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Post by oldskeet on Jul 24, 2021 12:33:05 GMT
Hi unclecharley, Old_Skeet's charting of $AMZ. schrts.co/EzuMzdjPI'm seeing what you mean ... |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 24, 2021 12:35:12 GMT
uncleharley , retiredat48 , Hi guys, I like to look at graphs and charts more so than spreadsheets. finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=NGThe question. How much higher will natural gas go before it corrects? Has it been run up because of utilities using it to generate electricity because of hot weather to run air conditioning? Or is their a shortage of natural gas as it is a by product of oil production since oil production is soft at the moment resulting in a shrtage of natural gas? There are probably a number of factors driving this rally including increased use by Electric utilities as well as increased exports as LNG plants have come on line. A growing economy which uses more chemicals is another major factor. The long term chart indicates that a triple in the price of NG is not out of the question. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=M&b=3&g=0&id=p33028649050&a=985274319&listNum=86 |
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 30, 2021 22:37:56 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending July 30, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major market indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -0.36%. The S&P 500 Stock Index was down -0.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell -1.11%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gained +0.75%. The three best performing sectors for the week were materials +3.05%, energy +1.75% and industrials +0.22%. For the month the three best performing sectors were materials +2.54%, utilities +2.45% and technology +2.37%. Year-to-date the three best sectors have been energy +24.09%, communication services +23.83% and financial +18.29%. For the month the S&P 500 Index was up +0.99% and year-to-date it is up +17.02%. It's current dividend yield is 1.32% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield was listed at 1.23%. Articles of Investment Interest How to Invest if Inflation Surges www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2021/06/01/how-to-invest-if-inflation-surges/World stocks on course for sixth month of gains, dollar near 1-mth low www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN2F008VFed's Powell bets economy will navigate new coronavirus surge www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-fed-idUSKBN2F01C1For those that might have issues connecting to articles I have found, at times, if one Goggles the article title then it can be read through Goggle; and, also one might try reading through an incognito pathway. Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPBreadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95096223931S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280Thanks for stopping by and reading ... and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet |
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 31, 2021 15:39:15 GMT
The crossover of the moving averages for market breadth from a couple weeks ago seems to be rather bearish since the last time such a crossover occured was 2/20. According to my spx chart momentum may have peaked also. How do you feel about all of that?
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 1, 2021 0:28:41 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 1, 2021 1:12:51 GMT
Wow! That chart tells a story if you set it up for 3 yrs instead of a month. Since market breadth, market valuations, momentum, & trading volume are all bearish, my thought is that old captain price is the deviant and is the one that will correct to the consensus. Edit; OIL & UNG are bullish. |
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 7, 2021 8:58:05 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending August 6, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major market indices finished up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added +0.78%. The S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.94%, while the Nasdaq Composite was up +1.11%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gained +0.94%. The three best performing sectors for the week were financials +2.49%, utilities +1.92% and technology +1.52%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.30% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.30% as well. Articles of Investment Interest Goldman Boosts S&P 500 Target on Earnings Growth, Low Rates www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/goldman-becomes-s-p-500-s-biggest-bull-after-a-target-upgradeWith Portfolio Diversification, Can There Be Too Much of a Good Thing? www.barrons.com/advisor/articles/with-portfolio-diversification-can-there-be-too-much-of-a-good-thing-51627586786?refsec=mutual-fundsThe Era of Cheap Natural Gas Ends as Prices Surge by 1,000% www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-06/the-era-of-cheap-natural-gas-ends-as-prices-surge-by-1-000For those that might have issues connecting to articles I have found, at times, if one Goggles the article title then it can be read through Goggle; and, also one might try reading through an incognito pathway. Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPBreadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95096223931S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280Thanks for stopping by and reading ... and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet Trailing comment: Call of the Week goes to uncleharley for his recent call on natural gas. |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 7, 2021 12:38:37 GMT
The price of Silver, on an intermediate term, weekly chart, has settled into a consolidation pattern known as a pennant on a flagpole. It will take some weeks, possibly 2 or 3 months, to complete the pennant pattern and execute a breakout. According to John Murphies "Charting Made Easy", at Stockcharts School, the breakout after complettion projects a further rise in the price of Silver to the $40/$45 range. Obviously there is no rush to get into silver at this time unless one is a patient investor and wants to buy at the bottom of the pattern. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p56245556047&a=417924787&listNum=86 |
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 7, 2021 12:51:04 GMT
Barron's sees $24 as good price to accumulate silver. Looks decent support until broken  . |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 7, 2021 16:49:34 GMT
Back to Bloombergs article on N G; The intermediate term, weekly chart for Nat Gas shows that over the past 2 yrs a cup pattern has been in the process of being formed. The lip of the cup is at $4.9, the current price is $4.15. The current rise is rather steep so we will probably reach the lip price by the end of this yr. Normally a handle will form on a cup pattern at that point, but since that is also the first 1/2 of the heating season, I have my doubts that we will get the usual consolidation/correction that will be needed to form a handle on the cup. The price of Nat Gas has the potential of blowing right past The $4.9/$5.00 level this season and move up to the last peak of $15.48 which was reached in 2005. Of course the odds of getting to $15.50 from 4.15 in a straight line are somewhere between fat and slim, but the ride should be fun. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p52421360068&a=448479304&listNum=86 |
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Post by anitya on Aug 7, 2021 20:54:03 GMT
"Goldman Boosts S&P 500 Target [to 4,700] on Earnings Growth, Low Rates."
Last week, BofA reiterated their year-end target at 3,800.
I guess we will have to wait for another 4-5 months to find out.
Better to just stay with the plan and not feel FOMO.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 7, 2021 21:10:16 GMT
I could see 3800 again, sometime this yr. 4700 is about 300 points away. Based on those 2 projections, expectations are rather low. Most dividend payers would pay better to yr end.
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 8, 2021 7:33:46 GMT
Hi guys, I am not sure what the S&P 500 will make on a high water mark this year. Earnings are expected to improve into the high 190's by end of year. Years back it use to get touted that a forward p/e multiple of 20 was plenty. Now, with next to nothing interest rates and all the stimlus money that the Fed has injected into the system I'm going to say a forward p/e multiple of around 25 might be justified. If so, then on a low earnings number in the 190's would put the S&P 500 Index around 4,750; and, a high earnings number in the 190's would put it close to 5,000. All of this is Old_Skeet's swag (scientific wild ass guess). For me the market is pricey and I am buying very little and this comes from excess income generation of what my portfolio generates beyong what my distribution needs are now being retired. With this, I am operating from my all weather asset allocation of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) and staying pretty well balanced at plus (or minus) 2% of these weightings for my stock and bond allocations while I let cash float. Here is what Advisor Perspectives has published about the S&P 500's valuation. www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/08/03/p-e10-july-2020-update |
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Post by anitya on Aug 8, 2021 8:33:52 GMT
I will take the 4,700 (will not reduce equities) and will also take 3,800 (will add to equities). No preference for either number.
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Post by anitya on Aug 8, 2021 8:40:28 GMT
You might also like this - youtu.be/AmjU7Yr6AXYi am not looking for comments. I do not agree with a few things he says but he has a different way of looking at the world, which is fine with me. |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 8, 2021 12:16:50 GMT
3700 to 4800 is about 22%. That could be tradable correction.
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 8, 2021 17:25:37 GMT
In April, uncleharley posted to this thread that it was his impression that the market is trading sideways. After reading oldskeet advisor perspectives link.. it reinforces the market is at all times high P/E and then there’s this post on Marketwatch on.mktw.net/3xuxgTZ which speaks to SPY trading sideways and perhaps Value is the place to be. At least that was my takeway. I haven’t actioned anything yet. Still almost fully invested in the same funds but keeping a watchful eye. It’s just near a fools errand to time the market or think you can but ignorant to ignore signs as well. Hmmm |
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 13, 2021 22:55:03 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 14, 2021 16:37:12 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 15, 2021 13:06:50 GMT
Hi uncleharley, Now that we have moved into August volumes are indeed down on SPY from where they normally are. However, some of the other metrics that I follow have improved. One being the breadth reading which has moved upward from the mid 50% range to just short of 70% for stocks trading above their 50 day moving average. Another one is MFI which over the past two weeks has move on its scale from 50 range to the mid 70's range. So, even though trading volume has been low there has been some indicator improvement from my perspective. Hopefully, when we get past Labor Day Holiday trading volumes will began to improve. OS
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 15, 2021 13:42:58 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending August 13, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major market indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added +0.87%. The S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.71%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined -0.09%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -1.10%. The three best performing sectors for the week were materials +1.68%, consumer defensive +1.58% and utilities +1.13%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.30% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.29%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +18.95%. Articles of Investment Interest How 10 of the World’s Smartest Investors Can Help You Build Your Perfect Portfolio www.marketwatch.com/story/how-10-of-the-worlds-smartest-investors-can-help-you-build-your-perfect-portfolio-11628177690FD: Bogle & Buffet make sense using the SP500 as your largest holding
Shiller: widely diversified = failed since 2009(12 years). Investing based on Shiller’s CAPE ratio = failed, if you reduced your % in the SP500 and increased in other countries you made less money and it's going on for 10 years. Siegel: Stocks are better than bonds LT = duh. For fixed-income investments, consider TIPS = wrong, they were terrible in the last 10 years. Ellis: use low ER index funds = correct but Bogle said it much earlier. You can't claim it as your own. How Much Has the Market Benefited from Multiple Expansion? www.morningstar.com/articles/1052552/how-much-has-the-market-benefited-from-multiple-expansionThe Cycle Is Shifting From Expansion To Slowdown: How To Trade It www.zerohedge.com/markets/cycle-shifting-expansion-slowdown-how-trade-it?FD: Finding the perfect time to switch between economic cycles sounds easy but in reality it's difficult to accomplish, after all the SP500 beats most funds LT
Call of the Week This Canary in the Coal Mine Shows a 10% S&P 500 Correction Is Getting Closer. Play Defense, Say Strategists. www.marketwatch.com/story/this-canary-in-the-coal-mine-shows-a-10-s-p-500-correction-is-getting-closer-play-defense-say-strategists-11628681464FD: this type of articles come up weekly and keep being wrong, no one knows when the next correction will be. If you sit on the sideline you may miss the next 20% and then the market goes down 10% and you get in while you are 10 % behind.Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionT/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading ... and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet OS, pretty good and interesting articles, my cloudy crystal ball says...the SP500 can go up more, sideways or down starting next week or months to come. BTW, SP500 volume doesn't forecast well the next move. I can easily show lower volumes while the index moves higher. Attachments:
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 16, 2021 11:12:44 GMT
Hi FD1000,
Thanks for making comment on the briefing. As you and others know it is the different perspectives that make the market and how portfolios get positioned. I am sure some deeply favor your comments and some will take issue with them because they see things under a different light. For me that is ok. I post the briefing to bring different perspectives forward, for thinking purposes, because it gets me to pondering about different investment strategies and comments from others that I might not be seeing.
I enjoy reading your comments and what you are doing as I learn about your style of investing although different from my own.
Thanks again for making comment.
Old_Skeet
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 20, 2021 22:38:26 GMT
This briefing is for the week ending August 20, 2021. The Index Review For the week the major market indices finished down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -1.11%. The S&P 500 Stock Index lost -0.59%, while the Nasdaq Composite gave back -0.73%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -2.50%. The three best performing sectors for the week were utilities +1.17%, healthcare +0.89% and technology -0.44%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.30% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield is listed at 1.26%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +18.25%. Articles of Investment Interest Wall Street rallies as Fed jitters wane, but ends down for the week www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN2FL16GLabor Day has been a turning point in markets the last three years. Here’s what one strategist sees happening next. www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chase-for-the-end-of-the-year-is-about-to-start-this-strategist-says-heres-what-may-happen-next-11629283826The reflation trade is fading. Here’s what to avoid, and where to seek refuge, in commodities. www.marketwatch.com/story/the-reflation-trade-is-fading-heres-what-to-avoid-and-where-to-seek-refuge-in-commodities-11629457036Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYBreadth Reading ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95096223931S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinionT/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinionThanks for stopping by and reading ... and, I wish all "Good Investing." Old_Skeet |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 21, 2021 11:49:26 GMT
Good Morning and Thank You for the weekly review. I am developing an increased appreciation for market breadth and short volume as market indicators. In the past I have relyed on momentum and trading volume to help define what price is really doing. Adding breadth and short volume to the stable of indicators has made me just a little more bullish at this time. That does not make me bullish on stocks at this time, but my thinking is that we are more likely to see a consolidation pattern over the next few weeks rather than a correction. Seeing Utilities outperform the broader market is also quite telling of where the market in general may be headed. oldskeet, |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 26, 2021 12:50:02 GMT
I moved my first line of support on the S&P 500 to 4400 this morn. I expect nothing new from the Jackson Hole meeting today, Covid is still advancing, & The evacuation of Afganistan has begun to wind down. Market wise, the strength of the USD is providing a headwind to many commodities.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 26, 2021 13:02:52 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 27, 2021 8:08:04 GMT
uncleharley , yogibearbull and others, Sorry for the delay in responding to comments as I have had some pressing things that took me away from the board. For me, it seems that we are now in a trading range since a recent new high has been established in the major Indexes (Nasdaq, S&P 500 & DOW) we will trade range bound for a while. I'm not looking for a big breakout as there are just too many potential headwinds that will most likely keep a cap on the market from C19-Delta, Afghanistan Exit, Fed Taper, a Divided Congress, Inflation, Etc. With the above being written, I remain invested within the confines of my asset allocation (20/40/40) and building cash while I await the next dip before I buy around the edges within my portfolio. Although, my portfolio is growing in size I am maintaing my asset allocation within + (or -) two percent from its neutral weighting. When equities have a strong run, in which they have had thus far this year, this forces me to buy on the income side to maintain my asset allocation weightings. Perhaps, bonds will show some strength when equities dip. I find it interesting to follow the movement in the Quick T/A links for AGG (bonds) & SPY (stocks). Form this review it looks, to me, stocks remain the asset of choice with a strong buy rating. Since, bonds are now out of favor with a low buy rating perhaps this is a good time to buy if needed to maintain portfolio allocation weightings with me being an asset allocator. But, wait ... It's Taper Time! Or, is it? Look for articles that center around the above to follow in this weekend's briefing. And ... so it goes. Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 27, 2021 16:25:18 GMT
"But, wait ... It Taper Time! Or, is it?"
The Fed chair says it is time. He expects to begin tapering this yr. He still claims inflation is temporary and will decline thru some kind of natural process.
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Post by yogibearbull on Aug 27, 2021 16:34:56 GMT
Probably QE-mortgages will taper first or more than QE-Treasuries.
Inflation going down only means prices stop going up (not fall). Inflation is rate of change in prices.
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 27, 2021 21:57:53 GMT
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