|
Post by retiredat48 on Jun 14, 2021 5:03:57 GMT
FD...good to see you posting. I just let my spouse read a thread from another forum (I got posts via e-mail from another), and she has standing orders to follow the good guidance!
R48
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 14, 2021 7:33:35 GMT
FD: Nice work to find the interview date. I've never found YTD numbers meaningful. On February 1st they tell you one month's result; on July 1st they tell you 6 months' result. What good is a moving target? Not to belabor the obvious, but the rear view mirror is of little use, except perhaps to indicate which investments are lagging and therefore deserve special consideration as candidates for reversion to the mean. Canada was a good pick for me. EM and gold haven't paid off YTD ... but then again, YTD doesn't mean anything to me. (Incidentally, not all EM is "EEM"!) My money is still going into EM funds now. As for finding funds that beat the S&P 500, well that's just Google 101 isn't it? AVALX is up 42% YTD (and its top holdings are brimming with precious metals miners ... go figure!).
|
|
|
Post by paulr888 on Jun 14, 2021 13:25:04 GMT
The problem with searching for better and swapping better for what you have you are always selling lower and buying higher. That is why there is a drop off from what a fund returns and what an average investor in the fund returned. To me, the best approach is to construct a solid portfolio and stick with it best you can through long cycle. There will be marginal changes due to various reasons but that should be the exception rather than the rule. Yes you will go through periods of underperformance to another fund but good funds will mean revert. I am not a fan of wholesale looking for what is working and constantly running to where the puck is.
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 14, 2021 13:44:22 GMT
The problem with searching for better and swapping better for what you have you are always selling lower and buying higher. That is why there is a drop off from what a fund returns and what an average investor in the fund returned. To me, the best approach is to construct a solid portfolio and stick with it best you can through long cycle. There will be marginal changes due to various reasons but that should be the exception rather than the rule. Yes you will go through periods of underperformance to another fund but good funds will mean revert. I am not a fan of wholesale looking for what is working and constantly running to where the puck is. WORD. The above is one of those Pro Board "Print it and Frame it" posts, IMO.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jun 14, 2021 14:18:13 GMT
Printing & framing is OLD way. The NEW way is crypto NFTs that can be used to preserve almost anything but may cost few hundred bucks (probably same as a good frame) .
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jun 14, 2021 20:01:56 GMT
My point was to show the article's prediction were off, the article is talking about shorter-term (2021) good choices and why I mentioned YTD. Longer term, gold was terrible and EM has been lagging the US over 10 years.
I have read so many articles/opinions for years by many "experts" prediction to be off. I can easily show predictions made by very well known experts to be hugely off/wrong and I can also show that several indicators (PE, inverted yield...) are not good predictors of future market performance. The Fed has been the biggest influence since 2008.
Options: 1) KISS, use mainly indexes + some managed 2) Use flexible managers/funds 3) Use good risk/reward funds 4) DIY, I believe in good performance lately, none of my funds lag its category for months, I don't believe in too much diversification...examples: if US stocks are better than international I mainly use US stocks. If growth is better than value, I would use mainly growth but SP500 would be a great easy choice for most. 5) Look outside the box. Many experts generalize. Example: when rates are going up, bonds lose. YTD: rates were up, higher-rate (BND) bonds lost -1.9% YTD but several HY Munis made 5-7% 6) Look at other main stream options, maybe look at categories. If rates suppose to go up then finance/banking should do well. I rather "gamble" on that than on gold. 7) If you are a good trader, then trade
BTW, the big money was already made since the March 2020 meltdown.
Looking at the 3 options of EM,gold,Canada, for most, I would only gamble on EM. It's a significant category with a LT good potential. My crystal ball says that it's about time for EM to be better than the US, if not, next year or years, after all, the "experts" have been saying that for several years already.
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 14, 2021 20:10:20 GMT
FD1000, pretty sage advice, IMO. Especially 1, 2, 3, speaking for myself. ...with a touch of 7 🪘
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 15, 2021 3:58:22 GMT
The problem with searching for better and swapping better for what you have you are always selling lower and buying higher. That is why there is a drop off from what a fund returns and what an average investor in the fund returned. To me, the best approach is to construct a solid portfolio and stick with it best you can through long cycle. There will be marginal changes due to various reasons but that should be the exception rather than the rule. Yes you will go through periods of underperformance to another fund but good funds will mean revert. I am not a fan of wholesale looking for what is working and constantly running to where the puck is. Agree. Good way to minimize returns and maximize taxes. To a certain extent this goes for shifting AA as well as hopping funds. In the last 6 months growth and value have switched leads three times. Someone chasing them would probably be 180° out of synch and underperform everything. I make minor tweaks and decide where to put new money, but my general rule is to do nothing for three years after making a decision.
|
|
|
Post by paulr888 on Jun 15, 2021 6:05:21 GMT
(Deleted by OP)
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 15, 2021 6:37:42 GMT
Kindly permit me to jump in with a reminder about the "Mission Statement". I realize that intelligent, vigorous debate requires, if not demands, holding others to account for their views and statements. But the reality of internet life is that it is too easy to end up getting personal and having food fights. There are other forums that serve as willing platforms for that. This forum was conceived to offer an alternative. (In a parallel vein, I've avoided hosting a politics forum for similar reasons: spillover of vitriol, distraction from investing, etc.) That doesn't mean people need to feel like they're walking on eggshells. That's the last thing we ought to have happen. But just as every dog gets one bite, please make your one personal quip if you need to and leave it at that. I bite my tongue sometimes, because I read things here that I think are nonsense. But I keep reminding myself that I learn nothing from people who agree with me. If I have to read 99 nonsensical comments to find just one that makes me re-think my assumptions and perhaps alter my thinking, it's worth it. The most useful dialogue involves confronting opinions, challenging conventional wisdom, tactful pushback and constructive criticism. Don't hold back! But please exercise reasonable restraint if a point has been made and battle lines have been drawn. Personally, I feel a little more compulsion to be gentle and compassionate because I am the host, and I do not want any member to think that I have denigrated them. Everyone else should feel free to mingle uninhibitedly, but may I suggest you confront others exactly as you would do at a coffeehouse with everyone else listening in. Remember there is a Private Message feature, and you can conduct offline communications, which can be as salty as you like.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2021 13:24:55 GMT
That phallic symbol avatar is a 'bit' too much for me.
|
|
|
Post by racqueteer on Jun 15, 2021 13:48:19 GMT
Kindly permit me to jump in with a reminder about the "Mission Statement". I realize that intelligent, vigorous debate requires, if not demands, holding others to account for their views and statements. But the reality of internet life is that it is too easy to end up getting personal and having food fights. There are other forums that serve as willing platforms for that. This forum was conceived to offer an alternative. (In a parallel vein, I've avoided hosting a politics forum for similar reasons: spillover of vitriol, distraction from investing, etc.) That doesn't mean people need to feel like they're walking on eggshells. That's the last thing we ought to have happen. But just as every dog gets one bite, please make your one personal quip if you need to and leave it at that. I bite my tongue sometimes, because I read things here that I think are nonsense. But I keep reminding myself that I learn nothing from people who agree with me. If I have to read 99 nonsensical comments to find just one that makes me re-think my assumptions and perhaps alter my thinking, it's worth it. The most useful dialogue involves confronting opinions, challenging conventional wisdom, tactful pushback and constructive criticism. Don't hold back! But please exercise reasonable restraint if a point has been made and battle lines have been drawn. Personally, I feel a little more compulsion to be gentle and compassionate because I am the host, and I do not want any member to think that I have denigrated them. Everyone else should feel free to mingle uninhibitedly, but may I suggest you confront others exactly as you would do at a coffeehouse with everyone else listening in. Remember there is a Private Message feature, and you can conduct offline communications, which can be as salty as you like. Agree totally. Investing doesn't have a recipe that one simply follows and success is thereby guaranteed. Opinions will vary on how to proceed; so people ARE going to disagree. Opinions are not always rigorously logical and evidence-based; so YOU have to decide what to make of the posted commentary. MOST people are not completely logical; nor are they open-minded. I've learned that expecting people to process as I do is unreasonable; so I don't expect it. Life is short! I'm not going to convince someone who doesn't wish to be convinced; so why annoy myself with arguments? Make your point; support it with your evidence and thinking; then let it go. Do something you enjoy (hopefully, not arguing)! 8^b
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 15, 2021 14:03:37 GMT
Kindly permit me to jump in with a reminder about the "Mission Statement". I realize that intelligent, vigorous debate requires, if not demands, holding others to account for their views and statements. But the reality of internet life is that it is too easy to end up getting personal and having food fights. There are other forums that serve as willing platforms for that. This forum was conceived to offer an alternative. (In a parallel vein, I've avoided hosting a politics forum for similar reasons: spillover of vitriol, distraction from investing, etc.) That doesn't mean people need to feel like they're walking on eggshells. That's the last thing we ought to have happen. But just as every dog gets one bite, please make your one personal quip if you need to and leave it at that. I bite my tongue sometimes, because I read things here that I think are nonsense. But I keep reminding myself that I learn nothing from people who agree with me. If I have to read 99 nonsensical comments to find just one that makes me re-think my assumptions and perhaps alter my thinking, it's worth it. The most useful dialogue involves confronting opinions, challenging conventional wisdom, tactful pushback and constructive criticism. Don't hold back! But please exercise reasonable restraint if a point has been made and battle lines have been drawn. Personally, I feel a little more compulsion to be gentle and compassionate because I am the host, and I do not want any member to think that I have denigrated them. Everyone else should feel free to mingle uninhibitedly, but may I suggest you confront others exactly as you would do at a coffeehouse with everyone else listening in. Remember there is a Private Message feature, and you can conduct offline communications, which can be as salty as you like. Agreed. Also, I know there is sometimes a "history of conflict" between parties from other sites, etc. It's great that this site can mostly be a sane refuge. I will sometimes reference elements I agree with from a poster I frequently disagree with to promote cordial respect. There is no one size fits all for investments. There are too many variables; temperament, skill/experience, other sources of income, size of portfolio, etc. A site like this can best be utilized where our preconceived ideas are challenged, but we freely come to our own conclusions and express them freely. Excepting that, a Big-Bang paintball and tequila party might be a good idea sometime! Stay well, RM
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jun 15, 2021 14:08:25 GMT
I have not found much success in gold, foreign or EM unless my funds have done so. Don't see a need for me. It's about a port that provides a living and some growth. There are many ways to be successful investing. I have been lucky making a few bucks trading, but generally most of my mistakes are selling too soon, which can lead to lost profit or realized losses. I like #1-#3 from FD's post above but will never spend a long time looking for the best funds to replace another (I let him do that for me ). Besides 90% of my equities are indexes. Now bonds take a more active approach at times. To me that generally means is it time for LT, IT, ST, muni or BL funds this year.
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 15, 2021 16:40:41 GMT
MACD is turning up on the silver ETF's indicating that the horse is out of the barn and the race has begun. Yo, uncleharley, Does "Hi-Yo Silver" need to be renamed "Low-Yo, Silver"? Does it just need to be re-shod or did it break its leg? Interested in your thoughts. TIA
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Jun 16, 2021 1:08:06 GMT
No Broken legs. No reshoeing necessary. The damn starting pistol misfired and the gun needs to be reloaded. Feds statement tomorrow should get everything started. Todays trading patterns were disappointing, but the prices on silver and associated etf's are above support. Bolinger bands are the narrowists that they have been in recent history indicating a break out is imminent. Tomorrow at 2pm est should tell the story.
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 16, 2021 1:12:51 GMT
I'm interested in sticking my toe in the water, but have been holding firm to my limit order for SIVR @ $26. I'll check again tomorrow. Since I'm 11 hours ahead of EST, the only way I'll get a peek at the markets at 2PM is if I wake up to pee.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jun 16, 2021 1:32:44 GMT
Wow, I have owned silver for 45 years. I bought 5-1 OZ. coins for $5 each back them. You telling me they are worth 5 times as much now? I cut a fat hog.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Jun 16, 2021 1:35:06 GMT
I'm interested in sticking my toe in the water, but have been holding firm to my limit order for SIVR @ $26. I'll check again tomorrow. Since I'm 11 hours ahead of EST, the only way I'll get a peek at the markets at 2PM is if I wake up to pee. LOL. Wait until you get older and you don't sleep well........
|
|
|
Post by cactusjack on Jun 16, 2021 1:54:33 GMT
Amen, my friend. The lights go on at 4:00AM all over my neighborhood, then back off at 4:10.
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 16, 2021 2:24:06 GMT
No Broken legs. No reshoeing necessary. The damn starting pistol misfired and the gun needs to be reloaded. Feds statement tomorrow should get everything started. Todays trading patterns were disappointing, but the prices on silver and associated etf's are above support. Bolinger bands are the narrowists that they have been in recent history indicating a break out is imminent. Tomorrow at 2pm est should tell the story. uncleharley, I gotta tell you, right or wrong, you make a stand. I admire that. I'll be honest and admit my concept of TA is basically parallel to a horoscope. Make me a believer! I'm pulling for you, Unc!
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Jun 16, 2021 2:54:45 GMT
That phallic symbol avatar is a 'bit' too much for me. Just FYI - options in profile allow one to hide all avatars.
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 16, 2021 6:40:06 GMT
That phallic symbol avatar is a 'bit' too much for me. Just to clarify, the avatar shows the precession of an elliptical orbit (that is, the long axis of the elliptical trajectory slowly rotates with each successive revolution). In Newton's theory of gravity, a body moving in a gravitational field travels in an elliptical orbit, such as the Moon around the Earth or the Earth around the Sun. The orbit is "closed", i.e., it traces the same trajectory every time. In Einstein's theory, there is an extra term in the potential energy which causes the orbit to precess. Within our solar system it is virtually impossible to observe this, because the Sun's gravity is relatively weak (and also the planetary orbits are fairly circular, i.e., the orbital "eccentricity" is small). However, Einstein predicted that the orbit of Mercury would precess at a rate of 43 seconds of arc per century,* which is exactly what astronomers measured. This was one of the first and most stunning confirmations of the theory. (*Equivalent to 0.012 degrees per century. It's amazing that astronomers could measure this so exactly in 1915!) An asteroid orbiting a neutron star or a black hole could exhibit a much greater rate of precession, such as shown in the avatar.
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 16, 2021 13:03:03 GMT
chang, I thought @haven was a. Joking b. Referring to paulr888, But now I’m paranoid the reference might have been directed toward me. This is an ink blot test, right?
|
|
|
Post by racqueteer on Jun 16, 2021 13:04:13 GMT
Just to clarify, the avatar shows the precession of an elliptical orbit... You mean it's NOT supposed to be a hotdog being attacked by gnats?!
|
|
|
Post by chang on Jun 16, 2021 13:07:56 GMT
chang, I thought @haven was a. Joking b. Referring to paulr888, But now I’m paranoid the reference might have been directed toward me. This is an ink blot test, right? This thread definitely isn't going in the direction I expected.
|
|
|
Post by paulr888 on Jun 16, 2021 13:26:55 GMT
No worries Chang. The derogatory comment was clearly addressed at my avatar that I did not seek out but was only non generic I saw on my screen when I signed up. I appreciate your invite to join this site but alas it has the same issue I encountered with one individual with his loyal legion of supporters that is too annoying to me so why should I bother. I wish you the best of luck with your investments. Adios, ciao ciao, over and out.
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 16, 2021 14:01:07 GMT
No worries Chang. The derogatory comment was clearly addressed at my avatar that I did not seek out but was only non generic I saw on my screen when I signed up. I appreciate your invite to join this site but alas it has the same issue I encountered with one individual with his loyal legion of supporters that is too annoying to me so why should I bother. I wish you the best of luck with your investments. Adios, ciao ciao, over and out. paulr888, I am really sorry to see you leave. I welcome your contributions. I really thought the whole event was a joke, perhaps due to my somewhat warped sense of humor. Either way I really hope you will reconsider. Stay well.
|
|
|
Post by Norbert on Jun 16, 2021 14:05:14 GMT
I must be missing something! The last several posts make no sense to me. Isn't it Chang's avatar that was being made fun of? Why is Paul annoyed?
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jun 16, 2021 14:19:36 GMT
Chang thought that reference was his Avatar but was likely to Paul's. On a close look, that is just a bar-graph with an ascending arrow. But on a far look may be steps leading to a lighthouse or tower.
Indication of slow posting days here and elsewhere.
|
|