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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 5, 2023 15:19:36 GMT
It's not whether or not the fed blinked; it's about how the market pundints (and investors)interpreted and stated things. Also strong market seasonality factors cause talking heads to spin things as the market is going. Here's a post I made on another thread:
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posted the following in September:
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I see the market as fairly normal.
Fairly normal means strong seasonal patterns exist entering and exiting Q4. That pattern is typically(posted about it often):
"Stocks have a very poor September, followed by a bottom in week 1 or 2 in October. Then stocks recover, and November and December are strong upward months. Tax loss selling effects end about 20 December."
So here is the most likely market direction I see for Q4:
"Stocks have a very poor September, followed by a bottom in week 1 or 2 in October. Then stocks recover, and November and December are strong upward months. Tax loss selling effects end about 20 December."
It's not rocket science.
I will be doing some repositioning shortly, and adding some monies now sitting in Money Market funds, into selected stock funds.
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Today's UPDATE: I see no reason to change this "most likely outcome." The market bottomed about two weeks later than stated (Israel/Hamas war not easy to foresee), but otherwise spot-on. And this week I posted I bought for brother's retiree portfolio, some VIG and SCHD. He says he is a happy camper. Note: There is always a "wall-of-worry" of reasons why market will not go up in Nov/Dec; yet I will almost never sell anything in these two months. This year, not unusual for Q4.
Edit to add: I do not invest based on predictions. And I use 200 day Moving Average Controls as one pillar of my investing. Should the market go back down through this Moving Average control ,it changes the most likely market direction. But I currently give this a low probability for remainder of Q4.
Will revisit 29 December...
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R48
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Post by archer on Nov 5, 2023 15:30:40 GMT
I don't know if I would call it blinking, but the Powell didn't come across as heavily as he has in other announcements. He did his usual statement of the Feds dual mandate, but no comments like more pain ahead, and in my takeaway he gave more acknowledgement to favorable signs showing what they have done is working, and also how supply and demand is more balanced than earlier. He presented a view of the economy that is more conducive to reduced inflation than in other talks.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 11, 2023 15:21:16 GMT
racqueteer , Many look for reasons, I stick with simpler approach. Under/Over value don't exist ST(weeks-months) and sometimes for years. I have no idea about short covering because I don't look for it and I don't know when it started and how long. I always listen to the Fed. The Fed blinked on Wed. The charts sensed it even sooner, the chart confirmed it. Most stock+bond fund lost in the last several weeks, usually they recover some or all. I changed 80% of my portfolio last week that I held for several months. My previous funds are still good but why not make more for several days-weeks. Small changes do not make sense to me, never did. I also said before that usually it's that time of the year. I would stick to what worked lately (weeks-months) and wide range funds. I don't know why investors look for bottoms for a narrow sector or what MAY do better (gold, health care, energy, value) when something has been working for months (SPY,QQQ) I use the 3 C=concise,clear,concentrated When will I sell? no idea, the chart and uptrend will tell me what to do. I actually mad at myself why I didn't change 100%, I got lazy. These periods are the ones where one week can equal several months of performance.. So, I just had another hindsight on Nov 1st. as I have done in other occasions. 1) I already posted several points at ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43774) and it's more about bonds 2) Why the Fed blinked? we are in inflection point, the Fed stayed put twice. On Wed Nov 1st, the Fed blinked. I don't care what 100 experts said or written anywhere, in my world the Fed blinked. Powell was not as hawkish as before. I don't have an idea how long he blinked. All I know is how to make money when I see MY signs. 3) In just several day SPY made 4.25, QQQ 6%( schrts.co/ZgHpkSWZ)....and even "slow" moving bonds, ORNAX, made 4%. 4) I sold already on Thur. When should you sell? I have no idea, you have other style and goals than mine. But, don't expect to get all trades. 5) Here it is again, the 3 C=concise,clear,concentrated, pay attention to the market you have, not the market you anticipate and keep it simple. SPY+QQQ are 2 wide range indexes that have been leading for months but no GLD,XLV(health care), just to name a few. See the chart ( schrts.co/zRjsQzRA). 6) My main idea since retirement is to be in riskier stuff just several times annually making several % each and the rest just to coast in very low volatility but still making a good total performance. In these markets, even HY Munis had a much higher volatility. Below is a chart of my largest account, Schwab supplied performance by account only. It is a good representative of my total portfolio. I purposely selected a date that falls in the middle of the month so you can't figure out the exact performance because I promised not to supply it anymore. It is longer than 6 months but shorter than 10. The chart shows my account + SP500 + Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond. YTD, I have used only bond OEFs. Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 11, 2023 16:09:03 GMT
FD1000 ,...Who posted: "4) I sold already on Thur."I'm glad I held everything thru Friday close, a great UP day. R48
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 11, 2023 17:57:23 GMT
FD1000 ,...Who posted: "4) I sold already on Thur."I'm glad I held everything thru Friday close, a great UP day. R48 +1 Most of the bond funds I follow did nothing on Friday. The difference is I traded 80% in and out.
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Post by habsui on Nov 11, 2023 19:00:11 GMT
FD1000 ,...Who posted: "4) I sold already on Thur."I'm glad I held everything thru Friday close, a great UP day. R48 +1 Most of the bond funds I follow did nothing on Friday. The difference is I traded 80% in and out. +1 So you made about as much as others who are holding..
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 11, 2023 19:04:47 GMT
+1 Most of the bond funds I follow did nothing on Friday. The difference is I traded 80% in and out. +1 So you made about as much as others who are holding..
Reread my post. I don't care how much you or anybody else made, and I actually I hope you made a lot more than me (if you followed my advice and bought QQQ). The chart in my post tells my style since retirement. To see several years you can go to my site. BTW, investors who held ORNAX, lost 14+% in 2022, and made only 0.6% YTD.
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Post by archer on Nov 11, 2023 21:22:52 GMT
Holding vs selling for taking profits, I'd love to catch 4 or 5 5% uptrends each year while being in the market only a month or so out of the year, but I never seem to be able call the short term tops. And when I do call a top or near top I'm not certain enough to sell. I've back tested a lot of TA methods and they usually result in just a little better than B&H do to the lag effect. My trading is more for entertainment than making money.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2023 4:49:52 GMT
Holding vs selling for taking profits, I'd love to catch 4 or 5 5% uptrends each year while being in the market only a month or so out of the year, but I never seem to be able call the short term tops. And when I do call a top or near top I'm not certain enough to sell. I've back tested a lot of TA methods and they usually result in just a little better than B&H do to the lag effect. My trading is more for entertainment than making money. archer, none of the above is what I have done most years. 2022 was a unique year. From Jan to Nov 2023 I was mainly in MM and only made 3 short trades, I traded HY Munis twice for days, twice PDI for hours and currencies for a couple of weeks using only part of my money. In Nov I was fully invested at 99+% and stayed in for several weeks. As I said several times before my T/A works much better with slower categories, AKA bond funds, but sometimes it's very clear for trading stocks too as it was on Nov 1. When it is clear? when something goes down dramatically for weeks, then my T/A and other stuff (proprietary) signal a strong buy. Then the rebound occurs. It's not all T/A, it's not trivial until you get it and that's what most miss. The facts are that I beat the SP500 during 2018-2022(5 years) using 90+% bond OEFs and that's because I avoided all the 3 losses of 20+% for the SP500 (2018, 2020, and 2022). I was also "wrong" 3 times when I sold it all and the market only was down mildly. I bought back within 3-5 days, that's another catch. The third catch is to know when it's very risky, more "normal", completely "normal" and what to do in each. I can't tell what I will do because I watch several things and they tell me what to do. I posted on 11/2022 that it's "normal" but it was still riskier in bondland. Bond funds were going up/down every several weeks and why I traded every several weeks. Year before that I held for months. In May 2023 I found great funds, but only these funds satisfied my risk/reward and why I stayed in for about 6 months until 1/11/2023 and then traded. The above is all part of learning markets for years. As you can see the only rules are flexibly at all times, and trade the markets you have, it keeps changing all the time. Using just T/A can't achieve it, just my opinion. Just like you I have tested dozens of T/A and realized I can do pretty well with ST trades but I can't predict the future. My other stuff tells me what to do. BTW, I have learned most of the above by tryout but a lot by listening and reading carefully others. All you need is one thing here and another there and suddenly you get the ha, ha moment. Hints: I got one idea from the best poster in several boards in over 15 years, one idea from Tom Bowley and one from the 5 PM CNBC show Fast Money(these traders discuss many interesting ideas and you got to process what makes sense). Think about it, how many hours of reading and listening produce only 3 basic simple ideas. I just love investing and why I listen to these, it's my hobby. I never believed in complicated stuff. When I read/hear ideas I go to test them and see if they really worked in the past. At the end, no matter what I think, it must shows on the charts in real time. I make several small "mistakes" every year but I usually fix(switch funds) them in 1-2 days because the charts tell me I was wrong.
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mikes425
Commander
generally happy in semi-retirement and dividend income-land
Posts: 126
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Post by mikes425 on Nov 12, 2023 5:19:53 GMT
Today's UPDATE: I see no reason to change this "most likely outcome." ...... >>And this week I posted I bought for brother's retiree portfolio, some VIG and SCHD. He says he is a happy camper. Note: There is always a "wall-of-worry" of reasons why market will not go up in Nov/Dec; yet I will almost never sell anything in these two months. This year, not unusual for Q4.
Edit to add: I do not invest based on predictions. And I use 200 day Moving Average Controls as one pillar of my investing. Should the market go back down through this Moving Average control ,it changes the most likely market direction. But I currently give this a low probability for remainder of Q4. <<retiredat48, I agree with your reasoning and, nice to see your choice of VIG and SCHD. I added to SCHD last week as well, at these 'less expensive' levels.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2023 22:21:11 GMT
Today's UPDATE: I see no reason to change this "most likely outcome." The market bottomed about two weeks later than stated (Israel/Hamas war not easy to foresee), but otherwise spot-on. And this week I posted I bought for brother's retiree portfolio, some VIG and SCHD. He says he is a happy camper. Note: There is always a "wall-of-worry" of reasons why market will not go up in Nov/Dec; yet I will almost never sell anything in these two months. This year, not unusual for Q4. Edit to add: I do not invest based on predictions. And I use 200 day Moving Average Controls as one pillar of my investing. Should the market go back down through this Moving Average control ,it changes the most likely market direction. But I currently give this a low probability for remainder of Q4. Will revisit 29 December... I'm curious to know why buy VIG+SCHD. For years now you have posted that you prefer to buy funds with a better momo. YTD: SPY easily beat both + from the last bottom, about 2 weeks ago SPY made more money. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2023 23:32:07 GMT
( wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-james-grant-on-the-investment-ramifications-of-the-new-era-of-higher-interest-rates/) " discuss the history of bond market cycles Grant argues that bond yields have trended in generation-length periods, with each cycle lasting at least 20 years. He believes that the bull market in bonds that began in the early 1980s has now come to an end, and that we are now embarking on a long-term period of rising interest rates."FD: I believe that the smart money watch bonds, especially when they are volatile and that high = a decent sub for stocks for some investors. This is why I trade riskier bond fund ST, I don't have a clue where rates will be months from now. Grant also think that in the future SC would take the lead. Sure, just tell me when.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 13, 2023 5:09:19 GMT
Today's UPDATE: I see no reason to change this "most likely outcome." The market bottomed about two weeks later than stated (Israel/Hamas war not easy to foresee), but otherwise spot-on. And this week I posted I bought for brother's retiree portfolio, some VIG and SCHD. He says he is a happy camper. Note: There is always a "wall-of-worry" of reasons why market will not go up in Nov/Dec; yet I will almost never sell anything in these two months. This year, not unusual for Q4. Edit to add: I do not invest based on predictions. And I use 200 day Moving Average Controls as one pillar of my investing. Should the market go back down through this Moving Average control ,it changes the most likely market direction. But I currently give this a low probability for remainder of Q4. Will revisit 29 December... I'm curious to know why buy VIG+SCHD. For years now you have posted that you prefer to buy funds with a better momo. YTD: SPY easily beat both + from the last bottom, about 2 weeks ago SPY made more money. I posted I bought for brother in law, who has a modest portfolio and desires 3% withdrawal rate, or yield, to fund retirement. His yield was 1% going in. We now have portfolio above 4% yield (5% MM rate helps). Schd is a low expense ratio fund of dividend paying stocks that help meet the goal. VIG is partly an inflation hedge IMO. Companies that are growing dividends each year, have better pricing power with inflation. One gives up some in current yield. However, I too own some of both for similar reasons. My portfolio has a yield that fully satisfies RMDs and living needs. Quite comfortable, not having to worry at all about stock fund prices and withdrawal impact. And I have a goodly share of momentum stock funds. When you have more than enough, invest as though your beneficiaries or heirs are getting the money. R48
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 13, 2023 21:54:08 GMT
R48, I haven't change my basic style for about 28 years, I have more than enough, and my kids will have a nice inheritance. BTW, my bond funds have a very nice %, and much higher than 4%, all my funds Div+CG have been reinvested. I always sell shares when I need money because I don't believe in income, never did. Basically, we could live on the funds distributions, but I want all my money in my brokerage to work for me all the time.
For me, it was mainly all or nothing. When something works for me, I practice it to the fullest.
Basically, if the uptrend of SPY/QQQ clearly looks better than SCHD, chances are low I would stay(or buy) SCHD. No ifs or buts. Once again, I used to recommend SCHD for years, it does make sense for months now.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 13, 2023 22:29:08 GMT
R48, I haven't change my basic style for about 23 years, I have more than enough, and my kids will have a nice inheritance. BTW, my bond funds have a very nice %, and much higher than 4%, all my funds Div+CG have been reinvested. I always sell shares when I need money because I don't believe in income, never did. Basically, we could live on the funds distributions, but I want all my money in my brokerage to work for me all the time. For me, it was mainly all or nothing. When something works for me, I practice it to the fullest. Basically, if the uptrend of SPY/QQQ clearly looks better than SCHD, chances are low I would stay(or buy) SCHD. No ifs or buts. Once again, I used to recommend SCHD for years, it does make sense for months now.My bold added above. Ah, but therein is the "rub." SPY was primarily doing well because of the magnificent seven. A great decade plus. But do we think this high growth uptrend in prices will continue? Let's say yes...then my largest holding, FSPTX, Fidelity Select Technology, a more focused fund, does quite well! And SCHD provides about a percent less in yield (growing dividends) versus bonds, and a modest annual stock gain. It is not a "loser." Let's say no...The performance shifts to value stocks/dividend paying stocks (funds) and now they start beating growthy types. Past cycles have this happening for years, if not a decade. Then, SCHD is well positioned. You get a spendable yield, and price gains in the fund NAVs. Point is: You do not want to win or lose based on a market prediction bet of who will be best performers. Nor on market timing, such as "all or nothing." No need to. Own a strategically balanced portfolio to cover all outcomes. R48
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 13, 2023 22:56:13 GMT
The "rub" is that I'm concentrated in the leading categories for decades, never diversified. It doesn't mean every day or week I nailed it, it means I don't stay with lagging categories too long. The above worked already for at least 20 years per risk/reward. 1995-2000 (US LC)...2000-2010 (value, SC, international)...2010-2021 (US LC and growth) As I said before I know other traders who practice that too and some are faster than me. BTW, I posted that I sold, that does not mean others should do it. I think there is a good chance SPY/QQQ continue to do more and what I used to do with stocks years ago.
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mikes425
Commander
generally happy in semi-retirement and dividend income-land
Posts: 126
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Post by mikes425 on Nov 13, 2023 23:15:58 GMT
The "rub" is that I'm concentrated in the leading categories for decades, never diversified. It doesn't mean every day or week I nailed it, it means I don't stay with lagging categories too long. The above worked already for at least 20 years per risk/reward. 1995-2000 (US LC)...2000-2010 (value, SC, international)...2010-2021 (US LC and growth) As I said before I know other traders who practice that too and some are faster than me. BTW, I posted that I sold, that does not mean others should do it. I think there is a good chance SPY/QQQ continue to do more and what I used to do with stocks years ago. If one is not into market timing, what is the major drawback in accumulating SCHD gradually, and getting a reasonably decent dividend, in an ETF that invests in solid dividend yielding companies. Yes it's lagged badly this year given its focus on dividend payers putting an emphasis on consumer staples and healthcare and not much tech which has been the whole driver of returns this year.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 13, 2023 23:22:02 GMT
If you are not into timing you should select limited number of funds and hold for years and hardly trade. My observation over many years on several forums is that a big % of investors would do better with no trading. IMO, in most cases, these forums are the main source of this. Many posters over the years said they are not traders and then they post their trades every week/month.
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Post by Capital on Nov 13, 2023 23:46:47 GMT
Anybody have an idea yet about how much sense 2024 is going to make?
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Post by habsui on Nov 13, 2023 23:53:03 GMT
Judging from this thread, a lot more...
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 14:08:50 GMT
Anybody have an idea yet about how much sense 2024 is going to make? On the OP I posted that stocks + bonds would makeore sense. Stocks, AKA the SP500, already proved it, typical bonds did not because rates still went up but now the Fed has been more dovish in the last meeting and why bonds have done better. So, on a relative basis bonds may do better which in bond land performance can still be not as much as stocks.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 14, 2023 15:37:52 GMT
FD1000 ,...Who posted: "4) I sold already on Thur."I'm glad I held everything thru Friday close, a great UP day. R48 I'm glad I still hold Tuesday, 11/14, as market continues to ZOOM UPWARD! Glad FSPTX Fido High Tech Sector Fund still my top fund holding. Disclosure...Started accumulating FSPTX at inception date several decades ago; never sold any. R48
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 17:17:05 GMT
R48, good for you. Already said several times that market will probably will continue higher. All aligned: time of the year, T/A, and big picture. I sold because I'm in double digits YTD and much more than I need.
I have been holding shares of VWELX since 1929.
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Post by anitya on Nov 14, 2023 19:36:03 GMT
I did not want to post this on the B/S/W thread but this is a continuation of the conversation we were having about office real estate. I would never dare tell richardsok how to trade / invest. But I have a long history of dumpster diving. I am guessing for the current WFH trend to reverse, I am speculating that unemployment has to go up quite a bit (not the current soft glove touch). (There is a cat and mouse game going on between employers and employees.) I could not help but ask myself, in the moment of time when unemployment is very high (pick the number for this cycle), how would the office real estate look like? Then I ask myself, are investors currently over-reacting to office real estate malaise? Looking at the price recovery of a number of names (e.g., SLG?) in the space tells me the story.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 22:08:19 GMT
The main idea of this thread is what categories can make us more money and why.
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Post by anitya on Nov 14, 2023 22:21:42 GMT
The main idea of this thread is what categories can make us more money and why. Unless you are trolling yourself, not sure how my post about prospects for investing in office real estate is not within the frame work of this thread.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 15, 2023 23:56:47 GMT
Andy Constant is a timer On Nov 1 ( www.cnbc.com/video/2023/11/01/buy-all-assets-after-treasury-increases-size-of-auctions-damped-spring-advisorsa-constan.html)
"Buy all assets" says @dampedspring CEO and CIO Andy Constan. Today 11/15 ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsJRi3JZku4) Time to sell all assets. RSP=SP500 equal weight finish up today = a good thing. WE SHALL SEE. Energy: since the start of 2023, so many experts and fund managers have told us why energy is great, why they are hiding in energy, and several weeks ago they said I told you oil is going to $100. Similar to that was the healthcare category. Reality: Both are down YTD chart= schrts.co/dzJfAaFd. It's a common thing among traders, if you buy a single stock, it is better to own a stock in a winning category = "A rising tide lifts all boats" Tesla is one of the stock that has many haters and lovers. I love listening to the haters because they have been wrong so many times. It doesn't matter if it's a car company or a tech company or valuations are high. It's been proven that all these metrics really don't matter. Tesla had a very high volatility. Earlier in the year it was at 120+ and the haters said it is still expensive, then it went to 280+ and the haters still didn't like it, then it went back to 200+ and they said, I told you so, it should be under 100. It is back to 240+ in about 3 weeks.
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Post by archer on Nov 16, 2023 0:13:51 GMT
I wouldn't rule out SCHD for this 4th quarter. Seasonally value outperforms growth in the forth, and SCHD being a laggard for sometime perhaps more likely to rebound in a favorable market. But if you guys are talking long term, your predictions are better than mine.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 16, 2023 0:29:31 GMT
archer , I'm looking at a chart and so far I don't see it. YTD SPY much better than RSP,SCHD,COWZ. First attachment = longer term The last rebound, SPY still better, then RSP,SCHD,COWZ. Second attachment=very ST COWZ has been better than SCHD, the rebound is very anemic. For another index I would go with RSP instead of SCHD,COWZ. Another interesting thing, SPY did better with much lower SD in the last 2 week = don't believe that high performance always = higher risk/SD it's another myth I love to debunk. SPY is the only one with less than 1% down SD. Hint: that's what I have used for decades to find great funds. Nothing is guarantee of course. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZksQd2fC6YAttachments:
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Post by archer on Nov 16, 2023 1:38:37 GMT
FD1000, My main point is value tends to lead growth in the 4th quarter over the last 5 and 10 years. True that so far SCHD isn't making a showing yet. Really I'm just sharing Tom Bowley's take on this from this morning's vid. He didn't mentions SCHD specifically, but he is bullish on value likely leading the market this quarter. If he is correct, SCHD being a value fund, I figure it is likely to do well for the next couple months. I can't seem to post charts but if you want, go to the seasonality charts and plug in SPYV and in the compare box SPY. Again, whether or not SCHD goes along with its value buddies, is merely conjecture on my part. Over the past 5 years SCHD hasn't made as good a 4th quarter showing as SPYV.
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