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Post by archer on Dec 14, 2023 4:24:20 GMT
Question is, Does the fed have a target rate they shoot for as "normal", or do they expect the need to ward off a recession. I'm guessing they will not lower rates unless until they see a need, but may cautiously preempt a recession once they are confident we will reach 2%. I can't begin to predict the fed's future moves and don't put much faith in their current predictions for rate cuts. I don't think Powell does either!
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 14, 2023 12:00:16 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +32.0% (very high)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 81.36% (overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 90.0% (overbought)
The FED held rates & indicated possible cuts in late-2024. An everything-rally followed.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 14, 2023 13:04:55 GMT
I'm staying the course. 5500 SPX or bust, but not in a straight line.
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bruce
Lieutenant
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Post by bruce on Dec 14, 2023 14:28:22 GMT
Hop aboard DOW 38,000. Here we come, baby!!!
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 14, 2023 15:29:39 GMT
Hop aboard DOW 38,000. Here we come, baby!!! 40,000 looks more likely. |
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bruce
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Post by bruce on Dec 14, 2023 15:59:57 GMT
Hop aboard DOW 38,000. Here we come, baby!!! 40,000 looks more likely. Step by step...........
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2023 16:54:46 GMT
Now that no one expects a recession...
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Post by catdog on Dec 14, 2023 17:17:59 GMT
Who was the poster five or ten years ago that always said dow 38,000!!!!
catdog
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Post by Capital on Dec 14, 2023 17:31:28 GMT
Who was the poster five or ten years ago that always said dow 38,000!!!! catdog Brantley ? == correction Bentley (credit to bruce) |
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bruce
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Post by bruce on Dec 14, 2023 18:29:42 GMT
Nearly TWO years ago, on 11/8/2021, Bentley started a thread on the M* forum titled Hop Aboard DOW 37,000. Additionally, he expressed concerns about reaching 38,000 in that thread under the then-existing environment. The DOW reached 36,952. If memory serves me, he never posted Hop Aboard 38,000. Plenty of annoying Hop boards from 18,000 to 37,000, but he stopped at 37,000. While someone may have called for DOW 38,000 5-10 years ago, I don’t think it was Bentley. BTW, Hop Aboard and enjoy what the market is willing to give.
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Post by mnfish on Dec 14, 2023 18:46:14 GMT
No one expected a recession in 2007 either. Let it ride.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 14, 2023 19:25:16 GMT
The stock market seems to be anticipating higher earnings which might be because the USD is skidding lower. A mildly devalued dollar would be a boon to businesses that have a lot of sales in foreign countries. Commodities should begin to do well also. Current volatility seems to be having a positive effect on VIX & VXN. I am enjoying the ride.
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Post by anitya on Dec 14, 2023 19:29:33 GMT
Defensive trades (incl QQQ) are not doing well today. E.g., USMV, XLP, & XLU are down more than 1% and XLV and XLK are down 0.5% (I checked USMV Q div Ex date is not until sometime next week). Seems to me people are not moving money market balances to risk on trades, rather moving money from the defensive trades to offensive trade. So, the current exuberance for Beta may yet be a trade and not a structural shift in mood.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 14, 2023 20:09:42 GMT
Who was the poster five or ten years ago that always said dow 38,000!!!! catdog I have posted in the past that Dow 55,000 was in the cards. Would have to go back and look up post dates/period, but don't have an easy way to search. R48 |
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 14, 2023 20:12:06 GMT
The perspective to have today, IMO, is this: Everyone in history, and still living, who has invested longer term in a stock/fund/etf based portfolio, sits at a gain/increase in their wealth position.
R48
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Post by racqueteer on Dec 14, 2023 20:17:16 GMT
Seems more like a 'catch-up' trade to me. I commented elsewhere that the stuff which is moving was lagging previously; where the stuff not moving was the stuff which was leading - QQQ down with RSP up substantially. In one area, the buys had been pulled forward; in the other area(s), we were just waiting for an 'all clear' signal. At least that's how it seems to me...
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mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 81
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Post by mani on Dec 14, 2023 20:56:22 GMT
The perspective to have today, IMO, is this: Everyone in history, and still living, who has invested longer term in a stock/fund/etf based portfolio, sits at a gain/increase in their wealth position. R48 "in the US"  |
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Post by richardsok on Dec 15, 2023 0:39:29 GMT
The stock market seems to be anticipating higher earnings which might be because the USD is skidding lower. A mildly devalued dollar would be a boon to businesses that have a lot of sales in foreign countries. Commodities should begin to do well also. Current volatility seems to be having a positive effect on VIX & VXN. I am enjoying the ride. We're ALL enjoying the ride, harley. I'm long too; very long. Yet I do get a creepy feeling reading all the happy, confident chatter, DOW 55,000 etc. Seems we're getting a typical Santa Claus rally and, yes, I can't see what (if not an "event") could hurt us in the next few weeks. Neither of us trade on feelings. Nevertheless .... |
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Post by Chahta on Dec 15, 2023 2:14:26 GMT
Hop aboard DOW 38,000. Here we come, baby!!! Who was the guy on M* forum that used to say "All aboard for Dow 3X,000? |
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Post by catdog on Dec 15, 2023 2:21:09 GMT
Capital and Bruce, thanks for the clarifications.
catdog
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Post by anitya on Dec 15, 2023 21:14:11 GMT
oldskeet , uncleharley , Could you please comment on the last 5 min of trading in equities today, especially the last tick (final bar)? (as an aside, Energy probably was the better one of the lot.)
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 15, 2023 23:10:59 GMT
oldskeet , uncleharley , Could you please comment on the last 5 min of trading in equities today, especially the last tick (final bar)? (as an aside, Energy probably was the better one of the lot.) Somebody dumped a lot of stocks in the last 4 minutes of trading. I don't know why. |
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Post by archer on Dec 15, 2023 23:21:30 GMT
oldskeet , uncleharley , Could you please comment on the last 5 min of trading in equities today, especially the last tick (final bar)? (as an aside, Energy probably was the better one of the lot.) Interesting how in the last 16 minutes of trading on the 2 min chart, the market shot up and then back down again. The dumping of financials explains the last few minutes of decline, but what about the big run up a few minutes prior. I'm guessing this was all due to automated trading. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 16, 2023 0:51:11 GMT
Isn't next Friday a huge options expiration day? Would that explain unusual moves?
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Post by liftlock on Dec 16, 2023 1:59:00 GMT
oldskeet , uncleharley , Could you please comment on the last 5 min of trading in equities today, especially the last tick (final bar)? (as an aside, Energy probably was the better one of the lot.) Perhaps because today was a Triple Witching and index rebalancing day for the NASDAQ 100 and SP500. |
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 16, 2023 2:24:16 GMT
Hi guys. I am a retail investor and not an expert trader. Here is my take on today's market close. Today was a big options contract expiration day known as triple witching. I am thinking, that may explain the market close that some are seeking an answer(s) for as to why a good number of buys and sells that took place in the last few minutes of trading.
For the week both bonds and stocks performed well. The S&P500 Index gained 115 points moving from 4604 to 4719 for a 2.4% gain. It sits just 1.6% from it's all time high of 4796. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 3.93% which is down from last Friday's close of 4.25%. Yields and bond prices move in opposite direction of one another. Thus, bond values increased this past week.
During the week the barometer moved from a reading of 76, had a high reading of 82 (overbought) on Thursday, and closed with a reading of 77 on Friday. With this, the Index is scored by the Barometer as overvalued.
The Win, Place and Show assets are as follows with their ranking score. Win, IJR 19.29 points ... Place, MDY 15.37 points ... and, QQQ with 14.58 points. In comparison, SPY came in with a point total of 11.08.
Thanks for stopping by.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 16, 2023 13:31:15 GMT
The strong trading volume on Friday for most of the domestic stock indexes was spurred on by the effect of triple witching of options expirations. This happens every qtr. While the effect of a sell off near the close does not bode well for the open the next day, my thought is that unless something dramatic happens this weekend, the 5 minute sell off will not affect anything on Monday. Meanwhile the weekly charts are bearers of great tidings for the Christmas Season. The weekly S&P 500 chart shows the break above the lip line of the Cup w Handle pattern has been confirmed. Not only was the break confirmed, but the break was done on exceptionally high trading volume and with broadening stock market participation. Based on the expanded trading volume and the breaks above resistance on both the small cap and the mid cap indexes, the current bull run is now being pushed up by small and mid-cap stocks while the large caps get a breather of sorts. The pattern on the S&P 500 still projects a rise to 5500, not before Christmas, but probably sooner than expected initially. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p61563728220&a=524485138&listNum=86 |
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Post by mnfish on Dec 18, 2023 14:02:37 GMT
A Washington Post article headline popped up today.
Everyone expected a recession. The Fed and White House found a way out.
“For me, a big, big party — and I mean, this is really as fun as it gets — is a really good inflation report,” Jerome H. Powell said before a crowd at Spelman College. He flashed a smile and laughed.
So, it must be true.
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 18, 2023 14:12:32 GMT
mnfish , from TwitterLINKNick Timiraos (WSJ) @nicktimiraos Earlier this month, the president of Spelman College asked Jay Powell, "What does fun look like for the chair of the Federal Reserve?" Powell responded, "For me, a big, big party—and I mean this is as fun as it gets—is a really good inflation report."
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 18, 2023 21:28:02 GMT
The Nasdaq logged in another gain today. That makes 7 or 8 consecutive days up and the highest close since Jan, 2020. The Nasdaq has made a confirmed break above the neckline of a cup w handle pattern on its weekly chart. The pattern projects a run to about 18000 over the next 8 or 9 months. Dr Copper is also making a break from a cup w handle pattern. Maybe the market is calling off the recession many people are looking for.
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