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Post by FD1000 on Dec 31, 2022 15:16:07 GMT
In 2022, I started a thread "It doesn't make sense"( link). 2023 will make more sense. The following are several of my thoughts in no particular order that I have for awhile. * Stocks: the indexes lost more than the usual in 2022, but there were some brighter lights. In 01/2022 I posted that value+high Div show a better trend than SP500+growth. A few months later, I posted about HDV (energy tilted). I haven't changed my mind yet. In my world it means 50/50 SCHD+HDV. For the average Joe it could mean 40/40/20 (SPY,SCHD,HDV) * Bonds: YTD: 2022 was a terrible year. In most cases, we should have a good 2023. You can make several % more in managed bond fund, this is where they shine. Think DODIX for higher rated bonds, HY Munis and good Multi * CEFs makes sense in 2023 more than previous years, and as a sub for someone stock %. I just don't trust them and prefer to own higher yield stocks, such as the above. * Volatility should stay higher, over 20, most times. Markets are not easy. * T/A: I check my charts and I don't see any clear up direction. There are more indicators. * The Fed + rates: CME still show another possible 0.5%(twice 0.25%) increase. * Big picture: stocks have a good chance to make money after a big loss. Bonds will make money for sure, this is a no-brainer. Inflation is going down but still high. I pay attention mostly to the Fed and the charts which tell me in real time what markets do. * Action: I sold 99+% several weeks ago to MM and waiting for the next uptrend. * Outside the box idea: EM has been a bad place to be for years. My chart shows that MAINX (Matthews Asia Total Return Bond Fund) has been doing great with much lower volatility than EM+China stocks. See the chart. While many US bond funds are at 10-15% below par, MAINX is over 90% below par per M*( link). What should you do? I don't have a clue, you have your own goals. MOST SHOULD DO HARDLY ANYTHING, AND STAY WITHING THEIR AA, BASED ON THEIR GOALS. Lastly, concentration is the key (max 5-7 funds). Owning 15-20 positions don't make your portfolio performance or volatility better, just more complicated.
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Post by anitya on Jan 2, 2023 22:06:06 GMT
FD1000, I clicked on the link you included for M* under MAINX, which correctly takes one to the fund portfolio page. The Weighted Price datum is blank. ( I checked to make sure I am logged into my M* subscription service.) Where do you get the below 90% par info?
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Post by archer on Jan 3, 2023 5:41:56 GMT
Stocks making money after a big loss could happen in 2023, if we are at the end of a cyclical bear market. I think we are, but based on the chart below, I see a possibility we could be 1 year into a "secular" bear market. We are high enough above the chart's trend line that leads me to believe even after this past year of losses we at an unsustainable height. We could make a new high by the end of 2023, but if we do I don't expect it to last more than a year or so before we run into another 10 yr period like 2000-2013 or the '70s. Or, we might possibly already be in such. If the past trends continue we could have another couple/few good years. Could go either way IMO.
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 4, 2023 16:55:10 GMT
For me, I am staying within my baseline asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity with the ability to overweight (or underweight) my bond or stock allocation by up to 5% each.
Currently, I am pretty much on bubble within my asset allocation. For new money I am favoring CD's and MMK in the cash area, equity income in my groweth & income area, and small, mid caps along with emerging markets and global equity funds in my growth area. Each of us has to position as we feel best based upon our needs and risk levels. In addition, my portfolio's distribution yield is around 5%. Of this about half goes to my pocket and the other half gets reinvested to increase the footprint of the portfolio. So, for me with asset values being down it is a good time to buy around the edges and expand positions.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 4, 2023 17:11:17 GMT
According to my ST+LT T/A indicators, SC signaled an entry here and SC value(VBR) looks better than just SC, but SCHD still looks better longer term. Remember 1) Just because analysts say that SC are a better value and/or lagging for years (or another reason), doesn't mean it will be better going forward. 2) Diversification doesn't guarantee better performance, lower risk/SD or both. The chart below shows that SC have higher SD than LC. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 11, 2023 23:58:56 GMT
Per my post in the bond thread, most bond categories signaled a ST buy starting Jan 4th and LT on 5-6. STOCKS: SCHD signaled on the 4th, SPY signaled on the 6th. Many other stock indexes signaled a buy too Both also signaled a buy based on my LT T/A on 5-6. In the last 2 weeks, we can see strength with growth+QQQ but it relates more to lower rates. But, VBR(SCV) is right at the top with less influence by rates. HDV is lagging See attach 3 (VBR,SCHD,SPY,HDV,QQQ). Looking abroad at bigger countries/wide range index, FXI=China leads easily, followed by VGK=Europe and VXUS=international, all lead the SPY. See the ( chart). You can see that VBR(SCV) is competitive with international.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 14, 2023 14:52:35 GMT
As I predicted bonds should do well in 2023, especially not investment grade. HY Munis have taken the lead. CEFs have done really well, PDI made 9% YTD, preferred did well too. Stocks did well too. International continues to lead with 7% YTD while SPY made 4.2%. VALUE has weaken YTD: VTV and especially HDV(good for 2022) lag the SPY and QQQ. But, COWZ(Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF) is leading all of them, see ( www.morningstar.com/etfs/bats/cowz/quote). COWZ, see more analysis ( seekingalpha.com/article/4566382-cowz-sector-concentration-highlights-risks-into-2023). If you can't read use a browser with TOR(Brave) or VPN(Opera). Summary
* COWZ invests in companies with a high free cash flow yield. * COWZ was a winner in 2022, driven by a strong performance from energy sector stocks. * The fund appears to have a good defensive profile that can work well in the current environment of ongoing volatility. * Cash-cows may underperform in the next bull market. SCV(VBR) is doing well too. So, one can invests in SPY,SCHD for general use and add COWZ,VXUS,VBR.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 17, 2023 12:28:51 GMT
PTY is up 10.5% DGRS (SCV) is up 8.85%. Yields 2.88%. Thanks to mnfish for the heads up. The underlying theme is value. Small, mid and large. DGRS, COWZ and SCHD.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 17, 2023 16:54:37 GMT
PTY is up 10.5% DGRS (SCV) is up 8.85%. Yields 2.88%. Thanks to mnfish for the heads up. The underlying theme is value. Small, mid and large. DGRS, COWZ and SCHD. Yep. If I look at 4 value funds: DGRS, COWZ, VBR, and SCHD....DGRS, COWZ lead. CEFs look even better PTY+PDI made more money with lower volatility. PTY leads PDI. If it was me, I know exactly where to be, and why you can't be behind too long. Look how clean PTY chart looks. I have no problem liking CEFs lately and don't in the last 3-5 years. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 21, 2023 5:05:56 GMT
Observation: If you look at 2 months at VXUS(international)...FXI(China)...VGK(Europe)...COWZ(high cash)...DGRS(SC Div) China leads, Inter+Europe are together about 16% behind, US COWZ+DGRS are about 7-8% behind the previous. But, If you look at 1 month at VXUS(international)...FXI(China)...VGK(Europe)...COWZ(high cash)...DGRS(SC Div) China still leads leads, but the US is closer, and COWZ+DGRS are doing much better than SCHD. The uptrends + T/A for VXUS(international)...FXI(China)...VGK(Europe) look much better than the US, even the above which are better than SPY,SCHD. But, the Dollar lost about 10% in the last 2.5 months and probably had an effect on it. You can use the indexes, below I outline other options, and as usual I also look for good risk/reward. I found 2 interesting funds that have done well YTD, but also for 1-2 years. 1) Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund Investor Shares (VGPMX): Strategy=The fund invests in U.S. and foreign equity securities. It seeks to generate above average compounded returns by purchasing securities in companies and industries where capital spending is declining, and seeks to avoid companies, assets, and business models that can be easily replicated. The fund typically invests across a range of sectors, a mix of developed and emerging markets stocks, and typically holds companies across the market capitalization spectrum. It is non-diversified. FD: you get global exposure + tilting (materials, finance, industrial, energy) + very cheap ER=0.36% + US=30% 2) Third Avenue Value Fund Institutional Class (TAVFX): similar categories as above + ER=1.2 + US=26% 3) See 3 months ( link) ( stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SPY&compare=VGPMX,TAVFX,VXUS&id=p81265663150). VXUS is comparable. See 2 years ( link) ( stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SPY&compare=TAVFX,VGPMX,VXUS&id=p39980759270). These 2 funds shine compare to VXUS. * I don't know why, buy the links don't work if I have several funds, unless I just hide them.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 26, 2023 14:08:18 GMT
On another site I posted the following on 2/21/2023(you are 3 trading days behind now), based on my system (big picture + several proprietary indicators), see ( link). Observations:
1) Bonds + stocks funds are going down 2) VIX shot up from close to 18 to close to 23 in just several days, which is very rapid 3) My shorter+longer T/A indicators signaled a sell last week (it's 2 weeks now) for SPY,QQQ,COWZ,RZV and others. 4) My T/A indicators for bonds signaled a sell weeks ago, I sold everything to MM in early Feb 9posted on another site), based on my indicators. Read the above link 5) I don't believe in buying treasuries, because volatility is high and I can't predict rates. Many investors keep buying these as they think rates stabilize. I prefer to be out, and collect a safe guarantee with no risk or volatility MM(the bird in the hand) that pays now from FZDXX 4.4+% to SNAXX( link) 4.62%. 6) The above means to me, higher risk than "normal". I don't think it's as bad as 2000 or 2022, but I'm out regardless. A future uptrend will show up, it always does, and then I will join it. What should you do? I don't have a clue, you have your own goals. I'm used to go in/out trading a huge % of my portfolio for over 10 years.
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Post by marpro on Feb 26, 2023 14:58:41 GMT
On another site I posted the following on 2/21/2023(you are 3 trading days behind now), based on my system (big picture + several proprietary indicators), see ( link). Observations:
1) Bonds + stocks funds are going down 2) VIX shot up from close to 18 to close to 23 in just several days, which is very rapid 3) My shorter+longer T/A indicators signaled a sell last week (it's 2 weeks now) for SPY,QQQ,COWZ,RZV and others. 4) My T/A indicators for bonds signaled a sell weeks ago, I sold everything to MM in early Feb. 5) I don't believe in buying treasuries, because volatility is high and I can't predict rates. Many investors keep buying these as they think rates stabilize. I prefer to be out, and collect a safe guarantee with no risk or volatility MM(the bird in the hand) that pays now from FZDXX 4.4+% to SNAXX( link) 4.62%. 6) The above means to me, higher risk than "normal". I don't think it's as bad as 2000 or 2022, but I'm out regardless. A future uptrend will show up, it always does, and then I will join it. What should you do? I don't have a clue, you have your own goals. I'm used to go in/out trading a huge % of my portfolio for over 10 years. Thanks, FD. I never had bonds. So, no problem. Stock ETFs, yes. I will buy more cheap rather than sell.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 26, 2023 15:06:30 GMT
mapro, one day you will get older and/or retired. Most have bonds.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 28, 2023 14:36:47 GMT
In the last several days I see more analysts who share similar opinions...mmm...they are about 2 weeks late for stocks, and 3.5 weeks for bonds. 1) Market is getting complacent on geopolitical risk - J.P. Morgan's Kolanovic( link): "The broader U.S. market is still unattractive to the J.P. Morgan global markets strategy team, even with the decline of more than 2% in February." 2) Time to 'get back into cash,' Nomura says ( link): ""Now, in the absence of the macro Rates re-pricing and flow-catalysts having already largely 'played-out' and achieving the correction, it’s back to Cash (VMFXX) (MUTF:SPAXX) while awaiting further range-trading opportunities from yet-another 'overshoot' in the opposite direction — potentially as March sees the release of February data reflect the 'give back' from the Jan warm weather, alongside ever-increasing 'base-effect' drag back on inflation…and ironically, appropriately 'tighter' financial conditions too weighing on growth data again," McElligott said. As bonds and yields likely consolidate "at this 'priced-to-perfection' juncture, so too does cross-asset volatility likely then lose its recent tailwind, following the resumption of 'Fed policy path distribution' widening-out, as nearly 60bps of implied Fed tightening has been added since the start of February - and again, in absence of 'more upside surprise,' looks set to stall at 5.50%," he added." If you can't read seeking alpha, try using incognito with Google Chrome or TOR with brave or free VPN with Opera. I registered to that site years ago and never paid anything. I use Brave now for a few years, and I can read this site without using TOR.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 4, 2023 14:47:44 GMT
Last week was positive for stocks and...things looks better. The VIX retreat + the SP500 bounce of the 200 day MA(first attachment) + first buy signal of 3 line break(second att). Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 4, 2023 17:29:46 GMT
richard: FD -- why don't you post more about CME and the specifics of how you use it? FD: look at the site( link) for CME FedWatch Tool. Read the quicklinks on the right, how/why they do it. I have been watching the above for years and came to a conclusion the above is pretty good forecasting Fed fund rates. It changes pretty quickly, sometimes within hours. It is one of several indicators/ideas I watch, as part of my big picture. Since 2018, Fed fund rate, has been very important indicator of market. Fed raised rates too fast in 2018 was one of the main contributors to SPY 20% decline. In early 2020 lowering rates and Fed support helped a new bull markets. In 2022, the Fed screamed they will raise rates, and they did, it was another easy indicator of what is coming. You could see a lot of the future by looking at the CME FedWatch tool. On the other hand, in 2010-2018, rates were generally lower, the Fed was supportive, and market did great. The above shows the direct correlation between rates, the Fed, markets. But, there is always a but, my big picture is based on several indicators (read at my site), sometimes correlation is much higher between what markets will do next, sometimes it's not, sometimes one indicator is stronger and others are weaker. Then I use T/A for higher correlation in real times. BTW, make it a habit to read/ listen to the Fed chair, instead of others, the Fed is usually clear what they are going to do instead of others who discuss what should be done. You put all the above together and it comes as only 2 choices, there is no gray area: are you going to be mostly in or mostly out. When I was younger, it was easily in over 90-95%, in retirement with a nice portfolio, I'm not in a hurry to be in.
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Post by fred495 on Mar 4, 2023 17:58:01 GMT
When I was younger, it was easily in over 90-95%, in retirement with a nice portfolio, I'm not in a hurry to be in.
Well said, FD.
I am still 100% in Treasury only MM funds and FDIC insured CDs from major national banks.
Once the US debt ceiling issue has been settled, may consider investing a portion of my portfolio in hedged/multi-asset funds such as BLNDX, FMSDX and JHQAX. As a retired and conservative investor, capital preservation and sleeping well at night are at the top of my list.
Good luck,
Fred
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Post by catdog on Mar 4, 2023 19:55:13 GMT
I am also 100% cash, CD's and Money Markets, but it is driving me crazy being out of the equity markets. Sold all on Nov 9 and am waiting until who knows to get back in. Have my eye on SCHD and PFE.
catdog
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Post by flipperxxx on Mar 4, 2023 22:20:47 GMT
speaking of 3 line-break buys, for bond folks, look at EAFAX. despite all the negatives, maybe that just means it's time to buck the crowd.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 4, 2023 23:56:02 GMT
I am also 100 I am also 100% cash, CD's and Money Markets, but it is driving me crazy being out of the equity markets. Sold all on Nov 9 and am waiting until who knows to get back in. Have my eye on SCHD and PFE. catdog Nov 9th was a great time to buy bonds and stocks. Flipper, bank loan are usually one of the best bond categories to own when rates rise.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 5, 2023 15:28:56 GMT
When I was younger, it was easily in over 90-95%, in retirement with a nice portfolio, I'm not in a hurry to be in.
Well said, FD.
I am still 100% in Treasury only MM funds and FDIC insured CDs from major national banks.
Once the US debt ceiling issue has been settled, may consider investing a portion of my portfolio in hedged/multi-asset funds such as BLNDX, FMSDX and JHQAX. As a retired and conservative investor, capital preservation and sleeping well at night are at the top of my list.
Good luck,
Fred
Always enjoy your posts. 2 funds with 3 years SD<4 and making over 3% annually for 3 years are: CBLDX,ARBIX. But, when looking for YTD + 1 year, CBLDX is the winner...for "let-me-park-some-of-my-MM-and-acknowledging-the-extra-risk". RPHIX from the same manager is the only fund I would use as reasonable MM sub, but it's closed, I predicted months ago that this fund will continue to beat MM. See first attachment with CBLDX,ARBIX,RPHIX,VMFXX(VG MM). CBLDX last monthly dist = 0.5+% * 12 months = over 6%. The dist are not similar each month, see below, second att. Available at Schwab at $1000 min + 49.95 fee, while at Fidelity min=$50K + 49.95 fee. Looks like the manager finds higher dist securities while keeping lower SD. This fund has interesting holding at 13.5% Cash & Equivalents + 21.6% floating rates(good for rising rates)
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Post by fred495 on Mar 5, 2023 15:51:32 GMT
Thanks for the information, FD. Much appreciated, will check out CBLDX.
I had ARBIX in my portfolio until early last year. The fund is still on my watch list.
Good luck, Fred
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Post by Chahta on Mar 5, 2023 18:29:53 GMT
I bought CBLDX and sister fund RSIIX last year when they went ex-div. David Sherman is a great manager for short HY funds (he does RPHIX as well). They are not the same as OSTIX. And don't think of them as old SEMMX either.
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Post by flipperxxx on Mar 5, 2023 22:34:17 GMT
i had CLBLDX for a while then kinda figured that at this time i'd do just about as well in MMs.
re EAFAX, sure floating rates do ok with rising rates but not so most of them, including this one, starting on Feb 9. now it's back one cent away from its all time high.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 6, 2023 15:27:02 GMT
i had CLBLDX for a while then kinda figured that at this time i'd do just about as well in MMs. re EAFAX, sure floating rates do ok with rising rates but not so most of them, including this one, starting on Feb 9. now it's back one cent away from its all time high. I understand as I was in Treasuries a lot of last year but the SEC yield is over 8% and looking like some CGs are in order down the road. I just decided it was time to buy even if I am early. I am tired of timing in and out.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 10, 2023 5:17:18 GMT
Observations: I read and hear for several weeks that it's time to hold ST bonds. I disagree If you expect rate hike, ST bonds will lose less than LT, but they will still lose money. Add to it the fact the Fed controls the short end (ties to Fed fund rate) while markets control mid-longer term bonds. So, what you see below in the 2 + 10 YR treasury charts? 1) The 2 YR is now going higher than what it was several months ago and its around 4.9, but the Fed fund rate is predicted to go at least to 5.5%, which means the 2 YR will be higher. This means ST VGSH probably will lose money in the next 2-4 months. 2) The 10 YR is now lower than several months ago. The yield inverted even more. 3) Why not hold MM instead which will adjust/increase as rates will go up? The bird in the hand with no risk is better than a MAYBE ST treasury...mmm...same idea we discussed on 03/2022. 4) When rates stop going up or the Fed signals close to the end....it is time to purchase mid-LT bonds, not ST bonds. BTW, the market is better telling you what to do with mid-LT bonds. Attachments:
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 10, 2023 10:01:51 GMT
FD1000, It's really a matter of perspective. The yield on 2 year treasuries is the highest it's been in about 16 years. They are auctioned only once per month. The next auction date is March 27th. While FED fund rates will be higher over the next few months, the yield curve may invert more as rates rise. So, longer term (2 year treasuries yields) may or may not go much higher. It's not clear what will happen with inversion, just pointing out the uncertainty with this. The markets are in a very uncertain situation beyond the next 6 months. The advice was/is to buy ST high quality bonds. I'm considering more 3 month T-Bills, but 2 year treasuries do look pretty smart right now for a portion of ones portfolio. Again, how much into 2 years is a matter of perspective.
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Post by chang on Mar 10, 2023 10:07:48 GMT
I've got a 6M T-bill that matures in June. I did not set it for auto rollover. I'll check the yields in June, but I'm happy with a (more or less) permanent T-bill position, so I will consider 6M, 12M and 2Y options.
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Post by mozart522 on Mar 10, 2023 13:48:20 GMT
I've got a 6M T-bill that matures in June. I did not set it for auto rollover. I'll check the yields in June, but I'm happy with a (more or less) permanent T-bill position, so I will consider 6M, 12M and 2Y options. Same here, but I'm staying around 3 months right now at 4.9+% until the debt ceiling issues are worked out. While I know the general opinion is we will never default, a lot of "never before" stuff seems to be happening recently.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 10, 2023 14:41:31 GMT
FD1000 , It's really a matter of perspective. The yield on 2 year treasuries is the highest it's been in about 16 years. They are auctioned only once per month. The next auction date is March 27th. While FED fund rates will be higher over the next few months, the yield curve may invert more as rates rise. So, longer term (2 year treasuries yields) may or may not go much higher. It's not clear what will happen with inversion, just pointing out the uncertainty with this. The markets are in a very uncertain situation beyond the next 6 months. The advice was/is to buy ST high quality bonds. I'm considering more 3 month T-Bills, but 2 year treasuries do look pretty smart right now for a portion of ones portfolio. Again, how much into 2 years is a matter of perspective. For me or anyone in my position, holding MM is the easiest way for the bird in the hand. It gives me all the options. It doesn't matter what the Fed does, I make money. I can also buy any time the bond funds I love that really make money. It's almost never a good idea to hold ST treasuries fund, such as VGSH which fluctuate. MM is a guarantee. If you want to hold longer + getting more then you can select 3-6 months CD/treasury which is also a guarantee. But again, how much more do you get? Right now Fidelity 3 months CD/treasury pays 5%. FZDXX pays 4.46%, VMFXX pays 4.52%, my SNAXX pays 4.62%. So for 3 months the difference is about 0.1%. Do I care about 0.1%? I don't, because I can buy much better performing Mid-LT bond fund that will make me a lot more money. Just because the 2 year is highest in 16 years, it's not an indication about the future. Inflation has been the highest in over 40 years. The Fed wants to fight it. If I'm looking beyond simple funds, I can hold RPHIX(only fund close to MM), or I can hold CBLDX. There is a reason I never held a direct treasury fund. Attachments:
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