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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 24, 2024 0:20:25 GMT
An update. The Barometer scores the Index as undervalued with a reading of 39 as of Monday's market close. On Friday the Barometer closed with a reading of 35. With this, there was improvement in investor sentiment on Monday. A reading below 50 would be considered to have a bearish bias and a reading above 50 would have a bullish bias. Thought you might find this update and comment of some interest. oldskeet, thank YOU for your valuable comments, and I do enjoy reading them!
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 25, 2024 8:06:44 GMT
Hi guys. An update. As of Wednesday's market close the Barometer reflected that the S&P500 Index was scored at fair value with a reading of 43. Although the reading has been rising over the past three days since the reading is below 50 it is considered to have a bearish tilt.
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 25, 2024 10:53:49 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -1.8% (below average; turned negative after 18 months)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 46.79% (negative)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 45.20% (negative)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
There is earnings season stock volatility. The US banks (JPM, etc) are in the middle of the US sanctions on Russia.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 25, 2024 13:25:44 GMT
!ST qtr GDP came in less than expected. Futures look negative so I guess no one expects interest rates to come down with a weaker than expected economy. I think I'll take the rest of the day off.
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Post by anitya on Apr 26, 2024 16:33:15 GMT
US Equity price action today is opposite of what happened last Friday. During this week, inflation surprised to the upside but US equities got a boost from big tech earnings and happy forward guidance. Forward guidance is all investors cared: Tesla missed massively on earnings and revenue but gave favorable guidance for 2H 2025 and investors were giddy, whereas META easily beat both earnings and revenue but gave forward guidance that included big AI spend and investors had a massive tantrum. China tech stocks perked up during the week.
It would be good to have a play book if stagflation becomes a reality. Any one?
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Post by Chahta on Apr 26, 2024 16:49:24 GMT
US Equity price action today is opposite of what happened last Friday. During this week, inflation surprised to the upside but US equities got a boost from big tech earnings and happy forward guidance. Forward guidance is all investors cared: Tesla missed massively on earnings and revenue but gave favorable guidance for 2H 2025 and investors were giddy, whereas META easily beat both earnings and revenue but gave forward guidance that included big AI spend and investors had a massive tantrum. China tech stocks perked up during the week. It would be good to have a play book if stagflation becomes a reality. Any one? I am not smart enough to have a play book. What I see is a market that wants to go up because it fights off bad news, like yesterday's and today's news.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 26, 2024 19:55:19 GMT
US Equity price action today is opposite of what happened last Friday. During this week, inflation surprised to the upside but US equities got a boost from big tech earnings and happy forward guidance. Forward guidance is all investors cared: Tesla missed massively on earnings and revenue but gave favorable guidance for 2H 2025 and investors were giddy, whereas META easily beat both earnings and revenue but gave forward guidance that included big AI spend and investors had a massive tantrum. China tech stocks perked up during the week. It would be good to have a play book if stagflation becomes a reality. Any one? Many commodities appear ready to resume their recent parabolic rise after a little consolidation this past week. The Ag commodities along with nearly any kind of metal appear to be poised for double didget gains by years end. Van Eck & Invesco have a stable of ETFs that I use. Commodities have historically been a nice hedge against inflation.
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Post by archer on Apr 26, 2024 23:06:44 GMT
US Equity price action today is opposite of what happened last Friday. During this week, inflation surprised to the upside but US equities got a boost from big tech earnings and happy forward guidance. Forward guidance is all investors cared: Tesla missed massively on earnings and revenue but gave favorable guidance for 2H 2025 and investors were giddy, whereas META easily beat both earnings and revenue but gave forward guidance that included big AI spend and investors had a massive tantrum. China tech stocks perked up during the week. It would be good to have a play book if stagflation becomes a reality. Any one? Many commodities appear ready to resume their recent parabolic rise after a little consolidation this past week. The Ag commodities along with nearly any kind of metal appear to be poised for double didget gains by years end. Van Eck & Invesco have a stable of ETFs that I use. Commodities have historically been a nice hedge against inflation. Do you mean double digit gains starting now? PDBA is already up 26% YTD. I've also been watching CPER (copper ETF) up 18%. I've been afraid to buy either this late in the run. CPER is a couple % or so from reaching an all time high. I might take your encouragement but with a trailing stop. I wish I had bought PDBA when you first mentioned it earlier this year!
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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 27, 2024 0:34:29 GMT
US Equity price action today is opposite of what happened last Friday. During this week, inflation surprised to the upside but US equities got a boost from big tech earnings and happy forward guidance. Forward guidance is all investors cared: Tesla missed massively on earnings and revenue but gave favorable guidance for 2H 2025 and investors were giddy, whereas META easily beat both earnings and revenue but gave forward guidance that included big AI spend and investors had a massive tantrum. China tech stocks perked up during the week. It would be good to have a play book if stagflation becomes a reality. Any one? Stagflation is an unlikely scenario - mainly because it would happen when the Fed is "hands-off," circa 1970s... Since the GFC, we have a Fed that is the "puppet master" manipulating asset prices - and acquiring "toxic" assets on to their perpetual balance sheet. New schemes WILL be invented to make sure stagflation does not happen. Just my 2 cents.. or less.. depending on inflation -
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 27, 2024 1:31:43 GMT
Many commodities appear ready to resume their recent parabolic rise after a little consolidation this past week. The Ag commodities along with nearly any kind of metal appear to be poised for double didget gains by years end. Van Eck & Invesco have a stable of ETFs that I use. Commodities have historically been a nice hedge against inflation. Do you mean double digit gains starting now? PDBA is already up 26% YTD. I've also been watching CPER (copper ETF) up 18%. I've been afraid to buy either this late in the run. CPER is a couple % or so from reaching an all time high. I might take your encouragement but with a trailing stop. I wish I had bought PDBA when you first mentioned it earlier this year! Actually, I was thinking mostly about GDXU, but there are many to choose from. I would prefer that you make your own choices.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 27, 2024 1:40:04 GMT
Hi guys. For the week the S&P500 Index gained 133 points (2.68%). However, thus far this month it has given up 154 points and sits 2.93% off it's recent 52 week high. The US10YrT thus far this month has moved from a yield of 4.21% to 4.67% for a 46 basis points gain. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 44 (fair value with a bearish tilt) and for the month gave up 34 points moving from a reading of 78 (overvalued with bullish bias). This downward movement was mostly because of higher inflation reports and longer than expected higher interest rates for longer. Current earnings reporting and guidance will direct near term market movement.
For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy CEF continues to lead with a track score of 20.4, followed by EEM with a score of 10.3 and in third was DBC with a score of 9.72. For the month the strong performers have been the metals and commodities. For the sectors XLE continues it's lead with a track score of 18.82, followed by XLB with a score of 9.54, and in third was XLI with a score of 9.25. For the month XLE and XLI were the strong performers.
This past week I did a little buying in my equity income sleeve when the Index was off it's 52 week high by about 5.5%. During the month I have bought both bonds and stock funds.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing. Old_Skeet
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Post by archer on Apr 27, 2024 3:11:38 GMT
Do you mean double digit gains starting now? PDBA is already up 26% YTD. I've also been watching CPER (copper ETF) up 18%. I've been afraid to buy either this late in the run. CPER is a couple % or so from reaching an all time high. I might take your encouragement but with a trailing stop. I wish I had bought PDBA when you first mentioned it earlier this year! Actually, I was thinking mostly about GDXU, but there are many to choose from. I would prefer that you make your own choices. I always do. I suspect many of us get buy/sell ideas from each other on this forum, and follow up with our own due diligence. I can see how the wording in my post could cause concern, but I do consider carefully before making trades.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 27, 2024 12:35:53 GMT
There is not much I can add except that I like to use the index GSCI when I am trying to figure where the metals may be going. It is a broad based index composed of industrial metals, unlike the CRB which is dominated by energy and also contains data on agricultural commodities. The weekly GSCI [symbol $GYX on stockcharts] has recently broken above the 38.2% level on a FIBO tool after a nicely formed rounded bottom. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GYX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p64782664549&a=412434405&listNum=86
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Post by anitya on Apr 28, 2024 13:11:36 GMT
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Post by anitya on Apr 29, 2024 20:33:32 GMT
Did we solve world hunger over the weekend? Why is PDBA down today on nearly 7.5 times average volume?
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Post by anitya on Apr 30, 2024 1:13:57 GMT
Latest Lyn Alden article - www.lynalden.com/most-investments-are-bad/"The types of investments that worked well during the past four decades are less likely to work quite as well over the next four decades. The virtuous cycle of ever-lower interest rates, ever-higher private debt levels, and ever-higher equity valuations, is likely getting past its prime, and is at risk of rolling over into a vicious cycle in the other direction. And in that shifting environment, it’s important to remember that most investments are bad. The majority of unlevered businesses are not strong enough to produce returns for passive investors that outperform T-bills or gold. The majority of unlevered real estate properties, after maintenance and operation and taxes are considered, also fail to outperform basic assets like gold. So in that environment, from the perspective of a passive outside investor looking to deploy capital, it’s important to either seek out the businesses that have durable competitive advantages (network effects, powerful brands, intangible property, economies of scale, oligopoly participation, and so forth), or to be very sensitive to valuations when buying mediocre companies. The prior four decades are unlikely to be a good dataset for back-testing and forming strategies that will work for next four decades, because the conditions will likely be quite different."
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Post by yogibearbull on May 2, 2024 10:39:42 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +6.0% (average; flip-flop)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 41.94% (negative)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 39.20% (negative)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
FOMC held rates; hikes unlikely. QT reduced from Jun 1 to -$60 b/mo (vs -$95 b/mo now).
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Post by steadyeddy on May 2, 2024 11:43:32 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +6.0% (average; flip-flop) %Above 50-dMA for NYSE 41.94% (negative) %Above 50-dMA for SP500 39.20% (negative) (Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70) FOMC held rates; hikes unlikely. QT reduced from Jun 1 to -$60 b/mo (vs -$95 b/mo now). To my simple mind, reduction of QT amount is in a way an easing step. When someone asked Powell, he didn't quite agree with that assessment. One thing worth noting is investors are brutally punishing companies that are missing expectations or setting lower expectations.. think SBUX and CVS yesterday both down over 15%. The tech fever is still high, and the market concentration is still very high. I predict a hard landing sooner rather than later.
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Post by yogibearbull on May 2, 2024 12:01:35 GMT
It has been noted in the media that individual stock volatility is quite high. SP500 VIX smooths the effect, so don't be fooled by low VIX.
In answering the question - why hold rates (to keep the policy tight), but reduce QT (to make the policy a bit easier)? - Powell said that its main tool was/is the fed fund rates and QT is of secondary significance. Reducing QT also helps with m-mkt liquidity.
Both the rate hold and QT reduction were well telegraphed in advance (see weekend Barron's, Part 1, Up & Down Wall Street by Forsyth). The main takeaway yesterday was that rates are unlikely to go up.
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Post by Chahta on May 2, 2024 12:18:33 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +6.0% (average; flip-flop) %Above 50-dMA for NYSE 41.94% (negative) %Above 50-dMA for SP500 39.20% (negative) (Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70) FOMC held rates; hikes unlikely. QT reduced from Jun 1 to -$60 b/mo (vs -$95 b/mo now). To my simple mind, reduction of QT amount is in a way an easing step. When someone asked Powell, he didn't quite agree with that assessment. One thing worth noting is investors are brutally punishing companies that are missing expectations or setting lower expectations.. think SBUX and CVS yesterday both down over 15%. The tech fever is still high, and the market concentration is still very high. I predict a hard landing sooner rather than later. I don't know what type of landing it will be, but we have been in a gliding approach for quite a while. We are tolerating 3-4% inflation. I might have missed the news; not much mention of mass layoffs. I have heard before that a certain amount of QT (I forget the exact amount) equates to 25 BP of rate increase so if QT is decreased then effective rate increases are lowered. So it seems the effect of QT is "off the books". We get the effect of a rate increase without an actual increase.
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Post by racqueteer on May 2, 2024 12:49:16 GMT
So it seems the effect of QT is "off the books". We get the effect of a rate increase without an actual increase. I suspect that is the point and has been for some time. Being seen to behave in one way, while simultaneously doing another in the background, produces the benefits without openly having to face the consequences. A very neat fiscal two-step!
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Post by anitya on May 2, 2024 18:19:43 GMT
why are China stocks up like they are Meme stocks? KWEB is up 9% on the day.
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Post by chang on May 2, 2024 19:27:12 GMT
why are China stocks up like they are Meme stocks? KWEB is up 9% on the day. Maybe time to add to EMs?
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Post by uncleharley on May 2, 2024 20:20:58 GMT
FWIW, The S&P 500 appears to be back on its bullish track, at least for the short term. 5750 or bust.
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Post by richardsok on May 2, 2024 23:51:54 GMT
FWIW, The S&P 500 appears to be back on its bullish track, at least for the short term. 5750 or bust. I'm not seeing broad market bullish signals yet. FWIW.
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Post by steadyeddy on May 3, 2024 1:15:56 GMT
FWIW, The S&P 500 appears to be back on its bullish track, at least for the short term. 5750 or bust. We will see 46 handle before the 57 handle - just my 2.8 cents (it used to be 2 cents a couple of years ago).
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Post by uncleharley on May 3, 2024 1:45:23 GMT
FWIW, The S&P 500 appears to be back on its bullish track, at least for the short term. 5750 or bust. We will see 46 handle before the 57 handle - just my 2.8 cents (it used to be 2 cents a couple of years ago). Perhaps. I see 48 as a stronger possibility.
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Post by oldskeet on May 4, 2024 8:46:35 GMT
Hi guys. As of Friday's market close the S&P500 Index gained 28 points closing at 5128. Year to date it is up 7.5%; but, off it's 52 week high by 2.4%. The US10YrT closed with a yield of 4.5%, down 17 basis points for the week. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 42, fair value with a bearish tilt.
For the Win, Place Show Leadership Investment Strategy there was a big change as the metals and commodities fell and the new pack leaders are EEM with a track score of 15.85 followed by EPP with a score of 7.73 and in third is QQQ with a score of 6.64. For the sectors value is finding some traction as XLU is the new leader with a track score of 20.6, followed by XLP with a score of 10.98 and in third is XLI with a score of 4.82.
For the week Old_Skeet made no buys or sells and just watched the rotations within the market along with collecting monthly income distributions coming from my mutual funds.
Thanks for stopping by.
Wishing All Good Investing!
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Post by chang on May 4, 2024 10:10:24 GMT
Happy to see EEM in front. EM equity is one of my 2024 plays, via FEDDX (all cap blend) and FSEAX (Asian LC growth). Those positions are up 6% and 11% since purchase during Jan-Feb.
Maybe time to add, but they’re in a fully-invested IRA so adding means subtracting from something else. But I own FBGRX in this account, which I can always sell and (if desired) own an equivalent amount of tax-efficient FBCG in my individual account.
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Post by uncleharley on May 4, 2024 12:10:59 GMT
There is not much I can add except that the NDX and SPX appear to have completed their correction and could move up from here. My port closed the week with just a minor gain. I am fully invested and looking forward to the Fed to begin talking about reducing rates.
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