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Post by uncleharley on Feb 20, 2024 21:19:40 GMT
Today seemed to correct some of the wildest enthusiasm in the domestic stock market. VIX & VIXN both closed decidedly up, which was constructive. The major stock indexes closed down for the day but closed above short-term support. Tomorrow should be good.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 21, 2024 21:04:56 GMT
Ditto for today.
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Post by yogibearbull on Feb 22, 2024 11:25:35 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +18.1% (above average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 58.06% (positive)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 64.40% (positive)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
Techs remain strong (NVDA). AMZN replacing WBA in DJIA. Nikkei225 at new high after 34 years!
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 22, 2024 13:29:03 GMT
Domestic stock index futures are suggesting this morning that Yes, a cow can jump over the moon.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 22, 2024 21:13:38 GMT
There was some booking of profits in the last couple of minutes of trading, but the daily chart for the NDX looks like a gap & run pattern to me. If there is a correction I will be looking for support at the 17800/17850 range on the nasdaq 100.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 22, 2024 21:53:01 GMT
IMO, not much changed Stocks: On Nov 1 ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353) = "You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ." Bonds: for several weeks already I posted that for 2024, you can use RPHIX="sub" cash and make about 6%, the next 2 CBLDX, RSIIX can make 7-9%. I'm a trader but I haven't done anything for weeks = smooth charts = 99+% invested. The SP500 chart is on a nice uptrend since early Nov without more than 2.5% decline from any last top. It is one of the easiest stock chart to keep you in and do nothing close to 4 months already. Of course, about 24% increase without major a interruption, you can expect a decline at some point. |
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Post by archer on Feb 22, 2024 22:02:46 GMT
There was some booking of profits in the last couple of minutes of trading, but the daily chart for the NDX looks like a gap & run pattern to me. If there is a correction I will be looking for support at the 17800/17850 range on the nasdaq 100. Perhaps even more so for the S&P. I like that $SPX gapped to an open above the highest close on Feb 9. I wonder though how much of the broad market was swept by NVDA's earnings report blowing out estimates. |
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 23, 2024 14:01:01 GMT
There are no blow out earnings reports due for today so my best thought is that the broader market will try to consolidate some of yesterday's gains. A short-term chart shows support for the SPX at 5000. Full Moon Friday should keep our interests up.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 23, 2024 21:53:48 GMT
Quiet close to a noisy week. The major equity indexes are back on trend after an exciting Thursday. Most of Thursdays advance can be attributed to the blow out earnings report from Nvidia. I say most because the small and mid-caps made nice advances also. That continues to help with market breadth. Weekly trading volume tapered off a bit, but that is not worrisome at this point. I remain fully invested and made no trades this past week.
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Post by oldskeet on Feb 24, 2024 4:30:08 GMT
Hi guys. For the weekending February 23rd. the S&P500 Index gained 83 points (1.65%) closing at a new all time high of 5089. Year to date it has gained 319 points, 6.68%. I am not sure what fuel will continue to propel it forward in the near term so perhaps a pullback or some range bound movement is what will be seen near term. What has propelled it most recently has been better than anticipated earnings along with good economic news. Seems expected interest rate cuts by the FOMC that were expected as early as March might not come to June or later. Then, the third continuing resolution will soon be expiring with a possible Government shutdown looming. The yield on the US10YrT has moved upward for the month from a yield of 4.16% to 4.26%. Do the bond guys know something that the stock jocks don't? Time will tell. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 73, overvalued. And, don't forget inflation is still something that just doesn't want to succumb to the FOMC's target of 2%.
For the Leadership Investment Strategy SPY moved into the lead with a track score of 16.96, followed by QQQ in the place position with a score of 16.46 and moving down into the show position is MDY with a score of 15.45. When applying the same mythology to the S&P500 sectors XLI takes the Win with a track score of 20.12, followed by XLV in the Place position with a score of 19.51 and making Show was XLC with a score of 16.8. XLK crossed with a score of 13.05.
In closing, no doubt, investor sentiment will play the biggest part in the remaining weeks of the first quarter outcome; and, for me, I am just not that enthused. Thus far First Quarter stock returns have been better than I anticipated. I remain long term bullish with a price target for the S&P500 at 5200, which just might be to low.
Thanks for stopping by and reading. Wishing All Good Investing. Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 27, 2024 17:11:29 GMT
Heads up!!! A noon check of the S&P 500 indicates it wants to fill the gap which was created this past Thursday morning. That could be a buying opportunity or it could be the beginning of a correction. It depends on the depth of the fill.
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Post by Karen on Feb 27, 2024 19:31:56 GMT
Heads up!!! A noon check of the S&P 500 indicates it wants to fill the gap which was created this past Thursday morning. That could be a buying opportunity or it could be the beginning of a correction. It depends on the depth of the fill. My husband would like to know if you would please be so kind as to share a little more details about what you are seeing? Perhaps quantify it by stating S&P values or ranges? Sorry, T/A is just about a foreign language to me, but my husband really appreciates your posts and insights. Usually, I read them to him and he tries to explain to me what you posted! |
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Post by anitya on Feb 27, 2024 20:24:17 GMT
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Post by gman57 on Feb 27, 2024 20:28:39 GMT
Heads up!!! A noon check of the S&P 500 indicates it wants to fill the gap which was created this past Thursday morning. That could be a buying opportunity or it could be the beginning of a correction. It depends on the depth of the fill. My husband would like to know if you would please be so kind as to share a little more details about what you are seeing? Perhaps quantify it by stating S&P values or ranges? Sorry, T/A is just about a foreign language to me, but my husband really appreciates your posts and insights. Usually, I read them to him and he tries to explain to me what you posted! Not the original author but... on 2/21 (wed) the sp500 closed about 4980 and on 2/22 (thurs) it opened at about 5040 so there is about a 60 point GAP UP (4980->5040) Often people say the market likes to fill its gaps. If that happens at some point it would go back down to 4980 and then continue on its merry way either up or down. He mentioned it depends on the depth of the fill. It only got down to about 5058 today so not much depth so far today. That's my guess as to the post viewpoint. It was just a heads up that if the market kept going down it could mean something. |
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 28, 2024 2:40:22 GMT
Heads up!!! A noon check of the S&P 500 indicates it wants to fill the gap which was created this past Thursday morning. That could be a buying opportunity or it could be the beginning of a correction. It depends on the depth of the fill. My husband would like to know if you would please be so kind as to share a little more details about what you are seeing? Perhaps quantify it by stating S&P values or ranges? Sorry, T/A is just about a foreign language to me, but my husband really appreciates your posts and insights. Usually, I read them to him and he tries to explain to me what you posted! Does your husband have a handicap of some sort? If so, please P M me. If not, I am sure he can sign on and pose his questions himself. |
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Post by Karen on Feb 28, 2024 11:27:11 GMT
My husband would like to know if you would please be so kind as to share a little more details about what you are seeing? Perhaps quantify it by stating S&P values or ranges? Sorry, T/A is just about a foreign language to me, but my husband really appreciates your posts and insights. Usually, I read them to him and he tries to explain to me what you posted! Does your husband have a handicap of some sort? If so, please P M me. If not, I am sure he can sign on and pose his questions himself. I'm not sure what to make of your response. Yes, he has two current handicaps, dementia and dyslexia. So no, we sadly restrict what he does with just about every daily activity including online activity. gman57 appears to have answered our question. |
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Post by oldskeet on Feb 28, 2024 12:32:09 GMT
Hi Karen. I am saddened to learn the health issues of your husband. Your sharing this changes the complexion of my feelings about you and explains the expressions found in your previous
post. May Grace be with you, your husband and family through managing through this no doubt difficult time period. Please know my thoughts will be with you and family. Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 28, 2024 13:35:09 GMT
Does your husband have a handicap of some sort? If so, please P M me. If not, I am sure he can sign on and pose his questions himself. I'm not sure what to make of your response. Yes, he has two current handicaps, dementia and dyslexia. So no, we sadly restrict what he does with just about every daily activity including online activity. gman57 appears to have answered our question. Thank You for your response. I have an appointment this morning that will keep me busy for the next 3 hours or so. When I return, I will post a more detailed and updated explanation of the current pattern the S&P 500 is developing. Hopefully that will help you and your husband to understand the current movement of the stock market. |
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Post by richardsok on Feb 28, 2024 16:32:27 GMT
I'm not sure what to make of your response. Yes, he has two current handicaps, dementia and dyslexia. So no, we sadly restrict what he does with just about every daily activity including online activity. gman57 appears to have answered our question. Thank You for your response. I have an appointment this morning that will keep me busy for the next 3 hours or so. When I return, I will post a more detailed and updated explanation of the current pattern the S&P 500 is developing. Hopefully that will help you and your husband to understand the current movement of the stock market. Harley - I believe people are at least as interested in your methodology as they are curious about your mkt outlook du jour. |
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 28, 2024 17:50:20 GMT
Thank You for your response. I have an appointment this morning that will keep me busy for the next 3 hours or so. When I return, I will post a more detailed and updated explanation of the current pattern the S&P 500 is developing. Hopefully that will help you and your husband to understand the current movement of the stock market. Harley - I believe people are at least as interested in your methodology as they are curious about your mkt outlook du jour. The S&P500 and other equity indexes have formed a pattern which is commonly called an Ascending Pennant or Wedge pattern. The ascending pattern is bullish as long as the price remains within its upper and lower trendlines. The direction of any sustained break out from the pattern is indicative of the future trend. The current pattern has recently bounced down from the upper trendline. The bump down was executed on above average trading volume, creating a line of resistance just above the prices current level. Captain Price has moved sideways for the past 2 days, reinforcing the line of resistance & moving the price closer to the Pennants line of support. Trading volume has diminished since the bump down and is another bearish sign. My opinion is that the price will make a bearish break out of the pattern in the next couple of days or early next week. That break [after it has been executed] might find support at 5000 or it could continue down to the 4800 level or to 4500 or so. Since the Nasdaq 100 has made a similar pattern, I have sold my leveraged equity position in TQQQ as of this morning. I remain invested in my income oriented CEFS. The above is my opinion and analysis and is only mine. The opinion is based on the below daily chart. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p21909272695&a=412512122&listNum=86 |
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Post by anitya on Feb 28, 2024 19:51:34 GMT
It will be instructive what SMID do during a period when SPY and QQQ take a breather / breakdown. E.g., relative performance. uncleharley, Any insights on interest rates e.g., $TNX? |
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 28, 2024 20:11:56 GMT
It will be instructive what SMID do during a period when SPY and QQQ take a breather / breakdown. E.g., relative performance. uncleharley , Any insights on interest rates e.g., $TNX? The weekly chart for $TNX has a bullish, Ascending Pennant on a Flagpole. The Ascending Pennant shows that the TNX could advance another 10 Basis points without a breakout from the pattern. If a bullish breakout should happen, the Flagpole would come into play for a projected advance in interest rates. An accepted method for doing a projection using this pattern is to assume the chart could advance the length of the flagpole. That would be about a 40 point advance from its current level. A bearish breakout should find support at 3%. The width or range of the Ascending pennant is about 12 points. The top of the trading range is about 52. Consequently, we could see a 10 point advance in the TNX without a break from the current advancing pattern. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p79762219507&a=412560547&listNum=86 |
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Post by yogibearbull on Feb 29, 2024 8:37:07 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +25.2% (above average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 57.30% (positive)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 65.60% (positive)
(Scale: oversold < 30-; 30 < negative < 50-; 50 < positive < 70-; overbought > 70)
Sentiments remain good & stable. Markets may digest gains since 10/2023.
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Post by Karen on Feb 29, 2024 11:54:17 GMT
Hi Karen. I am saddened to learn the health issues of your husband. Your sharing this changes the complexion of my feelings about you and explains the expressions found in your previous post. May Grace be with you, your husband and family through managing through this no doubt difficult time period. Please know my thoughts will be with you and family. Old_Skeet Thank you for your kind words. He had a long and highly successful career in the investment business. He sadly had to retire sooner than he wanted due to the onset of his mental decline. He felt I would need some ongoing assistance with handling our investment needs beyond our friends and his former associates. We found this forum around that time and I've tried to carry the load for us as his condition deteriorated faster than expected. I am sorry if I offended you or anyone else here over this time period. Life used to be so easy and fun. Now it is a daily struggle but we try to stay positive and think of how lucky we were to have had all we had before this unexpected, life-changing stuff all happened. |
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Post by racqueteer on Feb 29, 2024 13:30:41 GMT
When we're young, we don't appreciate how unfair life can be. I'm sorry that unfairness has now impacted your family.
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Post by mnfish on Feb 29, 2024 13:37:12 GMT
Ran across a quote from Munger courtesy of a Wells Advisors note -
"Bull markets go to people's heads. If your a duck on a pond, and it's rising due to a downpour, you start going up in the world. But you think it's you, not the pond.
Other tidbits -
in 2023, the top ten stocks accounted for 68.4% of the 24.2% gain of the SP500
current market breadth is 2nd only to 2007, and closely followed by 1999, 2020 and 2021. Those 4 periods were followed by double digit negative returns
value remains in Industrial, Health Care, Energy and Materials sectors
added - since the pandemic every single balance sheet, government, household and corporate, has expanded significantly. This is extremely rare and has magnified the amount of liquidity present in the economic engine. Excess capital has been searching for a home
I started a "Materials" watchlist on 02/09/2024 and here are the results as of today - I guess I should have actually bought them
AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS INC +5.64%
EASTMAN CHEMICAL +4.20%
EAGLE MATERIALS INC +3.39%
JOHNSON CTLS INTL PLC +8.20%
LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES +3.99%
SUMMIT MATERIALS INC CL A +12.32%
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Post by Karen on Feb 29, 2024 13:48:47 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 29, 2024 14:44:29 GMT
Well, there goes another reason to follow the market rather than anticipate it. The SPX gapped up at the open and went above my worrisome line of resistance to remain inside the Ascending Pennant pattern. I shoulda kept my TQQQ.
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Post by fred495 on Feb 29, 2024 16:44:35 GMT
Well, there goes another reason to follow the market rather than anticipate it. The SPX gapped up at the open and went above my worrisome line of resistance to remain inside the Ascending Pennant pattern. I shoulda kept my TQQQ. Always appreciate the transparency and timeliness of your postings. One of the main reasons I visit this site. Thank you, Fred |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Feb 29, 2024 19:21:53 GMT
Thanks Karen! It's an interesting read. Stay well, RM
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