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Post by FD1000 on Nov 16, 2023 3:09:26 GMT
FD1000, My main point is value tends to lead growth in the 4th quarter over the last 5 and 10 years. True that so far SCHD isn't making a showing yet. Really I'm just sharing Tom Bowley's take on this from this morning's vid. He didn't mentions SCHD specifically, but he is bullish on value likely leading the market this quarter. If he is correct, SCHD being a value fund, I figure it is likely to do well for the next couple months. I can't seem to post charts but if you want, go to the seasonality charts and plug in SPYV and in the compare box SPY. Again, whether or not SCHD goes along with its value buddies, is merely conjecture on my part. Over the past 5 years SCHD hasn't made as good a 4th quarter showing as SPYV. Let the race begin. SPY is leading by 4+%. schrts.co/UUNTNGsP
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Post by archer on Nov 16, 2023 3:36:44 GMT
Aww co'mon, lets start at the 27th.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 16, 2023 4:10:56 GMT
archer "value tends to lead growth in the 4th quarter over the last 5 and 10 years"
FD: The game started on Oct 1st = 10/31/2023 and ends on 12/31/2023 and we will check SPY vs SCHD. I know it was Tom Bowley who said it not you. We are half way.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 16, 2023 5:51:52 GMT
I wouldn't rule out SCHD for this 4th quarter. Seasonally value outperforms growth in the forth, and SCHD being a laggard for sometime perhaps more likely to rebound in a favorable market. But if you guys are talking long term, your predictions are better than mine. +1...Just an observation folks: Yesterday close: +0.76% SCHD +0.33% VIG +0.21% SPY ------------------------------------------------- R48
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Post by habsui on Nov 16, 2023 7:26:50 GMT
Please put some wager down. E.g., $1000 or a dinner at Applebee's (for the loser).
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Post by Norbert on Nov 16, 2023 7:51:16 GMT
I'm still waiting for uncleharley to offer us lunch. He loaded up on TQQQ (3x QQQs) the day before the huge rally. The guy's a trading genius, but could be more generous to the team. Question for uncleharley: Great call, but what do you think about the immediate overhead resistance for the S&P 500 and the Qs? Can we make new highs this year? The Qs chart is a bit stronger, but faces the same resistance.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 16, 2023 12:48:48 GMT
Congratulations to anyone who made money, the more the better. I don't make small bets, this time it was "only" 80%. As I said before for months now growth has been leading. The art of the momo.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 16, 2023 12:52:34 GMT
Based on the velocity with which the broader market broke above the S&P Head & Shoulders pattern I expect the major indexes to make new highs before the current leg up is done. As always that rise will not be in a straight line, but new highs on the S&P for Christmas is my target. I expect the Qs to lead.
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 16, 2023 13:33:08 GMT
I'm still waiting for uncleharley to offer us lunch. He loaded up on TQQQ (3x QQQs) the day before the huge rally. The guy's a trading genius, but could be more generous to the team. Heh... Flattery is worth the try; he's bound to be in a great mood! I didn't have near his cojones, but I'm feeling pretty good about doubling my QQQ and adding some SMH the day prior. Squirrels, nuts and all that!
As to the future, can we guess what will happen? Sure. Will it happen? Who knows! I don't yet see any chart indication to the contrary; so we have to assume the trend progresses - for now. Continuing good news would likely assure further progress. Bad news could derail things, obviously. My opinion is that we're good through the year's end; so probably new highs (and good luck to all on that).
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 16, 2023 13:44:42 GMT
I'm still waiting for uncleharley to offer us lunch. He loaded up on TQQQ (3x QQQs) the day before the huge rally. The guy's a trading genius, but could be more generous to the team. Heh... Flattery is worth the try; he's bound to be in a great mood! I didn't have near his cojones, but I'm feeling pretty good about doubling my QQQ and adding some SMH the day prior. Squirrels, nuts and all that!
As to the future, can we guess what will happen? Sure. Will it happen? Who knows! I don't yet see any chart indication to the contrary; so we have to assume the trend progresses - for now. Continuing good news would likely assure further progress. Bad news could derail things, obviously. My opinion is that we're good through the year's end; so probably new highs (and good luck to all on that).
I made a post earlier in Oct that a trade would come, just wait for it. I saw a perfect trade on Nov 1st for both stocks+bonds which I . The future? no clue, my LT has been build on many ST, in my world ST=hours to months. BTW, it's the same reason I never bought CD/treasuries because MM + one trade is worth much more + flexibility. I usually would stay with HY Munis much longer, especially this time of the year, but markets are less predictable for almost 2 years.
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Post by richardsok on Nov 16, 2023 13:56:47 GMT
Based on the velocity with which the broader market broke above the S&P Head & Shoulders pattern I expect the major indexes to make new highs before the current leg up is done. As always that rise will not be in a straight line, but new highs on the S&P for Christmas is my target. I expect the Qs to lead. Though Nov & Dec are historically bullish months, any gutsy "no excuses" call is always welcome. Kudos, harley. I think a lot of us would agree with you and are heavily invested, but few would come out with a specific prediction. I'm thinking some of the better known CEFs may slip in early December as little investors sell to take their tax losses -- but we could see lows around Christmas and recover strongly into the new year. (Commonly called the "January effect".) I am looking to add to PAXS and PHK on any oppty. As previously noted, bonds should be strong, too.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 16, 2023 16:22:20 GMT
OK, it's official. The market is heading up.
Will ignore the big oil price decline (low demand forecast) and homebuilder pessimism.
Still, odd that bond yields are sharply down, but stocks are hesitating. Hmmm.
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 16, 2023 18:11:13 GMT
Digesting the gains? I think tomorrow will be more enlightening.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 16, 2023 19:33:17 GMT
I just got home from an aborted road trip to Fargo. My travel range has been greatly reduced for the foreseeable future. Consequently if someone wants lunch, they will have to P M me when they are in the vicinity of Rapid City or Hot Springs, SD. 4485 on the S&P might be support for the current consolidation, however Tuesday mornings gap could also be an attractive place for the market to turn up. We'll see.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 18, 2023 5:04:18 GMT
This is what I said on Nov 1st
( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353) "buy before closing...no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ." T his is another post on Nov 1st on the bond forum ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43354) "it's all in hindsight Did you catch the buy T/A buy signal for several funds, and it wasn't the first day?" On Nov 4th ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43481) "I changed 80% of my portfolio last week that I held for several months" ---------------------- For today: The way I look at markets for my own portfolio. Most times I tend to think in weeks term, until I see a dramatic change and then I look at days. Things like moving averages, volume, bottoms, ceiling, gaps and especially OVER/LOWER valuations do not give me any trading signals. Only the beginning of up/down trends which happen after a direction change make me trade, and if I'm sure about it, I use a hug %. All these 0.5-2 (even 3%) are just a feel good negligible moves with very limited influence on someone's portfolio. So, on Nov 1st I saw a clear buy for main the stock and bond indexes. The first move is usually the best, then slower but you can stay in the trade or not depending on your style. My indicators show a week ago that markets can run up at 70% chance for one week. The 10 year treasury rolled over and show weakness for about 3 weeks. The SPY went down about 10% and climbed back to 1% from the top. The 10 year TR can go back to 5% or down to 4%. From this point, I don't know what will be next, never did, I just catch uptrends, never short markets. Stocks:SPY,QQQ Bonds:HY Munis and watch rates like a hawk.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 18, 2023 5:17:56 GMT
This is what I said on Nov 1st
( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353) "buy before closing...no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ." T his is another post on Nov 1st on the bond forum ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43354) "it's all in hindsight Did you catch the buy T/A buy signal for several funds, and it wasn't the first day?" On Nov 4th ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43481) "I changed 80% of my portfolio last week that I held for several months" ---------------------- For today: The way I look at markets for my own portfolio. Most times I tend to think in weeks term, until I see a dramatic change and then I look at days. Things like moving averages, volume, bottoms, ceiling, gaps and especially OVER/LOWER valuations do not give me any trading signals. Only the beginning of up/down trends which happen after a direction change make me trade, and if I'm sure about it, I use a hug %. All these 0.5-2 (even 3%) are just a feel good negligible moves with very limited influence on someone's portfolio. So, on Nov 1st I saw a clear buy for main the stock and bond indexes. The first move is usually the best, then slower but you can stay in the trade or not depending on your style. My indicators show a week ago that markets can run up at 70% chance for one week. The 10 year treasury rolled over and show weakness for about 3 weeks. The SPY went down about 10% and climbed back to 1% from the top. From this point, I don't know what will be next, never did, I just watch easy trends. Stocks:SPY,QQQ Bonds:HY Munis and watch rates like a hawk. Excellent hindsight.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 18, 2023 5:21:57 GMT
I just got home from an aborted road trip to Fargo. My travel range has been greatly reduced for the foreseeable future. Consequently if someone wants lunch, they will have to P M me when they are in the vicinity of Rapid City or Hot Springs, SD. 4485 on the S&P might be support for the current consolidation, however Tuesday mornings gap could also be an attractive place for the market to turn up. We'll see. Sorry for the aborted trip. Hope to visit SD one day. I appreciate the forward-looking analysis and real-time trading commentary. It's refreshing!
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 23, 2023 18:32:18 GMT
I mentioned Tom Bowley in the past several times. Tom has been my favorite analyst because we have similar views of the markets but he does it with a lot more details and explanation. Tom discusses the big picture, markets history, ST+LT T/A and show you it's easier than you think. He is mostly a bull but in the past, called a few times to sell, also called bottoms too. Last week video( www.youtube.com/watch?v=powj_70eFnY) is a good example (start at minute 7.30): * Big picture - time of the year is favorable * Looking at wide range categories = concentration * Transport indicator = economy barometer * Simple T/A = A/D line * 80+% of companies beat expectation, vs normal = 66% all means bull market * Ignore CNBC, most analysts don't have a clue. The whole market = the magnificent 7 + endless warnings = BS, in the last month 200+ companies beat the SP500, 10 of the 11 sectors have been doing great. Instead, follow the charts, relative strength + A/D line ( halleluiah). Growth has been putting high low + high highs for months. * 10 YR TR - a good chance to drop to 4.1% * October is a month where bear markets end. Nov-Feb(winter) are usually the best to invest. October 27 to January 18 = a very high % of SP500 making money. From the above: 1) Stop listening to the "experts" and pay attention to the charts, relative strength + A/D line. 2) Bullish on the SP500 and especially growth. FD: 1) Pretty much what I have posted for months: why have you been invested in SC, international, value, healthcare and others? 2) My T/A is simpler. Look at several wide range categories on a chart to see relative strength, ignore volume, gaps, ceiling and bottoms and more. See an example( schrts.co/GSSApmDU). Is the chart not clear? 3) I used to listen to every video he posted, about twice weekly, but I follow my own analysis and trade accordingly. In the last year, I have been listening maybe once a month. None of my calls on any board were based on Tom Bowley but he is still my favorite common sense analyst. 4) Now I start to read the usual, several analysts worry about VALUATION or going up too fast. Several weeks ago they worried about bear markets and other things. It all means nothing to me. Markets don't move ST based on valuation, worries, and most things these "experts" talk about. 5) BTW, I have no clue about bottoms and tops because the charts have to verify the trend which takes longer.
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Post by habsui on Nov 23, 2023 19:15:12 GMT
I mentioned Tom Bowley in the past several times. Tom has been my favorite analyst because we have similar views of the markets but he does it with a lot more details and explanation. Tom discusses the big picture, markets history, ST+LT T/A and show you it's easier than you think. He is mostly a bull but in the past, called a few times to sell, also called bottoms too. Last week video( www.youtube.com/watch?v=powj_70eFnY) is a good example (start at minute 7.30): * Big picture - time of the year is favorable * Looking at wide range categories = concentration * Transport indicator = economy barometer * Simple T/A = A/D line * 80+% of companies beat expectation, vs normal = 66% all means bull market * Ignore CNBC, most analysts don't have a clue. The whole market = the magnificent 7 + endless warnings = BS, in the last month 200+ companies beat the SP500, 10 of the 11 sectors have been doing great. Instead, follow the charts, relative strength + A/D line ( halleluiah). Growth has been putting high low + high highs for months. * 10 YR TR - a good chance to drop to 4.1% * October is a month where bear markets end. Nov-Feb(winter) are usually the best to invest. October 27 to January 18 = a very high % of SP500 making money. From the above: 1) Stop listening to the "experts" and pay attention to the charts, relative strength + A/D line. 2) Bullish on the SP500 and especially growth. FD: 1) Pretty much what I have posted for months: why have you been invested in SC, international, value, healthcare and others? 2) My T/A is simpler. Look at several wide range categories on a chart to see relative strength, ignore volume, gaps, ceiling and bottoms and more. See an example( schrts.co/GSSApmDU). Is the chart not clear? 3) I used to listen to every video he posted, about twice weekly, but I follow my own analysis and trade accordingly. In the last year, I have been listening maybe once a month. None of my calls on any board were based on Tom Bowley but he is still my favorite common sense analyst. 4) Now I start to read the usual, several analysts worry about VALUATION or going up too fast. Several weeks ago they worried about bear markets and other things. It all means nothing to me. Markets don't move ST based on valuation, worries, and most things these "experts" talk about. 5) BTW, I have no clue about bottoms and tops because the charts have to verify the trend which takes longer. Talking about Turkey...
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Post by Norbert on Nov 24, 2023 16:30:00 GMT
I mentioned Tom Bowley in the past several times. Tom has been my favorite analyst because we have similar views of the markets but he does it with a lot more details and explanation. Tom discusses the big picture, markets history, ST+LT T/A and show you it's easier than you think. He is mostly a bull but in the past, called a few times to sell, also called bottoms too. Last week video( www.youtube.com/watch?v=powj_70eFnY) is a good example (start at minute 7.30): * Big picture - time of the year is favorable * Looking at wide range categories = concentration * Transport indicator = economy barometer * Simple T/A = A/D line * 80+% of companies beat expectation, vs normal = 66% all means bull market * Ignore CNBC, most analysts don't have a clue. The whole market = the magnificent 7 + endless warnings = BS, in the last month 200+ companies beat the SP500, 10 of the 11 sectors have been doing great. Instead, follow the charts, relative strength + A/D line ( halleluiah). Growth has been putting high low + high highs for months. * 10 YR TR - a good chance to drop to 4.1% * October is a month where bear markets end. Nov-Feb(winter) are usually the best to invest. October 27 to January 18 = a very high % of SP500 making money. From the above: 1) Stop listening to the "experts" and pay attention to the charts, relative strength + A/D line. 2) Bullish on the SP500 and especially growth. FD: 1) Pretty much what I have posted for months: why have you been invested in SC, international, value, healthcare and others? 2) My T/A is simpler. Look at several wide range categories on a chart to see relative strength, ignore volume, gaps, ceiling and bottoms and more. See an example( schrts.co/GSSApmDU). Is the chart not clear? 3) I used to listen to every video he posted, about twice weekly, but I follow my own analysis and trade accordingly. In the last year, I have been listening maybe once a month. None of my calls on any board were based on Tom Bowley but he is still my favorite common sense analyst. 4) Now I start to read the usual, several analysts worry about VALUATION or going up too fast. Several weeks ago they worried about bear markets and other things. It all means nothing to me. Markets don't move ST based on valuation, worries, and most things these "experts" talk about. 5) BTW, I have no clue about bottoms and tops because the charts have to verify the trend which takes longer. Talking about Turkey... Or Baked Salmon with Brussels Sprouts?
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Post by johntaylor on Nov 24, 2023 19:14:17 GMT
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