Old Skeet's Barometer Report

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. With the S&P500 Index closing at 4741 and just 55 points from it's all time high of 4796 the Barometer closed with a reading of 84 (overbought). This bullish run that the market has had is mostly driven by price expansion and not earnings growth. Thus when we get into the new year some of the same old headwinds of the past will again surface. One, being the Federal budget and its funding and, two, earnings season will start about the same time as budget talks begin. Remember, many companies were cautious about their forward guidance. With this, Old_Skeet has been building cash as I feel a pullback on the horizon.

[chang]

Dec 12, 2023 3:17:32 GMT steadyeddy said:

Dec 9, 2023 18:24:15 GMT chang said:

He is still registered, his last post was Oct 17, 2023 - not that long ago.

I sent Fearchar a pm couple of weeks back but did not hear back. Trust all is well and he maybe busy with family matters.

I just sent him an email to check in and see if all is well.

Regrettably, we don’t have a good way of keeping track of members who disappear for one reason or another

[steadyeddy]

Dec 19, 2023 11:46:41 GMT chang said:

Dec 12, 2023 3:17:32 GMT steadyeddy said:

I sent Fearchar a pm couple of weeks back but did not hear back. Trust all is well and he maybe busy with family matters.

I just sent him an email to check in and see if all is well.

Regrettably, we don’t have a good way of keeping track of members who disappear for one reason or another

I got a reply back from Fearchar - and he is doing fine; he just took a break from BB.

[mnfish]

Dec 18, 2023 14:02:37 GMT mnfish said:

A Washington Post article headline popped up today.
Everyone expected a recession. The Fed and White House found a way out.

“For me, a big, big party — and I mean, this is really as fun as it gets — is a really good inflation report,” Jerome H. Powell said before a crowd at Spelman College. He flashed a smile and laughed.

So, it must be true.

yogibearbull, I don't have any problem with Powell's quote. It was just that the author used it in the article with the headline that a recession is somehow off the table. An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the last 70+ years and it remains inverted still today. The typical lag to a recession is about 14 months and it's currently at about 17 months. It took about a 24 month lag for the 2008 recession to arrive.
One financial pundit put it this way - "A look back through the financial news pages shows that soft landing stories were common and the yield curve signal was dismissed going into the 1990-1991, 2001, 2007-2009 and 2020 recessions,”

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. For Tuesday December 19th the S&P500 Index gained 27 points closing at 4768 (a new 52 week high) leaving it just 28 points from it's all time closing high of 4796. The Barometer moved upward by 2 points and closed at a reading of 86 (overbought). I have been complating selling my spiff position with a nice gain thinking a near term pullback looms as we move into January. I am thinking that the market is richly priced and should the upcoming earnings season disapoint then there could be a five to ten percent pullback. Throw in the upcoming budget talks and it's funding plus other headwinds I got my exit strategy planned. However, for now I wear a ☺️.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. Here is the update for Wednesday December 20, 2023. The S&P500 Index closed down today giving up 43 points closing at 4698 and leaving it 98 points away from it 52 week high. The US10YrT closed with a yield of 3.88 percent. The Barometer closed the day with a reading of 79 falling 7 points and now rates the Index as overvalued. I decided to close out my spiff today, with profit, as I feel come January things get stormy in the markets, if not before, as big money sells to book profit for 2023.

I Will let the barometer be my guide as to when I should consider to open another spiff position.

[yogibearbull]

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +32.0% (very high)

%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 82.55% (overbought) (Wednesday's drop didn't change the big picture much)

%Above 50-dMA for SP500 85.60% (overbought)                             (")

DJIA reached new highs, SP500 nearly so. Oil rose on Suez-Red-Sea corridor disruption (watch this as shipping rates have almost doubled-tripled).

[uncleharley]

Good Morning!!! Yesterdays sell off was apparently caused by one or several large investors doing year-end adjustments to their portfolios thru the options market. Benzingas analysis is largely bullish so there might not be much to be concerned about. I did close out my TQQQ positions in an effort to book considerable profits while I had them. However, a quick scan this morning has not turned up a lot of attractive alternatives. Consequently, I remain mentally bullish, but my portfolio is defensive with a lot of cash.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. The Index gained back some of what was lost yesterday closing today at 4747 and 49 points from it's all time closing high of 4796. The barometer moved up 3 points closing with a reading of 82, overbought.

Since, I closed out my spiff position yesterday I plan to do a little buying in two of my equity income funds IDIVX and SVAAX with some of the spiff sale proceeds. The residual will be held to open another spiff when felt approperiate.

Currently, I am a little cash heavy and looking for another spiff oportunity and will advise when I open one.

Wishing all, good investing.
Old_Skeet

[uncleharley]

My guiding headline for the day is " Nike earnings, better than expected. Stock is getting crushed." It's dangerous out there so be careful. I don't feel like shorting anything yet.

[mnfish]

The new outlook (slashed revenue growth) reflects increased headwinds "particularly in Greater China and EMEA," NIKE finance chief Matthew Friend said in the earnings call Thursday.

If NIKE thinks China is slowing down, what does that mean for AAPL? It gets about 20% of its revenue from China. Next earnings report is Feb. 1st.

[yogibearbull]

China isn't slowing down, it HAS slowed down, may be on the verge of recession, like some of Europe.
NKE beat quarterly earnings estimates, but provided poor guidance for the full year.
AAPL is getting out of China as fast as it can - it is setting up more in rest of Asia (India, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam). But it can't just quit China.

[mnfish]

I’m not referring to manufacturing but sales. I’m not aware of AAPL guiding down for China so we’ll see in Feb.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. The S&P500 Index closed the week with a reading of 4755 with a 36 point gain leaving it just 41 points from it's 52 week high. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 3.90%. The Barometer closed the week with a reading of 84, overbought. In the Win, Place & Show Leadership Investment Strategy IJR had a track score of 29.0 for the Win, Place went to MDY with a track score of 21.6 and Show went to QQQ with a score of 19.2. In comparison, SPY scored 15.1. Running close behind is EPP, 17.2 and IEV 15.0. A good distance back is CEF, 9.1 ... EEM, 5.9 ... and, SHV, 1.9.

Thanks for stopping by and I wish all Good Inverting.

I am, Old_Skeet

[mnfish]

Dec 22, 2023 16:23:13 GMT mnfish said:

I’m not referring to manufacturing but sales. I’m not aware of AAPL guiding down for China so we’ll see in Feb.

I stand corrected -

"Other companies with heavy exposure to China have also reported weakness recently. Last month, Apple said quarterly revenue in China, its third largest market, fell 2.2% to $15.1 billion, well below the $17 billion Wall Street expected."

[uncleharley]

I am one of those nervous bulls. I rolled my cash into another high yielding cef rather than more equities and am maintaining my position in GDXU as a hedge against the price volatility of my cefs. That strategy has been working for me. My intention is to hold GDXU until after the USD has found support. Since interest rates are trending down, I am not convinced where that support will show up.

[oldskeet]

Old_Skeet's Barometer wishes all it's readers and posters a Merry Christmas and a Properous New Year!

[uncleharley]

And a Merry Christmas to you and all!!!

[racqueteer]

Best wishes for whatever Holiday season you may celebrate, and may your new year bring health, happiness, good fortune, and fortune in general!

[Capital]

Happy Holidays to one and all!!!

[steadyeddy]

Happy Holidays to you all, let us pause to celebrate the festive season regardless of your faith!

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. For Tuesday December 26 the S&P500 Index closed at 4775 up 20 points today and is 21 points from it's all time closing high of 4796. The US10YrT closed the day with a yield of 3.89%. The Barometer closed the day with a reading of 85, overbought. We have three more trading days left in the year. Hopefully, the Index will make a new all time high before year end.

[yogibearbull]

For the new highs watch for SP500, note the closing high 4,796.56 on 1/3/22, and the intraday high 4,818.62 on 1/4/22.

It should clear both decisively. It's within 1% only.

Let us also hope that it won't be a repeat of 2022 when SP500 made a new high and then it was all downhill from then on. This time there is lot of excitement that the IPO window may even open up, but for how long?

[retiredat48]

oldskeet ,chang ,steadyeddy ,mnfish ,yogibearbull ,uncleharley ,racqueteer ,Capital ,...

OK I'm going to declare victory...accurately predicted markets moves for all of Q4.

Posted the following on  25 September:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

"I see the market as fairly normal.

Fairly normal means strong seasonal patterns exist entering and exiting Q4. That pattern is typically(posted about it often):

"Stocks have a very poor September, followed by a bottom in week 1 or 2 in October. Then stocks recover, and November and December are strong upward months. Tax loss selling ends about 20 December."

So here is the most likely market direction I see for Q4:

"Stocks have a very poor September, followed by a bottom in week 1 or 2 in October. Then stocks recover, and November and December are strong upward months. Tax loss selling effects ends about 20 December."

It's not rocket science.

I will be doing some repositioning shortly, and adding some monies now sitting in Money Market funds, into selected stock funds. Also called: Buy when others are fearful."


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Spot on!

Have a good year, folks.


R48

[uncleharley]

I am not very good at projecting very short-term changes of direction for the stock market, however, I would like to change my projection for this cycle for the S&P 500 from 5500 by election day to 5700, possibly 6000, by election day 2024. This projection assumes the war in the middle east subsides without further expansion.

[mnfish]

[fred495]

Dec 27, 2023 13:32:01 GMT uncleharley said:

I am not very good at projecting very short-term changes of direction for the stock market, however, I would like to change my projection for this cycle for the S&P 500 from 5500 by election day to 5700, possibly 6000, by election day 2024. This projection assumes the war in the middle east subsides without further expansion.

  

Do you have any concerns or included in your above projection funding for the federal government past early 2024, and avoiding a possible government shutdown? The CR funds four appropriations bills through Jan. 19, and eight appropriations bills only through Feb. 2.

Thanks,

Fred
  

[uncleharley]

Dec 27, 2023 19:03:01 GMT fred495 said:

Dec 27, 2023 13:32:01 GMT uncleharley said:

I am not very good at projecting very short-term changes of direction for the stock market, however, I would like to change my projection for this cycle for the S&P 500 from 5500 by election day to 5700, possibly 6000, by election day 2024. This projection assumes the war in the middle east subsides without further expansion.

  

Do you have any concerns or included in your above projection funding for the federal government past early 2024, and avoiding a possible government shutdown? The CR funds four appropriations bills through Jan. 19, and eight appropriations bills only through Feb. 2.

Thanks,

Fred
  

Not really.  While political concerns have a very long term effect on the economy and the stock market, I try to focus on what the markets are telling me now.

[oldskeet]

Hi guys. For Wednesday December 27 the Big Index closed up 7 points at 4782. The US10YrT closed with a yield of 3.79%. The Barometer closed the day with a reading of 84, overbought. This puts the Index just 14 points away from it's all time closing high of 4796. For me, I am thinking that stocks are soon due for a pullback as they are overbought by many metrics. With the CR soon to expire this leaves Congress to formulate and fund the 2024 budget that the President will sign and not veto. If this does not take place by the latter part of January then the Federal Government will go into a shutdown phase of operation. I will write more about what I see on the horizon for First Quarter 2024 after Friday's close.

[yogibearbull]

AAII Bull-Bear Spread +21.2% (only above average now)

%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 86.84% (overbought)

%Above 50-dMA for SP500 90.20% (overbought)

SP500 near new highs. The dollar is headed below 100 & that will benefit commodities, EMs, foreign funds.