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Post by habsui on Jun 2, 2023 11:20:47 GMT
This thread is away to how I think. In my view, the 24/7 media BS is just bait and click. Other 'experts' fill the air with worries that have marginal affect, at least for me. 2 good examples: 1) The debt ceiling is a none issue to me, it can't happen or at least can't last long. 2) Fed hikes are a none issue when we are talking about another 0.25% Lastly, talk doesn't carry a lot of weight for me. Everything must be reflected in the charts in real time. Where QQQ is going to be in 1-4-12 weeks? I don't have a clue. Look at the chart and trade based on your specific criteria. So what are the CHARTS saying? Otherwise, I don't understand how you knew at the beginning ofvthe year that QQQ would outperform. I'm trying to learn..
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Post by colorado on Jun 2, 2023 12:24:57 GMT
It's pretty easy to calculate % or at least know, if it's about 5,10,15%. Nobody needs to post amounts. Percentages can be determined from my above post, if logic used, knowing as-stated, FSPTX is my largest holding. Very confusing to me with apparently 2 contradictory statements: "I actually can't answer this, as my fund percentages are not readily available in total form", followed by "Percentages can be determined from my above post, if logic is used". For whatever reason, you have some resistance to owning both a largest holding and percentage of portfolio data point in your posts. Its your business but seems unnecessarily confusing to me.
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Post by mnfish on Jun 2, 2023 13:20:13 GMT
FD1000 , "The best proof was 2018-2022 where I beat SPY with extreme low performance. I believe that in order to do that you follow very concentrated portfolio, never be diversified" PortVis results state - SPY was up 56% Jan 2018 to Dec 2022 QQQ was up 77% in the same period mnfish investing results - Taxable +58%, IRA 1 +22%, IRA2 +51%, IRA3 +38%, IRA4 +40% FD was up ___% Please fill in the blank --- and do you mean extreme low SD? It's all documented ( here). I used a snipping tool to copy it directly from our Schwab accounts. I never lost more than 1% from any last top. BTW, my goals in retirement is to beat 30-40% stocks + never lose more than 3% from any last top. I was "lucky" to beat SPY. ========= Steady "How do some/most threads devolve into "my system is great" theme? And to what end do we keep pushing that theme?" FD: I hope no one would practice it. Already explained why. Wonderful, so we both got "lucky" to be invested those 5 years. From your link Schwab seems to use different percentages for the period. "76.76% from Jan 1, 2018 to Dec 29, 2022" -- "Rate of Return Annualized 12.08%" -- and then "69.03 % from Jan 1, 2018 to Dec 29, 2022" Isn't 12.08% x 5 = 60.4% ? Seems confusing. Wells uses "Investing Results" which removes any contributions, transfers, roll-overs, etc. Does Schwab do the same?
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 2, 2023 13:33:17 GMT
Everything must be reflected in the charts in real time. As I said above ( link), I disagree: I don't think "real time" tells you anything. There is only the past (very concerete, but is it actionable?) and the future (who has a crystal ball?). Again, I realize that most everyone here will disagree with me. I am quite Bogleheadish when it comes to the "stay the course" mentality; where I am definitely not Bogleheadish is when it comes to using actively managed funds. (I do use them, but I will hold them very long term unless something fundamental changes.) It seems to me, FD, that you ply a very low risk - low return strategy. You never want to lose more than 1% from the current top; OK, I get that. But I think that's a terrible strategy for a LT investor.If the above is true, how come I beat the SP500? I don't mind doing a Zoom session and show you the results. If someone just got here first time he/she would think it's a ridiculous statement. But, you got to look at history. My system have changed/tweaked according to markets, age, and goals. The process is over 20 years now. * First, I was an indexer. * Then the light hit me in 2000 about funds with good performance + good SD/Sharpe. For about 13-14 years, there was mostly no selling and timing based on charts. I was in 100%, just replacing my funds based of 2 dozens of good risk/reward funds and playing momo within this list. This system is published on my site. * 2013: was the first year I decided to inject a max loss from the last top of 6% for stock funds and 3% for bonds. Why 2013? I could see and plan my retirement date. For years I was looking for simple T/A rules and couldn't find any. * 2017: One year prior to retirement, was the first year I decided to be mainly bond OEFs investor because the results were risk/reward results were impressive to hit all our goals as retirees. By that time, I became a better trader because I practiced it. Bond funds are slower, over 1% loss is a big red flag for me. If I'm wrong and the uptrend continue I can invest again. With a big portfolio, I don't care. * 2018-2022: 3 bear markets in 5 years played great into my system. Did I hit correctly every one? no. I hit the 3 big ones, and missed a few were I was out for several days and nothing happened, and that's the main point. If you are out during the big losses, and join most of the upside, you would do well. Richardsok hit it on the head, lower volatility funds are easier to trade, bond funds are much easier. His book describes several l good aspect of good trading. His T/A are similar to mine. We differ on the number of funds, he uses more volatile funds, I use big picture analysis, I use T/A. I don't want to speak how he practices his system, I leave to him. So, there are investors who don't believe any of this because in most cases it doesn't work for most investors. Since 2000, I always thought about worse case scenarios and set up rules for that. Selecting my funds was based on performance first and then looking at SD/Sharpe. Switching to funds with better performance lately made sure I would not be stuck in funds/categories that lagged for years. I believe in patterns, it could be months but also years. Already mentioned over 25 years, from 1995 to 2021, with intervals of 5 years, 10, another 11. I have a new student, my wife. She never read anything about investments. I gave her things to learn so she can get the basics. I'm going to teach her the rest, and then how I invest. We are so busy, we don't have time for that. I hope we can accomplish it this year. I'm sure that after she knows the basics, she will get my system within hours. There are several nuances she will need to grasp. Then, she is going to actually practice it. I'm talking about trading in/out. It's the only way to get better. But, to be really good, one needs to figure out the big picture and pay attention to only several things and disregard most others. So what the charts say now for QQQ,SPY? stay in, the problem of course is when to sell, switch, or be out. Again, I started trading smaller % and over the years it grew to 99+%.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 2, 2023 13:37:21 GMT
It's all documented ( here). I used a snipping tool to copy it directly from our Schwab accounts. I never lost more than 1% from any last top. BTW, my goals in retirement is to beat 30-40% stocks + never lose more than 3% from any last top. I was "lucky" to beat SPY. ========= Steady "How do some/most threads devolve into "my system is great" theme? And to what end do we keep pushing that theme?" FD: I hope no one would practice it. Already explained why. Wonderful, so we both got "lucky" to be invested those 5 years. From your link Schwab seems to use different percentages for the period. "76.76% from Jan 1, 2018 to Dec 29, 2022" -- "Rate of Return Annualized 12.08%" -- and then "69.03 % from Jan 1, 2018 to Dec 29, 2022" Isn't 12.08% x 5 = 60.4% ? Seems confusing. Wells uses "Investing Results" which removes any contributions, transfers, roll-overs, etc. Does Schwab do the same? Did you hear about compounding? the rule of 72? An investment that makes 10% annually will double is just over 7 years while 10 * 7 = 70% Schwab does the same thing. See investment calculator ( link). Starting with $10K at 12.1% annually for 5 years, you get $17.68K which is 76.68% total and pretty close to the numbers from Schwab. Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 2, 2023 16:38:05 GMT
Percentages can be determined from my above post, if logic used, knowing as-stated, FSPTX is my largest holding. Very confusing to me with apparently 2 contradictory statements: "I actually can't answer this, as my fund percentages are not readily available in total form", followed by "Percentages can be determined from my above post, if logic is used". For whatever reason, you have some resistance to owning both a largest holding and percentage of portfolio data point in your posts. Its your business but seems unnecessarily confusing to me. I'm not ducking your question, colorado. Yes, I said the percentages can be determined from my post above. So here is some elementary math from this "post above." --My current portfolio is approx 60/40...meaning 60% stock funds. --Three growth type funds are more than half this = 60/2 = 30%+ of portfolio allocation. --Largest of the three is FSPTX...which means 1/3 min, or 30/3 = 10% minimum for FSPTX. IMO this is enough info for anyone to consider my risk management aspects, and how it pertains to their own portfolio. (And I discussed in additional detail more about my risk management re allocation percentages.) R48
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Post by colorado on Jun 2, 2023 22:32:30 GMT
Very confusing to me with apparently 2 contradictory statements: "I actually can't answer this, as my fund percentages are not readily available in total form", followed by "Percentages can be determined from my above post, if logic is used". For whatever reason, you have some resistance to owning both a largest holding and percentage of portfolio data point in your posts. Its your business but seems unnecessarily confusing to me. I'm not ducking your question, colorado. Yes, I said the percentages can be determined from my post above. So here is some elementary math from this "post above." --My current portfolio is approx 60/40...meaning 60% stock funds. --Three growth type funds are more than half this = 60/2 = 30%+ of portfolio allocation. I --Largest of the three is FSPTX...which means 1/3 min, or 30/3 = 10% minimum for FSPTX. IMO this is enough info for anyone to consider my risk management aspects, and how it pertains to their own portfolio. (And I discussed in additional detail more about my risk management re allocation percentages.) R48 OK--seems an unusual way of calculating. I just add up the total amount of my various accounts, use that as a denominator for division, using my largest monetary holding as the numerator. Takes me about 60 seconds to complete my calculation, which is precise. At any rate, it is your business for how you monitor/manage your portfolio.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 3, 2023 1:35:53 GMT
I'm not ducking your question, colorado. Yes, I said the percentages can be determined from my post above. So here is some elementary math from this "post above." --My current portfolio is approx 60/40...meaning 60% stock funds. --Three growth type funds are more than half this = 60/2 = 30%+ of portfolio allocation. I --Largest of the three is FSPTX...which means 1/3 min, or 30/3 = 10% minimum for FSPTX. IMO this is enough info for anyone to consider my risk management aspects, and how it pertains to their own portfolio. (And I discussed in additional detail more about my risk management re allocation percentages.) R48 OK--seems an unusual way of calculating. I just add up the total amount of my various accounts, use that as a denominator for division, using my largest monetary holding as the numerator. Takes me about 60 seconds to complete my calculation, which is precise. At any rate, it is your business for how you monitor/manage your portfolio. Did you read my previous threads? I don't have handy a "total value" of my portfolio at any given time...because it includes three daughter IRAs etc. And yes, I do not want to post precise numbers...for various reasons. R48
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Post by chang on Jun 3, 2023 8:15:47 GMT
I believe that constant fund trading hurts performance. As Benjamin Graham said, "The investor's chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself." As soon as you can see Fund Y has outperformed Fund X, so can everyone else on the planet. So you switch from X to Y, with no reason to believe that Y will continue to outperform X (remember that I consider "momentum" to be a fallacy). The only idea that actually holds weight is reversion to the mean, which suggests that in the future X will probably outperform Y. Hence, by always trading into the (recently) better performing fund, you will always be holding the poorer performing fund.
Disclosure: I am not interested in any debate, proofs, analysis, argument, wrangling, zoom calls, print-outs, or charts on the subject. Obviously, anyone who can spell "Google" can make any argument they want. Having recently turned 60, I think I've earned the right to believe what I want, say it once (and I do wish other people could learn how to do this), and not engage in a debate about it. (It's not as if this subject wasn't debated in 100,000 threads on M*.)
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 3, 2023 14:13:54 GMT
I believe that constant fund trading hurts performance. As Benjamin Graham said, "The investor's chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself." As soon as you can see Fund Y has outperformed Fund X, so can everyone else on the planet. So you switch from X to Y, with no reason to believe that Y will continue to outperform X (remember that I consider "momentum" to be a fallacy). The only idea that actually holds weight is reversion to the mean, which suggests that in the future X will probably outperform Y. Hence, by always trading into the (recently) better performing fund, you will always be holding the poorer performing fund. Disclosure: I am not interested in any debate, proofs, analysis, argument, wrangling, zoom calls, print-outs, or charts on the subject. Obviously, anyone who can spell "Google" can make any argument they want. Having recently turned 60, I think I've earned the right to believe what I want, say it once (and I do wish other people could learn how to do this), and not engage in a debate about it. (It's not as if this subject wasn't debated in 100,000 threads on M*.) The above is true in most cases, doesn't mean it's always true. While performance is the ultimate indicator, I think that risk-adjusted performance for most investors is more important. For many retirees low volatility is very important. I bet many would not mind losing some performance for lower volatility. "Constant fund trading hurts performance"? what does constant mean? one week, one month, every 6-12-18 months. I have to go with what I have done. I held SGII/SGENC,FAIRX,OAKBX for 8-10 years. I held PIMIX for about 8 years, several years at 50%, during this time, I traded it in/out for several weeks about 3 times. History show that these funds were top funds in these years. Just as PRWCX is a top fund for decades. Every rule/research have exceptions. You just have to find them. My research/reading proved that timing doesn't work. But it did for me. I think timing gets easier when you get older, slower, more patient, and you have more money. You already have enough, you can stay out. But wait, I'm not the only one, last year I made money when most lost, but uncleharley killed it. 2022-23 was one of the easiest timing for me since volatility makes it very clear when to trade. T/A indicators are much better during volatility. Below is what I used. Attachments:
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 3, 2023 14:16:01 GMT
From YBB "Pg 26, TRADER. Everybody, come to the stock market PARTY! The debt-ceiling issue was resolved, and Wall Street is expecting the FED to hold rates at the June FOMC. What recession? The JOB market is very strong. INFLATION is moderating. All sectors were up this week. But Dollar General/DG tanked on disappointing report indicating that consumers may be tapped out; credit card delinquencies rose.
BANK stocks are attractive now with sector fwd P/E 7 only – JPM, C, BAC, USB, STT, regionals (CFG, CMA; ETF KRE). Deposits have stabilized. Banks will face more regulations but the fears of earnings collapse are overblown.
Some tech (software, cybersecurity, communication services) and energy (ETF XLE) areas have now become DEFENSIVE plays while conventional defensive plays (utilities, consumer-staples, healthcare, dividend-stocks) have become overvalued."
The above is typical Wall St narrative. In the real world 1) The debt ceiling wasn't an issue. It must be solved 2) The Fed rate increase is another none issue. Inflation is moderating, and it takes time to see it. Another 0.25% isn't significant 3) Tech has been rallying for months. The momentum has been clear 4) Bank have been "attractive"/recommended for months now but lag badly. 5) When everybody comes to the party, it may be too late. Good traders should dance near the exit. They can take some profit now, use trailing stops, and pay close attention. QQQ 30+% advance is significant in 5 months. Diverting some money to SPY is another choice. But, the big tech effect is significant in SPY too.
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Post by Capital on Jun 3, 2023 16:40:33 GMT
The way this thread is going we should all hope for a speedy end to 2023. I just {hope} in the end "2023 makes more cents" OK I'm gone again - let the wars in here continue.
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Post by archer on Jun 3, 2023 17:05:32 GMT
The way this thread is going we should all hope for a speedy end to 2023. I just in the end "2023 makes more cents" OK I'm gone again - let the wars in here continue. We will have a speedy end on Dec 31.
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Post by flipperxxx on Jun 4, 2023 12:16:09 GMT
My research/reading proved that timing doesn't work. But it did for me. I think timing gets easier when you get older, slower, more patient, and you have more money. You already have enough, you can stay out. But wait, I'm not the only one, last year I made money when most lost, but uncleharley killed it. 2022-23 was one of the easiest timing for me since volatility makes it very clear when to trade. T/A indicators are much better during volatility. Below is what I used. and where are you now re ornax, given that it went on a three-line break buy a few days ago? me, i'm in and only slightly afraid to say so. ha!
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Post by anitya on Jun 5, 2023 19:43:11 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 5, 2023 22:44:10 GMT
It doesn't make sense, all the companies were up nicely, see chart. NVDA+AMD gained over 30% Attachments:
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Post by johnberesfordtipton on Jun 6, 2023 1:05:25 GMT
The late billionaire F Sarofim said much the same as Graham: "Nervous energy is a great destroyer of wealth."
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 6, 2023 3:45:57 GMT
The late billionaire F Sarofim said much the same as Graham: "Nervous energy is a great destroyer of wealth." Why a $72 destroys wealth? Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2023 18:46:24 GMT
Great truths need a lot of repeating example are religion and self help books. They have been saying the same thing for 3000 years and people still flock to them.
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Post by habsui on Jun 6, 2023 20:03:59 GMT
Great truths need a lot of repeating example are religion and self help books. They have been saying the same thing for 3000 years and people still flock to them. So only 2985 years to go. Not too bad..
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Post by anitya on Jun 7, 2023 1:42:33 GMT
chang, Trend following is mentioned quite a bit in this forum. I just bumped into a "Fidelity Trend Fund," FTRNX, for those interested in exploring it. It started in 1958, and at least for the past quarter a century, it has been a single manager fund. (The above is just sharing information - not posting for comments from forum.)
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Post by Capital on Jun 8, 2023 16:18:08 GMT
Well I can agree with anyone who says that 2023 has been a much better stock market year than 2022. That makes plenty of sense to me.
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Post by racqueteer on Jun 8, 2023 16:31:46 GMT
True dat...
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Post by chang on Jun 9, 2023 4:55:19 GMT
OK - Now that everyone has had their say, lets end this thread, let it die, and go on to other things. I scrubbed all the FD-related posts; I let the discussion run for a couple of days as a courtesy to let everyone have their say, despite the distraction it caused. FD has his own financial / investment forum on ProBoards. Could one of you please post a link to that forum so those that might miss FD do not have to wait until he returns to this forum? He has linked it numerous times in his posts: fd1000.freeforums.net/Moving on...
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 11, 2023 12:56:50 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2023 18:00:04 GMT
What a bull market rally.
This is not algo driving it anymore this is humans.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 12, 2023 18:21:46 GMT
What a bull market rally. This is not algo driving it anymore this is humans. How could we tell?
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Post by archer on Jun 12, 2023 18:58:05 GMT
I'm not completely trusting the this rally short term. Long term yes, short term, the market rotated into small caps and value and out of the leaders briefly, and now seems to be back on track again. The leader QQQ is nearing another resistance level. We have Fed week, and options expiration week with an unusual amount of money into in the money call premium. I view this week with uncertainty and am waiting for next week before doing any shifting. I might miss out on a good week, but if this week ends well, I think there will still be plenty of opportunity.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2023 21:48:10 GMT
What a bull market rally. This is not algo driving it anymore this is humans. How could we tell? Many billionaire investors invested in tech ai theme. Market is still quite narrow in breadth which worries some. But I read somewhere that is not abnormal.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 13, 2023 0:21:03 GMT
Many billionaire investors invested in tech ai theme. Market is still quite narrow in breadth which worries some. But I read somewhere that is not abnormal. Narrow market breadth is absolutely abnormal. In 2002, and in 2008 both times market tried to recover from bear markets only to give up as much and much more. This time is not different. I see a repeat play in slow motion. Selling more equities into the rally here.
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