Old Skeet's Barometer Report

[FD1000]

Karen ,
My last post about predictions:

In 01/2024 (www.withplenty.com/blog/2024-wall-street-forecasts-for-the-s-p-500): "The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to be at a level of 4,861 by the end of 2024."

In 08/2024 (www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp500-end-2024-near-current-level-suggests-ai-rally-fizzling-out-2024-08-20/): "The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab will end 2024 at 5,600 points, according to the median forecast of 41 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected Aug. 8-20."

I know it's average vs Median, but the difference is still high.

==============

www.danerwealth.com/blog/the-terrible-track-record-of-wall-street-forecasts

I have been documenting expert prediction since 2000 and they are not good. 

=================

Wall St can't even forecast the SP500 next quarter earnings which is just 3 months away and earnings are easier to forecast.

[habsui]

Sept 21, 2024 18:37:39 GMT FD1000 said:

Karen ,
My last post about predictions:

In 01/2024 (www.withplenty.com/blog/2024-wall-street-forecasts-for-the-s-p-500): "The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to be at a level of 4,861 by the end of 2024."

In 08/2024 (www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp500-end-2024-near-current-level-suggests-ai-rally-fizzling-out-2024-08-20/): "The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab will end 2024 at 5,600 points, according to the median forecast of 41 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected Aug. 8-20."

I know it's average vs Median, but the difference is still high.

==============

www.danerwealth.com/blog/the-terrible-track-record-of-wall-street-forecasts

I have been documenting expert prediction since 2000 and they are not good. 

=================

Wall St can't even forecast the SP500 next quarter earnings which is just 3 months away and earnings are easier to forecast.

Not too bad for your last post.
Thanks for the memories.

[Karen]

Sept 24, 2024 5:42:16 GMT habsui said:

Sept 21, 2024 18:37:39 GMT FD1000 said:

Karen ,
My last post about predictions:

In 01/2024 (www.withplenty.com/blog/2024-wall-street-forecasts-for-the-s-p-500): "The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to be at a level of 4,861 by the end of 2024."

In 08/2024 (www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp500-end-2024-near-current-level-suggests-ai-rally-fizzling-out-2024-08-20/): "The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab will end 2024 at 5,600 points, according to the median forecast of 41 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected Aug. 8-20."

I know it's average vs Median, but the difference is still high.

==============

www.danerwealth.com/blog/the-terrible-track-record-of-wall-street-forecasts

I have been documenting expert prediction since 2000 and they are not good. 

=================

Wall St can't even forecast the SP500 next quarter earnings which is just 3 months away and earnings are easier to forecast.

Not too bad for your last post.
Thanks for the memories.

Which predictably (sic) has nothing to do with the issue I raised or support I provided about the inaccuracy of his prior post about purported mandatory increases in analyst's projection when the SPY (sic) reaches new highs.   

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. A midweek update. As of market close today the barometer, with a reading of 70, scores the S&P 500 Index as extended and overbought. The sentimate score is +7, bullish.

For me, I am being very selective in new buys. I recently, added to my precious metals and mining fund along with a smidcap opportunity fund. FWIW. I am thinking near-term buying opportunity will present itself as we mover closer to election time.

Let's see how the barometer closes at week's end.

Old_Skeet

[richardsok]

"The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to be at a level of 4,861 by the end of 2024."

Where do you get those numbers, FD? I'm seeing predictions around 5900 - 6100.

None of which I believe, of course, but those are the recent predictions I'm reading.

[FD1000]

Sept 26, 2024 0:46:59 GMT richardsok said:

"The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to be at a level of 4,861 by the end of 2024."

Where do you get those numbers, FD? I'm seeing predictions around 5900 - 6100.

None of which I believe, of course, but those are the recent predictions I'm reading.

Since you asked I have to answer. Please reread my post

In 01/2024 "The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to be at a level of 4,861 by the end of 2024."

In 08/2024...5600

The higher the price goes, several forecasts will be updated higher.

========

I also posted that "Wall St can't even forecast the SP500 next quarter earnings which is just 3 months away and earnings are easier to forecast" (advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092024A.pdf#:~:text=As%20of%20today%2C%20the%20S%26P,earnings%20growth%20for%20the%20index.)

September 20, 2024
Key Metrics

• Earnings Growth: For Q3 2024, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 4.6%. If
4.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 5th straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth
for the index.

• Earnings Revisions: On June 30, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q3
2024 was 7.8%. Eight sectors are expected to report lower earnings today (compared to June 30) due to downward

revisions to EPS estimates.

[richardsok]

FD:  thanks for clarification.  I must have missed something.

[racqueteer]

Cutting to the chase, no one knows what is going to happen in the future.  Some with skills might be able to narrow the odds of being right, but don't count on that happening.  A skillful person, who is both adaptable and decisive, has the best chance of successfully reacting to market conditions.  Most people, however, are better served by having a portfolio whose volatility allows them to remain invested through thick and thin, and who simply follow the market.  This is why a standard, S&P indexed fund is recommended in combination with a well-rounded 'bond' fund.  Or an allocation fund with the desired allocation.

Now, can we stop beating this dead (or non-existing) nag day after day?  I think everyone on here knows this stuff already!?

[yogibearbull]

I wish there was a PB site limit on how many times posters can repeat the same idea or thought - in view of the lack of self-control by some posters.

[Chahta]

Isn't revising forecasts what TA is all about? Either up or down as the market goes?

[Chahta]

Sept 26, 2024 13:10:14 GMT yogibearbull said:

I wish there was a PB site limit on how many times posters can repeat the same idea or thought - in view of the lack of self-control by some posters.

Maybe with AI coming into it's own, some day it will happen! 

[uncleharley]

Sept 26, 2024 12:37:40 GMT racqueteer said:

Cutting to the chase, no one knows what is going to happen in the future.  Some with skills might be able to narrow the odds of being right, but don't count on that happening.  A skillful person, who is both adaptable and decisive, has the best chance of successfully reacting to market conditions.  Most people, however, are better served by having a portfolio whose volatility allows them to remain invested through thick and thin, and who simply follow the market.  This is why a standard, S&P indexed fund is recommended in combination with a well-rounded 'bond' fund.  Or an allocation fund with the desired allocation.

Now, can we stop beating this dead (or non-existing) nag day after day?  I think everyone on here knows this stuff already!?

Perhaps we could focus on the melt-up that seems to have begun.

[keppelbay]

Chahta,

congratulations on the promotion to Galactus... may your next step be to spiral neblus (or should that be nebulous???).

[racqueteer]

Sept 26, 2024 15:49:54 GMT uncleharley said:

Perhaps we could focus on the melt-up that seems to have begun.

It looks as if the former leaders, tech and chips, may have broken above resistance, and we seem to be getting some broad market support as we approach the close.  Those are good signs, but we remain off the day's highs.

[habsui]

Sept 21, 2024 18:37:39 GMT FD1000 said:

Karen ,
My last post about predictions:

In 01/2024 (www.withplenty.com/blog/2024-wall-street-forecasts-for-the-s-p-500): "The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to be at a level of 4,861 by the end of 2024."

In 08/2024 (www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp500-end-2024-near-current-level-suggests-ai-rally-fizzling-out-2024-08-20/): "The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab will end 2024 at 5,600 points, according to the median forecast of 41 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected Aug. 8-20."

I know it's average vs Median, but the difference is still high.

==============

www.danerwealth.com/blog/the-terrible-track-record-of-wall-street-forecasts

I have been documenting expert prediction since 2000 and they are not good. 

=================

Wall St can't even forecast the SP500 next quarter earnings which is just 3 months away and earnings are easier to forecast.

This is like déjà vu all over again ...

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close Friday September 27th the barometer scores the S&P500 Index extended and overbought with a reading of 76. The sentimate reading came in at +8, bullish.

Year to date the Index is up 968 points (20.3%). For the quarter it gained 278 points (5.1%).

Areas that I am currently adding new money to are my precious metals and minning fund, my smidcap opportunity fund, and some of my multi sector income funds.

I remain fully invested within my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. For the month it had a total return of 1.92%. For the quarter it gained 5.4%. For the year it is up 12.1%. And, for the rolling year it is up 21.2%. Being an All Weather conseratitive asset allocation that it is I am a happy camper with these results.

Wishing all ... Good Investing.

Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

I have a different way of looking at the market, but I seem to come to similar conclusions. The momentum for the SMIDS and the NDX has leveled off at high levels since this past July. Momentum for the S&P500 looks very similar, but the price continues to make higher highs on a weekly basis. The CRB index indicates that commodities in general have been flat for more than a year. This is probably the area for future outsized gains. XAU, the gold & silver index, has been setting new recent highs on a weekly basis and is approaching a trendline breakout point which points to all-time highs. Coffee was up 7.34% this week and sugar is rising on very strong trading volume. I made no changes in my port last week.

[retiredat48]

I added some of my recent various dividends sitting in a money market fund, to SLV Silver last week.

Not a major holding.

R48

[uncleharley]

The S&P spiked to a new high this afternoon. Does anyone know what made headlines around 2/2:30 PM EST.

[yogibearbull]

There was a Powell dip mid-day - he said that the Fed wasn't in rush to cut, so don't get too excited by the 1st 50 bps cut.

Then, the market decided that wasn't anything to worry about & continued its merry ways.

[fishingrod]

Sept 30, 2024 20:21:02 GMT uncleharley said:

The S&P spiked to a new high this afternoon. Does anyone know what made headlines around 2/2:30 PM EST.

uncleharley ,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8mIw_7BSgs

 Opening speech by Powell.

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240930a.htm

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. Based upon the metrics of the barometer as of market close today it scores the S&P500 Index extended and overbought with a reading of 75. Sentimate is computed to be +9, bullish.

With the pullback in bonds today I added another step buy in my fixed income sleeve in PPVAX.

Awaiting a pullback in equities before I do any buying on the equity side of my portfolio.

Thanks for stopping by.

Wishing all ... Good Investing.

Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

Good Morning!!! Price, Trading volume, & momentum have been net flat on both the daily and weekly charts for the S&P 500. Other indexes have mild diversions implying that there are special situations to invest in if you can find them. I expect the markets to be dull until after the election. Then 1/2 the population will be happy, while the other 1/2 will be sad and they will trade with each other. Until then, Relax & Enjoy.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys and good morning. As of market close on 10/9 the S&P500 Index reached a new closing high of 5792. With this the barometer scores the Index as extended and overbought with a reading of 72. Sentimate computes to +9, bullish.

After the strong September I was thinking there would be some volitality with a possible pullback going into the Presidential election which is about a month away. In addition earnings season starts in a few days with some of the major banks reporting.

Recently, I bought on the income side of my portfolio and I am awaiting a better buying opportunity before I buy on the equity side.

Take Care and May God Bless America.

I am, Old_Skeet

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. The barometer scores the S&P500 Index extended and extremely overbought as of Friday's market close with a reading of 76. The sentimate reading computes to +13, bullish.

For me, I am enjoying this upward movement as I am fully invested within my All Weather Asset Allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. Generally, I buy on the equity side during stock market pullbacks and don't chase them during strong upward runs. So, now I sit until something breaks.

Have a great weekend; and, thanks for stopping by. Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

My port is having a strong day today but, the S&P is having a very weak close. Just one more mystery in a volatile market.

[bb2]

Wow, reading the last 20 or so posts. Glad I don't pay attention to this stuff.
Do you guys find it useful, these day to day predictions, technicals, etc?
I get it if so, just not my thing. Too much work.
But if someone here makes use of it, I'm all ears.
My wife's manager has their proprietary tool, (one guy is a well known technical guy), and as far as I can tell, even if it is helpful for them, they don't use it much as they pretty much buy and hold but for maybe a little change around 5% max of the portfolio at inflection points. So, even they don't really buy into the tool. At least not with their client's money.

[FD1000]

Bb2, good observation.

[uncleharley]

Oct 17, 2024 19:39:49 GMT bb2 said:

Wow, reading the last 20 or so posts. Glad I don't pay attention to this stuff.
Do you guys find it useful, these day to day predictions, technicals, etc?
I get it if so, just not my thing. Too much work.
But if someone here makes use of it, I'm all ears.
My wife's manager has their proprietary tool, (one guy is a well known technical guy), and as far as I can tell, even if it is helpful for them, they don't use it much as they pretty much buy and hold but for maybe a little change around 5% max of the portfolio at inflection points. So, even they don't really buy into the tool. At least not with their client's money.

In an effort to put my posts into perspective, I made a quick check of my portfolio at Fidelity which showed my trading position is 7.63% of my liquid assets.  The rest is invested in high yielding CEFs that I consider to be buy & hold but are tradable.  My liquid assets are probably less than 1% of my net assets.  I consider this and other similar forums to be entertainment, not investment advice.  My posts are my opinion.  My profile clearly states that you should not follow me.  My posts are for my benefit and not anyone else.  I have found that if I write out my opinions and read them later, I make better decisions.  That is what works for me.  FWIW, I am not particularly interested in what works for others although I wish them the best of luck.

[racqueteer]

I don't think that many of us are in danger of missing a meal; except by choice. I also suspect that most of us are going to end up leaving money on the table for our heirs, and that a lot of us invest as a hobby, as participation in a self-focussed game, or, yes, as a competition of sorts. Some of us need to 'win'.

I'm with UH on this: I do this for a variety of reasons, and I don't really care if I beat this or that goal or person. Other than my desire to be competent at the stuff I attempt, and in the ultimate scheme of things, what others do is pretty much irrelevant to me personally.