, Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of equities, raking in $166 billion by off-loading massive amounts of stock, including longtime favorites, like Apple and Bank of America.
The scale of these sales is unprecedented, as it's the first time since 2018 that Buffett hasn't bought back any of Berkshire's stock – a move that hasn't gone unnoticed in the financial community. This stance hints at one thing: Buffett sees the market as significantly overvalued.
Much of this cash isn't being reinvested in the stock market but rather parked in short-term U.S. Treasury bills. Thanks to high yields, these low-risk investments have earned Berkshire close to $10 billion."
Buffett’s selling may have been partly political. He said at the BH annual meeting earlier this year "with present fiscal policies I think that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely." He reiterated his belief that capital gains taxes would go up, which was part of his reason for preemptive selling. This seems to suggest a belief that the Democratic candidate would win the election, perhaps also the HR. Tax increases do not seem likely now. Buffett is very pragmatic, though, and not someone to deny reality. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts course. |
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 12, 2024 1:45:18 GMT
Hi guys. For information. Old_Skeet is fully invested within the confines of his asset allocation and is in the distribution phase of investing being retired for better than ten years.
I use my barometer as a means to help me determine the better times, for me, to put money to work. Being fully invested I simply do not chase upward moves in the market when the barometer reflects an overvalued and/or overbought condition exists.
At present, not selling or buying equities. Should there be a pullback I most likely will engage and open an equity spiff position.
If I was short in my equity allocation I'd be averaging in until equities reached their target and the allocation bubbled. Since, it is on bubble I now sit until a better opportunity presents itself.
Wishing all ... Good Investing.
Old_Skeet
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2024 4:35:49 GMT
OS "Being fully invested I simply do not chase"
I can't remember your allocation or exactly what you do after 50+ pages of posting
When you say you are chasing or not, what % of your portfolio in stocks are we talking about is changing?
2%, 5%, 10%?
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Post by mnfish on Nov 12, 2024 12:07:00 GMT
Buffett has been wrong for 2 years and gave up on 56% for his favorite investment, the SP500. schrts.co/TAmeUKhAObviously AAPL was one of his favorite investments and it is up 54% in 2 years. He’s been selling some but it’s up about 930% since he began buying it in 2016. Not quite the same as racing Yugos is it? |
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2024 12:12:07 GMT
Buffett has been wrong for 2 years and gave up on 56% for his favorite investment, the SP500. schrts.co/TAmeUKhAObviously AAPL was one of his favorite investments and it is up 54% in 2 years. He’s been selling some but it’s up about 930% since he began buying it in 2016. Not quite the same as racing Yugos is it? That doesn't change the following facts: Buffett have increased his MM and ST treasuries, it's a huge amount and a big % of his portfolio and they did a lot less than the SP500. |
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Post by Norbert on Nov 12, 2024 16:07:15 GMT
It's not helpful to focus in whether Buffett made a mistake or not. Besides, we don't have all the facts.
What's more interesting is why Buffett did what he did. Was he wrong ... or just early?
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 12, 2024 16:12:56 GMT
Obviously AAPL was one of his favorite investments and it is up 54% in 2 years. He’s been selling some but it’s up about 930% since he began buying it in 2016. Not quite the same as racing Yugos is it? That doesn't change the following facts: Buffett have increased his MM and ST treasuries, it's a huge amount and a big % of his portfolio and they did a lot less than the SP500. Yes...and Buffet opportunity cost loss in selling a lot of Bank America stock is huge. R48 |
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Post by archer on Nov 12, 2024 16:22:12 GMT
It's not helpful to focus in whether Buffett made a mistake or not. Besides, we don't have all the facts. What's more interesting is why Buffett did what he did. Was he wrong ... or just early? Perhaps Buffet isn't trying to predict the future as much as just seeing the present as investors being greedy, and taking a counter position of being fearful. |
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2024 21:47:10 GMT
There is no questions, B made the wrong decision.
He may have excuses but I don't buy any:
* He is too old and and not sharp anymore.
* He wants to leave the decisions for the next generation
* Valuations are too high
* Since he can't find great companies at lower price/valuation, the SP500 is the best bet according to him, but the whole world would question him....what, you also bought the index?
* He has so much money, how can he sell a big portion of his portfolio when the crash arrives without making it worse.
* He doesn't care about the ST, only the LT (wink, wink...SP500 left him in the dust).
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