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Post by oldskeet on Dec 29, 2023 8:45:02 GMT
Hi guys. For Thursday December 28th the Big Index closed up 1 point at 4783 putting it 13 points from it's all time high of 4796. The US10YrT closed with a yield of 3.84 with the ttm earnings yield for the Big Index in the same range at 3.8% as well. The Barometer closed the day with a reading of 84, overbought.
2024 is a Presidential Election year and stocks generally do well in these years. However, I am going conservative on my forward estimate for the Index with a year end target of 5200 for about an 8% gain with most of it coming after the November election.
For the 1Q2024 I am thinking that stocks meet the headwinds of disappointing 4Q2023 earnings and grid lock in Washington as Congress deals with formulating and funding the 2024 Budget as the 2nd CR expires.
For me, my outlook and plan is to buy stock market pullbacks in my belief the S&P500 Index will make 5200 sometimes in 2024 and close the year in this range as well. Most likely most of my buys will be in my equity income sleeves (domestic & global) with some going to small caps with the thought the FOMC will reduce interest rates. The softening US Dollar should help my foreign fund holdings including my commodity strategy and emerging market funds. It is for certain, I am not looking for another large gain in the Big Index that we had in 2023 but a decent year for stocks in 2024. Thus, I am a Bull for 2024.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Wishing All Good Investing and a Properous New Year!
I am, Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 29, 2023 21:03:48 GMT
The weekly charts for the major domestic stock indexes remain bullish with those verified cup w handle patterns. The light trading volume of the past couple of weeks can better be attributed to the holidays than to any kind of exhaustion by stock traders. I remain bullish on equities with a target of 5800 by years end for the S&P500.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 30, 2023 6:50:25 GMT
Hi guys. This is the final report for 2023. For the year the S&P500 Index gained 930 points moving from a starting reading of 3840 to close the year at 4770. This resulted in a 24.2% gain. The year ending ttm P/E Ratio is 26.35. The earnings yield computes to 3.80%. The dividend yield is 1.45%. In comparison, the US10YrT closed at a yield of 3.87%. The Barometer closed with a reading of 83, overbought.
In my Win, Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy, the win goes to IJR with a track score of 27.84 ... Place goes to EPP with a score of 20.46 ... and, Show goes to QQQ with a score of 20.18. MDY came in with a score of 20.16. IEV had a score of 16.63. SPY has a score of 16.61. EEM's score was 11.60. CEF had a score of 9.79. And, SHV crossed with a score of 1.93. I track this as I am invested in all the assets that these etf's represent. And, should I choose to engage in a special investment position (spiff) then I know where the faster moving currents are.
Thanks for stopping by.
Wishing All Good Inverting and a most Properous New Year!
Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 2, 2024 21:23:41 GMT
That was a strong close to a rough day. Trading volume is coming back and should give us clearer signals than we got during the holidays.
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Post by anitya on Jan 3, 2024 8:14:53 GMT
Santa Clause rally so far is a cumulative -0.09%.
Day 1: +0.17%
Day 2: +0.41%
Day 3: +0.14%
Day 4: +0.04%
Day 5: -0.28%
Day 6: -0.57%
Tomorrow, the S&P 500 better be at least 0.1% to have a positive 2023-24 Santa Clause rally.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 3, 2024 17:15:37 GMT
I knew the ride to 5800 would be bumpy, but I did not expect the bumps to begin so soon. I see support at 4550 SPX or so.
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 81
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Post by mani on Jan 3, 2024 18:25:07 GMT
How do people define Santa Claus rally? For me it's basically the Thanksgiving to new year period. Is it more restrictive?
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Post by Karen on Jan 3, 2024 19:07:28 GMT
How do people define Santa Claus rally? For me it's basically the Thanksgiving to new year period. Is it more restrictive? |
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Post by anitya on Jan 3, 2024 19:41:48 GMT
How do people define Santa Claus rally? For me it's basically the Thanksgiving to new year period. Is it more restrictive? Because Christmas could fall on any day of the week, the Wall Street convention has settled on last five trading days of a year and the first two trading days of the following year. You can glean this from my post yesterday in this thread. |
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Post by Karen on Jan 3, 2024 20:32:18 GMT
www.wallstreetmojo.com/santa-claus-rally/#Santa-Claus-Rally-Explained-ExcerptSanta Claus Rally Explained
Santa Claus rally refers to an event that enables the market to rise from the last week of December to the first two business days of January. Therefore, the Santa Claus rally dates for approximately a week or more. However, there is no guarantee for the number of days this rally might last.The first mention of the Santa Claus rally dates back to the 1970s by author Yale Hirsch. In the book “The Stock Trader’s Almanac,” Hirsch described the word in 1972. Like Santa Claus arrives during Christmas and delivers gifts, similar events occur in the equity market. Hence, the equity traders witness a sudden surge in stock prices, creating a bullish position. Thus, investors tend to invest more during this session. Plus, public firms receive additional capital and positive sentiments for their stocks.------------------------------jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/672749434165149696/yale-hirschs-santa-claus-rally-januaryExcerpt:As defined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is the propensity for the S&P 500 to rally the last five trading days of December and the first two of January an average of 1.3% since 1950.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 4, 2024 11:41:46 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +25.1% (high again)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 82.75% (overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 91.60% (overbought)
An unexpected strength in dollar may be hurting everything else.
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Post by Capital on Jan 4, 2024 13:30:47 GMT
How do people define Santa Claus rally? For me it's basically the Thanksgiving to new year period. Is it more restrictive? has used the correct definition per the book. Normally a rise as we saw this year before Christmas is referred to an early Santa Clause rally. I saw a post by uncleharley on another thread about the week between Christmas and New Years where he was referring to the light volume of the week. Most years that I can remember that week's volume numbers were quite light. It's difficult to get a real read on the market in such light volume IMHO. |
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Post by fritzo489 on Jan 4, 2024 13:53:37 GMT
oldskeet Thank you for your time & effort for posting, Old Skeet's Barometer Report.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 4, 2024 14:01:31 GMT
For those who are trying to time this market I would like to add that I closed out another losing trade yesterday. That makes 2 in a row. Momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX have turned down on most major stock indexes and the 5 yr treasury rate closed yesterday with a bearish engulfing candle, also not a good sign. Many pundits are worried about shipping costs rising as a result of terrorist attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Those attacks have not yet caused the Baltic Dry index to rise, but it has stopped falling. I have no reason to change my projection of the S&P going to 5800 or so by years end, but my current thought is to use the proceeds of my latest losing trade to fund my annual IRA withdrawal and find a hidey hole to duck into.
EDIT: The DJT appears to be in a correction mode, it might begin to consolidate around 15300.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 4, 2024 15:57:40 GMT
There are several yearend & New Year indicators. (Son) Jeff Hirsch looks at them at TwitterLINK. "Jeffrey A. Hirsch @almanactrader Santa Fails to Call, But Trifecta 2 Out of 3 Ain’t Bad Santa a no show. Watch for up 1st 5 Days & January Barometer, 2nd & 3rd legs of Jan Indicator Trifecta. 3x since 1950 SCR was down & FFD & JB up. 2 out of 3 years up + 20%, 1994 -1.5%, 14.8% avg gain on all 3....." |
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 4, 2024 21:49:12 GMT
Todays close puts the S&P 500 and the D J Transports definitely in a corrective mode. My projection of a rise in the S&P to 5800 by years end is still in play, but a drop thru 4550 would negate the call. Both the S&P and the Transport indexes dropped on strong trading volume in the closing minutes of the day. That is a bad omen and having the transports in correction while the price of fuel is going down is another bad sign for any future gains. I have reduced my positions in equities, and I will probably not reinvest the proceeds.
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 6, 2024 3:35:26 GMT
Hi guys. For the week ending January 5th the S&P500 Index gave back 73 points moving from 4770 to 4697 for a decline of 1.53%. The US10YrT gained 17 basis points with a week ending yield of 4.04%. The Barometer moved from a reading of 83 to 81, and remains overbought. For the Win Place and Show Leadership Investment Strategy IJR came in with a track score of 20.21 for the win, EPP took second place with a score of 17.34 and Show went to MDY with a score of 15.78. In comparison to SPY had a score of 13.58.
Next Friday earnings season starts and in about another week the 2nd CR starts to expire as headwinds for the Markets start to build. For me, it is way to early to even give much thought to putting any new cash to work. Thus, I sit for now and watch, awaiting a better investment climate.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
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Post by anitya on Jan 6, 2024 3:42:43 GMT
Israel stock market is back to near its 52 week high.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 6, 2024 13:00:07 GMT
The weekly chart for the S&P 500 indicates that it is in a correction. The correction is being executed on rather light trading volume implying the correction will not last very long. The chart shows strong support comes in at the 4450/4500 level. We should resume a bullish stock market advance from there. Earnings reports will probably dictate the strength or weakness of that advance. Meanwhile it is important to remain focused on ones portfolio and minimize the effects of distractions such as geopolitical events.
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 6, 2024 13:49:43 GMT
Just from a novice's pov... With low volume, at a point with some support, and with RSI for tech 50-ish right here, we may very well bounce short term at least. I'm thinking that we'd need bad news to drop much further. Thoughts?
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Post by Capital on Jan 6, 2024 14:37:47 GMT
Just from a novice's pov... With low volume, at a point with some support, and with RSI for tech 50-ish right here, we may very well bounce short term at least. I'm thinking that we'd need bad news to drop much further. Thoughts? We got some bumps in the road ahead. The first on my radar is the Federal Budget/Spending/Funding (or whatever the heck they want to call this one) that Congress is building at warp speed. You might want to put some more padding in your seat for this one because I think it's going to be a big one. Once we get by that one, if we do get by that one, watch for the unhappiness that I think will be caused when the FED does not have a March 2024 rate cut. Just remember if things get really good, economic or market wise, the Government can find perfect solution for that. |
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 6, 2024 14:41:19 GMT
Hi racqueteer , I am looking for a lower print for the S&P500 as we had a 4Q strong run and stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. 4Q earnings reporting starts next week. This will set the stage for near term stock performance. I am thinking that the chances for a lower print are greater than an upper move. I would not be surprised to see a print in the 4500 range, perhaps lower. I am thinking that Congress will influence stock prices as well as the 2nd CR expires and a possible Government shutdown looms with no 2024 budget and its funding being passed any time soon. Then there is the FOMC with the timing of rate cuts. I think we go lower before we see much of an upturn most likely after the November election. |
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 6, 2024 14:59:10 GMT
So the thinking is that we'll probably sink to major support at 4500 at some point and not likely advance from our initial highs at the beginning of the year. Certainly a likely outcome (if the news is poor; as expected). I'm thinking maybe a little bounce early this week (which could probably be sold if you missed the chance previously - that's me). While I was expecting a pullback, I wasn't expecting it immediately!
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 6, 2024 15:23:43 GMT
Iam thinking that coming with pullbacks will be some throwback rallys. I am not looking for any meaningful upside to after the November election. For me, I will engage some spiffs when felt warranted. If the FOMC cuts early or to often, for me, conveys a concern. It's a tough environmement to make much of any kind of a call. Again, my thoughts are that we move higher after the November election possibly reaching 5200 or higher for the S&P500 before year end.
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 6, 2024 17:04:40 GMT
If the FOMC cuts early or to often, for me, conveys a concern. Agree. I'm not seeing any reason for the Fed to be doing anything near term. Nor any reason for four, let alone five rate cuts this year (which is what I think has been priced in)! Modest and late in the year seems more reasonable to me. In an election year, though? Who knows |
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Post by Capital on Jan 6, 2024 21:26:15 GMT
If the FOMC cuts early or to often, for me, conveys a concern. Agree. I'm not seeing any reason for the Fed to be doing anything near term. Nor any reason for four, let alone five rate cuts this year (which is what I think has been priced in)! Modest and late in the year seems more reasonable to me. In an election year, though? Who knows I agree as well. I personally think 3 rate cuts later in the year will be the top. Being an election year does throw in a bit more unknown into the picture. As for "Who knows" -- I ain't the one who knows. For all I knows this market could decide to just climb that ole Wall of Worry and surprise us all. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 7, 2024 0:54:20 GMT
Observations for YTD.
1) Value did much better...COWZ -0.35...SPY -1.5...QQQ -3.5%
2) rates went up = many bond funds went down, especially higher-rated funds DODIX lost -1.1%. PIMIX held by many lost -0.75. The bond funds I like lost a lot less or made money.
3) What/When will be the Fed next move can't be predicted. Just listen very carefully to what the Fed actually says and not the analysts.
4) My ST+LT T/A indicators that I use signaled a sell for SPY on January 3rd, but nothing for most bond funds I follow.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 8, 2024 17:41:16 GMT
Based on this mornings trading activity, the QQQs are back on track for a run to the 480/500 range.
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Post by Capital on Jan 8, 2024 21:57:05 GMT
So the thinking is that we'll probably sink to major support at 4500 at some point and not likely advance from our initial highs at the beginning of the year. Certainly a likely outcome (if the news is poor; as expected). I'm thinking maybe a little bounce early this week (which could probably be sold if you missed the chance previously - that's me). While I was expecting a pullback, I wasn't expecting it immediately! , Looks like you got your bounce - congrats. As you said there was no expectation that it would be immediate - it took 2 whole days to get here  Like I said in my later post == don't ask me where the market is going. Good call my friend. Perhaps I need to listen to you more often. Have a nice day, Capital |
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 8, 2024 22:48:09 GMT
So the thinking is that we'll probably sink to major support at 4500 at some point and not likely advance from our initial highs at the beginning of the year. Certainly a likely outcome (if the news is poor; as expected). I'm thinking maybe a little bounce early this week (which could probably be sold if you missed the chance previously - that's me). While I was expecting a pullback, I wasn't expecting it immediately! , Looks like you got your bounce - congrats. As you said there was no expectation that it would be immediate - it took 2 whole days to get here Like I said in my later post == don't ask me where the market is going. Good call my friend. Perhaps I need to listen to you more often. Have a nice day, Capital 4500? Attachments:
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