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Post by archer on Feb 29, 2024 19:33:06 GMT
uncleharley, Is there a historic stat of which direction the breakout and continuance goes when price breaks out of the ascending pennant? I would guess a reversal is more common than continuing higher, but perhaps not. In other words as price reaches the tip of the pennant, is it considered more bearish than bullish?
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 29, 2024 21:52:31 GMT
uncleharley , Is there a historic stat of which direction the breakout and continuance goes when price breaks out of the ascending pennant? I would guess a reversal is more common than continuing higher, but perhaps not. In other words as price reaches the tip of the pennant, is it considered more bearish than bullish? I have been unable to find that stat and I do not recall seeing it before. My expectation is for a reversal of the current trend after the breakout. One reason is that we are due for a correction after the run we have had over the past 5 months or so. The 2nd reason is the declining trading volume since the gap up last Thursday. The 3rd reason I expect a bearish break is that the past 5 days of trading have formed what probably is an Island Reversal within the Pennant. If that Island does complete, the reversal or fill of the gap would take the price past a bearish break from the pennant. The key here is the declining trading volume of the past 5 days and Thursdays gap up within the Pennant. Since todays good news on inflation did not generate enough interest to drive the closing price to a new high, I have to believe that whatever trips the trigger will have to be a negative and we will be in a correction. EDIT: Stockcharts updated todays reported trading volume while I was writing the above post and volume was above average for today. However the S&P closed short of a new high, consequently I remain bearish for the near term. |
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Post by richardsok on Feb 29, 2024 23:25:32 GMT
uncleharley , Is there a historic stat of which direction the breakout and continuance goes when price breaks out of the ascending pennant? I would guess a reversal is more common than continuing higher, but perhaps not. In other words as price reaches the tip of the pennant, is it considered more bearish than bullish? Not you-know-who. You prob'ly know this, but here's a memo-------- -------- using TA with much simpler basics & applied to low-volatility assets. (Like DIA and JEPQ) Suppose -- Fund XWZ climbs to 103 and then stalls. It slips back to 95-ish over the next few days and then rallies. You wake up tomorrow morning and by 10AM, you see XYZ has broken out into a new high and is now at 104.5 TA 101 : Very bullish signal for XYZ. You BUY and HOLD as long as the MACD or PSAR tell you to. (Use the 3-month or 6-month chart on either Yahoo or SCharts, with a two-day interval setting). For fewer trades and longer term, perhaps use the 10 x 20DMA.) When your signals change, you unload without hesitation or regret. -------------. I am convinced basic forms of tech analysis, applied to low-volatility assets, are mightily valid but suspect most of the more intricate signals & theory. Am also convinced otherwise intelligent investors disregard technical efficacy of the basics, because (A) it's so ridiculously simple and (B) rapid news, hunches, and emotions constantly muddy our thinking about the evidence in front of us. |
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Post by gman57 on Mar 1, 2024 0:07:34 GMT
uncleharley , Is there a historic stat of which direction the breakout and continuance goes when price breaks out of the ascending pennant? I would guess a reversal is more common than continuing higher, but perhaps not. In other words as price reaches the tip of the pennant, is it considered more bearish than bullish? Not you-know-who. You prob'ly know this, but here's a memo-------- -------- using TA with much simpler basics & applied to low-volatility assets. (Like DIA and JEPQ) Suppose -- Fund XWZ climbs to 103 and then stalls. It slips back to 95-ish over the next few days and then rallies. You wake up tomorrow morning and by 10AM, you see XYZ has broken out into a new high and is now at 104.5 TA 101 : Very bullish signal for XYZ. You BUY and HOLD as long as the MACD or PSAR tell you to. (Use the 3-month or 6-month chart on either Yahoo or SCharts, with a two-day interval setting). For fewer trades and longer term, perhaps use the 10 x 20DMA.) When your signals change, you unload without hesitation or regret. -------------. I am convinced basic forms of tech analysis, applied to low-volatility assets, are mightily valid but suspect most of the more intricate signals & theory. Am also convinced otherwise intelligent investors disregard technical efficacy of the basics, because (A) it's so ridiculously simple and (B) rapid news, hunches, and emotions constantly muddy our thinking about the evidence in front of us. Yeah,,,,but what about XWZ??? Is it a buy?   |
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 1, 2024 13:12:18 GMT
Further digging thru the charts reveals that much of the trading activity within the popular indexes tracks the trading activity patterns for NVDA. If one wants to make a trading decision that is based on recent technical indicators, they may do well to focus on one stock, NVDA, rather than the indexes. I have chosen to sit on cash & high yielding CEFS because the markets seem to be due for a correction, but I do not know when it will happen. A short position would have to be short on NVDA stock and I am not ready to do that.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 1, 2024 20:59:09 GMT
IMO, not much changed Stocks: On Nov 1 ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353) = "You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ." Bonds: for several weeks already I posted that for 2024, you can use RPHIX="sub" cash and make about 6%, the next 2 CBLDX, RSIIX can make 7-9%. I'm a trader but I haven't done anything for weeks = smooth charts = 99+% invested. The SP500 chart is on a nice uptrend since early Nov without more than 2.5% decline from any last top. It is one of the easiest stock chart to keep you in and do nothing close to 4 months already. Of course, about 24% increase without major a interruption, you can expect a decline at some point. In the last 2-3 months, I have heard the following on TV and other places.. Valuations are high. The market is narrow. It's only the magnificent 7, then the 5. Volume is down. February is one of the worst months. And my original post from Nov 1st is still intact, the SP500 is an easy choice with a nice uptrend and low risk/SD. But, Other categories joined, for one month ( stockcharts.com/freecharts/sectorsummary.html?O=3) XLY(Consumer Discretionary), XLI(industrial) are ahead of XLK(Tech), and SPY. XLU is the worse with -1.45% Trade the market you have, not the one you want/anticipate/predict. Attachments:
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 2, 2024 10:29:16 GMT
Hi guys. Thru March 1st the S&P500 Index has gained 367 points (7.69%) thus far this year and for the week it made another all time closing high of 5237 gaining 48 points or about 0.94%. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 4.18%, down 8 basis points. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 73, overvalued.
For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy the lead pack was QQQ for the Win with a track score of 20.18, followed by EWJ with a score of 17.93 and in the Place position was SPY with a score of 16.99. Applying the Strategy to the sectors XLC was First with a track score of 19.12 with XLK in Second with a track score of 19.11 and in Third was XLF with a score of 19.09.
Thus far the Index since it began it's run back in late October has gained 1020 points or about 24.78%. It has navigated through the headwinds that it has meat with the most recent being the passage of another Continued Resolution that will fund the Government into September. March tends to be a soft month for the markets. Let's hope that the trend stays in tack and the upward slope continues.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing! Old_Skeet
Additional Comment. I trimmed in the growth area of my portfolio this week and raised a little cash in anticipation of March being soft and feeling a pullback is on the horizon. I generally rebalance when an area becomes overweight it's desired or target weighting which the growth area had. I also like to sell into strength rather than weaknesses.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 2, 2024 13:22:33 GMT
It's a stock pickers market. The indexes have become difficult to assess by me. If we use the S&P indexes, we find that the large caps gained .95% last week, the mid-caps gained 1.84%, & the small caps gained 1.2%. If one has chosen wisely, they are making nice returns. However, if their choices have been average, they are probably waiting for better days. I think those days will come, but I never was good at waiting. Consequently, I have sold My position in the Q's, reinvested 1/2 of the position in a leveraged mid-cap ETF and intend to draw some extra cash for a home improvement project. After all, money is only useful when you spend it.
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Post by anitya on Mar 3, 2024 4:48:57 GMT
uncleharley, Seems like a good time to check back with you about an old topic, especially when investing seems easy. If I were to use 10 month moving average as a market timing tool for SPY, I will have whipsaws, but seems like I can avoid big draw downs. Basically, sell when price goes below the MA 200 and buy back when price goes above the MA. Has anyone seen studies that show that the opportunity cost from false signals is more than compensated by the profit made from correct signals? The ides is to buy and hold but trade only to avoid big draw downs.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 3, 2024 16:08:42 GMT
uncleharley , Seems like a good time to check back with you about an old topic, especially when investing seems easy. If I were to use 10 month moving average as a market timing tool for SPY, I will have whipsaws, but seems like I can avoid big draw downs. Basically, sell when price goes below the MA 200 and buy back when price goes above the MA. Has anyone seen studies that show that the opportunity cost from false signals is more than compensated by the profit made from correct signals? The ides is to buy and hold but trade only to avoid big draw downs. I never rely on only one indicator for a buy, sell, hold decision. I like to have 3 or more indicators telling me there has been a change before I act on it. One indicator can give me an alert that something is becoming weak or strong, but I always want confirmation from another source. |
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Post by archer on Mar 3, 2024 17:13:50 GMT
The main thing I have noticed about using moving averages is that slow MAs whipsaw less often but deeper, and shorter MAs whipsaw more often but more shallow.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 4, 2024 4:51:59 GMT
The main thing I have noticed about using moving averages is that slow MAs whipsaw less often but deeper, and shorter MAs whipsaw more often but more shallow. I tried so many times to work with different MA, and the test results were never great. Short MA = too many trades. Long MA = late to get out + big losses. I don't like either. |
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Post by archer on Mar 4, 2024 5:12:38 GMT
The main thing I have noticed about using moving averages is that slow MAs whipsaw less often but deeper, and shorter MAs whipsaw more often but more shallow. I tried so many times to work with different MA, and the test results were never great. Short MA = too many trades. Long MA = late to get out + big losses. I don't like either. I might be wrong but in the tinkering around I have done with stockcharts, no matter what the indicator is, if you use the same single indicator for entry and exit, results are not worth the trouble. If one indicator was the holy grail, I'm sure we would all know about it by now. But in the context of other considerations, like covid, or interest rates, the odds are better. |
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 4, 2024 17:10:01 GMT
Hi archer. The one indicator that I use in addition to MFI and commodity channel is the slow stoch to help me govern equity ballast. Generally, when below 20 (oversold) and the stoch completes I buy or accumulate and when it is above a reading of 70 (overbought) I trim or sell when the signal breaks.
Moving averages are just that. I do not use them soley on when to buy or sell but use them in conjuction with the others noted above.
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Post by yogibearbull on Mar 7, 2024 11:45:31 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +29.9% (high)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 62.68% (positive)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 73.60% (positive)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
New highs for Bitcoin & gold. The outcome of US election primaries is now known.
I think language-descriptors simplify things. I recall a story of a new recruit who when asked to present new data put an inch-thick old IBM mainframe printer pages in front of his boss and said, "here". He was soon coached that isn't what a presentation meant. Human mind thinks in words, languages, although I sometime think in just numbers.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 7, 2024 14:00:02 GMT
FWIW The S&P 400 Mid cap index closed at a new, all time high yesterday on above average trading volume.
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 7, 2024 17:57:49 GMT
FWIW The S&P 400 Mid cap index closed at a new, all time high yesterday on above average trading volume. Yes...been following MVV and IWR closely. MVV my preference so far. R48 |
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Post by yogibearbull on Mar 7, 2024 18:14:40 GMT
With everything else hitting new highs (DJIA, SP500, mid-caps, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Bitcoin, gold), it won't be long before small-caps do too. I watch better IJR & SPSM than poorly designed/executed IWM. IVV, IJH, IJR, 3-yr stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=IVV&compare=IJH,IJR&id=p11104484795 |
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 7, 2024 21:45:44 GMT
Another nice day for equities. Treasury rates are trending down and Mtg rates dipped this week also.
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Post by richardsok on Mar 7, 2024 22:15:24 GMT
Another nice day for equities. Treasury rates are trending down and Mtg rates dipped this week also. Uh oh. Now you did it. I'm feeling good. |
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 9, 2024 1:32:08 GMT
Hi guys. For the weekending March 8, 2024 the S&P500 Index gave up 13 points (0.25%) closing at 5124 after reaching a new all time high of 5157 on Thursday. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 4.09%. Old_Skeet's Barometer closed the week with a reading of 75, overvalued. For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy EWJ now leads with a track score of 24.95, followed by MDY with a score of 23.75 and in third is, a new comer to the lead pack, CEF with a score of 19.64. For the sectors XLB leads with à score of 21.69, followed by XLI with a score of 19.75 and rounding out the sector leaders is XLK with a score of 18.61. I am still thinking March will be a soft month for stocks with the Witching day coming this Friday March 15 which is a major options expiration day. So, if we get pullbacks this coming week, I could possibly put my buying britches on sometime during the following week. We will just have to see how big money governs. Thanks for stopping by and reading. Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 9, 2024 2:47:00 GMT
My weekly charts indicate that the domestic equity markets are on a bullish trend. While there will be some bumps along the way, the S&P 500 remains on track to reach 5800 or so before, but near yrs end.
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Post by yogibearbull on Mar 14, 2024 11:09:22 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +24.00% (high)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 69.21% (positive, but almost overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 79.00% (overbought)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
The 2nd shoe (CREs) fell on regional banks (KRE) without much damage beyond NYCB. The 1st shoe was the HTM/AFS accounting magic/mess last year that has remained unresolved.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 14, 2024 20:22:31 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +24.00% (high) %Above 50-dMA for NYSE 69.21% (positive, but almost overbought) %Above 50-dMA for SP500 79.00% (overbought) (Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70) The 2nd shoe (CREs) fell on regional banks ( KRE) without much damage beyond NYCB. The 1st shoe was the HTM/AFS accounting magic/mess last year that has remained unresolved. I feel that CRE mess is still unfolding... |
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Post by anitya on Mar 15, 2024 19:47:44 GMT
Well, there goes another reason to follow the market rather than anticipate it. The SPX gapped up at the open and went above my worrisome line of resistance to remain inside the Ascending Pennant pattern. I shoulda kept my TQQQ. Your sale was about 3% above current price. The market did not look that great since your sale. That was a good decision. |
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 15, 2024 21:09:49 GMT
Thank You, Anitya. The market still looks toppy, but not quite bearish. 2,5, & 10yr treasury rates are up against a ytd high but have not broken thru yet. The S&P 500 might find support at 5100 but it isn't there yet. Next week should be interesting, but we're not there yet. Meanwhile I have derisked my portfolio and am holding about 33% cash. I have also decided to spend some unbudgeted money on a couple of home improvement projects.
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 16, 2024 6:21:35 GMT
Hi guys. For the weekending March 15th the S&P500 Index gave up 7 points moving from 5124 to 5117. This is the second week in a row that it has given up points. Year to date it is up 347 points, 7.27%. The barometer scores the Index as overvalued with a reading of 70. The yield on the US10YrT closed the week at 4.30% for a gain of 21 basis points. This amounted to a gain in yield of 5.13% as bonds sold off.
For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy the current lead pack is made up of CEF with a track score of 15.98, followed by EWJ with a score of 12.27 and in third is IEV with a score of 11.85. Applying the same mythology to the S&P500 sectors the lead pack is made up of XLE with a track score of 20.43, followed by XLB with a score of 16.15 and in third is XLF with a score of 12.73. For comparison, SPY's track score computes to 10.79.
Because of the sell off in bonds during the week Old_Skeet did a little buying in his fixed income sleeves with some of his accrued cash. It is interesting as I thought stocks would sell off before bonds but two higher inflation reports, than expected, triggered the sell off in bonds. With this, I am thinking this will delay the FOMC from cutting rates in the near term.
And, so it goes. Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing. Old_Skeet
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Post by yogibearbull on Mar 21, 2024 11:09:28 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +16.00% (high)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 71.41% (overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 78.80% (overbought)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
Fed may keep rates higher for longer. Global rate policies were mixed - US Fed hold, EU hold, BOE hold, BOJ hike, SNB cut.
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Post by mnfish on Mar 22, 2024 13:38:04 GMT
Anyone ever look at the " Buffet Indicator"? Wilshire 5000 / GDP is currently at about 180%. "Berkshire Hathaway's CEO said that stocks would likely be fairly valued at a reading of 100%, and they'd be approaching bargain territory at 70% or 80%. But he warned it would be "playing with fire" to buy them near the 200% mark." A low of 34.6% in 1982, a low of 72.9% in 2002, and a low of 56.8% in 2009 A high of 81.1% in 1972, a high of 136.9% in 2000, a high of 105.2% in 2007, and a high of 208% in (Dec) 2021. Current historical trendline is 122%. "Given the high volatility of the stock market value, the ratio tends to deviate from the trend line quite materially (both above and below), sometimes for decades at a time." Enjoy the ride. |
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 22, 2024 21:12:42 GMT
We invest in the present with hope for the future. History can tell us when to be cautious & when to be bold. This week all of the major domestic stock indexes set new highs, interest rates are stable, & the Commodity Index, CRB, has broken above the top trendline of a Flag pattern. The market data points to blue Skys & new highs ahead. It should last a while, but it remains a stock pickers market.
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