Old Skeet's Barometer Report

[chang]

EM and China had a good week as well, rising 3-5%.

[oldskeet]

Hi-Octane ...

I don't own this fund (BTCFX), which invest in Bitcoin futures, but it is one that I have begin to follow and I have on my watch list. For the week it is up +4.62% and for the rolling 30 day period it is up 33.23%.

For more details and comments about BTCFX follow this link.

big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/637/mutual-spotlight-btcfx-bitcoin-strategy

[oldskeet]

This briefing is for the week ending September 10, 2021.

The Index Review

For the week all the major market indices were down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -2.15%. The S&P 500 Stock Index declined -1.69%, the Nasdaq Composite lost -2.81% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was down -2.81%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were consumer cyclicals -0.85%, communication services -1.28%, and technology -1.56%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.30% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.34%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +18.70%.

Old_Skeet's Global Compass: This week, my three best performers in my global compass were EWJ (MSCI Japan) +1.39%, TLT (20+ Year US Treasuries) +0.15%, and GSP (GSCI Commodity T/R) +0.10%.

Articles of Investment Interest: It is getting difficult to find good articles of investment interest that are not hidden behind paywalls. Unless I come across something that I feel would be good reading I have choosen not to post marginal articles. Thus, this space could be, at times, without articles.

Mastercard Makes a Big Bet on Crypto, Buying Blockchain Analytics Start-up CipherTrace
www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/mastercard-to-buy-blockchain-analytics-start-up-ciphertrace.html

Investors Eye Wobbling Energy Sector As Gauge for Delta Fears
www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKBN2G61X9

A Blurb About Old_Skeets Portfolio

Old_Skeet now in the distribution phase of investing (age 73) runs an all weather asset allocation portfolio with asset weightings of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) and I can move up, or down, five percent in the bond area, in the stock area, or in both areas while letting cash float. I am presently at a neutral weighting while I await the next stock market pullback. Most likely, I will engage the stock market and overweight stocks through a special investment (spiff) position to play the rebound; and, then exit through a step sell process during the updaraft until I reach, or maintain, my desired asset allocation weighting. Generally, I rebalance at plus (or minus) two percent from my desired asset weighting. However, I can move from a low asset allocation weighting of 33% to a high asset allocation weighting of 47% in both the stock and bond areas, or some point in between, without having to do a force rebalance. At the low asset weighting (33% each) I could be as high as 34% cash and at the high asset weighting (47% each) I could be as low a 6% in cash. At first brush, what appeared to be a constrained portfolio does indeed afford for some good range in asset movement for positioning, based upon market reads, plus the portfolio generates a sufficient income stream which is important to me being retired.

Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SP
Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95096223931
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

Thanks for stopping by and reading ... and, I sincerely wish all "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

Excellant summary as usual. The item that I find especially telling is your daily SPY chart. SPY had 5 consecutive down days on ever increasing trading volume with the largest losses coming on the strongest trading days. That kind of chart could work its way into a waterfall. I'm not saying it will, just saying this is a time to be very watchful. BTW The feds basket of groceries went up 27% in august. The price of Groceries and oil are frequently ignored at the fed because they are so volatile over the short term but I have a tough time ignoring a Rib Eye steak that sells for $19.69 per Lb at my local store.

EDIT:  The U S PPI Index is up 8.3% from a yr ago.      www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/10/inflation-watch-us-producer-prices-surge-to-another-record

[uncleharley]

It was nice to get that bump up on SPY yesterday, but the 1 hr chart is back to looking like a potential waterfall this morn.

[oldskeet]

Hi uncleharley,

I'm looking for sideways to down for the S&P 500 Index until be get towards the middle to end of October with a few throw back days somewhere in between. Remember, 3Q21 earning season does not start until October 21st. If a pullback does not come then it will be back to buying around the edges, for me, come November and December with excess income (cash) generation form within my portfolio.

[uncleharley]

Will you be buying more of what you have or perhaps sliding in a somewaht different direction?

[oldskeet]

Hi uncleharley ,

Thank you for your question. "Will you be buying more of what you have or perhaps sliding in a somewaht different direction?"

I have a couple of buy options on the table that I'm pondering.

The first one is to open a spiff position in an equally weighted S&P 100 Index Fund, that rebalances quarterly, which I am pretty close to doing as of market close today it is -4.6% off it's 52 week high. I am awaiting it being off 5% or better from its 52 week high before I open the 1st buy step. The breadth reading now has a bearish tilt, as I write, with 52% of the stocks in the Index trading below their 50 day moving average. I'm thinking with the 2022 earnings outlook for the S&P 500 Index being in the 220's to open a special investment position to play an anticipated fall stock market pullback then a 4Q2021 rebound and continue with the spiff as the seasonal trend generally moves upward and runs through the winter months on and into spring.  Best to start positioning now or in the near term by Halloween.

The second option is to add to existing equity income funds that are on my buy list in which I have been buying around the edges of late. These are good dividend paying equity income funds that kick off qualified dividends, with their dividend yields being better than 3%, that are on my buy list. Currently, I have two sleeves of these funds. One being my domestic equity income fund sleeve and the other being my global equity income fund sleeve. Combined I hold seven funds in these two sleeves for a combined portfolio weighting of about 15% which accounts for about half of my growth & income area. The other half are in hybrid type funds, both domestic and global, which I plan to expand as well over expanding the footprint of my income sleeve.

My third option is to do some form of both option 1 and 2.  But, first the stars have to align for me to engage my options.

[uncleharley]

I too am "awaiting for the Stars to allign properly". I agree that the next earnings reports are very important, but I worry that inflation news may overwhelm all other factors. It is possible that I should get back to watching data rather than listening to noise. LOL

[oldskeet]

This briefing is for the week ending September 17, 2021.

The Index Review

For the second week in a row all but one of the major market indices finished down. It was the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -0.07%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -0.57%, the Nasdaq Composite lost -0.47% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was up +0.42%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were energy +2.37%, consumer cyclical 0.00%, and health care -0.17%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.31% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.37%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +18.02%. The big question. Will the past two down weeks in stocks turn into a selling stampede?

Old_Skeet's Global Equity Compass: This week, my three best performers in my global compass were EWJ (MSCI Japan) +0.85%, RSV (Russia) +0.70%, and RUT (Russell 2000 Index) +0.42%.

Old_Skeet's Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+ Yr US Tres) +0.52%, HYG (High Yield Corp.) +0.19%, and LQD (Investment Grade Corp) +0.07%.

Articles of Investment Interest

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now.
www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840

Is It Time to Buy the Monthly Dip?
www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-time-buy-monthly-cycle-dip?

A Blurb on Old_Skeet's Portfolio

Today, September 17th being tripple witching day, I opened my first "spiff" buy step to start my seasonal special investment position. Generally, I will load equites coming into fall, hold them during the winter, and then exit the position as spring arrives moving sell proceeds into either bond funds, cash or some of both. This is a strategy that I learned from my late father back in the 1970's as I became a more achmpolished investor. Through the years most spiffs have been beneficial for me with positive returns, but not always. Click on the link to learn more about the strategy. www.kiplinger.com/investing/602700/sell-in-may-and-go-away-here-we-go-again

Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95096223931
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

Thanks for stopping by and reading. I sincerely wish all ... "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet

[rhythmmethod]

oldskeet, The man. I appreciate your views and explanations. - RM

[uncleharley]

Thank You for a very useful post. The Rueters link leads to an article that doesn't seem to have much to do with the taper timeline. A personal observation of the feds current activities is that they are currently reviewing their ethics protocal rather than working on a taper timeline. I cannot help but think of Nero fiddeling while Rome was burning. [just a personal thought].

[oldskeet]

Hi uncleharley ,

I generally check all links once I make post. However, it seems something went whack-a-roo with this one. Therefore, the article was removed. Thanks for the heads up. Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

Today the 5 yr treasurey rate rose to a 3 month high, while the ten yr rate is very close to a 3 month high. It can be argued that the 10 yr has confirmed a bullish break out of a triangle or pennant pattern. So the question seems to be, who is selling treasuries?? Evergrande perhaps? They have some bills to pay.  Reportedly they have a portfolio of U S treasuries and MBS.  I have no way of knowing how large that portfolio might be.

[FD1000]

Sept 23, 2021 20:31:04 GMT uncleharley said:

Today the 5 yr treasurey rate rose to a 3 month high, while the ten yr rate is very close to a 3 month high. It can be argued that the 10 yr has confirmed a bullish break out of a triangle or pennant pattern. So the question seems to be, who is selling treasuries?? Evergrande perhaps? They have some bills to pay.  Reportedly they have a portfolio of U S treasuries and MBS.  I have no way of knowing how large that portfolio might be.

Looks pretty simple to me. The Federal Reserve signaled they would likely start pulling back on its monetary stimulus in November. I follow the 10 years treasury for years, and it doesn't work well with T/A because the Fed has control over it.

[oldskeet]

This briefing is for the week ending September 24, 2021.

The Index Review

For the week all the major market indices finished up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed +0.62%. the S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.51%, the Nasdaq Composite rose +0.02% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index was up +0.52%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were energy +3.61%, financial +1.41%, and industrials -0.71%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.30% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.45%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +18.62%. For me, the question is what will stocks do over the coming weeks until earning season (reporting) begins on October 14, 2021?

Old_Skeet's Global Equity Compass: This week, my three best performers in my global compass were INDA (India MSCI Ishare etf) +1.26%, DIA (Dow Industrials Spider etf) +0.65%, and WEU (United Kingdom MSCI etf) +0.65%.

Old_Skeet's Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were HYG (High Yield Corp.) -0.10%, SHY (1-3 Year US Treasuries) -0.10% and LQD (Investment Grade Corp) -0.21%.

Old_Skeet's Portfolio Activity

During the week Old_Skeet made his second spiff step buy.  I have now made two equally weighted spiff buy steps at S&P 500 Index readings of 4433 & 4354 for a gain of 1.4% as of Friday's market close (4455).  These spiff buys will open my fall seasonal investment strategy where I usually load equities coming into the fall, hold them through the winter months and then start ot lighten up coming out of winter and moving into spring.  I have found that the strategy does not work every year but has worked more times than not.  I generally limit the strategy to no more than five percent of my portfolio.

Articles of Investment Interest

Three Key Takeaways from the Fed Meeting
www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-key-takeaways-fed-meeting?

Fed's Coming Taper Fans Talk of Renewed 'Reflation' Trade
www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKBN2GK214

The European Energy Crisis Is About to Go Global
www.zerohedge.com/energy/european-energy-crisis-about-go-global?

Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

[uncleharley]

Another minor piece of charting for last week is the daily chart for the ten yr treasurey rate. The support for its bounce is a confluence of the 20, 50, & 200 demas as well as a trend line. The rate closed on friday above its upper Bollinger Band.  The strength of that support and move indicates that the 10 yr rate is unlikely to come back for some time to come. It is highly probable that treasurey rates have just begun a new trend up. Possibly to an historical mean.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=M&b=2&g=0&id=p50699463271&a=575644004&listNum=86

[uncleharley]

FWIW; Overnight trading and the futures market indicate the next stop for the 10 yr tresurey rate is in the 3% area. Goldman is forecasting $90 oil for WTIC. Perhaps we should call these turns "Challenges & Opportunities" rather than gloom & doom.

[yogibearbull]

uncleharley, 10-yr was above 3% only in late-2018 (not that long ago) and SP500 then was around 3,000. If headed there, it may not be in a straight line. And don't forget the Fed.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61461414822

[uncleharley]

Sept 28, 2021 13:43:54 GMT yogibearbull said:

uncleharley , 10-yr was above 3% only in late-2018 (not that long ago) and SP500 then was around 3,000. If headed there, it may not be in a straight line. And don't forget the Fed.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61461414822

Agreed.

[oldskeet]

This briefing is for the week ending October 1, 2021.

The Index Review

For the week all the major market indices finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -1.36%. the S&P 500 Stock Index lost -2.21%, the Nasdaq Composite gave back -3.20% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index fell a mere -0.29%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were energy +4.78%, financial -0.30%, and materials -0.81%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.33% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.46%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +16.0%. For me, the question is what will stocks do over the coming couple of weeks until earning season begins?

Old_Skeet's Global Equity Compass: This week, my three best performers in my global compass were FXI (China) +0.99%, RSX (Russia) +0.96% and BKF (BRIC) +0.08%.

Old_Skeet's Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were SHY (1-3 Year US Treasuries) +0.09%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasuries) -0.09% and AGG (US Aggergrate Bond) -0.36%.

Articles of Investment Interest

Bruised Market Eyes Treasury Yields to Gauge Stocks' Path
www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKBN2GR4NH

A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Since, I have bought equity step buy positons during the last couple weeks opening my fall equity spiff position this was watch the action week for me collecting my month and quarter end mutual fund distributions, building cash.

Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

Thanks for stopping by and reading.

I sincerely wish all ... "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet

[Deleted]

Thank you!

[uncleharley]

This will not help us to foretell the upcoming earnings reports however I find it interesting the Mtg rate have begun to creep up. The 30 yr fixed interest mtg rate as reported by Freddie Mac is up 1/4% over the past few weeks. www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ This will likely have little immediate affect on the housing market but I always like to watch the turns.

[uncleharley]

Given the fact that economic growth has been strong in the current qtr, earnings for that qtr should also be strong. The markets reaction to those earnings could have some surprises because of inflation and higher interest rate expectations for the next few qtrs. Since the stock market tends to be a forward looking instrument, the prospect of rising interest rates in the foreseeable future could or should have an effect on the valuation of the financial sector. Ongoing inflation in commodities might have a negative effect the earnings of the users of those commodities such as the Chemical sector.  Just speculating.

[uncleharley]

The open makes things look like a tough day for Wall street. The only things going up are the USD & treasurey rates. Utilities might be, maybe, possibly consolidating at current level. Gold & Silver are desperate for a hug.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys, Thanks for making comment. Thus far this week I have just sat and watched. I'll need to see at least another 3% to 4% come off the S&P 500 Index for me to make a double weight spiff step buy. Otherwise, to build the spiff, I will start an average in process towards the end of October and on into November.

[oldskeet]

This briefing is for the week ending October 8, 2021.

The Index Review

For the week the major market indices finished the week mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +1.22%. the S&P 500 Stock Index added +0.79%, the Nasdaq Composite was up a mere +0.09% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gave back -0.38%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were energy +4.69%, financials +1.94%, and materials +1.48%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.32% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.61%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +16.9%.

Old_Skeet's Global Equity Compass: This week, my three best performers in my global compass were RSX (Russia) +5.16%, FXI (China) +3.44%, and BKF (BRIC) +2.35%.

Old_Skeet's Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were SHY (1-3 Year US Treasuries) -0.14%, HYG (Corporate High Yield) -0.74% and AGG (US Aggergrate Bond) -0.76%.

A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Since, I have bought equity step buy positons during September, starting my fall equity spiff position early, this was another watch the action week with no buys being made since the S&P500 Index still trends about 5% off it's 52 week high. Should the Index pullback in the eight to ten percent range during the next couple of weeks I will most likely make a double weight spiff step buy. If not, then around the end of October, I will begin to average in during the 4th quarter based upon market movement.

Taken From An Investment Atricle of Interest

This quote was taken from a recent CWS Market Review newsletter titled "Dividends Are Back." Since, I am an income investor with growth as a secondary goal stock dividends are a big part of my portfolio's income stream.  This newsletter's comment spoke volumes to me. It reads. "Another sign of the market returning to normal is the growth of dividends. I’ve been very happy to see this. We just got the Q3 numbers, and the companies in the S&P 500 paid out $15.36 per share in dividends. (I should explain that that’s the index-adjusted number. Roughly, every one point in the S&P 500 is worth about $8.5 billion.)  The good news about that $15.36 per share number is that it’s a 10% increase over last year’s Q3. That comes after three quarters of dividends being cut and two more quarters of very slight increases to dividends. Very close to being flat. The S&P 500 finally eclipsed its previous dividend record of $15.32 per share from the first quarter of 2020."

Article of Investment Interest

Wall St Week Ahead: Energy Price Spike Adds Market Risk As Earnings Arrive
www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKBN2GY2AY

Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
Breadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

Thanks for stopping by and reading.

I sincerely wish all "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

That is great news about the dividends. Keep them coming.. I recieved this newsletter in my e mail yesterday and thought it might be of interest to those who like to invest in the near future; www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/?utm_source=McClellan+Chart+In+Focus&utm_campaign=5c375e40c8-email_cif_2021-10-08_oils_leading_indication_for_y&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9e79f8200f-5c375e40c8-151474565

Tom McClellan demonstrates the relationship between the price of oil and treasurey rates. It is worth ones time to read the entire article but the summary is that the price of oil leads treasurey rates by about one month. The current spike in oil prices is telling us that 10 yr treasurey rates will be at 2 yr highs in about 1 month. That would seem to give a headwind to stocks or perhaps nuetralize any happy talk associated with decent earnings.

[uncleharley]

Apparently there are a number of people that are coming to the realization that our current inflation may be persistant rather than transitory. That may be driving the value of the USD down and commodities, including precious metals, up. www.reuters.com/breakingviews/powells-inflation-albatross-grows-heavier-2021-10-13/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2IGtfykt-_raRBId6oqfvmHLD4n_vzNdafZGNcEKcaoT4m0mvi8Yq4ZKI

[FD1000]

Oct 13, 2021 20:49:58 GMT uncleharley said:

Apparently there are a number of people that are coming to the realization that our current inflation may be persistant rather than transitory. That may be driving the value of the USD down and commodities, including precious metals, up. www.reuters.com/breakingviews/powells-inflation-albatross-grows-heavier-2021-10-13/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2IGtfykt-_raRBId6oqfvmHLD4n_vzNdafZGNcEKcaoT4m0mvi8Yq4ZKI

Below are 2 charts.  UUP is up for the year.  USD/EUR is up for year.
I don't want to get too much into politics, but our current Gov is not managing the situation well and partly to blame.

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