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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 30, 2023 11:34:01 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +29.2% (high)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 72.07% (overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 76.60% (overbought)
Interest rates declined a bit. Gold & cryptos are rallying.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 2, 2023 8:54:25 GMT
Hi guys. Another good week for stocks and bonds. For the week the S&P500 Index gained 36 points moving from 4559 to 4595 for a 0.79% gain. The US10YrT moved from a yield of 4.47% to 4.23% for a decline in it's yield of 5.36%. Bond yields and their values move in opposite direction of one another. Old_Skeet's Barometer moved from a reading of 72 to a reading of 77 which is the upper end of overvalued on it's scale. Another 3 points and it will be scored as overbought. The equally weighted Index etf RSP out paced the cap weighted Index 2.46% to 0.79%. This tells me that more of the underlying stocks in the Index have now started to gain traction and begun an upward move. With this, the Big Index is only 12 points away from it's 52 week high of 4607 and 201 points from it's all time high of 4796. It is up year to date 19.7%. For the week the small cap etf IJR gained 2.78% and the mid cap etf MDY gained 2.54%, which for the week, both beat the Big Index.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 2, 2023 13:26:56 GMT
Market breadth continued to improve last week. The DJI led the major indexes with a 2.42% gain on the week indicating quality dividend paying, large cap stocks are in vogue. Trading volume was average. This run has legs.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 5, 2023 7:47:18 GMT
Hi guys. Monday was a take back day for the S&P500 Index as it gave back 25 points moving from 4595 down to 4570. However, the Barometer remained at a reading of 77 (overvalued). This morning in checking the futures, as I write, this is looking to be another down day for the Index. Thanks for stopping by.
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 5, 2023 12:41:46 GMT
oldskeet, thanks for your continued updates and commentary. I do learn from those. With a November to remember in terms of gains, I am not certain there is immediate room upwards to run.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 6, 2023 1:01:50 GMT
Hi guys. For Tuesday December 5th the S&P500 gave up a mere 2 points moving from 4570 to 4568. Due to some softening in some of the barometer's data feeds the barometer closed down 2 points with a reading of 75 (overvalued). In doing some reference work today I found the ttm earnings for the Index closed November at $190.75 (as reported). With a closing value of 4595 computes to ttm p/e ratio of 24.1 which equates to an earnings yield of 4.15. Today, the US10YrT closed with a yield of 4.17. Interesting? Yes.
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 6, 2023 2:57:03 GMT
Hi guys. For Tuesday December 5th the S&P500 gave up a mere 2 points moving from 4570 to 4568. Due to some softening in some of the barometer's data feeds the barometer closed down 2 points with a reading of 75 (overvalued). In doing some reference work today I found the ttm earnings for the Index closed November at $190.75 (as reported). With a closing value of 4595 computes to ttm p/e ratio of 24.1 which equates to an earnings yield of 4.15. Today, the US10YrT closed with a yield of 4.17. Interesting? Yes. , thank you as always. What is the forward P/E based on earnings estimates? Do you have that info? |
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 6, 2023 12:56:10 GMT
Hi steadyeddy, Thank for your question regarding forward estimates for the S&P500 Index. This number comes from talk around the water cooler. As of the first part of December I have heard top line estimates being in the $245.00 range for all of 2024. I myself am not as optimistic. I am seeing more like 210 to 215 maybe 220 on the as reported number with good financial engineering. I am simply not seeing the optimism of the others. A good number of bank CEO's are in Washington with testimony secluded before Congress. I am looking to find clues from them as to where the economy and markets might be headed. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 6, 2023 13:17:02 GMT
Yardeni for SP500: Earnings $225 (2023), $250 (2024); current Forward P/E 18.7. He generates his estimates bottoms up; many strategists do this top down.
Trailing (historical) P/E includes many nonoperational factors and are good for history only.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 7, 2023 6:56:51 GMT
Hi guys. Wednesday was another give back day for the Big Index as it moved from 4568 down to 4549 giving back 19 points for the day. The US10YrT closed the day with a yield of 4.12%. Due to a continued softening in some of the data feeds in the Barometer it closed the day with a reading of 72. It seems that their is some profit selling now taking place. How long this continues is the question at hand. My thinking it will last until the market finds some new energy to propell it forward. Currently, some of the big investment houses are divided about the markets and their outlook. Some are bullish and some are bearish.
On the corporate earnings print Old_Skeet favors using ttm numbers because this is the actual number generated by a company for the past twelve rolling months and used in their financial reports. Forward estimates are just that, estimates. And, often times companies fall short of estimates. Sometimes estimates get reduced just before a company reports and in this way a beat rate is achieved. Such a game.
It has been almost two years since the bears took control of the high ground and although there have been some pretty strong bullish charges they have thus far been unable to retake the high ground. Some say a new bull market started but for me until the bulls retake the high ground of S&P500 4796 the bears rule the roost.
By the way, Old_Skeet is long term bullish.
And, so it goes.
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 7, 2023 11:39:11 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +19.9% (above average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 75.04% (overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 81.20% (overbought)
Gold stalled. Crypto rally continued.
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Post by mnfish on Dec 7, 2023 13:20:56 GMT
From recent Wells Advisors note -
"We believe investors are discounting credit tightening conditions across the economy. Per the Fed's October quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey, businesses and consumers are having a tougher time obtaining credit for everything from operating and equipment loans to auto and home loans. The American economy runs on credit. When less credit is available, spending is typically hindered."
"Remain defensive"
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 7, 2023 13:35:49 GMT
I would add to the recent posts that the S&P small, mid, & large cap indexes have all moved down from overbought on their RSI indicators. Small and mid caps still have strong momentum and all of the indexes had mildly above average trading volume yesterday. I remain long and leveraged on domestic equities.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 8, 2023 8:26:01 GMT
Hi guys. For Thursday December 7, the Big Index gained 37 points moving from 4549 to 4586 but remains down 9 points for the week. The US10YrT closed the day with a yield of 4.13%. The Barometer closed with a reading of 73 (overvalued). In checking the futures early this morning it appears the Index will open down. For me, I had some oef's that made year end distributions yesterday. After listening to Tom Lee on CNBC yesterday one of his asset picks for 2024 is small caps. Thus, I may add a little to my small/mid cap sleeve. Thanks for stopping by. OS
Additional comment. Check back over the weekend for the Win, Place and Show Recap.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 8, 2023 13:08:11 GMT
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Post by anitya on Dec 8, 2023 20:11:15 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +19.9% (above average) %Above 50-dMA for NYSE 75.04% (overbought) %Above 50-dMA for SP500 81.20% (overbought) Gold stalled. Crypto rally continued. If you are not making a separate AAII survey post, please continuing to include a link to your website when u report AAII survey as I like to read the detail. |
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Post by bb2 on Dec 8, 2023 20:12:14 GMT
I cry uncle and buy small cap growth and my usual goto, LAMR.
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Post by Capital on Dec 8, 2023 22:49:55 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +19.9% (above average) %Above 50-dMA for NYSE 75.04% (overbought) %Above 50-dMA for SP500 81.20% (overbought) Gold stalled. Crypto rally continued. If you are not making a separate AAII survey post, please continuing to include a link to your website when u report AAII survey as I like to read the detail. , Here is the link. |
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 9, 2023 2:37:34 GMT
A quick review of the weekly charts for the major stock indexes indicates that they have strong support immediately below current levels and very little resistance above. Small and mid-caps have begun to move up indicating that market participation is broader than it was a couple of weeks ago. Longer term treasury rates continue to trend down. Mtg rates are tracking treasury rates. The CRB index has lost momentum and may have begun to trend down. The USD still looks bearish to me but technically is in a consolidation pattern. I remain bullish on domestic stocks.
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Post by anitya on Dec 9, 2023 4:32:27 GMT
If you are not making a separate AAII survey post, please continuing to include a link to your website when u report AAII survey as I like to read the detail. , Here is the link. Thanks, Capital. I am sure I am not the only one that likes the detail at his site. |
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 9, 2023 8:20:31 GMT
Hi guys. Here is the weekending recap for December 9th. For the week the S&P500 Index gained 9 points closing at 4604 and sits 192 points from it's all time high of 4796. The US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 4.25%. The barometer closed at a reading of 76 (overvalued). For the rolling month in my win, place & show strategy the lead pack consisted of IJR +9.41%, MDY +8.15% and IEV +7.17%. SPY which the barometer tracks was up 5.25%. So the smids and Europe have come alive and my two step spiff made up of the smids is now well in the money. My win, place and show strategy shows me where the faster moving market currents are within my investing universe. Thanks for stopping by. Old_Skeet.
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 9, 2023 15:56:05 GMT
I have been posting some sentiment blurbs for a few weeks here to support oldskeet 's efforts. His is the only long-running sentiment thread here. Other sentiment threads here haven't been received well. Fearchar gave up on his sentiment thread. I stopped the AAII Sentiment thread in 2021. Consider my mid-week Sentiment posts now as a trial. There are also Sentiment details in the weekly Barron's. My Sentiment posts are also readily available elsewhere. |
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Post by anitya on Dec 9, 2023 18:13:19 GMT
yogibearbull, I read your AAII post at your site every week. So, fine not to post here. Where is Fearchar? I have not seen his posts in some time.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 9, 2023 18:19:06 GMT
yogibearbull ,...I pay attention to your sentiment indicators. Including an investment forums indicator. I find the majority sentiment on the forums is a negative correlation indicator in that the market will usually do the opposite of current sentiment. R48
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Post by chang on Dec 9, 2023 18:24:15 GMT
Where is Fearchar ? I have not seen his posts in some time. He is still registered, his last post was Oct 17, 2023 - not that long ago. |
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 12, 2023 2:44:08 GMT
Hi guys. For Monday the S&P500 Index closed above it's 52 week high of 4607 at 4628 and now sits 168 points from it's all time high of 4796. The US10YrT closed with a yield of 4.24%. The barometer closed with a reading of 77 which is the upper end of overvalued. Another gain of 3 points and the Index will become scored as overbought. The Win, Place and Show Leadership strategy will be updated on Friday. Thanks for stopping by. Old_Skeet
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 12, 2023 3:17:32 GMT
Where is Fearchar ? I have not seen his posts in some time. He is still registered, his last post was Oct 17, 2023 - not that long ago. I sent Fearchar a pm couple of weeks back but did not hear back. Trust all is well and he maybe busy with family matters. |
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 12, 2023 13:28:48 GMT
Hi guys. I thought I would provide short blurb about Old_Skeet's Win, Place & Show Leadership Investment Strategy. The strategy consist of nine investment positions. They are represented in my matrix by the following 9 ETFs. The are SPY, MDY, IJR, QQQ, EEM, EPP, IEV, CEF and SHV. I generally pick one to two to put spiff money into and as long as they can maintain a lead pack position I generally hold until they falter and fall from the pack. The matrix tracks the price performance and is the only metric used. Currently, the lead pack consist of IJR, MDY & IEV. My spiff position is in small caps and is represented by IJR. Overall the lead pack represents about 45% of my equity allocation. Each Friday I will post the leaders along with their 1 month rolling performance. Following the strategy has helped me maintain a good representation in the faster moving assets on the equity side of my portfolio.
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Post by Capital on Dec 13, 2023 19:29:05 GMT
oldskeet , looking forward to your report and other comments posted here this evening - Capital.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 14, 2023 2:29:06 GMT
Hi guys. Indeed today is a day of celebration for a good number of investors, myself included, as the Big Index makes a new 52 week high and stands 89 points from it's all time high of 4796. Although we celebrate today come Friday is a big options expiration day. And, for the FOMC announcing a pivot and three rate cuts for 2024 puzzles me. Are they seeing something in the economy we as investors should be concerned about? I will let each of you ponder this. By the way, the Barometer closed the day with a reading of 80 (overbought).
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