|
Post by oldskeet on Mar 23, 2024 1:14:17 GMT
Hi guys. For the week ending March 22nd the S&P500 Index reach a new all time closing high on Thursday of 5241 and closed the week with a 117 point gain at 5234 for a weekly gain of 2.28%. At the beginning of the year my target for the Index was 5200. Since, this target has now been achieved my new target is 5440 which if achieved would be a 14% gain. The Barometer scores the Index as overvalued with a reading of 75 with strong momentum. The yield on the US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 4.22% down 8 basis points. Thus far, the Index has faced some strong headwinds but has successfully navigated through them as the bull continues to run in spite of these challenges.
For the Win, Place & Show Leadership Investment Strategy EWJ now leads the pack with a track score of 20.88 followed by SPY with a score of 15.64 and in third is MDY with a score of 14.42. For the sectors, XLC leads with a score of 19.09, followed by XLE with a score of 18.98 and in third is XLI with a score of 18.95.
For me, many are saying small caps are due for a run; but, until I see some movement in IJR in the strategy I am comfortable with my current allocation to small caps with plans to open a spiff.
And, so it goes. Thanks for stopping by. Wishing All Good Investing! Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Mar 28, 2024 10:14:00 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +27.6% (approaching mid-Dec high)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 75.13% (overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 83.20% (overbought)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
Frothy areas include meme stocks, SPAC M&A, IPOs, ODTE options, cryptos, gold (but not gold-miners).
|
|
|
Post by catdog on Mar 28, 2024 17:44:37 GMT
oldskeet, Are we now seeing that move in IJR? Thanks for recommending it. I am happy with recent performance, but it was an exciting 10% drop before recovering. catdog
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Mar 28, 2024 19:26:24 GMT
oldskeet, Are we now seeing that move in IJR? Thanks for recommending it. I am happy with recent performance, but it was an exciting 10% drop before recovering. catdog Hi@catdog, Thank you for your question asking my thoughts on IJR. It seems for the past 10 days IJR has caught some wind in its sail. However, it has yet to gain a lead pack position in the Win, Place & Show Leadership Investment Strategy. Being an asset allocator I have yet to overweight the smids in my equity allocation. Currently, in the growth area of my portfolio I am about 70% large cap growth and 30% in the smids. For me, equities as a whole are extended although there has been some rotation taking place I am seeing big money moving money from stocks to cash. Currently, based upon the earnings yield for the S&P500 Index as compared to the yield on the US10YrT the 10Yr is now offering investment competition to stocks. And, should big money continue to sell into stock market strength I see socks beginning a pullback in the coming weeks especially should the FOMC continue to delay anticipated rate cuts. No doubt up coming earnings will be part of nearterm stock outlook as well. With this, look for a change in the wind.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Mar 28, 2024 21:31:13 GMT
Perhaps the wind is dead calm. Since the markets are closed tomorrow, I will give everyone a riddle to occupy themselves over the long weekend. Gold, Silver, Oil, Stock Indexes, & the USD all went up this week. Go figure!!!
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Mar 29, 2024 0:32:12 GMT
oldskeet , Are we now seeing that move in IJR? Thanks for recommending it. I am happy with recent performance, but it was an exciting 10% drop before recovering. catdog catdog,...As oldskeet stated , IJR not yet leading enough for him Suggest look at AVUV Avantis USA Small Cap value ETF...well into new high ground on charts...better momentum and performance. Disclosure...me and other forum members own some AVUV. R48
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Mar 29, 2024 3:11:49 GMT
Hi guys. For the week the S&P500 gained 20 points, 0.38%. For the month it has gained 165 points, 3.24%. And, for the quarter it has gained 484 points, 10.14%. The US10YrT closed the month with a yield of 4.21%. For the quarter it has moved from a yield of 3.84% to a yield of 4.21% for a gain of 37 basis points, 9.64%. The Barometer closed the quarter with a reading of 78, overvalued. In review of the ADX indicator has moved from a reading of 54 to 27 which indicates the trend remains in tack but has wained considerably. With this, it should not be a surprise should a near term pullback occur.
For the Win, Place & Show Leadership Investment Strategy CEF leads with a track score of 17.02, followed by MDY with a score of 16.58 and in the Show position is SPY with a score of 13.83. For the Sectors XLE leads with a track score of 25.94, followed by XLF with a score of 17.77 and in the Show position is XLB with a score of 16.48. In review of the leader scores during the quarter they, for the most part, have been on the decline although positive. This would indicate that the trend remains in tack but has weakened during the quarter. It is worth pointing out that the metals as represented by CEF have begun to show leadership. This could be because inflation is on the uptick.
For me, I bought in my income sleeves when the yield on the US10YrT reached 4.3% last week as I see bonds now becoming a competitor for new money over stocks. It interesting that the forward earnings yield for the Index is pretty much aligned with that of the yield for the US10YrT. Should stocks pullback and sell off I am thinking bonds will benefit with increased valuations.
Although the trend for stocks continues upward, the trend has weakened during the quarter as stock prices have increased. Up coming earning season begins soon. Should earnings disappoint I am thinking a pullback most likely will happen.
So, for me, I continue to accrue cash while I await earnings and a possible near term stock market pullback.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing. Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Mar 29, 2024 12:23:09 GMT
I can only add or make clearer that while stock indexes have continued to move up, momentum, as measured by the MACD indicator on the daily chart, has been flat this year. This divergence does indicate that the domestic stock market is currently very vulnerable to a correction. The MACD has been tracking the S&P 500 on the weekly chart. I would expect a correction to about 4600 on the S&P 500 when it starts. That correction has not yet begun. I remain fully invested.
|
|
|
Post by catdog on Mar 29, 2024 20:21:59 GMT
R48, thank you I will look into AVUV
catdog
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Apr 3, 2024 5:12:15 GMT
OK all you "traders"... take a look at charts for:
--PSCE Invesco Small Cap Energy ETF. Stockcharts T. Bowley likes a lot--good chart if breaks out to upside. In down small caps market today, it went up.
--PSCI Small cap Industrials. Ditto. Has already broken to new highs. Sold off in last two days.
R48
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 4, 2024 11:14:06 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +25.1% (high)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 66.08% (positive)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 75.00% (overbought)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
Good seasonality from Nov 1 - Apr 30; Q1 was best for SP500 since 2019.
|
|
|
Post by archer on Apr 4, 2024 22:39:17 GMT
Perhaps Neel Kashkari's remark about possibly no interest rate cuts this year will be the trigger for a near term dip. I think the Fed is being too transparent. Today we have a bearish engulfing, piercing, close below the 20DMA candle, after a pleasant morning gap up. My head spins LOL!
|
|
|
Post by Capital on Apr 4, 2024 22:42:50 GMT
Perhaps Neel Kashkari's remark about possibly no interest rate cuts this year will be the trigger for a near term dip. I think the Fed is being too transparent. Today we have a bearish engulfing, piercing, close below the 20DMA candle, after a pleasant morning gap up. My head spins LOL! I would agree. The FED is talking too much. What is more they each seem to have a different competing message.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Apr 5, 2024 0:12:34 GMT
Perhaps Neel Kashkari's remark about possibly no interest rate cuts this year will be the trigger for a near term dip. I think the Fed is being too transparent. Today we have a bearish engulfing, piercing, close below the 20DMA candle, after a pleasant morning gap up. My head spins LOL! I would agree. The FED is talking too much. What is more they each seem to have a different competing message. Maybe we'll consolidate for a while.
|
|
|
Post by gman57 on Apr 5, 2024 1:09:55 GMT
Or.... they are talking just enough. The market has been on a tear since what, November? Maybe they want it to slow down and are throwing out info so it does slow down which would make sense and probably better in the long run.
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Apr 6, 2024 10:45:34 GMT
Hi guys. For the weekending April 5th the S&P500 Index gave up 55 points for a decline of a little better than one percent. The US10YrT gained 16 basis points and closed the week with a yield of 4.37%. For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy CEF was the leader with a track score of 33.62, followed by SPY with a score of 12.79, and in third was MDY with a score of 10.98. For the sectors XLE leads with a track score of 34.49, followed by XLI. with a score of 27.93 and in third is XLF with a score of 24.78.
The track score for many of the securities held in the strategy are greatly deminished and falling indicating that the trend is weakening. The Barometer has moved from a December ending reading of 83 down 16 points to a reading of 67, again, reflecting a weakness in the trend. This is not to say there is no opportunity to be had as the metals and energy have been strong performers due to uncertainty with unrest in the Middle East, war in Ukraine, higher than anticipated inflation prints, a delay in interest rate cuts along with some other headwinds. Earnings Season soon begins and if earnings are strong this could provide the fuel needed to lift stocks.
For me, I remain fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation with no spiff (special investment position) engaged at this time. Since my beginning target for the S&P500 Index has been reached, 5200, my new target is somewhere around 5440. If reached, this would represent a 14% gain.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing. Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Apr 6, 2024 12:39:33 GMT
There are no useful stats that I can add. Only this observation that if the fed is still fighting inflation, then the economy must be running a little hot and earnings should be good. I am overweight in Commodities and underweight in big tech.
|
|
|
Post by johntaylor on Apr 7, 2024 17:05:29 GMT
There are a lot of people to follow, but one ya don't hear mentioned often is Henry Ellenbogen (MBA and JD), who had a good record at New Horizons/MediaTel at T Rowe.
Now at Durable Capital (long-only hedge)
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 7, 2024 17:27:45 GMT
Ellenbogen founded the hedge-fund firm Durable Capital after he unexpectedly left Price. He hasn't started any OEF or ETF. He remains on Annual Barron's Roundtable - see his recommendations in January issues.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 11, 2024 10:22:36 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +19.4% (above average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 52.99% (still positive; a quick decline from overbought condition)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 60.40% (positive)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
CPI is rising. Higher rates for longer, maybe 0-2 cuts in 2024. For the week, oil, gold, dollar were all up (unusual).
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Apr 11, 2024 12:35:54 GMT
FWIW, Oil, Gold, & the USD have been trending together on a weekly basis for most of the past year. This is not normal, but I have no explanation for it.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Apr 11, 2024 17:47:37 GMT
FWIW #2, The intra-day charts are indicating the pros are buying the dip today.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Apr 11, 2024 18:09:59 GMT
Scanning the closing price history of SPY, I did not see a 2% drop since end of October. That is how strong the dip buying has been, reminds me of the toilet paper buying frenzy at the beginning of Covid. I blame it on the PyrUP thread in this forum!
|
|
|
Post by oldskeet on Apr 13, 2024 3:38:50 GMT
Hi guys. For the weekending April 12, 2024 the S&P500 Index finished down 76 points closing at 5123. This is the second week in a row that the Index has finished down. It is now down from it's 52 week recent closing high by 131 points, 2.5%. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 4.5%. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 45 indicating a change in investor sentiment is now taking place moving from bullish towards bearish.
For the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy CEF remains the lead with a track score of 29.3, followed by DBC with a score of 13.76, and in third is QQQ with a score of 5.56. For the sectors, XLE continues it's lead with a score of 24.16, followed by XLC with a score of 10.79 and in third is XLI with a score of 8.64.
Not only has the Barometer reading pulled back from a March end reading of 78 to a reading of 45, the track scores for all assets in the Strategy have gone soft as well. While the trend remains, it is going soft . Should we have a third down week, this will speak volumes with perhaps a near term down trend taking place. I am still a believer in the long term outlook with the Index climbing to perhaps the 5400's before year end. With this, my near term outlook is more downside ahead.
So, what has Old_Skeet been doing? I have been buying in my fixed income sleeves as the yield on the US10YrT has been on the rise over the past two weeks. This was a rebalance since stocks have had a strong run for the past five months and brings my asset allocation back in line with neutral weightings.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing! Old_Skeet
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 13, 2024 10:17:35 GMT
There was significant deterioration in %Above 50-dMA from Wednesday to Friday and now those for BOTH NYSE and SP500 are NEGATIVE (below 50%).
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Apr 13, 2024 17:24:28 GMT
After careful study of nearly every broad market index chart that is available to me I have concluded that the broader, domestic stock market is in a normal consolidation phase after a very nice run up in price. The S&P weekly chart still projects a further rise to 57/5800 by yrs end. Meanwhile sticky inflation is showing up in commodities with the CRB index approaching a 2 yr high. Metals seem to have led the way, but energy, coffee, sugar, & wine are losing some momentum on the weekly price charts. I see no reason to change any direction at this time. I remain fully invested with a zero cash position.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 14, 2024 10:27:16 GMT
There is not much that trades over the weekend. VIX was to be trading 24/7 somewhere in the world, but it isn't there. Even gold trading takes a short break over the weekend.
But, cryptos trade all the time. So, looking at it over the last 12 hours,
Bitcoin initially fell 8%, but now down only 4.5%,
Digital-gold (Pax Gold) spiked to $3,098, but then has stabilized around $2,450.
The US futures markets and the Asian markets will open on Sunday evening. The European markets open on Sunday night.
The US market open on Monday should be interesting.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 14, 2024 22:15:02 GMT
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Apr 15, 2024 6:34:20 GMT
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Apr 16, 2024 21:02:09 GMT
DJT and DJI indexes indicate the broader stock market indexes have found support today. The other indexes have not confirmed so maybe tomorrow they will.
Oh Well!! That didn't work. That confirms that we should always wait for confirmation.
|
|