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Post by FD1000 on May 30, 2023 12:39:36 GMT
My proof is my system and performance since 1995. I know, you heard it many times. Avoiding the last 3 bear markets since 2018 and joining most of the upside was a good proof. There is no guarantee ever. We can take a very low risk until death because our portfolio is big enough. Even if I just match the inflation, we have enough. My comments on this thread are for investors who believe that someone can do a decent job reading markets and how to trade it. It may help someone, or you may think it doesn't make sense. A 24-year-old stock trader who made over $8 million in 2 years shares the 4 indicators he uses as his guides to buy and sell- First is volume-weighted average price (VWAP) - The next indicator is linear regression - The next indicator is volume - Finally, he keeps his eye on the support and resistance lines - "There's this acronym: KISS, keep it simple stupid. I don't think people need super fancy indicators to make money trading. I'm just using basic trend lines, support, resistance, volume, and those are all my indicators," Kellogg said. " I think if you overcomplicate the indicators, it will actually throw off your trading because then you're trading more on the indicators than the actual price action."- His tax returns, viewed by Insider, showed that he reported over $8 million in gains from day trading in 2020 and 2021. His returns gained momentum in 2020 when he had a total income of $1.6 million. In 2021, that amount grew to a total income of $6.5 million. He started with $7,500 Yep, about 80+% I depend on 2 indicators, the rest is comparing different funds uptrend + SD.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 30, 2023 16:08:01 GMT
2023 made a lot of sense to me. Here is info I sent to my daughter, who has 85% of her large IRA in this holding, FSPTX, Fido Select Technology Fund...and it is my largest fund holding: ----------------------------------- I would also be interested in knowing what percentage of your total portfolio is represented by FSPTX. I am unable to fully understand the extent of portfolio risk/reward for you and your portfolio, using terminology of largest fund holding. Since your user name is retired48, that would be particularly helpful to older investors concerned with current risk in this market. For disclosure equality, I acknowledge that SNOXX is my largest fund holding in my portfolio, representing 1.2% of my portfolio. I actually can't answer this, as my fund percentages are not readily available in total form. Because, for "my portfolio" I include the three IRAs of my daughters, started decades ago. The holdings are not typical asset allocations for each; but rather asset allocations for me. Thus one daughter has 85% in FSPTX...mostly due internal generic growth. These daughters held these IRAs for my and/or spousal use, if needed...likely never. I also do not like to provide specific dollar values or percentages to my portfolio's as past history shows certain posters can and will abuse this info. Thus many posters hesitate because of bad past experiences. That said, one can use this for risk comparisons. My portfolio is an asset allocation type whereby I typically do not exceed 75% stocks, and have never gone (or will not go) below 50% stocks (unless market values take it their temporarily). I also invest in stock short fund hedges at times, removing some percent of equity. Currently I am perhaps around 60/40. Of this 60% stocks, key core holdings are FSPTX, one Vanguard Capital Opportunities Fund and Vanguard's VIG...Dividend growth fund...comprising more than half this allocation. So yes, this might seem high for a typical retiree, but regarding "growth", it is important to see how an investor got to their holdings over time. Like, if you are comfortable with your portfolio at a 10% growth stock invested allocation, and this growth part doubles in a year, there is no need to rush to rebalance. Because now you have more assets/money available to absorb any downturn. That's my situation. I am essentially investing for my heirs, as I "have enough." So a bigger growth tilt exists. My daughter and I will likely own FSPTX forever...until she retires (late age fifties likely).R48
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Post by FD1000 on May 30, 2023 18:30:00 GMT
It's pretty easy to calculate % or at least know, if it's about 5,10,15%. Nobody needs to post amounts.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 30, 2023 22:19:03 GMT
It's pretty easy to calculate % or at least know, if it's about 5,10,15%. Nobody needs to post amounts. Percentages can be determined from my above post, if logic used, knowing as-stated, FSPTX is my largest holding.
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Post by FD1000 on May 31, 2023 3:27:16 GMT
It's getting funnier every day. Many "experts" have missed the big tech rally, so now, they start screaming we have a bubble. On the other hand, some have no choice and now they started mumbling tech is great. Wait, you start hearing that VALUATION is really important. Basically, they were wrong to not to join the rally, and now maybe too late jumping on the train. And once again, don't try to explain markets move, just act based on that.
So far, 2022-2023 continue to provide lots of evidence why most of these experts should never manage money.
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Post by habsui on May 31, 2023 8:01:21 GMT
So what are the markets saying about Tech for the next few months or year? Looking backwards all the time doesn't help.
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Post by FD1000 on May 31, 2023 11:36:10 GMT
So what are the markets saying about Tech for the next few months or year? Looking backwards all the time doesn't help. I don't predict, I follow current markets. But, you knew the answer already. I'm putting you on ignore which is reserved for only a few.
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Post by racqueteer on May 31, 2023 12:07:53 GMT
I believe we all can agree that anyone who predicts long in advance is going to be wrong a good part of the time. That horse is well and truly dead by now, and we can probably stop beating it at this point. Otoh, ALL of us invest based on what we THINK is going to happen in the future; all that differs is the clues we use to make those bets, and the degree (and timing) with which we make them. We can also (probably) agree that the shorter the time period, the more likely it is for momentum to continue. Again, just beating a dead horse.
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Post by chang on May 31, 2023 14:07:40 GMT
I believe we all can agree that anyone who predicts long in advance is going to be wrong a good part of the time. That horse is well and truly dead by now, and we can probably stop beating it at this point. Otoh, ALL of us invest based on what we THINK is going to happen in the future; all that differs is the clues we use to make those bets, and the degree (and timing) with which we make them. We can also (probably) agree that the shorter the time period, the more likely it is for momentum to continue. Again, just beating a dead horse. I don't really agree. Two points. (1) All we can do, if we want to "do" anything (the alternative being to do nothing which, I will argue here, is actually the best LT course of action; and to me "investment" means LT, because if your horizon is only ST then you shouldn't be taking risk) is to either predict the future or look in the rear view mirror. Why: because the "present" is just an instant, separated by the past behind and the future ahead. Those are the only two choices: either take action based on what happened in the past, or what you think will happen in the future. (2) I also reject the concept of momentum. Momentum, I guess, has something to do with "direction", but this, too, is just another way of saying that you're looking in the rear view mirror. Suppose the price trend is upward during the last ten seconds ... then will the next tick be up or down? The last five minutes? The last two hours? The last week? The last month? You see, any definition of momentum just devolves into a definition of whether you're looking backward by an hour, a day, a week, a month, or a year. As for T/A, well, personally I think it's all rubbish. Just my opinion. If it wasn't, all 7.9 billion people on the planet would be millionaires. Personally, I don't think anybody has a clue where the markets are going over any time period less than 30 years. Remember TEAMX and WAGFX? All the great quant / macro / long-short / alternative / alpha managed by Harvard and Yale economists have gone down in flames. Why? Because nobody knows squat, and that includes the market. JMHO and I know I'm probably a minority of one.
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2023 14:32:10 GMT
Bravo! The minority just doubled. I concluded years ago that approaching LT investing with all the indicators and
charts is a painful, exasperating way to achieve about the same results as doing nothing if one is lucky.
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Post by racqueteer on May 31, 2023 19:15:01 GMT
I believe we all can agree that anyone who predicts long in advance is going to be wrong a good part of the time. That horse is well and truly dead by now, and we can probably stop beating it at this point. Otoh, ALL of us invest based on what we THINK is going to happen in the future; all that differs is the clues we use to make those bets, and the degree (and timing) with which we make them. We can also (probably) agree that the shorter the time period, the more likely it is for momentum to continue. Again, just beating a dead horse. I don't really agree. Two points. (1) All we can do, if we want to "do" anything (the alternative being to do nothing which, I will argue here, is actually the best LT course of action; and to me "investment" means LT, because if your horizon is only ST then you shouldn't be taking risk) is to either predict the future or look in the rear view mirror. Why: because the "present" is just an instant, separated by the past behind and the future ahead. Those are the only two choices: either take action based on what happened in the past, or what you think will happen in the future. (2) I also reject the concept of momentum. Momentum, I guess, has something to do with "direction", but this, too, is just another way of saying that you're looking in the rear view mirror. Suppose the price trend is upward during the last ten seconds ... then will the next tick be up or down? The last five minutes? The last two hours? The last week? The last month? You see, any definition of momentum just devolves into a definition of whether you're looking backward by an hour, a day, a week, a month, or a year. As for T/A, well, personally I think it's all rubbish. Just my opinion. If it wasn't, all 7.9 billion people on the planet would be millionaires. Personally, I don't think anybody has a clue where the markets are going over any time period less than 30 years. Remember TEAMX and WAGFX? All the great quant / macro / long-short / alternative / alpha managed by Harvard and Yale economists have gone down in flames. Why? Because nobody knows squat, and that includes the market. JMHO and I know I'm probably a minority of one. I don't think we're saying anything too different. We're all hoping that what we do NOW will present a benefit in the FUTURE. We look at a variety of things to do that, and prioritize the ones we believe in. So the HOW may change, but we're ALL trying to get to a better FUTURE place by doing stuff in the PRESENT - SOMETIMES by being influenced by actions in the PAST. Even the truly passive, long-term investor is 'predicting' a positive outcome based on the behaviors of the past. What varies is the confidence level about what that outcome is likely to be.
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Post by habsui on May 31, 2023 21:01:45 GMT
I was just asking what the markets are telling us about the (near) future. Saying that QQQ is doing great YTD and that many experts did not predict this is a very valid observation. But, but, now what? Will it continue? Based on what? While I have larger positions in some large tech companies, I was certainly surprised by their great performance this year.
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Post by archer on May 31, 2023 21:43:54 GMT
It's funny how different areas of life place more or less importance on history. When it comes to investing it seems there are plenty of folks who believe history (especially TA, which is nothing more than historic patterns)is meaningless. I believe this to be, at least in part, an emotional bias. On the other end of the spectrum, when it comes to marriages, (or their demise), there is the saying "Once a cheat, always a cheat", as if it up there with the laws of physics. Investing is like many endeavors in that while it is unlikely anyone will find the Holy Grail, it often is predictable to some extent.
Here's a thought: If all investors bought and held, the markets would not move. So prices go up when investors are collectively doing better than buy and hold. Since over time the markets go up more than down, investors collectively are successful.
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Post by richardsok on May 31, 2023 22:31:08 GMT
It's funny how different areas of life place more or less importance on history. When it comes to investing it seems there are plenty of folks who believe history (especially TA, which is nothing more than historic patterns)is meaningless. I believe this to be, at least in part, an emotional bias. On the other end of the spectrum, when it comes to marriages, (or their demise), there is the saying "Once a cheat, always a cheat", as if it up there with the laws of physics. Investing is like many endeavors in that while it is unlikely anyone will find the Holy Grail, it often is predictable to some extent. Here's a thought: If all investors bought and held, the markets would not move. So prices go up when investors are collectively doing better than buy and hold. Since over time the markets go up more than down, investors collectively are successful. But you're wrong, archie. In the case of assets with low volatilities, past chart patterns DO give meaningful clues to the future. Look at the three-month chart of IBM below showing very short term moving averages (3 x 14) and confirmed with the MACD underneath it. Check for yourself -- EVERY time the lines cross, a high-probability prediction of the next couple of weeks is created. Test me on this by running similar scans of QQQ, FFC, JPC, PDO, EHI, HYLD, HIX, FINS, GOAU, PFD, OXY, SQQQ, GGN, HYLD, etc etc. Notice, when your signal is wrong, it is wrong on a relatively small amount but when it is correct (far more often than 50/50) your gains or loss-avoidances are typically MUCH greater. Of course, the method is not foolproof. In cases where the stock is volatile or the price flat-lines over time, the moving averages and the MACD also tends to flat-line close together and lose their predictive efficacy. As some will remember, I wrote my book on this very topic.
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Post by archer on May 31, 2023 23:43:56 GMT
richardsok ,per your post, "past chart patterns DO give meaningful clues to the future." Exactly! That is what I am trying to say. I reread my post and am not seeing where I am on the side of past history not being indicative of future likelihood. I was responding to posts that seem to regard market prediction as not being much better than a crap shoot.....However, even shooting craps have increased odds of predictability after enough rolls.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 1, 2023 2:58:09 GMT
richardsok ,per your post, "past chart patterns DO give meaningful clues to the future." Exactly! That is what I am trying to say. I reread my post and am not seeing where I am on the side of past history not being indicative of future likelihood. I was responding to posts that seem to regard market prediction as not being much better than a crap shoot.....However, even shooting craps have increased odds of predictability after enough rolls. My mistake. Should have read yr post more carefully.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2023 3:13:31 GMT
What this tech/AI rally shows is market timings is incredibly hard even when every one was/is so sure of coming recession and crash for some time now.
Many people who sold tech in last one year would be regretting. I sold Meta (facebook) last year and I am regretting. I did not sell other big techs though.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2023 3:19:59 GMT
I also understand why people like r48 are long term holders of funds like FSPTX even with so much volatility that tech has.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 1, 2023 3:40:12 GMT
Let me offer several comments: 1) I agree that most shouldn't try timing, momentum, and the rest, that doesn't mean nobody should do it or no one can do it. 2) Most of my system is online. The performance is there too. The best proof was 2018-2022 where I beat SPY with extreme low performance. I believe that in order to do that you follow very concentrated portfolio, never be diversified, and follow a written system. BTW, owning only SPY as Buffett recommended means you are not diversified. 3) The system got a much better results at retirement because lower volatility SD funds are easier and more accurate to trade. Bond funds are really slow. 4) The best aspect is how not to lose money. I don't care if I miss, even 60-70% success helped me avoided even small losses. Actually, the system becomes a lot more powerful when markets have a very high volatility. I sold early everything, and bought back everything and from that point it's much easier to make money. 5) The funniest thing is, many, including on this and other sites continue to hold lagging funds for years, do a lot more trading, trade small % which don't have a big affect, when market crash their portfolio suffer, and most continue to have lower risk-adjusted return than the indexes. 6) I'm very thankful that most don't believe my system is doable or suspect all my posts. Imagine thousands of investors practicing my system, it will lose it's edge, and flexibility. A couple of years ago I realized that after another great trader brought up to my attention. Why would I want to convince anyone and/or fight about it?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2023 3:55:10 GMT
FD - Actually your system does avoid some one staying in underperforming assets for long time. Which I agree is important for good returns. example of underperforming asset classes is tech from 2000-2010 and value and international from 2010 till now.
So I am not sure how to reconcile these two seemingly correct approaches to investing.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 1, 2023 3:55:49 GMT
What this tech/AI rally shows is market timings is incredibly hard even when every one was/is so sure of coming recession and crash for some time now. Many people who sold tech in last one year would be regretting. I sold Meta (facebook) last year and I am regretting. I did not sell other big techs though. You are not looking at the right places. If I didn't read any article, I can still do it. You got to know where to look and what funds to search. Suppose it's 01-01-2023. Look at the chart below for 2 known funds QQQ VS SCHD. By week 3-4 into 2023 it was very clear who is in the lead. I never care why? I leave it to the "experts" on TV to make a fool of themselves trying to explain why. Trading stocks is a lot more difficult and complicated. By the time someone has 20-30 positions, there is no way to get a handle on good trading. Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2023 4:01:22 GMT
That is brilliant. If I check say 4 etfs monthly - QQQ, SCHD and VSUX and one for US mid/small. I should have fair idea of where momentum is going.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 1, 2023 4:01:51 GMT
FD - Actually your system does avoid some one staying in underperforming assets for long time. Which I agree is important for good returns. example of underperforming asset classes is tech from 2000-2010 and value and international from 2010 till now. So I am not sure how to reconcile these two seemingly correct approaches to investing. How to reconcile? all on my site. 1995-2000: great for SPY+QQQ 2000-2009(10 years): both lose money. SC, value, international make money 2010-2021(12 years): great for SPY+QQQ The above is over 26-27 years.
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Post by mnfish on Jun 1, 2023 11:34:22 GMT
FD1000 , "The best proof was 2018-2022 where I beat SPY with extreme low performance. I believe that in order to do that you follow very concentrated portfolio, never be diversified" PortVis results state - SPY was up 56% Jan 2018 to Dec 2022 QQQ was up 77% in the same period mnfish investing results - Taxable +58%, IRA 1 +22%, IRA2 +51%, IRA3 +38%, IRA4 +40% FD was up ___% Please fill in the blank --- and do you mean extreme low SD?
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 1, 2023 13:11:51 GMT
FD1000 , "The best proof was 2018-2022 where I beat SPY with extreme low performance. I believe that in order to do that you follow very concentrated portfolio, never be diversified" PortVis results state - SPY was up 56% Jan 2018 to Dec 2022 QQQ was up 77% in the same period mnfish investing results - Taxable +58%, IRA 1 +22%, IRA2 +51%, IRA3 +38%, IRA4 +40% FD was up ___% Please fill in the blank --- and do you mean extreme low SD? It's all documented ( here). I used a snipping tool to copy it directly from our Schwab accounts. I never lost more than 1% from any last top. BTW, my goals in retirement is to beat 30-40% stocks + never lose more than 3% from any last top. I was "lucky" to beat SPY. ========= Steady "How do some/most threads devolve into "my system is great" theme? And to what end do we keep pushing that theme?" FD: I hope no one would practice it. Already explained why.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 1, 2023 13:26:39 GMT
How do some/most threads devolve into "my system is great" theme? And to what end do we keep pushing that theme? I know old habits are hard to break but - people - let us try. Can we? I guess FD & I are two of the parties guilty of theory-repetition. If someone else wants to put together an opportunistic overbought/oversold trading philosophy backed up with specifics, I'd be glad to read it. If you're going to argue deep security analysis, I'd request specific markers to use. Xray gives us a lot of posts specifying results of his "numb3rs" system, which are always interesting -- but (unless I've missed it) never seems to describe what the "numb3rs" system actually is. LordXot's tactics worked beautifully -- until they didn't. Yogi and harley are worthy of emulation, each in his own very different way, but I'm not sure how one might try to emulate their thinking -- or exactly what their thinking involves. There are others I'd like to hear from in this vein. I especially lament the disappearance of Sara, who was exceptionally intelligent but seemed to keep her methodology or "whys" very private.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 1, 2023 16:18:26 GMT
My thinking is short term. My thought is that if I take care of today and tomorrow, the long term will arrive in due time, but it will be short term when it gets here. Consequently I have found that charts of daily and weekly charting are very valuable for determining where and why the markets are going today and/or next week. Several years ago I also purchased a hard cover book named The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. It was written by Thomas Bulkowski. The book is best used as a reference about chart patterns and their usefulness for doing projections. An important item that I have learned is that the farther out a projection goes, the less accurate it becomes. The older that data is the less relevant it is. My portfolio is, IMHO, a balanced portfolio with a number of high yielding CEFS and a couple of leveraged equity positions which are traded frequently to offset the volatility of the CEFS.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 1, 2023 21:31:39 GMT
How do some/most threads devolve into "my system is great" theme? And to what end do we keep pushing that theme? I know old habits are hard to break but - people - let us try. Can we? I guess FD & I are two of the parties guilty of theory-repetition. If someone else wants to put together an opportunistic overbought/oversold trading philosophy backed up with specifics, I'd be glad to read it. If you're going to argue deep security analysis, I'd request specific markers to use. Xray gives us a lot of posts specifying results of his "numb3rs" system, which are always interesting -- but (unless I've missed it) never seems to describe what the "numb3rs" system actually is. LordXot's tactics worked beautifully -- until they didn't. Yogi and harley are worthy of emulation, each in his own very different way, but I'm not sure how one might try to emulate their thinking -- or exactly what their thinking involves. There are others I'd like to hear from in this vein. I especially lament the disappearance of Sara, who was exceptionally intelligent but seemed to keep her methodology or "whys" very private. richardsok, it is one thing to have a trading/investing philosophy but it is another (thing) to say "my system is great." Your posts never particularly struck me as claiming to have a flair of "my system is great" language.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 2, 2023 3:57:59 GMT
This thread is away to how I think. In my view, the 24/7 media BS is just bait and click. Other 'experts' fill the air with worries that have marginal affect, at least for me. 2 good examples: 1) The debt ceiling is a none issue to me, it can't happen or at least can't last long. 2) Fed hikes are a none issue when we are talking about another 0.25%
Lastly, talk doesn't carry a lot of weight for me. Everything must be reflected in the charts in real time. Where QQQ is going to be in 1-4-12 weeks? I don't have a clue. Look at the chart and trade based on your specific criteria.
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Post by chang on Jun 2, 2023 9:56:08 GMT
Everything must be reflected in the charts in real time. As I said above ( link), I disagree: I don't think "real time" tells you anything. There is only the past (very concerete, but is it actionable?) and the future (who has a crystal ball?). I don't believe in "momentum" as a concept with any actionable, useful value. Again, I realize that most everyone here will disagree with me. I am quite Bogleheadish when it comes to the "stay the course" mentality. (Where I am definitely not Bogleheadish is when it comes to using actively managed funds. I do use them, but I will hold them very-long term [and will tolerate periods of underperformance] unless something happens which fundamentally alters my original analysis.) It seems to me, FD, that you ply a very low risk/low return strategy. You never want to lose more than 1% from the current top; OK, I get that. But I think that's a terrible strategy for a LT investor.
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