Old Skeet's Barometer Report

[yogibearbull]

There are many frivolous threads at BB. So, why people who hate any TA (and some who hate anything other than their own pet rock) come here to rain on oldskeet 's long-running thread?

Jealousy?

Thread title is clear for uninterested posters to keep scrolling.

[bb2]

Agree, it is fun to play in the markets. Kinda like golf; challenging. There's an emotional kick when you get a win, pure a 4 iron. Reason to keep it to a small portion of your wealth.

[fritzo489]

+ ONE !! I'm still waiting my 1/st hole in one , by the way.

[bb2]

So Yogi, I wasn't throwing shade but asking how and if people use TA or feel the way they use it helps them.
(Guilty though, I started out a bit snarky.  My bad and am sorry.)
I've tried TA, studied from Pring and Edwards and Magee but after all that effort, dropped it.
(It was kinda fun.)
Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Fritzo - I have two holes in one; both pure luck. (Not like the ball ricocheted off a water cooler, then a tree first, decent shots, but still it's luck. Keep waiting. Buy the insurance so it doesn't cost you $2K in drinks when it happens.)

[uncleharley]

I use T/A to pick entry & exit points as well as doing projections. For exit and entry points I rely heavily on support & resistance levels that are frequently determined by changes in price and volume and/or the patterns that those changes make. For projections I use those patterns as well as the slope of a current move.   Yes, my use of T/A does add value to my portfolio returns, as does the use of leverage.

[FD1000]

UBS upgrades view on U.S. stocks to attractive - here are its top picks.
The firm sees further gains ahead of the market, whose benchmark, the S&P 500 (SP500), has risen +22% this year, including 46 record-high closes. UBS previously had a neutral view on U.S. stocks, but favorable domestic and global factors, such as China’s recent stimulus measures, prompted UBS’s upgrade.

---------

FD: after 22% they woke up.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. The S&P500 Index punched out a new closing high on Frday, 5865. The barometer which follows the Index scores it as extended and overbought with a reading of 76. Sentimate computes to +13, extremely bullish.

For me, since I am on bubble with my target asset allocation I am presently in a cash building mode. Recently, I made my last step buy in my Gold and Precious Metals and Mining Fund. Just this past week, alone, it was up better than 7%. It seems the miners are now starting to catch up with the upward movement that gold itself has had. How much more upward movement is to be had? Your guess is probably as good as mine.

For much of the rest of the 4th quarter I plan to just build cash and harvest 4th quarter capital gain distributions from my mutual funds which thus far from what I can tell will most likely run heavy this year.

And, so it goes.

Wishing All ... Good Investing.

I am, Old Skeet

[uncleharley]

My charts for the S&P are all continuing to show strong upward momentum and indicate they are overbought.  I remain fully invested and overweight in precious metals and miners.

  My targets for Gold & XAU [the gold and silver index], based on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts indicate gold bullion should rise to 3100/3200 in 3 to 4 months. The miners historically outperform bullion on a bull run. The long term, monthly chart for XAU indicates it should double in value over the next 2 or 3 years. Hope this helps & good luck.

CORRECTION; The long term, monthly chart for the Gold & Silver Index suggests the Index will double in 9 years, not 2 or 3. 

 stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24XAU&a=1808548154&p=M&b=3&g=0&id=p16059338531

SORREY

[habsui]

Oct 19, 2024 7:22:19 GMT FD1000 said:

UBS upgrades view on U.S. stocks to attractive - here are its top picks.
The firm sees further gains ahead of the market, whose benchmark, the S&P 500 (SP500), has risen +22% this year, including 46 record-high closes. UBS previously had a neutral view on U.S. stocks, but favorable domestic and global factors, such as China’s recent stimulus measures, prompted UBS’s upgrade.

---------

FD: after 22% they woke up.

You should try it, too..

[bb2]

My3sons! You're way more sophisticated than I. Leverage? Woah. Good on ya. Best of luck.

That gold miner lag trade seems to be a recurring theme when metal rises. That so? (not what I do but if it was...)

(Still kicking myself for not paying attention when my econ prof in 1976 said buy gold. (My college roommate worked for a sleazy guy, gold chains, unbuttoned silk shirts, the works, who was into the gold trade then. Don't judge a book...)

Concerning TA, Schwab has TA commentary as do many other sources. How does that figure into any TA based decision making for yall TA folk? If at all. Have you seen all the various takes and are they in sync?
My Pring book seems to regularly have alternative takes on the same data, which seems smart but the takes can be contrary to one another. Not that there's anything wrong with that but maybe another layer of thinking on top?

[uncleharley]

The gold and silver miner lag trade does reoccur, but the timing can be tricky.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close today, October 25th the barometer scores the S&P500 Index as slightly overvalued with a reading of 58. Sentimate computes to +4, a bullish tilt.

Last week sentimate was listed at +13, extremely bullish, and the barometer's reading was 76, extremely overbought.

With this, it will be interesting as to what next week's reading will be as we move closer to the election. I would not be surprised to see the stock market going soft as investors become more cautious and trim positions.

Thanks for stopping by and reading.

Wishing all ... Good Investing.

Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

My daily and weekly charts are showing a lot of short-term volatility and longer-term stability. The short-term volatility seems to be related to Global tensions which probably do not have much to do with economics or finance. The upcoming election probably has a lot of investors in a wait & see mode. My conclusion is that we will have some buying opportunities coming up soon. Probably next week. Maybe the week after. Probably in REITS and/or precious metals. I can't think of anything I want to be short on at this time.

[uncleharley]

The S&P 500 may have found support at 5700, The nasdaq at 18000, the ten yr a cieling at 43. Time will give us confirmation or not.

S&P still has some work to do.  Nasdaq support has held thru the close.  10 yr treasury remains below 43 as of todays close.

[steadyeddy]

Friday, Monday and Tuesday would be wobbly for obvious reasons -

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close on 10/31 I have the S&P500 Index off it's 52 week high by about 3%. Old_Skeet's barometer scores the Index at a neutral position on it's scale with a reading of 48. The sentimate reading computes to -2, a bearish tilt.

Should the Index continue it's downward movement I will most likely open an equity ballist position using a Pimco fund, PSPAX. Not only would this be a play on equities it would be a play on fixed income movement as well. Plus, it has a yield of better than 6% so I will collect a dividend should I have to wait for a stock market turnaround.

I will make my weekly post on the barometer tomorrow evening.

Take care.

Old_Skeet

[Capital]

Oct 31, 2024 23:10:50 GMT steadyeddy said:

Friday, Monday and Tuesday would be wobbly for obvious reasons -

The headache could last until later in the week. I hope we know the finality of the event by Friday.
In the meantime panic, insecurity and fear of the unknown will rule the markets. Maybe even a bit longer.

[archer]

From what I have heard over the years, the market doesn't care who is elected, yet there is expected volatility before the election because the market doesn't like uncertainty. So to put it all together the market doesn't like uncertainty about something that doesn't matter to begin with. Go figure!

[steadyeddy]

It will be a landslide... hopefully for the candidate you are rooting for -

[Capital]

There is also a FED meeting next week Wednesday and Thursday. That may have a greater impact on the markets than that "other event"
Chahta , I added the "other event" language just for your entertainment. 

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. Seems that the S&P500 Index has hit a rough patch as the US Presidential election nears. For me, there is a bright spot as earnings for the Index are projected to grow by about 14.8% for 2025. In addition, it is anticipated that the FOMC will continue with its rate reduction policy along with a pretty strong economy things look favorable for the stock market through the rest of the year and on into the coming year.

For the week the Index closed off it's 52 week high by 2.3% with the yield of the US10YrT at 4.36%. Old_Skeet's barometer scores the Index in a neutral position with a reading of 49. Sentimate computes to -1, a slight bearish tilt.

For me, should stocks pullback beyond a five percent decline and with the 2025 earnings projections I plan to open an equity spiff position using a Pimco fund, PSPAX. This fund currently sports better than a 6.2% yield since about 70% of it is invested in income generating securities, some stocks, along with a relative strong presence in S&P500 future contracts. Should you have an interest in this fund you may want to do your own due diligence.

Wishing all ... Good Investing.

I am, Old_Skeet



Additional comment: The reason that I now use PSPAX as one of my equity ballast funds is that when I do a nav transfer from another A share Pimco income only fund my income stream continues along with gaining the upside that equities generally provide after a stock market pullback. So, for me, this is a win, win, situation as my income stream continues plus I also receive the anticipated equity rebound upside.

[steadyeddy]

Nov 1, 2024 21:02:58 GMT Chahta said:

Nov 1, 2024 20:26:22 GMT Capital said:

There is also a FED meeting next week Wednesday and Thursday. That may have a greater impact on the markets than that "other event"
Chahta , I added the "other event" language just for your entertainment. 

Maybe, but you are just a nice guy anyway.

I hope the jobs report today is very important. I want to see rates go down.

Rates can NOT and should NOT go down. Inflation is not under control yet.

[mnfish]

"Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government."

Private sector jobs -28k -- Government jobs +40k

"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from
+159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to
+223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower
than previously reported."

They were only off by 51% for August

[Fearchar]

I took a look at PSPAX; StocksPLUS® A

The fund has been around for a while, which is good.
Over the past 10 years, its correlation with the S&P500 (SPY and VOO) is 100%.
That's remarkable, but also implies that it is essentially a closet index fund.

Expected return though is 12.63% versus 13.33% and 13.38%.
Standard deviation is 16.11% versus 15.34% and 15.35%.
Sharpe Ratio is 0.678 versus 0.758 and 0.761.

[yogibearbull]

Fearchar , PSPAX is Pimco version of +1x SP500 index; ER 1.10%; 01/1997-. There is also PSSAX -1x SP500; ER 1.16%; 07/2006-. These funds have been around for years. 

Pimco is a bond shop. A few years ago, it tried to develop an equity department, but gave up.

So, Pimco equity funds get equity exposures via derivatives and they put remaining 90-95% of assets in bonds, a Pimco specialty. "Plus" in the name is for this strategy. Pimco claims that the bond income/performance makes up for more than its very high ERs. Also, PSSAX is unique in the mutual fund world. In brokerage accounts, you can now use lots of +/- 1x ETFs.

[FD1000]

Nov 2, 2024 2:34:30 GMT steadyeddy said:

Nov 1, 2024 21:02:58 GMT Chahta said:

Maybe, but you are just a nice guy anyway.

I hope the jobs report today is very important. I want to see rates go down.

Rates can NOT and should NOT go down. Inflation is not under control yet.

The problem is how long are we talking?
One week? A month? 6 months?
Almost every time I hear a prediction, I see the opposite in the last several years.
At the end of 2023, many "experts" predicted 6-7 cuts...and were wrong.
Then, several months ago the 10 year Treasury went down and the experts told us this time it's for real...and rates climbed up.
So, where rates are going next week,month,year?
No idea, I just know what bond funds to buy that make money...and stocks made money regardless.

[chang]

FD1000 If every expert’s prediction is always wrong, then wouldn’t someone who predicts the opposite always be right?

And for every expert who predicts something, isn’t there usually another expert who predicts the opposite?

Something tells me “the experts are always wrong” is an oversimplification of the truth, if not actually somewhat meaningless.

[Karen]

Nov 2, 2024 19:26:25 GMT chang said:

FD1000 If every expert’s prediction is always wrong, then wouldn’t someone who predicts the opposite always be right?

And for every expert who predicts something, isn’t there usually another expert who predicts the opposite?

Something tells me “the experts are always wrong” is an oversimplification of the truth, if not actually somewhat meaningless.

Meaningless standard fare for that poster for the past (as I understand it) 15-20 years or so across multiple forums.  It's so tiring and boring, and the main reason I don't participate much on this forum. 

Any investor worth their salt should KNOW that predictions/projections about the magnitude and/or number of rate increases/cuts is a fools game.  Hell, even getting the direction of interest rates is difficult a lot of times. 

Here is a tiny sampling of places my dearly departed husband (a 30+ year industry vet) would suggest a learned investor might want to look for something other than sophomoric commentary about projections and predictions: 

www.techopedia.com/investing/most-accurate-stock-predictors
(To wit, I'm a self-proclaimed Dummy Investor who simply owns 12 OEFs, 8 Domestic Stock [2 Index, 6 Actively Managed], 2 Foreign Stock, 2 Allocation. All 6 of the Actively Managed Domestic OEFs are owned with the intention of beating the indexes this year and over 1-3-5-10 year periods.  They all do with an occasional outlier in a given interim period here or there.  They are currently UP YTD an average of 28% vs the Indexes average of 20%.  HINT:  The minority of OEF PMs that beat the Indexes annually do so routinely as their PM's [think expert's] predictions and projections [better sit down earth-shattering disclosure coming!] are consistently WRONG RIGHT!  Moral:  It's not about how many are right or wrong, it's about identifying the one's who are consistently RIGHT!)       

hbr.org/1984/09/are-economic-forecasters-worth-listening-to (Dated, but well worth the read)

www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/oxford-economics-ranks-top-in-the-focuseconomics-analyst-forecast-awards-2024/

[archer]

Somehow the number of experts increased from many to every. Many experts are are in fact wrong, usually the bearish ones capitalizing on fear mongering, and a fewer number are correct, usually the ones that predict the market can go either way,

[FD1000]

Nov 2, 2024 20:17:07 GMT Karen said:

Nov 2, 2024 19:26:25 GMT chang said:

FD1000 If every expert’s prediction is always wrong, then wouldn’t someone who predicts the opposite always be right?

And for every expert who predicts something, isn’t there usually another expert who predicts the opposite?

Something tells me “the experts are always wrong” is an oversimplification of the truth, if not actually somewhat meaningless.

Meaningless standard fare for that poster for the past (as I understand it) 15-20 years or so across multiple forums.  It's so tiring and boring, and the main reason I don't participate much on this forum. 

Any investor worth their salt should KNOW that predictions/projections about the magnitude and/or number of rate increases/cuts is a fools game.  Hell, even getting the direction of interest rates is difficult a lot of times. 

Here is a tiny sampling of places my dearly departed husband (a 30+ year industry vet) would suggest a learned investor might want to look for something other than sophomoric commentary about projections and predictions: 

www.techopedia.com/investing/most-accurate-stock-predictors
(To wit, I'm a self-proclaimed Dummy Investor who simply owns 12 OEFs, 8 Domestic Stock [2 Index, 6 Actively Managed], 2 Foreign Stock, 2 Allocation. All 6 of the Actively Managed Domestic OEFs are owned with the intention of beating the indexes this year and over 1-3-5-10 year periods.  They all do with an occasional outlier in a given interim period here or there.  They are currently UP YTD an average of 28% vs the Indexes average of 20%.  HINT:  The minority of OEF PMs that beat the Indexes annually do so routinely as their PM's [think expert's] predictions and projections [better sit down earth-shattering disclosure coming!] are consistently WRONG RIGHT!  Moral:  It's not about how many are right or wrong, it's about identifying the one's who are consistently RIGHT!)       

hbr.org/1984/09/are-economic-forecasters-worth-listening-to (Dated, but well worth the read)

www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/oxford-economics-ranks-top-in-the-focuseconomics-analyst-forecast-awards-2024/

Interesting, how do you know that I post that long?
I could be wrong but based on the above narrative and others in the past, I welcome your posts anytime...stiller=Arriba=Albie.
BTW, I agree about finding the right ones and they are the minority.