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Post by Norbert on Jun 16, 2021 14:46:43 GMT
yogibearbull"Indication of slow posting days here and elsewhere." It must be the Summer doldrums, which might be a good subject for a new thread.
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Post by fishingrod on Jun 16, 2021 14:53:49 GMT
paulr888 , @haven was referring to chang 's avatar, the elliptical orbit thingy. I don't believe they were referring to your avatar at all. Just a misunderstanding, truly.
rhythmmethod , Now that avatar is another thing all together. If you squint your eyes while looking at it, it clearly looks like you know what. Fishingrod
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Post by Chahta on Jun 16, 2021 15:12:36 GMT
All I have to say about the avatar thing; you all have quite the imagination or maybe I don't look down enough.
"Chang thought that reference was his Avatar but was likely to Paul's." Somehow I thought it was RM's after I reread all this.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 16, 2021 18:59:27 GMT
I'm not sure if precious metals has anything to do with Avatars but the initial sell-off after the fed news today, appears to me to be a head-fake. I remain overweight in silver based etf's. If this post is off topic, feel free to move it to wherever.
OOPS! The close was nasty and the head-fake call might have been premature.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 17, 2021 3:05:56 GMT
I'm not sure if precious metals has anything to do with Avatars but the initial sell-off after the fed news today, appears to me to be a head-fake. I remain overweight in silver based etf's. If this post is off topic, feel free to move it to wherever.
OOPS! The close was nasty and the head-fake call might have been premature.
This is a worthwhile discussion to help me understand the way TA works in a functional way. Please understand I'm not trying to play "gotcha". If you liked silver before at the price a few days ago, are you a buyer here? Why or why not, if I may ask? It may well be that you think you have enough and it hasn't dropped enough to warrant another purchase. Or, if you're a momentum buyer maybe it needs to go up before you feel confident. My experiment is very small, but I could be interested in increasing it to a small degree, if only for a learning experience. What's your call, Unc? |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 17, 2021 6:13:06 GMT
Wow, I have owned silver for 45 years. I bought 5-1 OZ. coins for $5 each back them. You telling me they are worth 5 times as much now? I cut a fat hog.  That's peanuts for a return. I acquired a lot of silver coins (mostly junk silver), and some gold coins, during the early seventies, at prices of $1.39 to $3.00/oz, taking possession. Far more than ten times as much now. However, if this seems like a lot of gain...NO. A good bond fund, or Certificates of Deposit at that time, money reinvested, would have done same or better. Gold is not a growth investment...nor a current return (dividend-paying) investment. It is a storage of value, relative to the paper currency your are living with. And it is an excellent asset if government wealth confiscation gets underway. R48 |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 17, 2021 11:29:53 GMT
I'm not sure if precious metals has anything to do with Avatars but the initial sell-off after the fed news today, appears to me to be a head-fake. I remain overweight in silver based etf's. If this post is off topic, feel free to move it to wherever.
OOPS! The close was nasty and the head-fake call might have been premature.
This is a worthwhile discussion to help me understand the way TA works in a functional way. Please understand I'm not trying to play "gotcha". If you liked silver before at the price a few days ago, are you a buyer here? Why or why not, if I may ask? It may well be that you think you have enough and it hasn't dropped enough to warrant another purchase. Or, if you're a momentum buyer maybe it needs to go up before you feel confident. My experiment is very small, but I could be interested in increasing it to a small degree, if only for a learning experience. What's your call, Unc? My long term call remains bullish. For the short term, the markets reaction to the feds announcements yesterday indicates that precious metals will continue to consolidate or possibly correct. My intention at this time is to hold my positions until there is more data available. Yesterdays price and volume data was a knee-jerk reaction to the fed. I want to see the patterns that develop from some thoughtful trading before I change anything. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 17, 2021 14:23:08 GMT
I feel like a werewolf and have been shot by a silver bullet. 🤕
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 17, 2021 17:15:20 GMT
The USD is gaining strength against a basket of currencies and is a head wind for precious metals and other commodities. I closed out my margin position for a small loss this morning. The gap down which was created this morning for most things related to precious metals will be filled, but I have no way of knowing when.
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Post by anitya on Jun 17, 2021 17:39:49 GMT
Across the curve treasury rates are unchanged to down, with the 10 yr down 8 basis points and the 30 yr down 13 basis points. Why is the dollar up?
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 17, 2021 19:01:23 GMT
Across the curve treasury rates are unchanged to down, with the 10 yr down 8 basis points and the 30 yr down 13 basis points. Why is the dollar up?
Hopefully someone else has an answer.
The Yen is up against the USD
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Post by anitya on Jun 17, 2021 19:30:59 GMT
Across the curve treasury rates are unchanged to down, with the 10 yr down 8 basis points and the 30 yr down 13 basis points. Why is the dollar up?
Hopefully someone else has an answer.
The Yen is up against the USD
I am interpreting your reply to mean that this is an indication of slowing down of world (including US) economy that others are not seeing. Did I get that right? |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 17, 2021 19:42:34 GMT
Hopefully someone else has an answer.
The Yen is up against the USD
I am interpreting your reply to mean that this is an indication of slowing down of world (including US) economy that others are not seeing. Did I get that right? That is a distinct possibility. Commodity based economies such as Canada & Australia may have economies & currencies that are strengthening also. I need more data before I can make a definative statement. Input from others would be useful.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 17, 2021 19:56:57 GMT
In 2021, the SP500 did well, EWC(Canada) did better. EEM is trailing far behind. SLV,GLD are down for the year( link) Shorter term: since the beginning of June SLV,GLD,EEM are down 3-4% while SP500 has done better. SLV,GLD prices continue to dive today. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 17, 2021 19:58:31 GMT
I am interpreting your reply to mean that this is an indication of slowing down of world (including US) economy that others are not seeing. Did I get that right? That is a distinct possibility. Commodity based economies such as Canada & Australia may have economies & currencies that are strengthening also. I need more data before I can make a definative statement. Input from others would be useful.
The equity sectors that are doing well today are the stay at home economy sectors. GLD and Gold miners are down too. I am treating today and yesterday's market action as the market trying to figure out way forward based on yesterday's Fed's action / inaction. I am not doing any changes today. In fact, I have not done any changes for a long time, except sell some energy equities into strength. China doing well today - may be I should have sold some. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 17, 2021 20:19:45 GMT
FWIW; Rueters has an analysis on the reaction of the USD to the Feds almost hawkish stance. Apparently the USD is gaining strength because of a short squeeze of sorts in the forex markets. If Reuters has it right we should see a buying opportunity soon. Maybe next week.
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Post by anitya on Jun 18, 2021 0:39:02 GMT
In the realm of incoherent market moves today, contrary to treasuries, Muni prices fell today.
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Post by Chahta on Jun 18, 2021 1:03:06 GMT
In the realm of incoherent market moves today, contrary to treasuries, Muni prices fell today. I did not understand why munis got hit. Especially due to bond yields falling. Oh well that is investing. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 18, 2021 1:16:08 GMT
On my watchlist, most muni ETFs and CEFs were UP but most muni OEFs were DOWN. Call it a mixed day.
Munis trade with spreads, so consider the combined Treasury rate plus spread.
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Post by anitya on Jun 18, 2021 1:42:38 GMT
On my watchlist, most muni ETFs and CEFs were UP but most muni OEFs were DOWN. Call it a mixed day. Munis trade with spreads, so consider the combined Treasury rate plus spread. CEF NAVs, barring some in Blackrock, were down across the board I can see. I would imagine the same is true for ETF NAVs. Non MUNI investment grade bond funds performed in line with Treasuries. So, as we would expect, allocation funds that pair value stocks and investment grade bonds got the mix right. VLAIX with its growth stocks and high investment grade bonds had one of the rare moments in the past nine months. Not sure how many allocation funds are set up this way. VLAIX gained 0.7+% while FMSDX lost 0.8+%. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 18, 2021 3:31:29 GMT
Muni rates don't move with treasuries, the 10 year Muni was up several days (14-17 of June) while the 10 Year treasury was up on Wed but down on Thur (green chart). Attachments:
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 18, 2021 12:13:08 GMT
Overnight trading patterns indicate that silver and gold have found a bottom to their 2 day correction and the USD has stabelised for now. Today should be a day for sorting out the irrationality of the past 2 days.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 18, 2021 14:04:13 GMT
Overnight trading patterns indicate that silver and gold have found a bottom to their 2 day correction and the USD has stabelised for now. Today should be a day for sorting out the irrationality of the past 2 days. Here is where I get lost with TA. Trying to calculate "rationality" in the market is like trying to apply traditional behavioral science to a 10 year old child fed nothing but sugar cookies and coke (I don't mean the drink). There is no rationality, IMO. |
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Post by Chahta on Jun 18, 2021 14:43:35 GMT
Muni rates don't move with treasuries, the 10 year Muni was up several days (14-17 of June) while the 10 Year treasury was up on Wed but down on Thur (green chart). Did not know that. They seem to move with treasuries most of the time. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 18, 2021 15:58:48 GMT
Overnight trading patterns indicate that silver and gold have found a bottom to their 2 day correction and the USD has stabelised for now. Today should be a day for sorting out the irrationality of the past 2 days. Here is where I get lost with TA. Trying to calculate "rationality" in the market is like trying to apply traditional behavioral science to a 10 year old child fed nothing but sugar cookies and coke (I don't mean the drink). There is no rationality, IMO. , IMO, you may feel that way but your trades do not appear to take that position. I do (can) not think I use T/A but I do not think it is entirely useless. But in our own unsophisticated way and unconsciously we all use T/A to some extent, including in our daily life, not just in investing. If you allow me to say, there is no Ego without T/A. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 18, 2021 16:22:54 GMT
Here is where I get lost with TA. Trying to calculate "rationality" in the market is like trying to apply traditional behavioral science to a 10 year old child fed nothing but sugar cookies and coke (I don't mean the drink). There is no rationality, IMO. , IMO, you may feel that way but your trades do not appear to take that position. I do (can) not think I use T/A but I do not think it is entirely useless. But in our own unsophisticated way and unconsciously we all use T/A to some extent, including in our daily life, not just in investing. If you allow me to say, there is no Ego without T/A. Could be. When the Dow drops 300+ I’m a buyer of something, even if a small amount. An interesting thread might be the role of intuition in market timing. Would be hard to define, however. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 18, 2021 16:52:55 GMT
Overnight trading patterns indicate that silver and gold have found a bottom to their 2 day correction and the USD has stabelised for now. Today should be a day for sorting out the irrationality of the past 2 days. Here is where I get lost with TA. Trying to calculate "rationality" in the market is like trying to apply traditional behavioral science to a 10 year old child fed nothing but sugar cookies and coke (I don't mean the drink). There is no rationality, IMO. That was probably a poor choice of words on my part. Another way to say it might be now that the excitement of a fed non-statement has worn off the market will likely pursue a sustainable, rational trend or pattern. We just have to read that pattern or trend correctly.
T/A can be applied to anything where there is data that can be valued uniformly. I attribute my ability to read a chart to my preference of comic books over Shakespere as a child. I liked the pictures more than the text.
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Post by anitya on Jun 18, 2021 17:04:09 GMT
rhythmmethod , IMO, you may feel that way but your trades do not appear to take that position. I do (can) not think I use T/A but I do not think it is entirely useless. But in our own unsophisticated way and unconsciously we all use T/A to some extent, including in our daily life, not just in investing. If you allow me to say, there is no Ego without T/A. Could be. When the Dow drops 300+ I’m a buyer of something, even if a small amount. An interesting thread might be the role of intuition in market timing. Would be hard to define, however. There is a very good YouTube video on using intuition by Eckhart Tolle. If you can not find it, let me know, and I can dig it up for you. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 18, 2021 18:13:08 GMT
Hopefully someone else has an answer.
The Yen is up against the USD
I am interpreting your reply to mean that this is an indication of slowing down of world (including US) economy that others are not seeing. Did I get that right? A correction for the benefit of others (not to UH) - I thought my choice of words above was incomplete and it does not convey what I wanted. Please read “slowing down” as “decrease in the acceleration” which is what I wanted to say. I know it is not widely discussed in the press but I think that is what is going on. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 18, 2021 19:52:44 GMT
The market has spoken and we now know what the markets reaction will be to any taper talk or actual winding down of the current fed stimulus. In the Forex market the USD will increase in value. Most commodities, including or especially precious metals will decrease in value if they are held in USD accounts. Most multi-national common stocks will drop. Apparently treasuries will increase in value, but we might need some discussion on that point. I am now a bear cub on precious metals and will spend the weekend developing a different direction to go in with my discretionary money.
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