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Post by Fearchar on Jun 13, 2023 1:08:39 GMT
 Above chart is from BlackRocks report earlier today. Since COVID, the market is not as coupled as it was prior. 2023.06.12.pdf (332.47 KB) |
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Post by anitya on Jun 13, 2023 1:48:48 GMT
Based on that chart, it seems to me the current dispersion is about average of it has been since 2019, which is not what I was expecting given the drum beat of narrow breadth punditry by market commentators. If that chart is correct, looks like the market could continue to go up more without being an outlier run up, especially when we take into account the new paradigm shift from AI fever. |
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Post by mnfish on Jun 13, 2023 12:44:51 GMT
Wells' Scott Wrens last commentary note was titled "Narrow" in regard to the recent rally.
Another Wells letter showed a chart of rolling 5 month returns comparing the equal weighted and cap weighted SP500 stocks. Only 4 other periods, 1990, 1999-2001, 2008, and 2020 have matched the current narrow market.
Wells is still calling for a recession to begin this year (actually "in the coming months")
I posted this last week on the SCHD thread.
SPY top ten stocks are 29.8% of holdings. So $10k in SPY = $2,980 in top ten stocks.
Top ten have a 57.4% gain YTD or a $1,710 gain YTD on $2,980.
$10k in SPY YTD has a 12% gain for $1,200
So, the other 490 stocks have produced a $510 loss YTD.
Ticker Weight YTD
AAPL 7.38% 42.00%
MSFT 6.72% 35.00%
AMZN 3.01% 41.00%
NVDA 2.57% 163.00%
GOOGL 2.03% 37.00%
GOOG 1.78% 37.00%
BRK.B 1.68% 8.00%
TSLA 1.68% 107.00%
META 1.63% 111.00%
UNH 1.25% -7.00%
29.80% 57.40% avg
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2023 20:59:50 GMT
I just read China continues to be un-investable. Germany & Europe are in recession. And say US will follow them into recession.
But stock market is forward looking and this is most anticipated recession for a while so shouldn't it all be already reflected in stock market.
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Post by archer on Jun 15, 2023 21:31:28 GMT
I just read China continues to be un-investable. Germany & Europe are in recession. And say US will follow them into recession. But stock market is forward looking and this is most anticipated recession for a while so shouldn't it all be already reflected in stock market. I think it recession would be reflected in the stock market if there was going to be one any time soon. Money flows into aggressive areas, especially transportation, and discretionary tell me recession is not in the picture. I'll change my view when the market changes. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 15, 2023 22:23:07 GMT
Market is certainly defying the bears. I am selling into this rally, and time may prove me wrong. But that is okay, there will be an opportunity to buy back at lower prices.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2023 23:17:01 GMT
As per reports, Europe and Germany entered recession in Q1, 2023. Let us see how EU stock markets respond to it. They are not driven by the big tech either.
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Post by gman57 on Jun 16, 2023 1:33:07 GMT
Market is certainly defying the bears. I am selling into this rally, and time may prove me wrong. But that is okay, there will be an opportunity to buy back at lower prices. maybe..... |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 16, 2023 1:43:05 GMT
FWIW, I am net long equities primarily thru my position in TQQQ. The trend points up on all major stock indexes.
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Post by anitya on Jun 16, 2023 19:53:36 GMT
FWIW, I am net long equities primarily thru my position in TQQQ. The trend points up on all major stock indexes. I was waiting to see if you would close out before the three weekend. I guess I am still not buying SQQQ! This is the first Friday relative to past few Fridays, indices (esp QQQs) are not closing higher on day - option expiration likely has something to do with it. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 17, 2023 11:47:58 GMT
FWIW, I am net long equities primarily thru my position in TQQQ. The trend points up on all major stock indexes. I was waiting to see if you would close out before the three weekend. I guess I am still not buying SQQQ! This is the first Friday relative to past few Fridays, indices (esp QQQs) are not closing higher on day - option expiration likely has something to do with it. Unless you are an adept day trader, I do not think this is a time to be short any domestic equities. JMHO and subject to change. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 17, 2023 12:13:21 GMT
Same here!! The weekly charts for both the S&P 500 and the NDX 100 have worked there way thru a band of resistance which is now support. The past six weeks of trading have been positive for the S&P 500. The trend for both charts is mildly parabolic. They are both mildly overbought. Minute traders may have a problem with friday afternoons selloff, but I am enjoying the ride.
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Post by fred495 on Jun 17, 2023 18:15:13 GMT
Interesting article by Joe Rennison in yesterday's NYT about some of the risks that are ahead in the market and that the recent rise could be a bear market rally — a short-lived stretch of optimism within a longer-running trend downward. For example:
- Inflation has come down but remains high. That may lead the Fed to push rates higher and leave them high for longer, squeezing the economy.
- As debts with low interest rates come due, borrowers face much steeper costs to refinance, a particular worry for the commercial real estate market.
- Consumers' savings have begun to run low and credit card balances have risen.
While some investor's see trouble ahead, I try to remain cautiously optimistic, but also keep dancing near the exit. Especially when the alternative of earning 5% risk free is not exactly a shabby proposition for a conservative and retired investor. Since I don't have uncleharley's golden touch, I frequently need to remind myself to err on the side of caution, particularly at this stage of my life.
Good luck,
Fred
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Post by archer on Jun 17, 2023 18:34:43 GMT
fred495, I find myself feeling the same way about cash earning 5%, but I also have my doubts. I can't find a history of MM vs inflation. I wonder if the current ratio is favorable to past time periods, and what the lag is as inflation has moved up and down.
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Post by anitya on Jun 17, 2023 18:37:56 GMT
I was waiting to see if you would close out before the three weekend. I guess I am still not buying SQQQ! This is the first Friday relative to past few Fridays, indices (esp QQQs) are not closing higher on day - option expiration likely has something to do with it. Unless you are an adept day trader, I do not think this is a time to be short any domestic equities. JMHO and subject to change. Agree. I found out shorting is a lot harder, especially because too many people are rooting for the economy’s / stock market’s success. Too many people, including all the execs and employees of the company, politicians, bureaucrats, etc. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 17, 2023 21:41:19 GMT
Copied from Charlie Bilello -
Price to Earnings Ratios...
Amazon: 301
NVIDIA: 224
Tesla: 76
Netflix: 47
Microsoft: 37
Facebook: 34
Apple: 32
Google: 28
S&P 500: 25
Price to Sales Ratios...
NVIDIA: 42
Microsoft: 12
Tesla: 10
Apple: 7.7
Facebook: 6.3
Netflix: 6.3
Google: 5.7
Amazon: 2.5
S&P 500: 2.4
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 17, 2023 22:35:15 GMT
Wow, S&P forward looking PE is 25? That is not good no matter how you look at it. I need to further trim my equity holdings. And hide out in a cave with a bunch of treasuries in my pocket.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 17, 2023 22:57:18 GMT
Charlie Bilello didn't mention in his Tweet, but at least for the SP500, that is TRAILING P/E, as noted by Barron's too (25.53, 6/19/23, pg 50).
I think that SP500 FORWARD P/E is about 18 (M* shows 18.82; Yardeni 19.00; WSJ 20.12) - some variations are expected in forward P/E based on earnings estimates.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 17, 2023 23:02:47 GMT
Charlie Bilello didn't mention in his Tweet, but at least for the SP500, that is TRAILING P/E, as noted by Barron's too (25.53, 6/19/23, pg 50). I think that SP500 FORWARD P/E is about 18 (M* shows 18.82; Yardeni 19.00; WSJ 20.12) - some variations are expected in forward P/E based on earnings estimates. Thanks yogibearbull. Glad to know forward PE is about 18, and I guess the risk would be if a recession were to occur and the E comes down. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 18, 2023 8:23:26 GMT
Sorry, I know Charlie did not mention but I thought it was obvious that it is trailing.
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 28, 2023 14:26:27 GMT
Well, I haven't been posting much on this thread so here it goes 1) The year opened well with value stocks + CEFs. Within a couple of months growth took over 2) I thought bonds would do better but most didn't because rates keep going up. Bank loan were the best category with YTD>8.7+% ( schrts.co/XRsSZizp). 3) Investing in treasury funds with ST to LT(TLT,VGIT,VGSH) duration continue to be the wrong choice and what I have posted now for more than 1.5 years(schrts.co/XgwIHsJQ). MM made more with no risk/SD and RPHIX made more than that. For YTD=( schrts.co/FEFdeSSd). RPHIX continues to deliver in one of the toughest markets. 4) SPY...RSP(equal weight SP500)..QQQ...PTY...FAFRX The "stupid" simple index SPY is up 8.6% RSP is losing money YTD at -4.1% QQQ is up 30.2% PTY(CEF) is one of the best is up 14+% but PDI (the most discussed CEF ever) is down more than 3% YTD. FAFRX=great bank loan is up 10.85%. Basically, most of the year performance is concentrated in the big 7-10 high tech companies while most others(RSP) lost money. While many bond funds lost money, bank loan shine and easily beat the SP500 for risk/reward....which leads me to 5) Diversification again took away from your performance. Stocks: YTD:...IWM(SC) lost 5.9%...EEM lost 2.9%...VGK(Europe) made just 2.1 and VT(world) made 4.7 ( schrts.co/ImVZVmsU). The easy LT hold SPY is at 8.6% Bonds: DODIX+VWALX(higher-rated) lost money( schrts.co/jNPXZKnJ). RCTIX(better than PIMIX) made 4.5% but Bank loans + the 3 funds managed by Sherman had a much better risk/reward. ( schrts.co/SmSbEVEv). There are several others. My big picture of only 2 choices = IN or OUT(very high risk) = IN and why I'm invested at 99+%. So far in 2023, it's better than 2022 but not really a good year. Nov-Dec have a chance to deliver better performance. Me think, next positive MACD on SPY is a buy signal. While it was difficult to make money in bonds (unless you were in the right funds), it will get easier as time passes because rates are pretty high and it's getting closer. |
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 1, 2023 21:50:45 GMT
In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance.
SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy
VIX is down
Other stuff looks better too.
Momo looks good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing.
==============
You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ.
Earlier in the year I posted that value looks better, based on 2022, but within several weeks, growth started to lead again.
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 3, 2023 2:19:22 GMT
In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance. SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy VIX is down Other stuff looks better too. Momo looks good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing. ============== You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ. Earlier in the year I posted that value looks better, based on 2022, but within several weeks, growth started to lead again. Actionable and timely; nice! |
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Post by Chahta on Nov 3, 2023 11:50:13 GMT
In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance. SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy VIX is down Other stuff looks better too. Momo looks good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing. ============== You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ. Earlier in the year I posted that value looks better, based on 2022, but within several weeks, growth started to lead again. Just be sure to publish the sell signal too.  |
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Post by Norbert on Nov 4, 2023 4:15:40 GMT
In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance. SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy VIX is down Other stuff looks better too. Momo looks good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing. ============== You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ. Earlier in the year I posted that value looks better, based on 2022, but within several weeks, growth started to lead again. If I understand correctly, you think this week's rally is sustainable. It's more than just an oversold, dead cat bounce driven by short covering. (Apologies for the morbid analogy.) There's good short-term momo, plus confirmation by the Vix. Is that right? |
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 4, 2023 13:16:48 GMT
In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance. SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy VIX is down Other stuff looks better too. Momo looks good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing. ============== You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ. Earlier in the year I posted that value looks better, based on 2022, but within several weeks, growth started to lead again. If I understand correctly, you think this week's rally is sustainable. It's more than just an oversold, dead cat bounce driven by short covering. (Apologies for the morbid analogy.) There's good short-term momo, plus confirmation by the Vix. Is that right? I think FD would say, "that's what the charts suggest". It is, of course, anyone's guess at this point. I'm with FD on this one, though, and placed my bets accordingly. All one can do (if trading) is to evaluate the likelihood of this or that occurring and reacting accordingly. Since a few people covered their shorts, I'd say that FD has a bit of company with this call; no? |
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 4, 2023 13:49:41 GMT
racqueteer , Many look for reasons, I stick with simpler approach. Under/Over value don't exist ST(weeks-months) and sometimes for years. I have no idea about short covering because I don't look for it and I don't know when it started and how long. I always listen to the Fed. The Fed blinked on Wed. The charts sensed it even sooner, the chart confirmed it. Most stock+bond fund lost in the last several weeks, usually they recover some or all. I changed 80% of my portfolio last week that I held for several months. My previous funds are still good but why not make more for several days-weeks. Small changes do not make sense to me, never did. I also said before that usually it's that time of the year. I would stick to what worked lately (weeks-months) and wide range funds. I don't know why investors look for bottoms for a narrow sector or what MAY do better (gold, health care, energy, value) when something has been working for months (SPY,QQQ) I use the 3 C=concise,clear,concentrated When will I sell? no idea, the chart and uptrend will tell me what to do. I actually mad at myself why I didn't change 100%, I got lazy. These periods are the ones where one week can equal several months of performance..
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Post by newtecher on Nov 5, 2023 3:48:19 GMT
I always listen to the Fed. The Fed blinked on Wed. What does this mean? The Fed did not blink on Wed any more than in the last several meetings. The rate was unchanged, the comments as expected. |
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Post by anitya on Nov 5, 2023 8:32:22 GMT
Do you guys know what CRDBX did Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday? It stood still - zero - reflects the manager's positioning. Their website has his commentary posted pre-market on Thursday on why he is positioned that way. Luckily I do not manage money and do not have to answer to anybody.
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Post by Karen on Nov 5, 2023 11:13:15 GMT
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