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Post by anitya on Apr 18, 2024 2:05:23 GMT
DJT and DJI indexes indicate the broader stock market indexes have found support today. The other indexes have not confirmed so maybe tomorrow they will. Oh Well!! That didn't work. That confirms that we should always wait for confirmation. Any update after today’s price action. I noticed both transports and SMH were down today. There were some sectors and industries that put in an uptick today. Is there a rotation going on underneath the surface or the current price action an indication of consolidation that can break down or break out. Small cap index never regained the 2021 high. Mid cap index dipped below 2021 high. Large cap index is still above prior high. Last Friday I hoped the sell off was April 15 related but yesterday’s price action confirmed April 15 was not the primary driver. Defensive sectors outperformed today but value stocks did better too. Was it just a reflection of 2- 30 yr Treasury rates being down today why these things performed better? What gives me a pause is dips are not getting bought out like before. TV pundits have not yet turned sour on equities. I might have to stop watching TV before they turn negative.
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 18, 2024 10:54:56 GMT
Sentiments have collapsed.
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +4.3% (below average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 30.70% (edge of negative)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 30.00% (edge of negative)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
Maybe 0-2 Fed rate cuts in 2024. Israel's response to Iran's attack is awaited.
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Post by anitya on Apr 18, 2024 18:33:16 GMT
Recently Powell said he was surprised by the cooling of inflation without the economic pain he had predicted/ anticipated. So, may be we should not assume we are past the possibility of economic pain.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 18, 2024 18:35:09 GMT
DJT and DJI indexes indicate the broader stock market indexes have found support today. The other indexes have not confirmed so maybe tomorrow they will. Oh Well!! That didn't work. That confirms that we should always wait for confirmation. Any update after today’s price action. I noticed both transports and SMH were down today. There were some sectors and industries that put in an uptick today. Is there a rotation going on underneath the surface or the current price action an indication of consolidation that can break down or break out. Small cap index never regained the 2021 high. Mid cap index dipped below 2021 high. Large cap index is still above prior high. Last Friday I hoped the sell off was April 15 related but yesterday’s price action confirmed April 15 was not the primary driver. Defensive sectors outperformed today but value stocks did better too. Was it just a reflection of 2- 30 yr Treasury rates being down today why these things performed better? What gives me a pause is dips are not getting bought out like before. TV pundits have not yet turned sour on equities. I might have to stop watching TV before they turn negative. The rising VIX and VXN indicate that the broader stock market is being driven by fear and confusion. The VIX opened today with a 5+% loss and is near or above zero now. VXN is having a similar day. We are in the middle of Quartey earnings and the SPX is trying to fill a 2 month old gap rather than rally on. If it bounces up after the fill, we are still in a consolidation pattern. If it continues on down, we are in a correction pattern with some more to go down. VIX and VXN are reflecting that uncertainty. The daily close should tell us more, but I am leaning towards correction. I am not making a move yet. UH
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Post by anitya on Apr 18, 2024 21:19:46 GMT
Any update after today’s price action. I noticed both transports and SMH were down today. There were some sectors and industries that put in an uptick today. Is there a rotation going on underneath the surface or the current price action an indication of consolidation that can break down or break out. Small cap index never regained the 2021 high. Mid cap index dipped below 2021 high. Large cap index is still above prior high. Last Friday I hoped the sell off was April 15 related but yesterday’s price action confirmed April 15 was not the primary driver. Defensive sectors outperformed today but value stocks did better too. Was it just a reflection of 2- 30 yr Treasury rates being down today why these things performed better? What gives me a pause is dips are not getting bought out like before. TV pundits have not yet turned sour on equities. I might have to stop watching TV before they turn negative. A ********** The rising VIX and VXN indicate that the broader stock market is being driven by fear and confusion. The VIX opened today with a 5+% loss and is near or above zero now. VXN is having a similar day. We are in the middle of Quartey earnings and the SPX is trying to fill a 2 month old gap rather than rally on. If it bounces up after the fill, we are still in a consolidation pattern. If it continues on down, we are in a correction pattern with some more to go down. VIX and VXN are reflecting that uncertainty. The daily close should tell us more, but I am leaning towards correction. I am not making a move yet. UH I see two gaps in mid Feb: one down and another up, cancelling pretty much out. Is that too simplistic and that is not how it works? If the latter gap need to fill, that is 1% lower from here. The next gap is not for another 12% down. Re inflation, I think we are a different economy now than previous bouts of inflation. Being a mostly service economy, not sure how much higher interest rates can tamp down inflation. Also, middle class and higher are making good returns with no risk and so they will continue to spend. But the consumer loans and small businesses dependent on operating loans need lower interest rates, which is what Powell focused on. I just received my home owners insurance renewal and the premium went up by 50%, which is after big increases the last two years. We make higher interest income and pay for higher service inflation.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 18, 2024 21:22:55 GMT
FWIW, the SPX closed in that gap I mentioned above and it will sit there at least overnight. I like what I am holding for whatever happens in the short term so I will probably not be making any changes.
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Post by anitya on Apr 19, 2024 19:45:25 GMT
Does not look like today is the near term bottom for SPX or QQQ. A lot of the speculative stuff is doing well today.
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 19, 2024 19:57:56 GMT
anitya, well, today is the Bitcoin-Halving day - watch around 7:45 PM Central for this 4-yr event. On this historic day (for Bitcoin), (speculative) cryptos sold off in the AM on the news of a minor Israeli response to Iran, but those recovered nicely.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 19, 2024 20:17:28 GMT
The S&P 500 accelerated thru that gap and appears to be headed lower. Next support level is 4800. Commodities, except energy, are doing well. Tech is getting beat up.
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Post by racqueteer on Apr 19, 2024 20:31:16 GMT
Does not look like today is the near term bottom for SPX or QQQ. A lot of the speculative stuff is doing well today. What speculative stuff is doing well today? AI-related stuff is getting hammered. ARK funds are down 'bigly'. Bitcoin is struggling. PM seems pretty normal. Marijuana isn't doing anything. The only stuff which seems to be doing well is stuff like DVY, HDV, CDC. As I joked elsewhere, maybe more people have taken up smoking?
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Post by racqueteer on Apr 19, 2024 20:45:21 GMT
The S&P 500 accelerated thru that gap and appears to be headed lower. Next support level is 4800. Commodities, except energy, are doing well. Tech is getting beat up. I noticed that we are right around the 100 dma level. In your experience, is the support/resistance level or the dma levels more impactful? The support level might suggest more downside, but the dma might indicate a type of 'support' right here. I have a tough time with evaluating these apparently-conflicted indicators. Is there maybe a tiebreaker?
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Post by anitya on Apr 19, 2024 20:57:58 GMT
Does not look like today is the near term bottom for SPX or QQQ. A lot of the speculative stuff is doing well today. What speculative stuff is doing well today? AI-related stuff is getting hammered. ARK funds are down 'bigly'. Bitcoin is struggling. PM seems pretty normal. Marijuana isn't doing anything. The only stuff which seems to be doing well is stuff like DVY, HDV, CDC. As I joked elsewhere, maybe more people have taken up smoking? I should have been more specific. I came back to add more color and saw your reply. My trading account is up 1% today and the equities in my investment account are down 1%. What I meant speculative is what I trade: small - mid caps - value. ARK funds, PTON, etc are more lottery than speculative for me. I have moved Bitcoin from lottery to speculative investment (because I own it now). In my mind, other Crypto coins are lottery. I do not consider tech sector speculative but their valuations have been speculative and that is where most of the smoking has been lately. Bitcoin seem to move with the Tech sector - I do not know why - and it does not seem to compete with Gold. Bitcoin has not traded like a competition to USD either or as a go to asset for risk off. I am happy to delete my original post if you think it is misleading.
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Post by archer on Apr 19, 2024 21:33:40 GMT
anitya, I've been trading small and mid caps also. Currently I am leveraged in both, and really should have gotten out before now, but have not wanted to get whipsawed on selling. Anyway I have a theory that when the $TNX is going up, smalls will likely struggle, since small companies tend to depend on borrowing more. (I doubt amazon and apple etc. need to borrow but that's just my theory). $TNX printed nice candles on the 16th and 17th and rates have been coming down this week, so maybe smalls will bottom soon. In the future I just need to get out near resistance even if it means possibly missing out on a few %.
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Post by racqueteer on Apr 19, 2024 21:40:22 GMT
What speculative stuff is doing well today? AI-related stuff is getting hammered. ARK funds are down 'bigly'. Bitcoin is struggling. PM seems pretty normal. Marijuana isn't doing anything. The only stuff which seems to be doing well is stuff like DVY, HDV, CDC. As I joked elsewhere, maybe more people have taken up smoking? I should have been more specific. I came back to add more color and saw your reply. My trading account is up 1% today and the equities in my investment account are down 1%. What I meant speculative is what I trade: small - mid caps - value. ARK funds, PTON, etc are more lottery than speculative for me. I have moved Bitcoin from lottery to speculative investment (because I own it now). In my mind, other Crypto coins are lottery. I do not consider tech sector speculative but their valuations have been speculative and that is where most of the smoking has been lately. Bitcoin seem to move with the Tech sector - I do not know why - and it does not seem to compete with Gold. Bitcoin has not traded like a competition to USD either or as a go to asset for risk off. I am happy to delete my original post if you think it is misleading. No, just a difference in what we're calling speculative. There were definitely some tradable assets today; if you could get in in a timely fashion.
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Post by anitya on Apr 19, 2024 22:00:51 GMT
I see two gaps in mid Feb: one down and another up, cancelling pretty much out. Is that too simplistic and that is not how it works? If the latter gap need to fill, that is 1% lower from here. The next gap is not for another 12% down. I am using SPY. That Feb gap is from Feb 21 close of 495.67. Today's close is 495.16. So, today's close breached through that Feb gap. Your last post today makes sense. The next unfilled gap is near 440 (November) but I see your indication of next support at 480 (that is also the Jan 2022 peak); I may start buying there. Thanks.
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Post by anitya on Apr 19, 2024 22:14:42 GMT
anitya , I've been trading small and mid caps also. Currently I am leveraged in both, and really should have gotten out before now, but have not wanted to get whipsawed on selling. Anyway I have a theory that when the $TNX is going up, smalls will likely struggle, since small companies tend to depend on borrowing more. (I doubt amazon and apple etc. need to borrow but that's just my theory). $TNX printed nice candles on the 16th and 17th and rates have been coming down this week, so maybe smalls will bottom soon. In the future I just need to get out near resistance even if it means possibly missing out on a few %. True but I can make a case for why you should have continued to hold small caps if you are holding funds. Individual stocks can behave different from funds. The thing about mid-caps is that the index went past 2021 high and then fell back through that support which is a tell that something is not right but how far below that support do you take the ball and go home when they have been in purgatory for so long (how much time out is enough time out?) but definitely worth lightening up at some point when that support was breached. Again, individual stocks can behave different from funds.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 20, 2024 1:33:24 GMT
The S&P 500 accelerated thru that gap and appears to be headed lower. Next support level is 4800. Commodities, except energy, are doing well. Tech is getting beat up. I noticed that we are right around the 100 dma level. In your experience, is the support/resistance level or the dma levels more impactful? The support level might suggest more downside, but the dma might indicate a type of 'support' right here. I have a tough time with evaluating these apparently-conflicted indicators. Is there maybe a tiebreaker? Good question. Since the S&P dropped past the above mentioned gap on strong trading volume, I feel it will drop past the 100 dma also as well as the 101, 103, etc. The level at 4800 is supported by a 38.2 Fibo retracement point as well as being the top of a previous consolidation which resulted in a volume based support level. That does not mean that 4800 is a sure thing, it just means that the 100 dma looks maybe as strong as the gap that just failed and the 4800 level looks like the next good possibility. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p94013376090&listNum=86&a=412512122
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 20, 2024 10:31:38 GMT
Hi guys. First, let me give a thank you to those that have kept the thread active with comments this week while I was away.
For the third week in a row the S&P500 has declined and closed the week with a reading of 4967. This put the Index down for the week by 156 points (3.0%) and 287 points (5.5%) from it's 52 week closing high. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 4.61%. Thus far this month it has had a 40 basis points gain. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 35, undervalued. Thus far this month it had a 43 point decline.
The major headwinds have been headline news events centering around the Middle East, rising inflation reports, a delay in interest rate cuts and downward earning revisions. With this, no doubt, the stock market has developed a bearish tilt.
For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy the leader continues to be CEF with a track score of 34.45, followed by DBC with a score of 7.75 and in third is SHV with a score of 3.14. For the sectors, XLE continues to lead with a track score of 21.23, followed by XLU with a score of 12.67 and in third wasXLF with a score of 5.98.
During the week I did a little equity buying in my domestic equity income sleeve and thus far have gains in these buys.
To me, it looks like more downside ahead and since I am a buy and hold investor I will most likely do some more select buying around the edges in my income and dividend paying funds.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing.
OS
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Post by racqueteer on Apr 20, 2024 11:40:48 GMT
I noticed that we are right around the 100 dma level. In your experience, is the support/resistance level or the dma levels more impactful? The support level might suggest more downside, but the dma might indicate a type of 'support' right here. I have a tough time with evaluating these apparently-conflicted indicators. Is there maybe a tiebreaker? Good question. Since the S&P dropped past the above mentioned gap on strong trading volume, I feel it will drop past the 100 dma also as well as the 101, 103, etc. The level at 4800 is supported by a 38.2 Fibo retracement point as well as being the top of a previous consolidation which resulted in a volume based support level. That does not mean that 4800 is a sure thing, it just means that the 100 dma looks maybe as strong as the gap that just failed and the 4800 level looks like the next good possibility. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p94013376090&listNum=86&a=412512122Thanks, UH. It's interesting that the chart you referenced appears to be trying to establish a base at the current level, has a MACD which may have turned upward, an RSI which bounced off the 30 level (which is often where buying seems to kick in), and is right at the 100 dma. While no guarantee, and certainly not as strong as the level support, to me, it looks hopeful here for the DOW. Further thoughts about my reading of things?
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 20, 2024 12:15:47 GMT
Good question. Since the S&P dropped past the above mentioned gap on strong trading volume, I feel it will drop past the 100 dma also as well as the 101, 103, etc. The level at 4800 is supported by a 38.2 Fibo retracement point as well as being the top of a previous consolidation which resulted in a volume based support level. That does not mean that 4800 is a sure thing, it just means that the 100 dma looks maybe as strong as the gap that just failed and the 4800 level looks like the next good possibility. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p94013376090&listNum=86&a=412512122Thanks, UH. It's interesting that the chart you referenced appears to be trying to establish a base at the current level, has a MACD which may have turned upward, an RSI which bounced off the 30 level (which is often where buying seems to kick in), and is right at the 100 dma. While no guarantee, and certainly not as strong as the level support, to me, it looks hopeful here for the DOW. Further thoughts about my reading of things? Could you link the chart you are looking at? I read my chart a lot differently.
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Post by racqueteer on Apr 20, 2024 12:50:37 GMT
Thanks, UH. It's interesting that the chart you referenced appears to be trying to establish a base at the current level, has a MACD which may have turned upward, an RSI which bounced off the 30 level (which is often where buying seems to kick in), and is right at the 100 dma. While no guarantee, and certainly not as strong as the level support, to me, it looks hopeful here for the DOW. Further thoughts about my reading of things? Could you link the chart you are looking at? I read my chart a lot differently. Weird... When I originally clicked your link, I somehow got a chart of $INDU, and all my comments were related to that chart. The other indexes are not exhibiting that basing, etc. Your link is now taking me elsewhere, and I have no idea what happened!?
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 20, 2024 14:36:06 GMT
My comments were and are based on the daily chart for the S&P 500. The Dow chart will probably be different, but similar. The weekly chart would be different from the daily. Setting on the various indicators and chart lay out will also give one different readings. When data is updated can also affect readings on different charting sites. If a chart site is free, it seems that updates can be performed randomly. I use a paid subscription from Stock Charts exclusively for my charting.
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 20, 2024 14:51:12 GMT
uncleharley subscribes to StockCharts, so some chart links with advanced features may open only to StockCharts default Home w/DJIA for nonsubscribers. uncleharley may test his charts on an unsigned browser to see if they will post as intended, and if not, then may be modify them or post screenshots.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 20, 2024 17:58:45 GMT
uncleharley subscribes to StockCharts, so some chart links with advanced features may open only to StockCharts default Home w/DJIA for nonsubscribers. uncleharley may test his charts on an unsigned browser to see if they will post as intended, and if not, then may be modify them or post screenshots. Or delete some features that are not necessary on a particular chart.
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Post by anitya on Apr 21, 2024 22:10:22 GMT
I noticed that we are right around the 100 dma level. In your experience, is the support/resistance level or the dma levels more impactful? The support level might suggest more downside, but the dma might indicate a type of 'support' right here. I have a tough time with evaluating these apparently-conflicted indicators. Is there maybe a tiebreaker? Good question. Since the S&P dropped past the above mentioned gap on strong trading volume, I feel it will drop past the 100 dma also as well as the 101, 103, etc. The level at 4800 is supported by a 38.2 Fibo retracement point as well as being the top of a previous consolidation which resulted in a volume based support level. That does not mean that 4800 is a sure thing, it just means that the 100 dma looks maybe as strong as the gap that just failed and the 4800 level looks like the next good possibility. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p94013376090&listNum=86&a=412512122Given the latest move (down) in SPY has been driven by the growth sectors (a la XLK, XLC, XLY, etc), I start to wonder if we should look at the cause, i.e., QQQ, to know where the support for SPY could be. In your estimate where is the next good support for QQQ? Previous high for QQQ was $404 on 11/19/2021; current price is $414.65, that would be a 2.5% drop from here. For SPY to reach $480, it has to drop more than 3%. BTW, QQQ has dropped below 100 SMA on Friday and its 200 SMA is currently at $395.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 22, 2024 12:53:53 GMT
Good question. Since the S&P dropped past the above mentioned gap on strong trading volume, I feel it will drop past the 100 dma also as well as the 101, 103, etc. The level at 4800 is supported by a 38.2 Fibo retracement point as well as being the top of a previous consolidation which resulted in a volume based support level. That does not mean that 4800 is a sure thing, it just means that the 100 dma looks maybe as strong as the gap that just failed and the 4800 level looks like the next good possibility. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p94013376090&listNum=86&a=412512122Given the latest move (down) in SPY has been driven by the growth sectors (a la XLK, XLC, XLY, etc), I start to wonder if we should look at the cause, i.e., QQQ, to know where the support for SPY could be. In your estimate where is the next good support for QQQ? Previous high for QQQ was $404 on 11/19/2021; current price is $414.65, that would be a 2.5% drop from here. For SPY to reach $480, it has to drop more than 3%. BTW, QQQ has dropped below 100 SMA on Friday and its 200 SMA is currently at $395. The daily chart for the Q's indicates they should find support at the 409 level. We shall see if it holds.
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Post by anitya on Apr 22, 2024 20:12:27 GMT
I like today's market action in that mid, small and microcaps outperformed large caps and defensive sectors. Growth over value. Yields across the curve are up or unchanged today. Starting to think 10 yr yields are reaching their peak in their current run up. During the last one hour of trading, major indices drifted down to close below today's high but above today's open which was higher than Friday close. yogibearbull , 2yr Treasuries almost at 5%. why are not members talking about being interested in them?
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 22, 2024 20:45:25 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 23, 2024 9:10:51 GMT
Hi guys. Point of Interest and clarification. The US10YrT is used in Old_Skeet's Barometer as a sentiment indicator about both the economy and stocks. Generally, a rising yield results in falling bond prices along with a falling demand for bonds, which means investors prefer higher risk higher reward investments, while a falling yield indicates just the opposite. For me and my use it has nothing to do with forecasting interest rate movement by the FOMC.
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Post by oldskeet on Apr 23, 2024 12:09:01 GMT
An update. The Barometer scores the Index as undervalued with a reading of 39 as of Monday's market close. On Friday the Barometer closed with a reading of 35. With this, there was improvement in investor sentiment on Monday. A reading below 50 would be considered to have a bearish bias and a reading above 50 would have a bullish bias. Thought you might find this update and comment of some interest.
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