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Post by chang on May 29, 2021 8:50:10 GMT
www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/why-gold-emerging-markets-and-canada-are-the-places-to-invest-for-2021~2103169
Why gold, emerging markets and Canada are the places to invest for 2021
Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss their investing strategy going into the new year.
Coincidentally, these were my biggest purchases in 4Q2020. (Note: I cannot find a date anywhere around this video. Some clues in the video lead me to think it was made around the end of 2020 or start of 2021.)
Petursson is positive on S&P500 earnings outlook; negative on the US Dollar and bonds. He's also looking for the economic recovery to feed inflation.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 29, 2021 22:00:51 GMT
Thanks for video.
Since some charts are through Dec 2020, the video seems to have been made about Feb 2021.
R48
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Post by uncleharley on May 30, 2021 12:07:26 GMT
Petursson is positive on S&P500 earnings outlook; negative on the US Dollar and bonds. He's also looking for the economic recovery to feed inflation. Fwiw; I have to agree with that projection.
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Post by rhythmmethod on May 30, 2021 14:52:29 GMT
Interesting and congrats chang. It appears you may have been on the front end if his hypothesis proves correct. My concern is what is the best course of action currently? No secret I believe that once articles pop up (especially months old) that the next move is likely counter the news line. All this makes me consider proven fund managers with a very wide range of options. Good food for thought here.
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Post by uncleharley on May 30, 2021 16:49:41 GMT
In anticipation of rising inflation and a weaker USD, I am overweight in Silver related ETF's. Precious metals may not be the best course for everyone, but that is my chosen course of action.
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Post by anitya on May 30, 2021 18:26:41 GMT
I have been making inflation bets thru my investments over the past 15+ years, starting with IBonds. From a market timing POV, I know I tend to be early but 15 yrs is way too long and all my inflation bets, including those I made in 2021, so far have been busts on a relative basis. (I did not lose money on a nominal basis but plenty of opportunity cost, which matters more than losses on a nominal basis.)
So, I would say do not invest but only trade based on inflation expectations.
Edit: The greeting and good bye statements from the host indicate the video was produced in later half of Dec 2020.
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Post by chang on May 30, 2021 22:51:40 GMT
In anticipation of rising inflation and a weaker USD, I am overweight in Silver related ETF's. Precious metals may not be the best course for everyone, but that is my chosen course of action. uh, why do you prefer silver to gold? Industrial demand? If so, doesn't that mean silver is more correlated with industrial stocks, and therefore a poorer diversifier as a holding alongside stocks?
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Post by chang on May 31, 2021 2:27:09 GMT
My concern is what is the best course of action currently? No secret I believe that once articles pop up (especially months old) that the next move is likely counter the news line. All this makes me consider proven fund managers with a very wide range of options. Good food for thought here. rhythmmethod That is always my concern as well. As a general rule, I tend to feel that I always notice things last (maybe because I am so resistant to believing in momentum), so when something gets my attention it's usually because it has already risen 60%. However, in this case, I think the potential rise in the asset classes in question is in its infancy. Gold and Canada is more or less correlated with a declining US Dollar, and we are definitely not late to that party, if there's going to be one. Same can be said of EM. If the theses make sense to someone, I don't see why a careful DCA or "PyrUp" would not be possible. My own positive returns are still very modest, and I will continue to add to these assets. I think moreover that these asset classes are worthy of further probing. For example gold: own the pure metal, or combine with miners; or silver; or other commodities? (I am trying to figure out the gold-vs-silver dynamics.) Canada: is the potential exclusively in the USD/CAD exchange rate movement? Or do Canada's banks, miners and energy companies [all dividend payers] have inherent potential in the current environment? EM: Is Grantham right [as unlikely as it seems]? Is EM Value really worth pursuing, despite the "growth" mentality that is so strongly entrenched in EM investing cultures? Are the Acadian, TRP(PRIJX), State St.(SSEMX) and D&C EM Value funds (are there any others?) worth another look? Or just pick a smart money manager and let him or her make all the decisions? I suspect there are various good (and not-so-good) theses that will play out here over next 18-24 months.
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Post by uncleharley on May 31, 2021 12:32:47 GMT
The current silver/gold price ratio favors silver and is the deciding factor of which to buy now. Obviously that can change but my expectation is that the change, if and when it occurs, will be a result of silver going up rather than gold going down. Increased industrial demand would be a long term factor if I was planning to get into the mining business. My current plan is to participate in an intermediate term trade. Something that may last a couple of yrs.
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Post by chang on May 31, 2021 13:53:05 GMT
Uh, I am not sure I follow the math. A year ago SIVR and SGOL were both at $16. Today SIVR is at $29 while SGOL is at $19. Surely the S/G price ratio was much lower a year ago than now ... ?
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Post by yogibearbull on May 31, 2021 15:17:54 GMT
Last year silver crashed more than gold as it is both precious and industrial metal. Silver shows a favorable flag-pattern now. Some say that it may finally move to new all-time highs in this cycle (if not now, when?). FWIW, I have exposure to gold-miners only and some are involved in silver-mining too. Gold/Silver ratio is now close to normal. LINK
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Post by uncleharley on May 31, 2021 18:06:41 GMT
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Post by rhythmmethod on May 31, 2021 18:24:08 GMT
rhythmmethod That is always my concern as well. As a general rule, I tend to feel that I always notice things last (maybe because I am so resistant to believing in momentum), so when something gets my attention it's usually because it has already risen 60%. However, in this case, I think the potential rise in the asset classes in question is in its infancy. Gold and Canada is more or less correlated with a declining US Dollar, and we are definitely not late to that party, if there's going to be one. Same can be said of EM. If the theses make sense to someone, I don't see why a careful DCA or "PyrUp" would not be possible. My own positive returns are still very modest, and I will continue to add to these assets. I think moreover that these asset classes are worthy of further probing. For example gold: own the pure metal, or combine with miners; or silver; or other commodities? (I am trying to figure out the gold-vs-silver dynamics.) Canada: is the potential exclusively in the USD/CAD exchange rate movement? Or do Canada's banks, miners and energy companies [all dividend payers] have inherent potential in the current environment? EM: Is Grantham right [as unlikely as it seems]? Is EM Value really worth pursuing, despite the "growth" mentality that is so strongly entrenched in EM investing cultures? Are the Acadian, TRP(PRIJX), State St.(SSEMX) and D&C EM Value funds (are there any others?) worth another look? Or just pick a smart money manager and let him or her make all the decisions?I suspect there are various good (and not-so-good) theses that will play out here over next 18-24 months. I don't necessarily think that the best return course of action is highlighted above, but is inching closer to my risk/hassle-reward quotient. I've come to believe that "PryUp" is a viable course and have been employing it (along with BTD) in FMSDX. It holds some miners, RE, energy and non vanilla FI. It certainly is not a perfect hedge against inflation, but something. I'm exploring other MS funds from VG and TRP. I'm also considering a small position in a silver ETF, but my conviction is so low that I'd prefer to let full time investors make those decisions. As usual, I think you're one of the smartest in the room and will be following your decisions and BSW. - All my recents buys are readjusting allocation and not tactical.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 31, 2021 19:18:53 GMT
In anticipation of rising inflation and a weaker USD, I am overweight in Silver related ETF's. Precious metals may not be the best course for everyone, but that is my chosen course of action. uh, why do you prefer silver to gold? Industrial demand? If so, doesn't that mean silver is more correlated with industrial stocks, and therefore a poorer diversifier as a holding alongside stocks? Re silver, it isn't just a broad-swipe of "industrial demand", therefore a poor diversifier with stocks. Rather, silver may be entering a new phase...greater demand due to usage in all the new technology themes. Like, decades ago silver was predominate in photography...then a wholesale change, as photos now taken w/o silver. Use declined. However, a resurgence is that silver is now being used in many new tech applications, such as 5G, manufacture of sophisticated devices, reliable electrical connections, and so on. Silver is also mostly mined as a bi-product of gold mining. With gold mining becoming more and more difficult, less silver may be found/mined. R48
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Post by chang on Jun 1, 2021 7:17:50 GMT
Doesn't this chart support my observation? Silver/Gold price ratio is now the highest in a year. Silver might be preferable to gold, but — based only on price ratio — less so than when the ratio was lower. Maybe I misunderstood what you are extracting from this chart. Are you saying that the ratio itself is moving upward, and you're looking to capitalize on that trend? I inferred your comment as relating to valuation, when perhaps you were actually making a comment about momentum.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 1, 2021 12:52:23 GMT
What I am trying to say is that from an historical perspective the price of silver as it relates to gold is low and trending up. Fwiw, Overnight trading in silver bullion will open this morning above a 3 month old closing high. The trend continues up.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 7, 2021 22:42:03 GMT
Silver bullion has broken above the 20dma, which is above the 50 dma, which is above the 200 dma. The price has also moved up from horizontal support and appears to have begun the long awaited uptrend. Likewise for SLV, SILJ, SLVO and other associated silver investments. My target is the 49/50 dollar range for silver.
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Post by chang on Jun 7, 2021 23:16:51 GMT
Gold isn't doing too badly, either. That diplet last week provided a nice opportunity to add SGOL @ $18. Got to try to PU in a disciplined fashion. I guess you would suggest adding SIVR alongside? I'm not looking for a trade, but rather a long-haul hold.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 8, 2021 13:14:12 GMT
Because of the extended amount of time in the recent/current consolidation, I expect the next advance to be sharp. My target for silver bullion is 49/50 dollars in 2 to 4 months. That move should bring Silver to the lip of the handle on a cup that has been forming since the late '70's. Further projections can be made once the $50 level is history or has failed. Yes, add a bit of SIVR. I am on margin at this point.
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Post by paulr888 on Jun 8, 2021 16:16:15 GMT
I like gold as part of my 6% target PV for commodities. I invest in royalty and stream company, Franco Nevada (FNV). I owned this for several years and not buying now. The best buy time for me was when gold was about $1200 an ounce and FNV was about $60 a share.
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Post by richardsok on Jun 8, 2021 20:14:27 GMT
Silver bullion has broken above the 20dma, which is above the 50 dma, which is above the 200 dma. The price has also moved up from horizontal support and appears to have begun the long awaited uptrend. Likewise for SLV, SILJ, SLVO and other associated silver investments. My target is the 49/50 dollar range for silver. Are we looking at the same charts, harley? I see silver stalled at about 26 resistance -- about the third time it's been in this neighborhood but not able to breach it before. I'm up on my SLV but am not going to buy any calls at this point unless we see a break-out. The last time we were at or above current levels was nine years ago. I'm skeptical if technicals have much relevance over that time frame -- much less cup-and-handle, head-and-shoulders, descending triangle and all that --- none of which I believe in. Anyway, we're on the same team here. But I'll believe the breakout when I see it forming.
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 8, 2021 20:35:33 GMT
That is what makes a market. I would suggest that one should beware of the volatility on WWW [Wierd Wollie Wednesday] the day before the CPI is released. Options expirey next week may also trick a person. BTW Silver closed today at 27.73. $26 is now support.
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Post by chang on Jun 9, 2021 1:00:22 GMT
Because of the extended amount of time in the recent/current consolidation, I expect the next advance to be sharp. My target for silver bullion is 49/50 dollars in 2 to 4 months. That move should bring Silver to the lip of the handle on a cup that has been forming since the late '70's. Further projections can be made once the $50 level is history or has failed. Yes, add a bit of SIVR. I am on margin at this point. I put in a GTC order for SIVR at $26. We might not see that price again ... if it starts to run away I will re-evaluate my entry strategy. I'm OK with SGOL-only, if it doesn't work out. But it seems reasonable to mix them (financially, not metallurgically). On- and off-topic, I added to FICDX (Canada equity) today. I like the banks, miners, energy, and currency. Also added to EM (Fido FEMKX).
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 11, 2021 12:35:12 GMT
MACD is turning up on the silver ETF's indicating that the horse is out of the barn and the race has begun.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jun 11, 2021 16:05:52 GMT
MACD is turning up on the silver ETF's indicating that the horse is out of the barn and the race has begun. I put a saddle on...now I’m interested.
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Post by chang on Jun 12, 2021 21:44:00 GMT
I am also interested, and will watch next week's action, looking for some kind of invitation.
Didn't the WSB crowd have a go at silver a few months ago? I wonder why they picked it, and whether they might do it again…
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Post by yogibearbull on Jun 12, 2021 22:18:29 GMT
Silver didn't fit the typical MO for WSB/Reddit meme stocks. There are rumors floated for the next meme stock(s) but they don't pan out - last week was a good example. It seems that some big investors are trying to manipulate things in the options market and hoping that WSB/Reddit crowd latches on.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jun 12, 2021 23:01:33 GMT
I took a first-bucket position in silver via SLV early this year. Shortly thereafter the WSB/reddit guys announced they were buying silver. Even buying "physical possession" silver. SLV shot up from around $24/sh to $28+/share. Then it immediately dropped back down.
I was surprised the almost 100% re-tracement from where the WSB folks started to buy. Happened with the etf MJ as well. I have not yet bought a second bucket of SLV.
R48
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 13, 2021 17:09:04 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 14, 2021 4:02:46 GMT
www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/why-gold-emerging-markets-and-canada-are-the-places-to-invest-for-2021~2103169
Why gold, emerging markets and Canada are the places to invest for 2021
Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss their investing strategy going into the new year.
Coincidentally, these were my biggest purchases in 4Q2020. (Note: I cannot find a date anywhere around this video. Some clues in the video lead me to think it was made around the end of 2020 or start of 2021.)
Petursson is positive on S&P500 earnings outlook; negative on the US Dollar and bonds. He's also looking for the economic recovery to feed inflation. The above prediction is from 12/17/2020( link) and so far in 2021, only the Canada ETF(EWC) did better than the SP500. YTD...VFIAX(+13.8%) + SCHD(US value 21.3%) + EEM(7.3%) + GLD(-0.7%) + EWC(+23.3) ...( chart). I have to admit that I also thought this year EM would be a good choice, it started better than the SP500 but then it went down. In the last month EM is doing better than SP500 but QQQ is doing great too. BTW, I can always find managed US based funds that have done even better than the SP500.
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