Old Skeet's Barometer Report

[archer]

I backtested BRKB since inception and many increments including YTD. BRKB has led the S&P. In periods where he was ahead it was usually with a better Sharpe. There are some start dates that favor SPY, but most dates not. Here is a link if you want to pick you choice of cherries.

Relevant to this thread is whether BRK is worthy of referring to as a market predictor. From what I see, short term (periods of a few months), Sometimes he pulls ahead of SPY and sometimes falls behind. I consider myself a better predictor. For example yesterday I bought into TNA (3X IWM) of course today small caps were the worst place to be. This happens more often than not, so head over to the B&S thread and just do the opposite of what I do.

[sgra]

With all the BRK talk, this caught my eye: Buffett’s Berkshire Is Being Packaged Into a Leveraged ETF, in case you can't get enough of the stuff. finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-berkshire-being-packaged-leveraged-193611168.html

[oldskeet]

Good morning guys. Here is the barometer reading prior to Friday's market open for the S&P500 Index. The barometer scores the Index at the upper part of fair value with a reading of 59. Sentimate computes to a reading of +2, a bullish tilt. Check back this evening for the closing reading. Thanks for stopping by. Old_Skeet

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close today 11/15 the S&P500 Index closed 2.17% off it's 52 week high of 6001 at 5871. The barometer scores the Index towards the mid point of fair value with a reading of 53. Sentimate falls in a neutral position with a reading of 0.

At this point I am not sure if the market will find footing and rise or traders will continue to look for reasons to trim equity position and we have a continued decline. Your guess is probably as good as mine.

However, should we get a pullback in the 5% to 7% range I plan to engage with an equity spiff position using PSPAX which closely tracks the Index plus it sports better than a 6% yield.

Have a great weekend; and, thanks for stopping by.

Old_Skeet

[archer]

I heard from a market analyst earlier this week that we might be having some heavy options expirations about this time. With the post election run up, it is possible market makers could decide to lower prices. I'm not clear on how options work but supposedly there can be a benefit for the big money to sell off.

[uncleharley]

It was a tough week for stocks, bonds, & commodities. An optimist will tell you that one week in a row does not make a trend, but I will be using the weekend to rethink my port. Meanwhile coffee is doing well. The spot price is at a recent high and approaching an all-time high.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of market close Wednesgay November 20th the barometer scores the S&P500 Index in a neutral position with a reading of 51. Sentimate computes to a slight bearish tilt with a score of -1. The question, for me, is where do we go (near term) from here? Long term full year 2025 earnings are looking pretty strong and project to be up by around 14%, or so.

For now I sit awaiting a pullback.

[chang]

Nov 21, 2024 2:48:03 GMT oldskeet said:

For now I sit awaiting a pullback.

'T isn't the season for a pullback, ordinarily.

[oldskeet]

Hi chang. Yep, usually this is the time of the year for upward movement in the capital markets. But, the barometer is seeing stress thus the lower than normal readings one would expect this time of the year. Thus, I sit, building cash, while I await a better buying opportunity. OS

[richardsok]

Nov 16, 2024 2:56:29 GMT uncleharley said:

It was a tough week for stocks, bonds, & commodities. An optimist will tell you that one week in a row does not make a trend, but I will be using the weekend to rethink my port. Meanwhile coffee is doing well. The spot price is at a recent high and approaching an all-time high.

     How does the retail investor take a position in coffee without mucking about in  futures?  The three symbols I seem to remember --  JO,  CAFE and COFF -- all appear to be dead.

   Meanwhile chocolate is on a run.    COCO shows classic "break to new highs" momo.

-

[uncleharley]

Nov 21, 2024 10:13:45 GMT richardsok said:

Nov 16, 2024 2:56:29 GMT uncleharley said:

It was a tough week for stocks, bonds, & commodities. An optimist will tell you that one week in a row does not make a trend, but I will be using the weekend to rethink my port. Meanwhile coffee is doing well. The spot price is at a recent high and approaching an all-time high.

     How does the retail investor take a position in coffee without mucking about in  futures?  The three symbols I seem to remember --  JO,  CAFE and COFF -- all appear to be dead.

   Meanwhile chocolate is on a run.    COCO shows classic "break to new highs" momo.

-That is a good question.  DBA may give you some exposure along with a lot of other Ag products.  Starbucks might be a candidate for a short.  I'll look some more later today.

[habsui]

I have a smallish interest in a wine distributorship.

Sales are up since the election.. 

[archer]

Nov 21, 2024 18:23:06 GMT habsui said:

I have a smallish interest in a wine distributorship.

Sales are up since the election.. 

That's an example of a wide moat, covering both celebration and drowning sorrows. 

[Capital]

Nov 21, 2024 18:23:06 GMT habsui said:

I have a smallish interest in a wine distributorship.

Sales are up since the election.. 

I'm probably one of your buyers.

[archer]

Charts are looking good for the major indexes, especially $SPX and IWM. Support was found at the rising 20 day and oct. highs, and there has been favorable intraday buying this week finishing near the highs. Over the years there has been increasing tolerance for an overvalued market, but how much remains to be seen. As we learned in 2000, this time is different until it aint.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. Over the past two days the barometer reading has greatly improved and has moved upward to a reading of 62, slightly overvalued. Sentimate has also improved moving upward to a reading of +5, the lower end of bullish.

Seems, the markets are starting to find traction as they approach new market highs with the Holiday shopping season soon to begin. This should be a driver and provide fuel for more upward movement.

Thanks for stopping by and reading.

Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

If one shifts their focus from stocks to bonds they get a mildly different story. For instance, the weekly chart for TLT (the 20 yr treasury) shows that this past weeks activities created a death cross by the 10/40 wk Ma, confirmed be a similar cross by the MACD, as well as a failed attempt by Captain Price to rise above a volume based resistance level. All of this on a light volume week. All of this implies to me that we have begun a bearish correction in interest rates that could last for the long term.

stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TLT&a=514945427&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p12064083774

[yogibearbull]

uncleharley, what do you make of strength in utilities? Usually, rising utilities mean lower rates soon.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UTIL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p04594303180

[richardsok]

Nov 24, 2024 14:19:28 GMT uncleharley said:

If one shifts their focus from stocks to bonds they get a mildly different story. For instance, the weekly chart for TLT (the 20 yr treasury) shows that this past weeks activities created a death cross by the 10/40 wk Ma, confirmed be a similar cross by the MACD, as well as a failed attempt by Captain Price to rise above a volume based resistance level. All of this on a light volume week. All of this implies to me that we have begun a bearish correction in interest rates that could last for the long term.

stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TLT&a=514945427&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p12064083774

Mmmm.   Might have a different take.   I have been watching TLTW during its long slide,   but for the past few days I have been picking up a sharply reduced daily range and a firming of a possible floor so Friday, that was enough for me to venture a speculative new position.  Key here will be if TLTW breaks under 88 to  87 or not.  If so, I sell it all at once.

[uncleharley]

Nov 24, 2024 14:27:09 GMT yogibearbull said:

uncleharley , what do you make of strength in utilities? Usually, rising utilities mean lower rates soon.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UTIL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p04594303180

Price is approaching a new high on weak trading volume.  That will frequently signal a bearish correction. 

[retiredat48]

Nov 24, 2024 14:19:28 GMT uncleharley said:

If one shifts their focus from stocks to bonds they get a mildly different story. For instance, the weekly chart for TLT (the 20 yr treasury) shows that this past weeks activities created a death cross by the 10/40 wk Ma, confirmed be a similar cross by the MACD, as well as a failed attempt by Captain Price to rise above a volume based resistance level. All of this on a light volume week. All of this implies to me that we have begun a bearish correction in interest rates that could last for the long term.

stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TLT&a=514945427&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p12064083774

Thanks...I occasionally trade TLT , about every couple years, when price gets to what seems like extremes, and reversing.  Seems we may be going back to at least 5% on Treasuries...my previous buy point.  (TLT will have fallen further).

R48

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. As of Wednesday's market close the barometer scores the S&P500 Index at the upper part of overvalued on it's scale with a reading of 68. Sentimate computes to +8, bullish.

For me, being fully invested within my asset allocation I am awaiting a pullback before I do any equity buying as I feel most stock valuations are extended at this time. If I was to put new money to work at this time it would be in my good equity dividend payers and also in my smid caps. But, they are at full allocation within my asset allocation.

I have been pondering discontinuing this thread at year end as I am feeling that it has lasted much longer that I intended when I began posting Old_Skeet's Barometer Report a few years back. I welcome your comments and will weigh them while I ponder the fate of the thread, whether to continue or discontinue.

Thank you for stopping by and reading.
Your past viewing and many comments contributing to the thread have been both welcomed and appreciated.

Wishing All ... A Happy Thanksgiving.

I am, Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

Wow! Due to age related health problems, I too will be reducing my participation in this and other forums. I have reached a point where I am no longer as effective as I once was at short term trading, consequently I have sold my leveraged positions and reinvested the proceeds in buy to hold positions in DMO and PFE. DMO because it has been performing well for me and PFE gives me an opportunity to bottom-fish near what might be the top of the market. It also pays a 6.5% dividend while I am waiting for its China investment to pay off. Thanks to all for your very valuable feedback. I intend to stick around, but my focus will or has changed.

[Capital]

Nov 28, 2024 13:11:41 GMT oldskeet said:

Hi guys. As of Wednesday's market close the barometer scores the S&P500 Index at the upper part of overvalued on it's scale with a reading of 68. Sentimate computes to +8, bullish.

For me, being fully invested within my asset allocation I am awaiting a pullback before I do any equity buying as I feel most stock valuations are extended at this time. If I was to put new money to work at this time it would be in my good equity dividend payers and also in my smid caps. But, they are at full allocation within my asset allocation.

I have been pondering discontinuing this thread at year end as I am feeling that it has lasted much longer that I intended when I began posting Old_Skeet's Barometer Report a few years back. I welcome your comments and will weigh them while I ponder the fate of the thread, whether to continue or discontinue.

Thank you for stopping by and reading.
Your past viewing and many comments contributing to the thread have been both welcomed and appreciated.

Wishing All ... A Happy Thanksgiving.

I am, Old_Skeet

oldskeet, I for one have greatly enjoyed this thread and have found your, as well as others, comments helpful, interesting and informative. If you decide to end this thread I will fully understand and respect that decision. I wish you and everyone else a happy Thanksgiving on this the 4th Thursday of November in the year 2024.

[retiredat48]

oldskeet,and uncleharley,...I find your info informative, and I enjoy your posts...

R48

[keppelbay]

oldskeet, uncleharley

please don't leave us all alone, out here in the cold...

[coptomist]

I don't post very often. However, I always read and appreciate your Old Skeet's Barometer Report. I respect whatever you decide to do, but will certainly miss your reports if you stop.

I too, would hate to be left out in the cold, lol!

[rhythmmethod]

oldskeet, I also enjoy your posts. Please do what is best for you. - ORM - Old Rhythm Method~!

[chang]

oldskeet, I always read your posts … hope you will continue.

[Mustang]

oldskeet, As most know the only trading I do is through dollar-cost-averaging into balanced funds. But, I always read your posts. Whatever you decide I wish you good luck.