Old Skeet's Barometer Report

[racqueteer]

Jan 8, 2024 21:57:05 GMT Capital said:

Good call my friend. Perhaps I need to listen to you more often.

Wait...  You haven't been listening to me?!  I'm shocked... shocked!  Who'd have thought that people here exercised good sense? 

[Capital]

Jan 9, 2024 15:21:02 GMT racqueteer said:

Jan 8, 2024 21:57:05 GMT Capital said:

Good call my friend. Perhaps I need to listen to you more often.

Wait...  You haven't been listening to me?!  I'm shocked... shocked!  Who'd have thought that people here exercised good sense? 

I have a problem with 2 other senses as well 

[anitya]

Moody's 2024 outlook for Asset Management

vimeo.com/898164045/e43625985e?share=copy&cid=es-snglsnd-16812


"Weak global economic growth, due mainly to high interest rates and tight monetary policy, is a primary factor of the continuing negative outlook for the sector. While equity markets have rallied recently, industry assets under management (AUM) have yet to recover their 2021 highs. Investors will remain cautious, resulting in a reduction in investment flows as they shift to lower risk classes such as money funds and bonds."

[yogibearbull]

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +24.4% (high)

%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 77.94% (overbought; topping out)

%Above 50-dMA for SP500 85.80% (overbought)

Expected (wholesale) PPI < CPI. SEC approved 11 spot-Bitcoin ETFs (strangely, non-Bitcoin cryptos rallied more on the news than Bitcoin that had runup already).

[uncleharley]

Most of the major stock indexes closed the day with bullish engulfing candles. I would feel more bullish if trading volume got to average.

[archer]

Bearish on my chart for $SPX is a declining PPO with rising price action. Plus we are testing recent and all time highs which is often a bit of a struggle. I'm looking for a reversing candle but as UH pointed out, we got just the opposite today.

On the bulls side we have a rising accumulation/distribution line, and a favorable $VIX which also had a nice candle today.

All in all for now, I'm not expecting a decisive or long lasting breakout above 4800 after today's CPI report possibly tempering expectations of the Fed.

[uncleharley]

Jan 11, 2024 23:01:46 GMT archer said:

Bearish on my chart for $SPX is a declining PPO with rising price action. Plus we are testing recent and all time highs which is often a bit of a struggle. I'm looking for a reversing candle but as UH pointed out, we got just the opposite today.

On the bulls side we have a rising accumulation/distribution line, and a favorable $VIX which also had a nice candle today.

All in all for now, I'm not expecting a decisive or long lasting breakout above 4800 after today's CPI report possibly tempering expectations of the Fed.

I am thinking the mid-east is a larger problem than inflation.  But, that is a thought, not a stat.  I'm all in also.

[archer]

Yes, the middle east could be a problem for the markets, although I've read Israel's market has gained nicely in the past months. Currently shipping is being affected with container prices going up 40% avoiding the Red sea. So problems are already in process. There's always a certain amount of global "not getting along well" going on, but it seems recently to be intensifying. Deglobalization will be expensive for us if we have to move in that direction.

[mnfish]

Interesting information on the so-called "pile of cash on the sidelines" from Ned Davis Research - 

 "Kalish thinks the popular argument that “cash on the sidelines” can be bullish for stocks sounds more like “propaganda” at this point, especially when looking at 40 years of historical data for the money-market industry"

"The NDR team found three meaningful declines in money-market fund data in the past four decades, with the biggest drop of 35.4%, or $1.4 trillion, unfolding a dozen years ago in the post-global financial crisis era."

"Other significant periods of declines for money-market assets were the 22.2% drop following the technology stock bubble bursting in the early 2000s and the 10.5% decrease in 2020 during the pandemic."

“Neither condition is present today,” Kalish wrote, especially with money-market funds kicking off 5% or more, and equities near record highs."

“There are reasons to be bullish equities and even credit as we have discussed in recent publications, but the pile of cash is a weak one,” Kalish said.


I didn't have much cash in 2000-01 or 2008-09 but did in 2020 and got some nice buys and I'm sitting on a wad of it now.

[anitya]

Jan 11, 2024 23:01:46 GMT archer said:

Bearish on my chart for $SPX is a declining PPO with rising price action. Plus we are testing recent and all time highs which is often a bit of a struggle. I'm looking for a reversing candle but as UH pointed out, we got just the opposite today.

On the bulls side we have a rising accumulation/distribution line, and a favorable $VIX which also had a nice candle today.

All in all for now, I'm not expecting a decisive or long lasting breakout above 4800 after today's CPI report possibly tempering expectations of the Fed.

archer, Right on!

pl share why you like PPO rather than MACD or some other trend oscillator.  I do not hear about MACD much in this forum but that is the first oscillator I learned about because Capecod uses it extensively - may be MACD works better for fixed income stuff. 

[archer]

anitya , Great question! MACD and PPO charts both default to the 12 day and 26 day moving average and will look identical for any given stock or fund.

MACD expresses the difference between the 2 moving averages as a price difference.
PPO expresses the difference as a percentage.

I think in terms of percentages because percentages compensate for the different dollar values of the stock being measured. Think of MACD vs PPO in measuring SPY vs $SPX. MACD will give a very different $ value for each whereas PPO will give very close to the same % difference between the 2 moving averages.

Honestly though, I don't get that detailed with it but rather just look at whether they are going up or down. For my purposes in most cases I could use either one.

Also I have breakfast with Tom Bowley 3 mornings a week and he uses PPO, so it helps to be looking at the same thing.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. For the weekending January 12th the S&P500 Index gained 87 points moving from 4697 to 4784 resulting in a 1.85% gain.  The yield on the US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 3.95%. For the past three weeks the barometer has scored the Index as overbought. However, this week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 78, overvalued as some of the barometer's data feeds have started to soften. In fact, Old_Skeet is pleasantly surprised that the price line moved upward. It seems, as some investors are selling, others are buying as replacement sales are driving prices higher in this uptick week.

Remember, although Congressional leaders have formulated a Federal Budget it has yet to be passed by vote. Thus the shutdown still looms. In addition, 4Q Earnings Reporting is now underway and should they disappoint this will no doubt pressure markets. It seems inflation, although improved, might still present concerns for the FOMC and delay anticipated rate cuts. Throw in the strong fourth quarter that stocks had puts their value at valuation levels that leave little room for disappointment.

With this, I favor value over growth. And, for sectors, I favor financials, industrials, utilities, consumer staples and healthcare for the most part of the year until we get past elections. For me, I am still bullish for the year and look for the fourth quarter to produce the best gains with my S&P500 Index target at the 5200 range.  After all, this is a Presidential election year and most times is good for stocks.

Thanks for stopping by and I wish all Good Investing.

[uncleharley]

The major stock indexes made mild gains on trading volume which was barely average. The exceptions were small caps and transports which both had mild losses on above average trading volume. I sold my leveraged equity position and am now holding the cash. My charts are still bullish and I have no reason to change my projection of 5800 SPX by years end. However, this is becoming boring. My guess is to stay the course and follow the plan.

[Karen]

Jan 13, 2024 13:46:19 GMT uncleharley said:

The major stock indexes made mild gains on trading volume which was barely average. The exceptions were small caps and transports which both had mild losses on above average trading volume. I sold my leveraged equity position and am now holding the cash. My charts are still bullish and I have no reason to change my projection of 5800 SPX by years end. However, this is becoming boring. My guess is to stay the course and follow the plan.

We're thinking it remains pretty much that way until the first Fed action/inaction.  You?

[mnfish]

Note from Wells Advisors on Jobs report and revisions-

December "jobs created" report beat estimates 216k vs 175k estimate
However, meaningful adjustments were made to Oct and Nov and showed 71k fewer jobs than initially reported
And, BLS reported that YTD 439k fewer jobs were added than what was initially reported
BLS also reported that many jobs added since middle of last year were part time
The Nov report showed the under-employment rate rose to 7.1% and avg workweek fell to 34.3 hours which more than offset the employment increase
Expect the economy to further slow from here and the market is not properly pricing in a noticeable slowdown in consumer spending
Stay defensive

[uncleharley]

Jan 13, 2024 13:50:28 GMT Karen said:

Jan 13, 2024 13:46:19 GMT uncleharley said:

The major stock indexes made mild gains on trading volume which was barely average. The exceptions were small caps and transports which both had mild losses on above average trading volume. I sold my leveraged equity position and am now holding the cash. My charts are still bullish and I have no reason to change my projection of 5800 SPX by years end. However, this is becoming boring. My guess is to stay the course and follow the plan.

We're thinking it remains pretty much that way until the first Fed action/inaction.  You?

Maybe....  My thought is that the next fed moves are baked into the cake.  When the Fed makes a move may be unknown at this time, but the direction seems to be obvious.  If tech is going to be the hot sector this year it needs to get started soon.  My personal fave in the tech sector is currently IBM, whose chart nearly mirrors the S&P 500.  It could break to a new high in a day or a week or a month or never.  A dramatic headline about some development in AI could be the trigger.  But when or what remains a mystery to me.  
EDIT;  IBMs next earnings report is scheduled for 1/24/24. 

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. Here is the update for the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy. A new leader has emerged that being EWJ with a track score of 18.51, Place goes to IJR with a score of 17.24 and Show goes to MDY with a score of 14.90. In comparison SPY crossed with a score of 13.50. Old_Skeet

[yogibearbull]

Nikkei225 is closing in on its all time high only ( ) after 34+ years! They finally have inflation there, but the BOJ is keeping monetary policy still easy, so yen is weak. Remember, Japanese pioneered in ZIRP, QE, etc, and seem addicted to all that stuff. So, while EWJ may be interesting, currency-hedged DXJ may be better for those who want to play - check the chart.
stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=EWJ&compare=DXJ&id=p36398737446

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. Today is MLK Holiday in the States and the markets are closed. With this, I thought I'd write a blurb on the Leadership Investment Strategy to keep interest in the board going today.

The strategy is designed for a special investment position (spiff) within a diversified portfolio. It's bogey being SPY. Thus to beat it's bogey one has to position money in better performing investment choices that are found in the strategy choices.

Usually, I hold one position coming from the lead pack and one coming from the field of choices that has good momentum and the outlook to become a member of the lead pack. These positions are held until they begin to falter and can no longer perform better than the bogey and a new selection is made.

The investment choices that I use within the strategy are CEF, EEM, EPP, EWJ, IEV, IJR, MDY, QQQ, SHV and SPY.

Each investment is listed in a spread sheet and scored based upon a performance score with win, place and show placements noted along with the performance of the bogey, SPY. Thus, to beat bogey money has to be kept in play in the investment choices that are (or are anticipated) to out perform bogey.

Thus, Old_Skeet's Leadership Investment Strategy came to be.

I hope this simple strategy example will stimulate you to develop something of your own.

Thanks for stopping by.

Old_Skeet

[yogibearbull]

While the US markets will be closed for MLK Day, there are US futures and the overseas markets.

US Futures: Stocks flat, bonds down (prices), energy down (natural gas tanking - hard to understand in -12 degF Chicago), precious metals up, Dr Copper up, Bitcoin down/flat (depends on the last value used, but overall, a huge selloff since historic 1/11/24).

Asia - mixed

Europe - down

www.cmegroup.com/
www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

[fishingrod]

www.ft.com/content/e9ef4346-0adf-40fa-bdae-a33690e80244

See if you can get it from Financial times.

Low returns.

[Chahta]

Copy and paste of the article:

Norway’s $1.5 trillion sovereign wealth fund is bracing for lackluster performance from the markets in the years to come as inflationary pressures are likely to remain.

“We are not very optimistic when it comes to returns,” Chief Executive Officer Nicolai Tangen said in an interview on Bloomberg TV at the World Economic Forum in Davos.



“There is more underlying inflationary pressure and I think it’s going to stay there for longer,” he said. “I do think the international central banks will be very, very careful in cutting rates too quickly because they were too slow in putting them up.”



Created in the 1990s to invest Norway’s oil and gas revenues abroad, the fund — also known as Norges Bank Investment Management — is the world’s biggest single owner of equities. NBIM today holds stakes in over 9,000 companies, or about 1.5% of all shares in the world’s listed companies, as well as assets in fixed income, real estate and renewable infrastructure. That gives the fund a unique view on the health of the markets.



“We’ve got some underlying inflationary pressures, we’ve got wages demand really high in a lot of countries, and that should lead to some spiraling of inflation going forward,” Tangen said Monday. “Then we have some climate effects, which are negative on pricing, you have geopolitics, you have trade routes, many things — it’s just not a very happy cocktail.”



Speaking earlier on Monday, BlackRock Inc. Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said slowing consumer-price growth is giving financial markets a false sense of security and that inflation could turn out to be stickier than anticipated. Inflation is also likely to stop the European Central Bank from lowering interest rates this year, according to Governing Council member Robert Holzmann.



Read More: BlackRock’s Hildebrand Says Fed Rate Cut Bets Too Optimistic



The fast pace at which central banks jacked up rates had an effect on the economy, with especially negative implications for indebted companies and the real estate market, Tangen said, adding that most of the “big jump in the cost of capital” is probably over and “from here it’s probably going to normalize a bit going forward,” Tangen said.



“Money is not free anymore and I don’t think it will be for a long period of time,” he said.



Since taking over in 2020, Tangen has urged his traders to think more contrarian and take advantage of the long-term nature of the fund. He has also pushed for the fund to be a more active shareholder, with a stronger stance on ESG issues and corporate governance.



The fund lost $34 billion in the third quarter after financial markets were dented by global growth concerns. That came after a rebound in technology stocks yielded a $143 billion return in the first half of 2023. The investor, which largely tracks a benchmark index based on a framework handed down by parliament, is due to release key figures for the full year on Jan. 30.



Read More: Norway’s Wealth Fund Posts Losses Across All Asset Classes



He also cautioned that known risks are less worrisome than the unexpected factors.



“You know what really derails things is the things we never thought about: the financial crisis, an earthquake, Covid, those types of situations,” Tangen said. “That’s what’s going to derail it and we don’t know what the joker for 2024 is going to be but for sure it’s going to be something that none of us have thought about.”

[yogibearbull]

Canadian BNN www.bnnbloomberg.ca/norway-wealth-fund-ceo-tangen-warns-on-low-returns-ahead-1.2022040

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. I am going to add a feature to the Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy that I believe will be helpful. To indicate if the listed etf is reflecting upward movement and strength a + sign will follow the ticker symbol. And, to reflect downward movement and weakness a - sign will follow the ticker symbol.

For the last reporting would read for the Win EWJ with a track score of 18.51+, Place with a score of IJR 17.24- and Show with a score of MDY 14.90-. In comparison, bogey SPY crossed with a score of 13.50+. Thus for the reporting EWJ and SPY had positive momentum and IJR and MDY were starting to falter even though for the period they placed ahead of SPY with their score.

I hope this additional information will be helpful going forward.

It easy for me to see asset performance movement in the spreadsheet but not so much in the postings of the ETFs that lead unless you look back in the stack to see their numbers in the previous post.

[fritzo489]

oldskeet, Nice idea OS, but I'm thinking a % number up or down would be of more value. Maybe I'm off base , just saying. Thank you for your input. It's been rather cold here, so maybe I have frost bite !

[oldskeet]

Hi fritzo489, This follows a Leadership Strategy that I posted years ago on the MFO board. Perhaps, you remember? I will give some thought to your suggestion but what concerns me in doing so would lead to hop-scotch investing and frequent trading. Perhaps, you should give some thought in bringing your concept of a leadership strategy and posting it here on the board. Take care and thanks for making comment.

[uncleharley]

If I understand what you mean by hopscotch, momentum is probably the indicator to use.

[fritzo489]

oldskeet,  I have no concept strategy to share, sorry to say. I do enjoy reading

  your comments.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. The Leadership Strategy has a capital preservation feature and if the markets are down today as the futures reflect, that they might be, it looks like SHV will become a near term 30 day member of the lead pack. Should this occur then the strategy goes to an all cash position until the investment climate improves. I will make a post this evening should this happen.

[uncleharley]

Jan 17, 2024 12:43:46 GMT oldskeet said:

Hi guys. The Leadership Strategy has a capital preservation feature and if the markets are down today as the futures reflect, that they might be, it looks like SHV will become a near term 30 day member of the lead pack. Should this occur then the strategy goes to an all cash position until the investment climate improves. I will make a post this evening should this happen.

FWIW; Momentum began to drop over the holidays when the trading volume tapered off.  Trading volume has now returned to about average on my daily charts, but the volume on the weekly charts is still lagging.  This quiet time we have been enjoying since the holidays may end as trading volume returns to normal.  The problem is that it is difficult to determine if prices will regain their upward trend or will they collapse.  My charts indicate that the indexes will resume their advance after the current correction has run its course, but that is not chiseled in stone at this time.