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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 14, 2023 23:03:04 GMT
Among the indicators that I watch, only %Above number is available.
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE is 63.43% (positive).
%Above 50-0dMA for SP500 is 66.40% (positive).
Now we aren't far from overbought (> 70%).
If we move quickly from oversold (< 30%) to overbought (> 70%) in just a few days, that isn't a healthy market but borderlines as unstable market.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 23:08:37 GMT
ST + LT T/A show healthy signs for RSP=SP500 equal weight and only 3.8% for YTD and SC up 5+% today....both = more room to run... Time will tell. Attachments:
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Post by richardsok on Nov 14, 2023 23:23:32 GMT
I'm dancing so hard I might pee my pants. Small caps and Mid-caps outperformed large caps by nearly 2 to 1 today making market breadth a minimal concern if any. Based on the last 30 minutes of trading, I expect some backfilling in the morning. That should give the doubters an opportunity to jump on board. "Rejoice, O Israel, for the stock market hath risen. O Lord, can You do it now for the Nasdaq?" --Woody Allen |
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 15, 2023 21:49:26 GMT
Hi guys. On Wednesday November 15, the S&P500 Index closed with a reading of 4503 up 7 points for the day. The US10YrT closed with a yield of 4.54%. Through the day the Barometer had a high reading of 66 and closed the day with a reading of 62 (overvalued).
Since October 27, through market close today, the Index has moved from a reading of 4117 to a reading of 4503 for a gain of 386 points, 9.4%. The barometer has moved from a reading of 17 (oversold) to a reading of 62 (overvalued). The US10YrT has moved from a yield of 4.84% to a yield of 4.54%. This computes to a decline in yield of 6.2%.
Hopefully, what began as a relief rally will find some intermediate term legs and will continue an upward path through the first quarter of 2024.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 15, 2023 23:13:29 GMT
We have strong support directly below the current price for the S&P 500. Consequently, I see very little downside risk in the broader stock market. The current advance continues to be narrow and requires greater participation by the small caps before growing significant "legs". The mid-caps are doing better than the smalls. My expectation is for stocks to move upward & test old highs after some consolidation at or near current levels.
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Post by archer on Nov 15, 2023 23:38:06 GMT
The market may broaden at least right to left as value tends to lead growth in the 4th quarter, based on stockcharts seasonality graphs. While this is not a primary indicator, it does add to the other bullish market factors. I see a case where value might lead, and growth is just a step behind rather than a rotation where the 2 even out.
As for up and down, smalls not only gapped yesterday, but also continued to climb throughout and end the day on a wickless candle, and on very high volume. Today smalls performed pretty much like the rest of the market.
I wonder if the surge in small caps yesterday will inhibit more short term gains.
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 16, 2023 12:21:37 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +15.7% (not much change from last week, but still a huge change over 2 weeks)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 66.2%
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 70% (from oversold to overbought in about a dozen days)
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 17, 2023 2:16:00 GMT
Todays market stats indicate that Tech and finance sectors are leading the broader market up, but lack of market breadth is a concern. Small and mid-caps have to step up for us to have a strong advance. XLK set a new high today.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 18, 2023 8:34:56 GMT
Hi guys. For the weekending November 17th the S&P500 Index finished the week with a gain of 2.2%. The US10YrT yield declined 19 basis points from a yield of 4.63% down to 4.44% for a 4.1% decline. Bond yields and bond values move in opposite direction of one another.
The S&P500 Index now sits at 2.0% off it's 52 week high and 5.9% off it's all time high of 4796.
This past week the better performing sleeves on the equity side were my small mid cap sleeve with a gain of around 5% and my global equity income sleeve with a gain of around 3%. My fixed income sleeve finished the week with a gain of 1.3%.
The Barometer moved from a reading of 46 (fairvalue) to finish the week with a reading of 65 (overvalued) for the Big Index.
Over the past three weeks the Index has gained 397 points, 9.6%. The yield on the US10YrT has moved from 4.84% to 4.44% for a 40 basis point decline, 9.1%. The Barometer moved from a reading of 17 (oversold) to a reading of 65 (overvalued).
Things seem to be moving in the right direction as Big Money reduces their short positions and levers up long in stocks. Just remember this money can leave just as fast as it came should the investment climate change.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Wishing All Good Inverting.
Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 18, 2023 12:29:47 GMT
I can only confirm oldskeets report and perhaps add that the QQQs appear to be ready to challenge their all time highs. Most of the major stock indexes indicate they are consolidating their gains and building a base from which to move higher.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 20, 2023 22:28:00 GMT
An update. Dollar down, copper up, stocks continue to rally. For Monday November 20th the S&P500 Index closed up 34 points moving from 4514 to 4548 for a 0.75% gain. The US10YrT closed with a yield of 4.42% down 2 basis points for the day. Old_Skeet's Barometer moved from a reading of 65 to 68 and now sits midway in an overvalued reading on it's scale. It appears short volumes in SPY are once again on the uptick. Thanks for stopping by. Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 21, 2023 1:32:52 GMT
The Nasdaq 100 closed at new recent high and about 700 points from the all time high.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 22, 2023 23:03:42 GMT
Hi guys. I made no report yesterday. Since the last report the S&P500 Index has gained 9 points closing today at 4557 for a two day gain of 0.2%. The US10YrT has remained steady with a yield of 4.42%. Old_Skeet's Barometer closed the day with a reading of 70 which is midway of overvalued on it's scale.
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 23, 2023 11:56:43 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +21.7% (above average)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 66.4% (positive; not far from overbought)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 74.0% (overbought)
There is chatter on social-media that this rally may have legs to reach new highs by the yearend or early-2024.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 23, 2023 12:07:00 GMT
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 23, 2023 14:08:03 GMT
As the article states, I do not foresee higher economic growth in the midst of weakening consumer.. But that never stopped stocks from becoming disconnected from reality. |
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Post by gman57 on Nov 23, 2023 14:24:51 GMT
SP500 has been flat to down for 2 years. Wall of worry will lead to new highs as interest rates are on hold, inflation is kind of under control and future interest rates could easily go down if there is any hint of a slowdown. 83% of elections years are up. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 23, 2023 15:32:33 GMT
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +21.7% (above average) %Above 50-dMA for NYSE 66.4% (positive; not far from overbought) %Above 50-dMA for SP500 74.0% (overbought) There is chatter on social-media that this rally may have legs to reach new highs by the yearend or early-2024. Same "chatter" as R48 who posted in September "...that market will fall to about second week in October (decline went to last week Oct due Israeli war breakout), and would then do its seasonal strong rally through November and December. Not rocket science." Happens about every year. And tax loss selling dries up soon. But remember, delaying cap gains is also a common strategy, which makes the first week of January suspect following up-years, as in: "why take cap gains late Dec when can defer a tax year into January." First week Jan is difficult to surmise. Another saying: As goes January, so goes the year!
Best wishes... |
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 23, 2023 16:31:24 GMT
Another saying: As goes January, so goes the year!Kind of like saying that the guy with a ten meter lead in a 100 m sprint is likely to finish first, though. Not sure it means too much beyond that? Some other guy might have won during the other 90% of the race! |
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 23, 2023 16:31:57 GMT
Confidence can be confused with complacency. Given the fundamentals and chart patterns, I choose to remain confident.
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Post by racqueteer on Nov 23, 2023 16:35:15 GMT
Confidence can be confused with complacency. Given the fundamentals and chart patterns, I choose to remain confident. Absolutely. The trend remains in place - until it doesn't.  |
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Post by Capital on Nov 23, 2023 17:25:32 GMT
My my my - so much thinking on Thanksgiving. I'm all tied up working on this plate of equal parts Brisket, Ham, Turkey and that vegetable thing. Happy Thanksgiving to you all. Now pull up a chair to the table.
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Post by Chahta on Nov 24, 2023 11:09:11 GMT
Another saying: As goes January, so goes the year!Kind of like saying that the guy with a ten meter lead in a 100 m sprint is likely to finish first, though. Not sure it means too much beyond that? Some other guy might have won during the other 90% of the race! Small caps were good in January and are starting to look good in November. Let’s hope it holds. Capital, does turkey gravy go well with brisket? Asking for a friend. 😂 |
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 24, 2023 12:24:46 GMT
There are several reasons for the January Effect.
TLH in December - but now also in October (for funds) and that has diluted this effect. Whatever sold off in Q4 tends to bounce in Q1.
New Year Q1 starts out with lots of optimism, but the reality sets in by Q4.
Yearend bonuses - some get deployed into the market.
Annual reallocations - many do this routinely.
etc
So, it's notable when it doesn't happen. Also overdone is first 5 days of January, etc. A weak effect refined is a weaker effect.
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Post by Capital on Nov 24, 2023 16:18:38 GMT
Kind of like saying that the guy with a ten meter lead in a 100 m sprint is likely to finish first, though. Not sure it means too much beyond that? Some other guy might have won during the other 90% of the race! Small caps were good in January and are starting to look good in November. Let’s hope it holds. Capital , does turkey gravy go well with brisket? Asking for a friend. 😂 , I'm not sure. Never tried it. I do know that brisket goes well with ham and turkey. |
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 25, 2023 5:10:43 GMT
Hi guys. Here is the rolling four week report from October 27 to November 24. The S&P500 Index has moved from a reading of 4117 to 4559 for a gain of 442 points (10.7%). The US10YrT has moved from a yield of 4.84% to 4.47% for a 37 basis point decline (7.6%). Yield and bond values move in opposite direction.
The Barometer moved from a reading of 17 (oversold) to a reading of 72 (overvalued).
For me my cash area of my portfolio gained 0.46%, my income area gained 4.5%, my growth and income area gained 7.8% and my growth area gained 11.2%. The overall gain was 6.2%. Year to date I am up 7.4%, not including spiff gains.
The Index sits off it's 52 week high by about 1%. It will be interesting to see what the next five weeks bring as short volume in SPY has declined over the past few days as Big Money levers up. Hopefully, the smids will soon begin to move as the seasonal stock rally trend finds more traction.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
Additional comment. In reading YBB's Barons' recap, this weekend, I came across a blurb in it that, I believe, supports the overvalued Barometer reading. It reads. "SP500 has cleared several technical levels. Economic data has been good. Investor FOMO is back. Seasonality should provide the additional push to new highs. As both stocks and bonds have done well recently, the assumption rates won't change (much)". With this in mind I am looking for higher Barometer readings as stocks continue an anticipated upward path.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 25, 2023 11:21:13 GMT
I would like to add that the Finance and the Tech sectors are leading the market higher. Small and mid-caps have begun to come awake but need a jolt. The Qs have made a bullish break that projects a 32% or so gain over the next 9 months.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 28, 2023 8:43:58 GMT
Hi guys. For Monday November 27th the S&P500 Index gave up 9 points and closed at 4550. The US10YrT pulled back 8 basis points to a yield of 4.39%. The barometer closed the day with a reading of 70 and gave up 2 points; but, remains overvalued on it's scale. This put stocks down and bonds up as yields and bond values move in opposite direction of one another. December is looking to be a sizeable mutual fund distribution month for me and could raise my cash level in my portfolio by as much as 2%. With this, I have been looking at where I might invest these dollars. A thought is to expand my hybrid income sleeve and add a business development type mutual fund of sorts (LPFAX) to it rather than going the etf route. The fund has a variable income stream derived from it's holdings which consist of a good number of BDC's. I have got a month to ponder this so my thoughts could change.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 28, 2023 23:27:15 GMT
Hi guys. For Tuesday November 28th the S&P500 Index closed up 5 points at 4555. The US10YrT pulled back 5 basis points to a yield of 4.34%. And, the barometer moved up a point to a reading of 71 (overvalued).
I am thinking that another fund that might catch some dollars should interest rates continue to decline and the Dollar retreats would be my commodity strategy fund especially should the FOMC start cutting rates.
I am thinking that if one waits to long to position for rate cuts then most assets will have already been run up a good ways by the time the FOMC decides to pivot. So, I have now begin to ponder.
Thanks for stopping by.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 29, 2023 2:15:06 GMT
The CRB index continues to consolidate, but with a bullish bias. Agriculture products and base metals look bearish while precious metals are bullish. Energy is a crapshoot at this time. Long term, the index should rise.
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