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Post by anitya on Sept 11, 2024 0:17:51 GMT
archer , You do not show up in Quick Tag! How much downside are you expecting to think about selling an ETF like USMV? I am hoping no more than another 6% downdraft. We know it can be painful until elections. Good time to sell was before seasonal weakness starts in Sept. What prompted you not to sell sooner? P.s.: I did not add to my USMV position in the last 5 years. Unlikely I will ever. Since it is a recent purchase in my short term trading account, I would sell it if I spot what I think is a better opportunity, or will likely go to cash if it makes a decisive close below its 20 DMA. Currently I like it's chart compared to anything else on my watchlist, which is mostly sector ETFs. Thanks. I did not realize you are trading it. It is in my long term holding taxable account. I never thought about trading factor based equity ETFs but probably a good idea to trade them. |
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Post by Karen on Sept 13, 2024 16:07:38 GMT
That was a tough ending to a tough week. NDX seems to be leading the SPX in a downward spiral. NVDA seems to be leading the NDX. A quick look at NVDAs charts indicates it could find support at 90, if not there then 45, if not there then 14. The CEO is selling large tranches of stock, so I have a tough time being optimistic about the stock. Down volume continues to exceed up volume on NVDA as well as the major indexes, consequently I expect a rough week next week also. Let us not forget you were smack on target with your projections at the BOY on where the S&P would rise to this year. That is noteworthy and I trust all here applaud and thank you for those insights. But recent data seemed to turn you very bearish, expecting a rough week this week to the point that you stated on 09/09: "Sell stocks, buy bonds. Except for special situations." Currently, WTD: Dow +2.9% Nasdaq +6.0% S&P +4.2% RUT +4.0% The current WTD S&P gain offsets last week's -4.2% performance. How could the tea leaves have been SO misinterpreted, or are you sticking with your noted bearish sentiment? |
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Post by chang on Sept 13, 2024 16:20:31 GMT
I bought a chunk of CGUS at last Friday’s close, and am not unhappy with that move. I just don’t see why I should sell equity here. Sure, there is some volatility and wobbling, but BTD still seems to be working. More to the point, the election will bring certainty no matter who wins; so that’s a plus. November-January are usually good months. So I wouldn’t think about selling until next year.
My focus now is exiting my FI overweight in very short-term stuff (MM, T-bills, and RPHIX) and moving more of that into IT/MS, which seems to grind higher every day and rarely dips.
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Post by anitya on Sept 13, 2024 18:14:09 GMT
Next 6 wks or so is seasonally the worse time for equities. Today’s rally is mostly a junk rally. E.g., QQQJ. I think we have had about three days of small cap rally. I would not add to broad equity market here but if you have individual stocks or themes you are after, you know what you are doing.
p.s.: ever since Apple announced A.I., their auto correction has become more aggressive. Rally is corrected as Larry in this post. Does it even make sense? Do not upgrade your iPhone for AI.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 13, 2024 19:17:39 GMT
That was a tough ending to a tough week. NDX seems to be leading the SPX in a downward spiral. NVDA seems to be leading the NDX. A quick look at NVDAs charts indicates it could find support at 90, if not there then 45, if not there then 14. The CEO is selling large tranches of stock, so I have a tough time being optimistic about the stock. Down volume continues to exceed up volume on NVDA as well as the major indexes, consequently I expect a rough week next week also. Let us not forget you were smack on target with your projections at the BOY on where the S&P would rise to this year. That is noteworthy and I trust all here applaud and thank you for those insights. But recent data seemed to turn you very bearish, expecting a rough week this week to the point that you stated on 09/09: "Sell stocks, buy bonds. Except for special situations." Currently, WTD: Dow +2.9% Nasdaq +6.0% S&P +4.2% RUT +4.0% The current WTD S&P gain offsets last week's -4.2% performance. How could the tea leaves have been SO misinterpreted, or are you sticking with your noted bearish sentiment? Todays trading activity will show that this is the 4th or 5th time that the S&P 500 has eased past 5600. All of the previous moves have been on light trading volume and the subsequent declines have been on above average daily trading volume. Consequently, I believe the S&P has been forming a top and the next move will be down. Current seasonality factors also support a bearish tilt. That does not mean Everybody should sell Everything, it merely means that I am bearish and any trades I will make will reflect that feeling. Others have other goals, resources, and needs. |
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 14, 2024 1:21:34 GMT
Hi guys. As of Friday's market close (Friday the 13th) the S&P500 Index sits a mere 41 points from it's 52 week high. The barometer scores the Index as overvalued with a bullish sentimate reading of +2.
For me, I am most happy as my portfolio has performed well on both its income and equity sides and is pretty well balanced within its targeted asset allocation. However, this could change quickly as this is the traditional season of volality.
One fund that I added to this week was FKRCX as I continue to pyrmid up until it reaches build out.
And, so it goes.
Wishing all ... Good Investing.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 17, 2024 17:22:30 GMT
My count for this mornings S&P retreat from 5670 is a quadruple top. I do not have a lot of experience with quadruple tops, however my thought is that the chances of a worthwhile bullish rally for the S&P 500, at this time, are somewhere between fat and slim.
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 17, 2024 19:11:31 GMT
As I write the barometer scores the S&P500 Index as overbought with a reading of 68 with investor sentimate noted as mildy bullish with a reading of +2.
It would not surprise me if we don't see a good size dip take place tomorrow after Powell speaks following the FOMC meeting.
I am feeling kinda fuzzy about this market and feel good caution is warranted.
Old_Skeet
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Post by richardsok on Sept 17, 2024 19:31:49 GMT
My count for this mornings S&P retreat from 5670 is a quadruple top. I do not have a lot of experience with quadruple tops, however my thought is that the chances of a worthwhile bullish rally for the S&P 500, at this time, are somewhere between fat and slim. PTA, VTV, AOM and SPE have broken through to new tops. OEF still lags a bit. That's what I watch. |
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Post by anitya on Sept 17, 2024 19:32:52 GMT
Took gains on some single stocks that I had bought for falling rates. I did not even check T/A for selling while I did for buying. The trade was purely a rates decision.
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Post by retiredat48 on Sept 18, 2024 16:38:38 GMT
Hi guys. As of Friday's market close (Friday the 13th) the S&P500 Index sits a mere 41 points from it's 52 week high. The barometer scores the Index as overvalued with a bullish sentimate reading of +2. For me, I am most happy as my portfolio has performed well on both its income and equity sides and is pretty well balanced within its targeted asset allocation. However, this could change quickly as this is the traditional season of volality. One fund that I added to this week was FKRCX as I continue to pyramid up until it reaches build out. And, so it goes. Wishing all ... Good Investing. I, too, love PYRAMID UP investing, R48 |
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 19, 2024 0:47:33 GMT
Today's volatile trading showed me the same theme I have been looking at since this past July. That is, we are seeing the strongest trading volume on down days. That is not bullish for the major domestic stock indexes.
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Post by Karen on Sept 19, 2024 12:56:33 GMT
uncleharley , thank you for your detailed reply to my question. Meanwhile, despite the cautionary-to-bearish sentiments expressed here and elsewhere by some, the US markets futures are pointing towards a sizeable rally this AM, continuing their move UP since the 09/06 close. There is of course a long way to go in today's market activity, with today's volume and action around 5,670 yet to be seen. FWIW, I continue to be bullish given factors beyond charts, including those expressed in the T/A articles I've recently linked on this thread, most notably earnings and rate cuts. As well, AI has been in what Barron's described as a mini-bear market, which I have used as a buying opportunity. www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/sp-500-and-nasdaq-100-tech-stocks-rally-after-feds-first-rate-cut-in-four-years-1462326As they say about different sentiments, "It's what makes markets!"
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 19, 2024 13:48:16 GMT
uncleharley , thank you for your detailed reply to my question. Meanwhile, despite the cautionary-to-bearish sentiments expressed here and elsewhere by some, the US markets futures are pointing towards a sizeable rally this AM, continuing their move UP since the 09/06 close. There is of course a long way to go in today's market activity, with today's volume and action around 5,670 yet to be seen. FWIW, I continue to be bullish given factors beyond charts, including those expressed in the T/A articles I've recently linked on this thread, most notably earnings and rate cuts. As well, AI has been in what Barron's described as a mini-bear market, which I have used as a buying opportunity. www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/sp-500-and-nasdaq-100-tech-stocks-rally-after-feds-first-rate-cut-in-four-years-1462326As they say about different sentiments, "It's what makes markets!" Today might change my mind! The major indexes seem to be running a little hot today. |
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 19, 2024 20:25:42 GMT
O K! It's a bull. Next stop is 6100 SPX.
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Post by Karen on Sept 20, 2024 0:08:25 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 20, 2024 1:19:53 GMT
I was impressed by the above average trading volume on an up day for most of the domestic stock indexes.
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Post by archer on Sept 20, 2024 4:03:02 GMT
uncleharley, How do you factor in volume on gap days? Eg. today we had a up day, but most of the gains were in the gap outside of normal trading hours. So while we had good volume, that volume was on a small portion of the gains, and most of the gain I assume was on lower after hours volume. The A/D line did advance a little, but not a lot. Would high volume mean more on a day with no gap and I tall candle at the same closing price? Thanks!
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 20, 2024 4:08:45 GMT
"I trust it's coincidental, but BMO today raised its YE target to 6,100, the highest on Wall Street!"
It's predictable. When SPY goes down 5-6%, you will find negative articles. When SPY breaks the top, analysts must change their forecast.
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Post by Karen on Sept 20, 2024 12:22:23 GMT
It may be difficult to gauge follow through today as $5.1T of options expire on today's triple witching Friday.
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Post by Karen on Sept 20, 2024 12:30:44 GMT
"I trust it's coincidental, but BMO today raised its YE target to 6,100, the highest on Wall Street!" It's predictable. When SPY goes down 5-6%, you will find negative articles. When SPY breaks the top, analysts must change their forecast. Well, posters here I trust are very aware about certain things  being predictable. But, apparently every brokerage and T/A other than BMO and uncleharley have not been informed* about your purported mandatory change as they are the only ones who have just revised their targets. And I trust neither of them made their respective changes based simply on the SPX (not SPY) hitting a new high. * = FWIW, my beloved husband (RIP), who worked in the business for 30+ years, including about 10 years as a market analyst, was never informed of this either. EDIT: And, for a full and factual disclosure, a BMO spokesperson this AM stated that the raising of their YE S&P target was drafted in a press release TWO DAYS PRIOR to the Fed announcement and published BEFORE the market opened Thursday and thusly BEFORE the SPX hit its new high. |
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 20, 2024 13:45:54 GMT
Hi Karen. I am sorry to learn of the loss of your husband. Please accept my confidences. Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 20, 2024 15:27:01 GMT
uncleharley , How do you factor in volume on gap days? Eg. today we had a up day, but most of the gains were in the gap outside of normal trading hours. So while we had good volume, that volume was on a small portion of the gains, and most of the gain I assume was on lower after hours volume. The A/D line did advance a little, but not a lot. Would high volume mean more on a day with no gap and I tall candle at the same closing price? Thanks! I do not pay a lot of attention to intraday trading volume. Primarily because there is a daily cycle to trading that I find to be confusing. I have found that the trends of daily and weekly trading are much more informative and much more relevant to what I do. You will have to talk to a day trader or a minute trader for answers toyour question. |
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Post by Karen on Sept 20, 2024 19:34:17 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 21, 2024 0:53:50 GMT
Hi guys. As of Friday's market close Old_Skeet's barometer scores the S&P500 Index as overbought with a reading of 71. The sentiment reading came in at +5, bullish.
Earlier in the week I added another step buy to one of my smid cap funds, VVOAX.
Wishing all ... Good Investing.
Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 21, 2024 1:22:28 GMT
The weekly chart shows that the S&P 500 set a new high on strong volume. The daily chart spreads out the activity enough to show a cup w handle pattern and the breakout from that pattern. The pattern & breakout suggests a bullish run to 6100 is a reasonable expectation. The slope of the current trend suggests the S&P will reach 6100 in about 2 months. At that time, we will have more data on inflation/employment and where the Fed is going. Meanwhile I am bullish. Especially bullish on most commodities.
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 21, 2024 12:54:56 GMT
The YTD trend is still intact. SPY leads VTV,IWM,VXUS at 20+% in 2024.
For 1-3 months, IWM leads, followed by VTV and then SPY. OK to diversify with LC value + IWM. Its another proof that more categories are participating while the tech sector is taking a back seat.
PDI performed well for 1-3 months + YTD (22.5%)
Bond funds have done well in 2024. I have at least 10 funds on my list that made at least 8% YTD(with 4 over 10%) and several with lower SD. That means about 1% per month.
The VIX over 16 + MOVE(bond risk) over 91 = risk went down in the last several weeks.
What to do now?
Disregard all/most of the 24/7 media noise that discuss inflation, recession, soft landing, the dollar, the deficit, future predictions, valuation, it can't go up because only big tech is up and others.
I keep holding at 99+% in.
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Post by racqueteer on Sept 21, 2024 13:32:46 GMT
I keep holding at 99+% in. You keep repeating this, and I assume you mean that you're 99% invested in something (other than in cash), but that's not particularly informative. Not meaning to nitpick, but I'm probably 99% invested all the time also, and my allocation varies widely. I can't help but to feel that this little factoid is a bit meaningless? I suspect that many equate being "invested" with being invested in equities, and I know that isn't usually the case for you these days. |
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 21, 2024 13:54:08 GMT
I keep holding at 99+% in. You keep repeating this, and I assume you mean that you're 99% invested in something (other than in cash), but that's not particularly informative. Not meaning to nitpick, but I'm probably 99% invested all the time also, and my allocation varies widely. I can't help but to feel that this little factoid is a bit meaningless? I suspect that many equate being "invested" with being invested in equities, and I know that isn't usually the case for you these days. I'm invested in 99+% in 2-3 bond OEFs for several years now most times, except 1) Trading risky stuff (CEFs, stock funds) for hours-days and back to bonds. That happens maybe twice annually, none in 2023-4. 2) When I'm out to MM in very high risk markets. Last time it happened was the first week of Aug. My allocation and trades are stable for weeks, even months. Example: in the last year, I have been using 1 fund over 8 months, and another one for over 10 months. |
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Post by Karen on Sept 21, 2024 15:51:32 GMT
"I trust it's coincidental, but BMO today raised its YE target to 6,100, the highest on Wall Street!" It's predictable. When SPY goes down 5-6%, you will find negative articles. When SPY breaks the top, analysts must change their forecast. Well, posters here I trust are very aware about certain things being predictable. But, apparently every brokerage and T/A other than BMO and uncleharley have not been informed* about your purported mandatory change as they are the only ones who have just revised their targets. And I trust neither of them made their respective changes based simply on the SPX (not SPY) hitting a new high. * = FWIW, my beloved husband (RIP), who worked in the business for 30+ years, including about 10 years as a market analyst, was never informed of this either. EDIT: And, for a full and factual disclosure, a BMO spokesperson this AM stated that the raising of their YE S&P target was drafted in a press release TWO DAYS PRIOR to the Fed announcement and published BEFORE the market opened Thursday and thusly BEFORE the SPX hit its new high. And apparently nobody has ever told Ed Yardeni about the purported mandatory change: www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-delivered-the-stock-market-to-the-promised-land-why-the-s-p-500-could-soar-past-6-000-by-year-end-b7837c90?mod=home-pageExcerpt:We’ve been using a forward P/E of 21.0 to get our year-end S&P 500 targets, respectively, of 5,800, 6,300,and 6,800 for 2024, 2025 and 2026. We’ve decided to stick with these targets but acknowledge that the risk of a melt-up has increased, as noted above. In a melt-up scenario, the S&P 500 could soar above 6,000 by the end of this year. While that would be extremely bullish in the near term, it would increase the likelihood of a correction early next year. |
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being predictable.