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Post by Karen on Jan 17, 2024 14:29:29 GMT
Hi guys. The Leadership Strategy has a capital preservation feature and if the markets are down today as the futures reflect, that they might be, it looks like SHV will become a near term 30 day member of the lead pack. Should this occur then the strategy goes to an all cash position until the investment climate improves. I will make a post this evening should this happen. FWIW; Momentum began to drop over the holidays when the trading volume tapered off. Trading volume has now returned to about average on my daily charts, but the volume on the weekly charts is still lagging. This quiet time we have been enjoying since the holidays may end as trading volume returns to normal. The problem is that it is difficult to determine if prices will regain their upward trend or will they collapse. My charts indicate that the indexes will resume their advance after the current correction has run its course, but that is not chiseled in stone at this time. On your statement of "the current correction has run its course," what exactly do you mean by that? Unless my eyesight is deceiving me and/or my memory is failing me more than usual at this age, there has been no recent or current price correction to the S&P. www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPXAre you referring to a time correction? Or are you anticipating a price drop of 10%? |
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 17, 2024 17:16:23 GMT
FWIW; Momentum began to drop over the holidays when the trading volume tapered off. Trading volume has now returned to about average on my daily charts, but the volume on the weekly charts is still lagging. This quiet time we have been enjoying since the holidays may end as trading volume returns to normal. The problem is that it is difficult to determine if prices will regain their upward trend or will they collapse. My charts indicate that the indexes will resume their advance after the current correction has run its course, but that is not chiseled in stone at this time. On your statement of "the current correction has run its course," what exactly do you mean by that? Unless my eyesight is deceiving me and/or my memory is failing me more than usual at this age, there has been no recent or current price correction to the S&P. www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPXAre you referring to a time correction? Or are you anticipating a price drop of 10%? It is possible that your eyesight or material you are looking at is deceiving you or your interpretation is different from mine. The daily chart for the S&P 500 clearly indicates that the price has been flat for the past month or so. This has corrected an overbought condition as indicated by the RSI and MACD indicators. That correction is still a work in progress. We will know more about how much and how long the correction will last when it is complete. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p21909272695&a=412512122&listNum=86 |
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Post by Karen on Jan 17, 2024 18:52:05 GMT
On your statement of "the current correction has run its course," what exactly do you mean by that? Unless my eyesight is deceiving me and/or my memory is failing me more than usual at this age, there has been no recent or current price correction to the S&P. www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPXAre you referring to a time correction? Or are you anticipating a price drop of 10%? It is possible that your eyesight or material you are looking at is deceiving you or your interpretation is different from mine. The daily chart for the S&P 500 clearly indicates that the price has been flat for the past month or so. This has corrected an overbought condition as indicated by the RSI and MACD indicators. That correction is still a work in progress. We will know more about how much and how long the correction will last when it is complete. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p21909272695&a=412512122&listNum=86Oh, so you are talking about a correction of the S&P being overbought. Perhaps a time correction? I guess we're used to T/A's usually using the "C" word in relation to a price drop of 10+% or more, or sometimes, perhaps as you've done, used it to point up a time correction that could result in a price correction? Sorry if this amounts to a word salad of sorts. We think we understand you now but any further comments would be appreciated. |
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 18, 2024 0:26:04 GMT
Hi guys. As of market close today the only etf that has outperformed SHV year to date is EWJ. Once SHV, a cash proxy, moves from the bottom of the field to it's top three based upon near term performance this is a built in signal to move any open spiff positions within the strategy to cash to preserve principal. I was ahead of doing this back in December when I closed out my smid/cap spiff based upon t/a. Now, the strategy has confirmed that this December move was indeed the correct move.
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Post by mnfish on Jan 18, 2024 11:30:13 GMT
Wealth Giant Pursues Goldman Sachs, KPMG and Others Over Silicon Valley Bank’s Collapse The suit said the bank’s board, its auditor KPMG, and four investment banks that helped it raise money—Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and Morgan Stanley—all “utterly failed in their role as gatekeepers” and “must be held to account for the harm they caused to investors.” “We need to make sure financial markets have the integrity that is necessary to work in a proper way,” Norges CEO Nicolai Tangen said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. “There are fewer and fewer active investors who are participating in the process of keeping this integrity alive.” |
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 18, 2024 12:09:53 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +13.6% (above average only)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 61.85% (positive only)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 72.60% (overbought still)
US election primaries started. WEF 2024, Davos is Jan 15-19.
Sentiments are deteriorating rapidly, although they remain positive.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 18, 2024 21:33:01 GMT
On a bullish note, the Tech sector ETF, XLK made a new all time high today.
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Post by anitya on Jan 19, 2024 3:25:33 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 19, 2024 14:23:07 GMT
The futures chart indicates that the S&P 500 might jump to a new high at the open.
EDIT; Oh well, SPX did not make a new high, but NDX did and SPX is working on it.
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Post by chang on Jan 19, 2024 19:43:51 GMT
On a bullish note, the Tech sector ETF, XLK made a new all time high today. Holy moley, that's a helluva chart: finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK?p=XLK&.tsrc=fin-srch (click "Max"). Up another 2% today. I couldn't bring myself to invest in a chart like that. But I do hold a big position in a LCG fund, and I'm more likely to buy more than to sell. But with $6 trillion in cash on the sidelines, and technology (rightly) soooo alluring, who knows how high it can go? |
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 19, 2024 20:15:04 GMT
On a bullish note, the Tech sector ETF, XLK made a new all time high today. Holy moley, that's a helluva chart: finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK?p=XLK&.tsrc=fin-srch (click "Max"). Up another 2% today. I couldn't bring myself to invest in a chart like that. But I do hold a big position in a LCG fund, and I'm more likely to buy more than to sell. But with $6 trillion in cash on the sidelines, and technology (rightly) soooo alluring, who knows how high it can go? The finance sector as represented by XLF is getting on board today. The SPX is on track for a new closing high and the NDX will probably have another closing high in 45 minutes or so. That 6 Trillion may be shrinking a bit. |
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Post by howaya on Jan 19, 2024 20:23:47 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 19, 2024 20:47:43 GMT
On intraday basis, the old 1/4/22 record of SP500 4,818.62 is history. Now, let us see how it closes - looks strong now just 15 min before the close. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spxEdit/Add. SP500 close 4,839.81. |
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Post by Capital on Jan 19, 2024 21:02:21 GMT
On intraday basis, the old 1/4/22 record of SP500 4,818.62 is history. Now, let us see how it closes - looks strong now just 15 min before the close. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx4,839.32 close |
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 19, 2024 21:15:27 GMT
The S&P 500, the DJI, and the Nasdaq Composite all closed at new all time highs. The S&P and DJI had above average daily volume. The finance Sector and Tech sectors appear to be leading sectors while the small caps and mid caps are lagging the broader market a bit. At 1st glance, to me it looks like a normal rally that should have legs.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 19, 2024 22:54:57 GMT
The S&P 500, the DJI, and the Nasdaq Composite all closed at new all time highs. The S&P and DJI had above average daily volume. The finance Sector and Tech sectors appear to be leading sectors while the small caps and mid caps are lagging the broader market a bit. At 1st glance, to me it looks like a normal rally that should have legs. Yea, but also shows why I have not added to any small caps since mid December. Don't fight the tape. R48 |
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Post by archer on Jan 20, 2024 0:57:14 GMT
On a bullish note, the Tech sector ETF, XLK made a new all time high today. I did some looking into QQQ, which is overweight in tech vs SPY and see that while there is at times defensive rotation that outperforms QQQ, most of the time they are also going down, but just not as much. XLE was the only sector that did well in 2022, and IIRC (its been a good 1/2 hour ago LOL) no sector was spared in 2020, nor in 2008. When tech isn't doing well it's usually time to throw in the towel. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 20, 2024 1:07:13 GMT
I suspect bulk of the market action today is options expiration. Those bets that were bearish got pummeled.
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 20, 2024 9:16:59 GMT
Hi guys. This week certainly has given us a mixed bag of tricks and a treat as well. During the week SHV a cash proxy in the barometer moved into the lead pack and during the following two days the S&P500 Index comes to life and makes a new high. Reaching this new high was due in good part to XLK, XLC & XLV outsized performance year to date of 4.0%, 2.99% & 2.26% respectively. In comparison, SPY is up 1.50%. With this, stock valuations are for the most part extended. The three best performing efs in the strategy year to date are QQQ, EWJ and SPY. For the Win, QQQ had a track score of 20.29. Show, EWJ crossed with a score of 19.87 and SPY placed with a score of 15.19. Due to extended stock valuations Old_Skeet has no spiff engaged at this time. With the S&P500 Index closing at a new high of 4840 for a 70 point (1.5%) gain and thd yield on the US10YrT at 4.15% gaining 28 basis points (7.24%) leaves, from my view, little room for earnings to disappoint as we move through earning season without dinging stocks. Therefore, I now believe there is more downside risk for stocks than upside. This is supported by the softening barometer readings. Thus far this year the barometer has moved from a high reading of 83 down to a reading of 74. This indicates to me stocks will have to pullback in valuation or earnings will have to catch up to stock valuations. It will be interesting to watch and discover this outcome. I am thinking stocks pullback in view of the headwinds they face.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 20, 2024 17:51:32 GMT
The biggest problem with valuation is the fact it's relative + it can be off. Something can be over/under value (QQQ/EEM) for months-years. Overvalue can make 20% more, then go down 10% and continue up again. If you trimmed it because it's overvalued, you missed performance. On the other hand, if you purchased 10 years ago EM=great value, it was a mistake.
Prof Shiller created PE10(P/E over 10 years) which supposed to predict performance based on valuation better than PE
On 05/2012 (article)
Question: You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
FD: reality, the SP500 made 13.6% in the next 10 years (04/31/2012-04/31/2022). Let's deduct the inflation and make it 11%. It is much better than countries with lower PE10 such as Emerging markets (link)
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 20, 2024 18:45:14 GMT
FSPTX Fido Select Technology is my largest holding and for my youngest daughter in her IRA, it is 85% of her portfolio, due primarily growth. I would post a fsptx chart but it would run off the top of the page, upward!
Anyway at end of 2023 my daughter and I agreed to continue to hold her full 85% and not sell any for next eight years, her early retirement date at about age 58. So far so good. This will allow full capture of any AI fundamental boosts.
But if anyone can see a major flaw in FSPTX (other than the typical overpriced) please shout out. I didn't marry the fund, but have owned since fund inception decades ago...feels like "married."
R48
Edit to add: BTW top 10 of fsptx holdings represent 75% of assets. Very concentrated.
Holdings
Microsoft Corp 20.03% Apr 30, 2015 2,388,605,444 1.01% Increase 73.10 35.71
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Apple Inc 16.60 Feb 28, 2002 1,980,029,302 0.00 42.32 29.24
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NVIDIA Corp 13.39 Jul 31, 2016 1,596,567,379 1.85% Increase 254.95 30.12
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NXP Semiconductors NV 4.18 May 31, 2019 498,388,258 0.00 34.80 14.79
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Marvell Technology Inc 4.13 Dec 31, 2014 492,523,572 0.00 84.91 35.34
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ServiceNow Inc 3.77 Jul 31, 2022 449,364,736 7.14% Increase 74.85 59.17
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ON Semiconductor Corp 3.57 Jul 31, 2020 425,650,862 5.98% Increase 16.35 15.27
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Salesforce Inc 3.56 Aug 31, 2006 424,489,789 0.00 91.84 29.41
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Cisco Systems Inc 3.51 Jan 31, 2022 418,224,442 6.17% Increase 13.71 13.21
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Okta Inc Class A
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Post by archer on Jan 20, 2024 22:37:45 GMT
With AI becoming a big player in the equity markets, any ideas as to what industry it will fall under? Or perhaps it will given a new industry to itself? I don't believe it currently has an industry designation.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 21, 2024 4:01:27 GMT
With AI becoming a big player in the equity markets, any ideas as to what industry it will fall under? Or perhaps it will given a new industry to itself? I don't believe it currently has an industry designation. Easy, high tech, especially MSFT would be a leader. The current biggest high tech companies also have the cash to buy others and/or invest and partner with them or crush the competition. |
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Post by archer on Jan 21, 2024 5:33:06 GMT
With AI becoming a big player in the equity markets, any ideas as to what industry it will fall under? Or perhaps it will given a new industry to itself? I don't believe it currently has an industry designation. Easy, high tech, especially MSFT would be a leader. The current biggest high tech companies also have the cash to buy others and/or invest and partner with them or crush the competition. Sharpcharts lists 8 industries under the tech sector. semis, software, computer services, etc. I thought that was all the official ones. Then I did a google search and found 72 others! It looks like the number of industries aren't as widely accepted as a standard. "high tech" wasn't part of the 72, so I guess there are at least 73.  |
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Post by racqueteer on Jan 21, 2024 12:35:15 GMT
Shouldn't "bleading edge" be a category?  |
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 21, 2024 12:54:17 GMT
Term "Artificial Intelligence" goes back to at least 1950s. It's clearly within the category of software. It has gone through several boom/bust (or, hype/bust) cycles already. Even software emerged as a formal discipline only in 1960s. What is new is sometimes called Generative AI. My guess is that for now AI (old & new) will just be with software.
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 21, 2024 16:06:19 GMT
Easy, high tech, especially MSFT would be a leader. The current biggest high tech companies also have the cash to buy others and/or invest and partner with them or crush the competition. Sharpcharts lists 8 industries under the tech sector. semis, software, computer services, etc. I thought that was all the official ones. Then I did a google search and found 72 others! It looks like the number of industries aren't as widely accepted as a standard. "high tech" wasn't part of the 72, so I guess there are at least 73. Your question reminds me the time when I was looking for a job as an IT developer for several decades. This industry uses lots of making up stuff, messaging the truth, and calling the same process/design with new names. Stupid example: decades ago we called the clients --> users (why not just clients?). Someone "clever" (BS) started calling them end-users...wow, it stuck. I had to use end-users in my next interviews. When I used to hire developers and someone would constantly used this BS, it was a red flag for me. So, what is AI? another story to increase the price first and hope to make money in the future. In general, I prefer to own a wide range funds. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 23, 2024 13:43:26 GMT
Term "Artificial Intelligence" goes back to at least 1950s. It's clearly within the category of software. It has gone through several boom/bust (or, hype/bust) cycles already. Even software emerged as a formal discipline only in 1960s. What is new is sometimes called Generative AI. My guess is that for now AI (old & new) will just be with software. For investing purposes, the following daily article from Reuters implies we should just call it tech and buy; www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202401230704RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN3470U8-OUSBS_1 |
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Post by archer on Jan 24, 2024 23:51:10 GMT
I know seasonality doesn't carry a lot of weight in TA, but any indicator that gives an extreme signal is worthy of a 2nd look. In the past 5 years QQQ has not a February that ended higher than it began, and has an average loss of 2.8%. Well, technically 4 years since 2024 has yet to give us a Feb. But still, you have to go back 13 years for 50% or better closing higher. Spy doesn't fair much better. I'll be keeping this in the back of my mind if other signals start turning south. stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=QQQ&compare= |
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 25, 2024 11:30:52 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +13.2% (above average only)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 65.89% (positive only)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 72.60% (overbought still)
Sentiments have been slipping since mid-December.
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