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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 18, 2021 21:14:00 GMT
I took a first-bucket position in silver via SLV early this year. Shortly thereafter the WSB/reddit guys announced they were buying silver. Even buying "physical possession" silver. SLV shot up from around $24/sh to $28+/share. Then it immediately dropped back down. I was surprised the almost 100% re-tracement from where the WSB folks started to buy. Happened with the etf MJ as well. I have not yet bought a second bucket of SLV.R48 My bold added above. Had also bought a bucket earlier of GDX Gold Miners...but have not added to it as well. Whew! At least one good call this year. I'm still trying to assess the degree of impact bitcoin and crypto will have on gold being a long term stable value asset of choice, and for how long will this effect will last. YOLO young investors simply not buying gold at all. Cannot dismiss this factor. R48
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Post by richardsok on Jun 18, 2021 23:26:23 GMT
"YOLO young investors simply not buying gold at all. Cannot dismiss this factor."
Good point, R48, if missing buyers among the hip-hop set are enough to move the gold needle.
Have to admit PMs aren't a hot, buzzy buy among young grads.
Still, I'd like to nose about to see overall global trends in PM buying, puh-tically in, say, India & China.
It's possible the comparative wealth of US kiddie speculators are little more than a rounding error compared to Asian big boys -- but I'm far from ready to make that claim.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 19, 2021 0:08:35 GMT
r
I think you are correct. That is, India and Asia people accumulate mucho physical gold almost as family traditions.
But how many are going crypto also?
Further, when I bought a bucket of gold miners and silver at start of year, I considered all the normal "tells" were in place for a rally upward...and an uptrend, including TA. Turns out we also got the supporting forward going "tells" such as a declining stock market in high tech; bitcoin FALLING from $64000 to low thirties...inflation scares...even uncleharley buying. However, gold did not really follow suit and rally.
In these cases I take long pauses and assess whether or not my thesis is correct...like is gold still a contrarian stalwart, or not. I have a great link on a debate of gold vs bitcoin by two guru's I will post here soon for anyone interested.
R48
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Post by richardsok on Jun 19, 2021 1:18:38 GMT
R-
I did a little bit of googling and came up with a couple of simplistic notes.
For 2019 global gold production was 3500 metric tons (Wikipedia) and demand was 4300 m tons (Reuters.)
2020 pandemic hammered production & demand. Demand fell 28% y-o-y.
Demand is recovering in 2021, but more slowly than might be expected inasmuch Covid is still a major issue in both India & China. Q1 2021 global demand was 816 m tons.
Estimate production to recover 2.5%/year 2020 thru 2024. 2021 Jewelry demand is already up 52% y-o-y.
But many retail shops throughout India are offering customers an unheard-of $20-to-$50 discount to spot.
In terms of global production we may have already seen peak gold. (But I read contradictory claims.) New commercially viable sources of the metal are ever more costly to find.
It is indeed true that Bitcoin poses a competitive alternative to gold investments. Personally, I neither understand nor trust Bitcoin as a long term store of wealth -- and I suspect there are a lot of investors like me.
FWIW.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 19, 2021 1:24:16 GMT
paulr888 , @haven was referring to chang 's avatar, the elliptical orbit thingy. I don't believe they were referring to your avatar at all. Just a misunderstanding, truly.
rhythmmethod , Now that avatar is another thing all together. If you squint your eyes while looking at it, it clearly looks like you know what. Fishingrod For anyone who thinks that avatar looks like a you-know-what , well, I don't know where to start. Sheesh. More like my 1967 footpath back to freshman dorm from a frat party.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 19, 2021 1:36:39 GMT
There are some local factors affecting the gold market in India. There are various duties and taxes on gold imports. Then a new rule on mandatory hallmarking/certification of gold jewelry went into affect in June after several delays/postponements. Basically, there is lot of fraud in gold jewelry business, and hallmarking is supposed to fix that. But that is an added cost/price and has related headaches. This week, gold just crashed. It didn't matter which form one held, bullion or gold-miners. Time to assess the damage. LINK
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 19, 2021 4:03:13 GMT
rhythmmethod , IMO, you may feel that way but your trades do not appear to take that position. I do (can) not think I use T/A but I do not think it is entirely useless. But in our own unsophisticated way and unconsciously we all use T/A to some extent, including in our daily life, not just in investing. If you allow me to say, there is no Ego without T/A. Could be. When the Dow drops 300+ I’m a buyer of something, even if a small amount. An interesting thread might be the role of intuition in market timing. Would be hard to define, however. Several observations: - T/A is an additional tool, it depends on how you use it. I have used it successfully - The setup is simple. I use it for short-term of hours and days, mostly on wide indexes such as SP500. - I have noticed that T/A works better with SP500 because many follow it and many algos use it. The SP500 direction and volatility are easier than others. - I use T/A for trading up to several times annually. I want to see a decline of at least 8% and a rebound. My goal is to catch it and make 1-3% in a short time. I never ever buy when prices go down, no matter how deep it goes. There is a saying "don't try to catch falling knives". I must see a rebound before I buy. Of course, you got to learn what does it all means and how you work with that. It's also an art/intuition that you have to practice over the years. I don't believe in using T/A constantly and especially not with unpredictable category such as precious metals that depends on several factors. The SP500 is a well define index that mostly goes up, even if you got the trade wrong, you can stay and eventually make money. Bigger picture: - T/A is a small part of my system - I use momentum + volatility to finds best risk/reward funds. The trades are much longer from weeks to years. - Just because I trade, it doesn't mean I'm out in cash. Actually, I hardly ever in cash. This means I sell and buy on the same day. My portfolio works/invested at all time. Logically and emotionally, it's a lot easier for me. I don't have a dilemma when to start buying, I'm in. - The only time I'm in cash is when risk is very high. That happened 2% in the last 10-11 years. The purpose is to protect my portfolio of a big loss. Before that, I was in all the time.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 19, 2021 14:07:26 GMT
Thanks FD1000 , I should make clear my thoughts regarding T/A are only in its use to me, not others. If folks can use to it make long term decisions or day trade, more power to them. Even though it may seem like I trade a lot, it's all around the edges. 60+% of my port is VWIAX, PIMIX, VGWAX, FMSDX, VTMFX, PTIAX and a couple muni funds. It sometimes seems to me that T/A traders already have a POV and use their interpretation of T/A to support it. Rather like the ink blot tests on the avatars earlier on this thread. But what do I know? Happy investing and I'm glad to hear that you are on the other end of your recent procedure. Stay well...RM
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 19, 2021 15:33:14 GMT
Going forward, my intention is to invest the proceeds from my recent sale of slvo into more Utilities. That position will probably be UTF because of their international diversification. I have to check with Fido on monday, but I believe I can go on margin with a 4% interest rate. UTF is currently paying 6.8% giving me an effective protection from inflation. The price of UTF is currently approaching par with the nav. It is my belief that the dominate controlling factor in the direction of the markets is Central Bank stimulus with most or many central banks following the U S Federal reserve. To me this means that QE forever will continue to support investment market prices and any indication of winding QE down will result in most market prices declining. I am gambling that dividend paying, consistent growth companies will outperform. JMHO
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 29, 2021 18:54:08 GMT
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Post by win1177 on Jun 29, 2021 19:32:41 GMT
Figures, after I invested in it! I have 1500 shares of GDXJ (VanEck Vectors junior gold miners). Part of my attempt to diversify some of my equity risk with a small slice of gold miners. Oh well, I’ll hang on to it, it’s just a small piece of my portfolio. Win
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 29, 2021 20:58:30 GMT
Figures, after I invested in it! I have 1500 shares of GDXJ (VanEck Vectors junior gold miners). Part of my attempt to diversify some of my equity risk with a small slice of gold miners. Oh well, I’ll hang on to it, it’s just a small piece of my portfolio. Win Maybe so, maybe no. This chart from the Fed reserve of Atlanta indicates we are entering a period of inflation that is similar to what we had in the '70's. Wether it is transitory or not is a matter of belief, not fact. cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gdmtni-Sticky%20Price.jpg
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 30, 2021 0:27:30 GMT
Gold was doing fine until June, stalled until mid-June, and then collapsed/crashed. It has surprised many.
With so much damage, keep in mind that after March 2020 (when almost everything collapsed and gold touched 1,451), gold has held in $1,671-1,673 range 3 times, and that may provide bottoming areas as follows: GLD 157.xx, SGOL 16.xx, GDX 30.xx, GDXJ 43.xx.
My current interest is only in GDXJ and I may put in a limit-order or sell puts (I do have some GDX but am not adding to it).
I am not buying into cryptos-being-new-gold story. However, I am watching COIN and may pick some around 200.
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Post by anitya on Jun 30, 2021 1:53:08 GMT
COIN seemed to have put in a bottom at $208. Recent collapse in Bitcoin took COIN only to $210.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 30, 2021 12:16:22 GMT
My daily chart of the USD as measured against a basket of currencies indicates that it has been form a cup with handle pattern. If the value of the USD breaks thru the neckline of the pattern [the dashed red line] the projected rise would be to abt 95 on the chart. If the neckline is not broken, this might be a buying opportunity for precious metals and many other commodities. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p81036478851&a=412560997&listNum=86
Edit#2; I find no clue in the futures market this A M. Gold is down, Silver is up. And the world still turns.
Edit #3; The USD is showing some strength at the open of U S markets. I see no reason to expect it to decline. Perhaps a stronger dollar will make our recent inflation transitory.
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Post by anitya on Jun 30, 2021 17:44:12 GMT
Among other things, the rising USD certainly helped with dampening / moderating inflation. I think we have seen peak inflation for this cycle.
Edit: I just noticed that USD is ~ 1% lower at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1 but it is more than 10% lower than the high it had put in Q1 of 2020.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 30, 2021 21:04:17 GMT
Among other things, the rising USD certainly helped with dampening / moderating inflation. I think we have seen peak inflation for this cycle. Edit: I just noticed that USD is ~ 1% lower at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1 but it is more than 10% lower than the high it had put in Q1 of 2020. Are you saying, there is a high correlation between the Dollar and inflation in the short term? If that's true, how can you explain Dollar sharply down in Q2-Q3 of 2020 and inflation not up? How can you predict peak inflation now and not in another 1-2 months? And why the Dollar can't go lower from here? The chart I attached shows the Dollar going up twice and then down. The next leg? I have no idea. BTW, as a trader I have never done short term changes to my portfolio based on inflation, the Dollar, gold or other predictions. Attachments:
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Post by anitya on Jul 1, 2021 18:57:22 GMT
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Post by anitya on Jul 2, 2021 1:02:10 GMT
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Post by anitya on Jul 2, 2021 1:10:21 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Jul 2, 2021 11:32:38 GMT
Hope they stay out of Argentina bonds for EM exposure.
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Post by Capital on Jul 2, 2021 12:50:52 GMT
Hope they stay out of Argentina bonds for EM exposure. Everyone should stay out of Argentina sovereign debt bonds. I have always thought that Argentina should publish an expected default date for their bonds.
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 2, 2021 15:00:00 GMT
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Post by anitya on Jul 2, 2021 18:20:21 GMT
Thanks for sharing. I do not believe any of us are long term holders of gold. The author does admit his predictions are not relevant to short term. Gold and its derivatives have done well this week (or at least since Tuesday when somebody sold me call options). For the benefit of those that do not want to read the link, it is worth noting the following from the article: "[Gold price trend] consists of a strong 3-year up phase, followed by a more complex 5-year downward phase. We are currently in the early portion of that 5-year downward phase right now. That means gold prices should ideally keep working their way lower toward an important bottom due in late 2024 to early 2025. . . No one should expect that either trend, in gold or the dollar, should be in a straight line. History shows that their trends do not work that way. But it is still worth knowing what the underlying trend is supposed to be, so that one can know whether to trade with that trend or against it."
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 2, 2021 19:26:11 GMT
Not sure if this has ben posted on these forums, or not: "It's the showdown that everyone has been waiting for. Gold financier Frank Giustra versus MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor in the ultimate gold vs bitcoin battle. Our Daniela Cambone moderates. #bitcoin #gold #bitcoinvsgold Find the best opportunities in cryptocurrencies!" Watch here (caution...lengthy): www.youtube.com/watch?v=coHC_9ApBdgR48
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 2, 2021 20:25:40 GMT
I am a long term holder of gold via royalty and stream company, Franco Nevada (FNV). I've held it for almost 10 years. It's mostly gold business but has silver, platinum and palladium business and a growing copper mine business. It also has an energy business (oil, gas and LNG). This company has been good to me.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 6, 2021 20:43:36 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 6, 2021 22:54:14 GMT
If you use a simple M A it is very close. If you use an exponential M A it is less close.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 6, 2021 23:02:02 GMT
MAs are so bunched up now that little moves up/down can send whipsaw signals. BTW, MarketWatch is also reporting a golden-cross, and FX Empire is declaring an (inverse) head-and-shoulder bottom. finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF?p=GC%3DF
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 7, 2021 3:54:52 GMT
I used to like Pimco funds until several years ago. The best example is their leading fund PIMIX at YTD=1.8%. Pretty low if you ask me. PIMIX used to be a star but its ranking is not at the top anymore. 2019 ranks at 78, 2020-21 both ranks at 47-48. While in the past I always used to own one Pimco fund, I don't own any since early 2018.
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