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Post by oldskeet on Apr 12, 2021 11:59:49 GMT
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Admin note: this thread consolidates several previous threads into one. Thanks oldskeet !
Hi guys, This briefing is for the trading week ending April 9, 2021. I have decided since most of my investment activity centers around the 4th and 1st quarters to do a weekly recap during the 2nd and 3rd quarters over a daily briefing. In past years, I greatly reduced my investment activity around early spring and I would reopen my investment shop sometime around late summer to early fall. After traveling most of this past week I plan to continue to enjoy spring and summer putting my investing activity on a weekly review and action mode. Don't forget to maintain a buy list of investments you'd buy duning a market pullback. In this way, you can be proactive during a market swoon and will not have to scramble to decide what to buy. The Index Review The major market indices all finished up for the week ending April 9, 2021. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +1.95%. The S&P 500 Stock Index gained +2.71%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained +3.12%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was down -0.46% this week. For the week, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield closed at 1.66%, down a basis point, while the dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index was listed at 1.40%, down 5 basis points. Articles of Investment Interest S&P 500, Dow scale new heights, Treasury yields rise on strong inflation data www.reuters.com/article/global-markets-int-idUSKBN2BV39ZQ1 2021 Markets Summary: A Change in Leadership Across Stock and Bond Markets www.morningstar.com/articles/1032708/q1-2021-markets-summary-a-change-in-leadership-across-stock-and-bond-markets This is a M* article so if the link fails simply Google the article title and read through Google. War On Cash: The Next Phase Begins www.zerohedge.com/political/war-cash-next-phase-begins?Old_Skeet's Favorite Links The Futures ... finviz.com/futures.ashxPopular ETFs ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitorShort Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYBreadth Reading ... www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-3y-x-x-x/S&P 500 Charting, Elder Impluse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280 |
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Post by anitya on Apr 13, 2021 19:24:14 GMT
Hopefully, I am not soiling this pristine thread. I am copying a few tweets from Liz Ann Sonders - Schwab - twitter feed.
> 40 commodities & services subsector prices have advanced in excess of 2 standard deviations above average lately ... not just wood but also sheet metal, plastics & many more. @dataarbor @bls_gov
A decisive rolling over in call option activity … 20d moving average has reversed to ~21.3 million vs. extreme peak of 28 million in mid-February [but remember the norm for 10 years prior to 2020 was 10 million. So, I am not sure the current decrease from recent peak is enough cause for celebration.]
Valuation is a terrible market-timing tool; using S&P 500, there is very little (negative) correlation between forward P/Es & subsequent 1y returns w/ wide range of outcomes historically.
Flow update: risk-on sentiment persists with flows still focused on large caps, global & cyclical areas while investors move away from small caps & thematic strategies ... corporate bonds starting to gain some interest
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Post by anitya on Apr 14, 2021 19:08:31 GMT
Inflows to global stocks over past 5 months: $576 billion
Inflows to global stocks over prior 12 years: $452 billion
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 23, 2021 22:38:46 GMT
That is a lot of money.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 24, 2021 14:29:54 GMT
The S&P 500 was flat last week. The daily chart shows a loss of momentum and trading volume continued to edge down. Given those factors along with a blah market response to some decent earnings reports and seasonal factors, We can expect further consolidation in the days ahead.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2021 14:58:16 GMT
What does "Consolidation" mean here - is it - Markets will remain at the same levels or in narrow range?
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Post by anitya on Apr 24, 2021 16:53:18 GMT
oldskeet, Please return to your thread and post. I enjoy reading your posts - not to mention they are useful. I will not post in your thread if you prefer. A
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 24, 2021 17:17:02 GMT
Yes, based on the price and volume patterns for the S&P 500 in response to the dominant news, I expect the S&P to go sideways or trade in a relatively tight range. Fwiw, I raised some cash and paid off all margin on thurseday. My intent is to hold the cash until I see a buying opportunity. My expectation is that the opportunity may not show up until next fall. We shall see.
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 14, 2021 12:41:54 GMT
Look for Old_Skeet's Market Briefings to start appearing weekly on the Big Bang Investor Board starting Friday July 16th.
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 14, 2021 12:47:54 GMT
Okee, Dokee..
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Post by richardsok on Jul 14, 2021 14:45:13 GMT
Look for Old_Skeet's Market Briefings to start appearing weekly on the Big Bang Investor Board starting Friday July 16th. Looking forward to it. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 14, 2021 18:50:18 GMT
Look for Old_Skeet's Market Briefings to start appearing weekly on the Big Bang Investor Board starting Friday July 16th. Welcome back. Look forward to it. |
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 16, 2021 20:37:31 GMT
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Post by chang on Jul 17, 2021 1:51:35 GMT
While I don't necessarily believe anything M* says about valuations, it can make for interesting reading nonetheless. Interesting that they believe that - LC Core (Blend) is more overvalued than LC Growth
- MC/SC is more overvalued than LC
- Communications (including Google and FB) and Utilities are more undervalued/better buys than Health Care.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 17, 2021 2:00:39 GMT
Be aware that M* sector definitions differ from GICS sector definitions (from S&P, MSCI). M* uses its own definitions at its site while funds may use GICS definitions (Fido site, etc).
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Post by anitya on Jul 17, 2021 3:04:20 GMT
While I don't necessarily believe anything M* says about valuations, it can make for interesting reading nonetheless. Interesting that they believe that - LC Core (Blend) is more overvalued than LC Growth
- MC/SC is more overvalued than LC
- Communications (including Google and FB) and Utilities are more undervalued/better buys than Health Care.
I too am not a big fan of M* for many of my needs but let me offer a counterpoint for your consideration. Check out MOAT performance against LC blend (or even LC value) funds from the time of MOAT inception or from mid 2016 when MOAT refined its methodology. MOAT looks for undervalued moat stocks. |
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mrc
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Post by mrc on Jul 17, 2021 4:56:31 GMT
While I don't necessarily believe anything M* says about valuations, it can make for interesting reading nonetheless. Interesting that they believe that - LC Core (Blend) is more overvalued than LC Growth
- MC/SC is more overvalued than LC
- Communications (including Google and FB) and Utilities are more undervalued/better buys than Health Care.
I too am not a big fan of M* for many of my needs but let me offer a counterpoint for your consideration. Check out MOAT performance against LC blend (or even LC value) funds from the time of MOAT inception or from mid 2016 when MOAT refined its methodology. MOAT looks for undervalued moat stocks. I used to read M* analyst Mutual fund columns very keenly when I started visiting their site and joined forums in 2004/05, but stopped paying attention to them after a few years. After a long time, I started reading (skim through) again in the recent past. I bought VDIGX after their recommendation of it and wrote highly about its new manager then Donald J. Kilbride. It did not disappoint and still my largest holding. I am not sure if it is M* analysts or its forum members, but I brought ARTYX a few months after its inception after reading about it there (believing in good manager and a new fund combo). I bought AKREX also after reading M* analyst high opinion of Akre and his record at FBR focus, and it did not disappoint. There are a few other funds too that I brought after reading about them on M* |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 19, 2021 16:23:43 GMT
A midday monday update shows the major stock indexes including the Transports and utilities are continuing their march down. 5 & 10 Yr treasuries are flying up. The Forex mkt seems to be flat with the japanese yen rising a bit. We seem to be breaking out of some of the recent trading ranges today. I have not checked for relevant headlines yet.
EDIT: There was above average trading volume on the SPX, Transports, & Utes indicating we may have established a new trend which would be down. The lie is in the last 10 minutes of trading when buyers surged in and bought the dip. Tomorrow will tell us if those late buyers have it right or if we are in for a Taper tantrum like correction. The Euro was flat today while most industrial currencies gained strength against commodity dominated currencies. 5 & 10 yr treasuries rocked while rates plummeted. We'll find out later what the 2 yr did. It sometimes is more telling of the future.
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 20, 2021 11:46:59 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 20, 2021 13:17:01 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 20, 2021 14:21:34 GMT
Thanks for the link. I think I will just do some deep breathing for a few days. Maybe see how the week goes.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jul 20, 2021 17:01:08 GMT
I appreciate this and someone taking a strong position. However, as of today, buying the dip looks pretty good. Time will tell.
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Post by Chahta on Jul 20, 2021 17:58:05 GMT
Well, first of all it was about THIS dip. Secondly THIS dip was yesterday, 1 day too late for today. I have no idea but when was the last guestimate right? |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 20, 2021 20:08:23 GMT
There is no perfect right. There are only degrees of right or wrong.
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 23, 2021 20:39:33 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending July 23, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major market indices finished up setting new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +1.08%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose +1.96%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed +2.84%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gained +2.15%. The three best performing sectors for the week were communication services +3.56%, technology +2.99% and healthcare +2.38%. Year-to-date the three best performing sectors have been communication services +25.64%, energy +22.04% and real estate +18.92%. In comparison, the widely followed S&P 500 Index is up 17.46% with a current dividend yield of 1.31% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.28%. Articles of Investment Interest China to Release 170,000 Tonnes of Metals from State Reserves on July 29 www.reuters.com/article/china-metals-reserves-auction-idUSL1N2OX0J4This Technical Support Shows the Strength of the Buy-the-Dip Force in Markets www.marketwatch.com/story/this-technical-support-shows-the-strength-of-the-buy-the-dip-force-in-markets-11626863567Wall Street notches record closing high on earnings, economic strength www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN2ET11TFor those that might have issues connecting to articles I have found, at times, if one Goggles the article title then it can be read through Goggle; and, also one might try reading through an incognito pathway. Old_Skeet's Favored Links Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYComment: Notice that the short volume has declined as we move into earning season which gives me expectations we will see upward movement in the price line. Breadth Reading ... www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-3y-x-x-x/Comment: Notice that the breadth reading has been in decline since mid April with only a little more than 50% of the stocks trading above their 50 day moving average. Now that we are in 2nd quarter earning season if this percentage does not rise, to offer better support to the price line, then I'm thinking this could lead to a near term stock market pullback. S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280Comment: Below is a link that will provide details about the Elder Inpluse System and how it works. earnfo.com/elder-impulse-system/The Breadth Reading link above, from indexindicators, will soon become a subscription based site; and, with this taking place, will soon be replaced with another source . |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 23, 2021 20:57:07 GMT
One bullish item that is off the radar is Natural Gas. The continuous contract closed the week at a 2.5 yr high of $4.00 & has very little resistance on the way to $5. The rise should become parabolic when the heating season arrives.
Market breadth is worrisome.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 24, 2021 3:09:30 GMT
One bullish item that is off the radar is Natural Gas. The continuous contract closed the week at a 2.5 yr high of $4.00 & has very little resistance on the way to $5. The rise should become parabolic when the heating season arrives. Market breadth is worrisome. I have noticed same re nat gas prices...and wondering how much this will help MLPs fundamentally...and in stock prices. R48 |
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 24, 2021 12:11:54 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 24, 2021 12:25:01 GMT
uncleharley , retiredat48 , Hi guys, I like to look at graphs and charts more so than spreadsheets. finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=NGThe question. How much higher will natural gas go before it corrects? Has it been run up because of utilities using it to generate electricity because of hot weather to run air conditioning? Or is their a shortage of natural gas as it is a by product of oil production since oil production is soft at the moment resulting in a shrtage of natural gas? |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 24, 2021 12:25:39 GMT
One bullish item that is off the radar is Natural Gas. The continuous contract closed the week at a 2.5 yr high of $4.00 & has very little resistance on the way to $5. The rise should become parabolic when the heating season arrives. Market breadth is worrisome. I have noticed same re nat gas prices...and wondering how much this will help MLPs fundamentally...and in stock prices. R48
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