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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 27, 2021 22:06:44 GMT
oldskeet, Thanks for posting this! A lot of usable info in one place!
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 28, 2021 11:35:38 GMT
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Post by chang on Aug 28, 2021 21:53:52 GMT
Is that a complicated way of saying "watch out?" I can't explain why, but I'm nervous. I guess it's just markets hitting all-time highs when the planet seems to be collapsing into a black hole. This coming week I am going to be consider shedding equity exposure. Probably me making the wrong decision for a bad reason, again, but I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 28, 2021 22:38:43 GMT
Is that a complicated way of saying "watch out?" I can't explain why, but I'm nervous. I guess it's just markets hitting all-time highs when the planet seems to be collapsing into a black hole. This coming week I am going to be consider shedding equity exposure. Probably me making the wrong decision for a bad reason, again, but I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution. I'm pretty sure I never lost any money taking a profit. |
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Post by Chahta on Aug 29, 2021 0:11:11 GMT
My problem is what to do after taking a profit. I could wait for the correction coming but that sounds like a timer or trader. I have to admit I sold my HY muni fund. ๐ณ
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 29, 2021 0:17:29 GMT
My problem is what to do after taking a profit. I could wait for the correction coming but that sounds like a timer or trader. I have to admit I sold my HY muni fund. ๐ณ Therein is the dilemma. I'm staying put, still taking in some cash from work and nibbling at dips. |
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Post by fishingrod on Aug 29, 2021 0:33:24 GMT
I am also holding put. Never want much more than 10% "ready cash" and everything else is on compound. In time, It will all come out in the wash.
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Post by richardsok on Aug 29, 2021 0:47:16 GMT
Is that a complicated way of saying "watch out?" I can't explain why, but I'm nervous. I guess it's just markets hitting all-time highs when the planet seems to be collapsing into a black hole. This coming week I am going to be consider shedding equity exposure. Probably me making the wrong decision for a bad reason, again, but I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution. I too am WAY cautious with over half my assets sitting in cash or near-cash. So with so much fretting in the air, maybe it's a good moment for the ol' WIIW question. (What If I'm Wrong). Over on ZeroHedge.com I read great numbers of GoldSachs clients are posed for bear mkt -- but the article asks, what if the market CLIMBS after Labor Day? All those shorts will ... buy into a massive short squeeze?? Here's the start of the article: "A Meltup From Here Would Be Most Painful": Goldman's Sentiment Indicator Hits Lowest Level In 63 Weeks BY TYLER DURDEN FRIDAY, AUG 27, 2021 - 02:22 PM In his latest weekly Tactical Fund Flow note, Goldman flow trader Scott Rubner writes that "the number #1 incoming question to hit my desk this weekend: "What happens if we return from Labor day holiday and there is a MELT-up, not MELT-down." Why is this the most pressing question among Goldman clients? Simple: most of them are positioned bearishly, and as Goldman reveals, the bank's sentiment indicator just hit the lowest level in 63 weeks, meaning continued upside will lead to even more institutional and hedge fund pain, coupled with even more short squeezes. The thread below from Rubner explain why the market's relentless meltup is now steamrolling countless funds who were certain there would be a correction by now |
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 29, 2021 1:01:44 GMT
Is that a complicated way of saying "watch out?" I can't explain why, but I'm nervous. I guess it's just markets hitting all-time highs when the planet seems to be collapsing into a black hole. This coming week I am going to be consider shedding equity exposure. Probably me making the wrong decision for a bad reason, again, but I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution. I am not a buyer at this point, nor am I a seller. However I will be watching closely for anything that has a negative affect on the market. I do expect a correction in the broader market sometime this fall, but I do not know how big or when. If the USD continues it's ralley, precious metals and other globally priced commodities will decline further in value. Forex trading on Monday or tuesday should complete that story. Right now my charts do not indicate a major correction in the broader domestic stock markets is imminent. IMHO taper talk & economic stats are the market movers at this time. Covid, war, & political news seems to have no effect on stock prices. EDIT; Old Skeets short volume indicator looks rather tame at this time. nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY |
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Post by Chahta on Aug 29, 2021 1:50:00 GMT
Is that a complicated way of saying "watch out?" I can't explain why, but I'm nervous. I guess it's just markets hitting all-time highs when the planet seems to be collapsing into a black hole. This coming week I am going to be consider shedding equity exposure. Probably me making the wrong decision for a bad reason, again, but I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution. ย ย ย I too am WAY cautious with over half my assets sitting in cash or near-cash.ย ย So with so much fretting in the air, maybe it's a good moment for the ol' WIIW question.ย ย (What If I'm Wrong). ย ย ย Over on ZeroHedge.com I read great numbers of GoldSachs clients are posed for bear mkt -- but the article asks, what if the market CLIMBS after Labor Day?ย ย All those shorts will ... buy into a massive short squeeze??ย ย ย Here's the start of the article: "A Meltup From Here Would Be Most Painful": Goldman's Sentiment Indicator Hits Lowest Level In 63 Weeks BY TYLER DURDENย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย FRIDAY, AUG 27, 2021 - 02:22 PM In his latest weekly Tactical Fund Flow note, Goldman flow trader Scott Rubner writes that "the number #1 incoming question to hit my desk this weekend: "What happens if we return from Labor day holiday and there is a MELT-up, not MELT-down." Why is this the most pressing question among Goldman clients? Simple: most of them are positioned bearishly, and as Goldman reveals, the bank's sentiment indicator just hit the lowest level in 63 weeks, meaning continued upside will lead to even more institutional and hedge fund pain, coupled with even more short squeezes. The thread below from Rubner explain why the market's relentless meltup is now steamrolling countless funds who were certain there would be a correction by now I can never be too wrong. There is a portion if my port (index ETFs and some bond funds) I wonโt sell. |
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 29, 2021 12:33:47 GMT
Hi guys, In the past when my equity allocation reached its upper limit within my asset allocation I trimmed equity in upward market movement. This last go round, though, I have been buying on the fixed side of my portfolio with excess portfolio cash generation to keep my asset allocation on bubble. Now, that fixed income is paying so little ... I'm thinking of going back to the old school way and start trimming equity into upward market strength building cash in the process while I await the next market pullback. Especially, with this last C19 summer outbreak. As my late father use to say, "you will never go broke booking profit." Just don't overspend. OS
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 29, 2021 12:37:56 GMT
Hi guys, In the past when my equity allocation reached its upper limit within my asset allocation I trimmed equity in upward market movement. This last go round, though, I have been buying on the fixed side of my portfolio with excess portfolio cash generation to keep my asset allocation on bubble. Now, that fixed income is paying so little ... I'm thinking of going back to the old school way and start trimming equity into upward market strength building cash in the process while I await the next market pullback. Especially, with this last C19 summer outbreak. As my late father use to say, "you will never go broke booking profit." Just don't overspend. OS Good Morning!!! We are both in about the same mode. I am building a little cash while awaiting more market based data. |
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 29, 2021 14:48:39 GMT
It boils down to your style and goals. I'm at 99+% invested. VIX is my first indicator, it must get to 35-40 before I'm thinking about doing something. The SP500 keeps going up while some investors keep trimming for months and/or trading in/out. Nobody knows or can predict the next move. The SP500 can go down 1-2-5% any time and rebound.
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Post by jongaltiii on Aug 29, 2021 18:08:20 GMT
9 reasons the S&P 500 will keep going up: www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-will-keep-going-up-this-fall-for-these-9-reasons-11629911414โ There are plenty of absurd arguments that investors make to justify their positions. But one that is particularly maddening to me is the notion that the stock market can ever be โreadyโ for a correction. Not only is there an abundance of research that proves the folly of market timing to avoid downturns, but such statements seem to indicate you can easily predict market moves in general โ and all you have to do is identify the forecast and you can ensure youโre early rather than late to a trend.โ โ Strong momentum for stocks: In case you missed it, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.88% has just notched its fastest doubling in history as it has surged from lows of around 2,240 on March 23 to around 4,500 in August. It also already has set 51 closing records this year. This kind of record-breaking momentum clearly canโt last forever, but it is important not to conflate this strong performance with the assumption a correction is โoverdue.โ Generally speaking, stocks tend to move higher simply because theyโre moving higher โ not suddenly crash out of the blue. Earnings remain impressive: Companies across the S&P 500 have beat estimates by an average of more than 19% in the last five quartersโฆโ |
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Post by gman57 on Aug 29, 2021 21:15:01 GMT
I think we're in a boom. Millennials are entering their prime earning years and they are buying houses and starting families and will spend spend spend. Depending on what you read there are as many or more millennials than baby boomers. Enjoy the ride.
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Post by liftlock on Aug 30, 2021 2:34:09 GMT
I think we're in a boom. Millennials are entering their prime earning years and they are buying houses and starting families and will spend spend spend. Depending on what you read there are as many or more millennials than baby boomers. Enjoy the ride. While current spending is on a rise, I am doubtful that it's due to demographic trends. We went for a year with much of the economy shut down due to Covid. During that time the government gave out a fair amount of money that was saved and remains un-spent. Now with Covid under better control, folks have started spending again. I remain bullish because I think spending growth can continue for a while. Longer term I am not so sure. Demographic tends do not look good to me. There is a large aging population who are likely to spend less than they did while they were working. There is an insufficient number of younger workers to offset the lost spending by the aging population. Immigration might provide a solution to our demographic challenges, but few of our citizens and our politicians are taking a longer term view. Check out these demographic documents at Yardeni.com: www.yardeni.com/pub/usdemo.pdfwww.yardeni.com/pub/globalworkpop.pdfwww.yardeni.com/pub/globaledrpop.pdfThe elderly dependency ratios speak volumes about the challenges that lie ahead. The elderly have not saved enough to support their own retirement and it seems likely that the working age population will have difficulty supporting so many of them. |
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 30, 2021 22:51:06 GMT
The question is...what stocks will do next? The answer is ( here). |
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Post by roi2020 on Aug 30, 2021 23:40:52 GMT
Oh Brother....
This is what happens when one gets to big for his britches.
I wasn't going to say anything, but you are right! A true legend in his own mind... |
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bf22
Commander
Posts: 135
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Post by bf22 on Aug 30, 2021 23:43:38 GMT
Oh Brother....
"Can PE, PE10(CAPE), inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)?
No. There is not a high correlation between the above to what stocks will do next.
You name it, and I can prove that any of the above can't tell you what's next. One of the main reason is the interference of the Fed Reserve.
But, the 24/7 media keep publishing articles (many recyclable) to make you believe someone can predict it.
Unfortunately, predictions are far from being accurate. Remember, if you sell and stocks continue going up 10% and then down 5% and then continue up, you saved the 5% decline but you made less money. Timing is far from being easy."
But he knows the answer.
This is what happens when one gets to big for his britches.
Is there a paywall for this information?
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 31, 2021 0:04:37 GMT
Oh Brother....
"Can PE, PE10(CAPE), inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)?
No. There is not a high correlation between the above to what stocks will do next.
You name it, and I can prove that any of the above can't tell you what's next. One of the main reason is the interference of the Fed Reserve.
But, the 24/7 media keep publishing articles (many recyclable) to make you believe someone can predict it.
Unfortunately, predictions are far from being accurate. Remember, if you sell and stocks continue going up 10% and then down 5% and then continue up, you saved the 5% decline but you made less money. Timing is far from being easy."
But he knows the answer.
This is what happens when one gets to big for his britches.
Where in my post I said I know the answer? |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 31, 2021 0:06:31 GMT
๐๐ป๐
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bf22
Commander
Posts: 135
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Post by bf22 on Aug 31, 2021 0:08:08 GMT
Oh Brother....
"Can PE, PE10(CAPE), inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)?
No. There is not a high correlation between the above to what stocks will do next.
You name it, and I can prove that any of the above can't tell you what's next. One of the main reason is the interference of the Fed Reserve.
But, the 24/7 media keep publishing articles (many recyclable) to make you believe someone can predict it.
Unfortunately, predictions are far from being accurate. Remember, if you sell and stocks continue going up 10% and then down 5% and then continue up, you saved the 5% decline but you made less money. Timing is far from being easy."
But he knows the answer.
This is what happens when one gets to big for his britches.
Where in my post I said I know the answer? Per your earlier post: "The question is...what stocks will do next? The answer is (here)."
Edit: I agree with Admin, I'll stop.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 31, 2021 12:22:11 GMT
I am still building cash.
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hondo
Commander
Posts: 145
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Post by hondo on Aug 31, 2021 15:19:05 GMT
Many of us say we are waiting for the "correction" to invest waiting cash, but how much will the market rise while we are waiting? While we wait for a 10% or 20% correction, the market may go up 25% or 30%. Perhaps DCA is still the best method or just invest the cash when it's available instead of waiting for the big correction.
Just another point of view.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 31, 2021 16:06:40 GMT
My thought exactly. I am thinking to make a buy today.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2021 16:56:51 GMT
Many of us say we are waiting for the "correction" to invest waiting cash, but how much will the market rise while we are waiting? While we wait for a 10% or 20% correction, the market may go up 25% or 30%. Perhaps DCA is still the best method or just invest the cash when it's available instead of waiting for the big correction. Just another point of view. I had my issues with this. I was waiting for a correction in growth (Treasuries go up, people panic, etc...) to deploy some more funds. When there were smaller corrections, I still held out. Finally, I deployed those funds when some individual growth stocks took sizeable dips and seemed fairly priced. So, I have more AMAN, FB, GOOG instead of what I wanted - MSFT and PYPL. There just isn't a good answer when to deploy - depending on the individual situation. I have a longish lookout period (7+ years). My brother and some of his friends (very wealthy) went to cash several months ago. We don't talk about it. I don't think they are upset, but in hindsight not a good move. I am now in the camp of deploy when you have it. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Aug 31, 2021 17:59:01 GMT
Many of us say we are waiting for the "correction" to invest waiting cash, but how much will the market rise while we are waiting? While we wait for a 10% or 20% correction, the market may go up 25% or 30%. Perhaps DCA is still the best method or just invest the cash when it's available instead of waiting for the big correction. Just another point of view. Unless you need the cash, retired or not, keep everything on reinvestment. Where possible auto invest where you want instead monthly or quarterly. This or in combo with reinvestment allows you to DCA as you mentioned one or two different ways. If youโre taking profits I personally do this before โnewโ markets by November and use the old โsell by Mayโ adage as the end of a market. May through October always seemed to be the most unpredictable months. In the past I immediately stashed the cash for safely and used it as a source of funds to invest for major investments. For that I waited for a correction and/or a major downturn. Those are easily recognizable otherwise itโs guesswork (market timing) in my view. So you have at least small amounts invested all the time where you want, all over or in combination and do major moves only during easily recognizable occurrences after the fact. Of course this requires some forethought and a certain amount of patience. |
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Post by oldskeet on Aug 31, 2021 20:53:37 GMT
Hello guys,
When I write that I am building cash it is because I am in the distribution phase of investing and pretty much fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation and I feel the stock market is currently overbought. For those that are in the accumulation phase of investing with a long time horozion holding cash might not be the best investment strategy. However, I keep about 10% in cash in my grandaughter's custodial account to play stock market pullbacks just as I do in my own accounts. Holding cash to play stock market pullbacks has been a longstanding part of my family's investment strategy dating back to my late great grandfather. And, holding opportunity cash is a strategy that I learned from my late father.
I have observed while some are deciding what to sell in stock market pullbacks, for me, I am pondering what to buy.
Each of us have to govern as to what we feel is best.
"Aint" investing great because there is just no one right (or wrong) way to invest.
I wish all of you ... "Good Investing."
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 3, 2021 20:51:00 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 3, 2021 21:32:13 GMT
Thank You for the briefing. If I may, I would like to add that Precious Metals and most of the securities associated with them have made a turn up this week. Hopefully it will be sustained for a long time. The weakness in the value of the USD is giving many commodities a tailwind.
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