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Post by fred495 on Nov 8, 2023 15:41:52 GMT
Hi guys. The Index has, thus far, in this throwback rally of sorts recovered about half of what has been lost but remains down about 5% from it's 52 week high. Headwinds can become spoilers very quickly as (again) a possible US Government shutdown looms, transports are all down as shipping volumes are down, and high interest rates along with high credit card balances are slowing consumer spending. Thus far, recent Corporate earnings reporting have been decent with forward guidance not so good. What's this saying? For me it's saying, govern with caution. [...] Well said, skeet. A few days ago, I posted the following on another thread: "The stock market just finished its best week in almost a year, but lurking beneath the euphoric surface are fears about Corporate America’s profit outlook.
Among companies that have issued guidance this earnings season for next quarter and beyond, more have been providing estimates that trail analysts’ expectations. A gauge of forward guidance that compares corporate forecasts with the Wall Street consensus has been lower only once since 2019, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show."
There is also the prospect of a prolonged government shutdown and a market that is still relatively expensive. The Fed's inflation target remains at +2% and rate hikes are still possible. As a conservative and retired investor, I prefer to err on the side of caution and feel quite comfortable earning a risk-free 5.3%+ in CDs and a Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF at this time. Fred |
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Post by Norbert on Nov 8, 2023 16:45:43 GMT
Hi guys. The Index has, thus far, in this throwback rally of sorts recovered about half of what has been lost but remains down about 5% from it's 52 week high. Headwinds can become spoilers very quickly as (again) a possible US Government shutdown looms, transports are all down as shipping volumes are down, and high interest rates along with high credit card balances are slowing consumer spending. Thus far, recent Corporate earnings reporting have been decent with forward guidance not so good. What's this saying? For me it's saying, govern with caution. [...] Well said, skeet. A few days ago, I posted the following on another thread: "The stock market just finished its best week in almost a year, but lurking beneath the euphoric surface are fears about Corporate America’s profit outlook.
Among companies that have issued guidance this earnings season for next quarter and beyond, more have been providing estimates that trail analysts’ expectations. A gauge of forward guidance that compares corporate forecasts with the Wall Street consensus has been lower only once since 2019, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show."
There is also the prospect of a prolonged government shutdown and a market that is still relatively expensive. The Fed's inflation target remains at +2% and rate hikes are still possible. As a conservative and retired investor, I prefer to err on the side of caution and feel quite comfortable earning a risk-free 5.3%+ in CDs and a Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF at this time. Fred There are definitely reasons for caution, such as the relatively high PEs and earnings downgrades you mention. Bank credit standards for individuals and corporations are being tightened, which has spelled trouble in the past. This is a forward-looking indicator, representing the informed views of bank credit officers. My general take is that the zero-interest bubble will take longer to work off. |
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 8, 2023 21:44:21 GMT
Hi guys. The Big Index added 5 points and closed at 4383 for a gain of 0.11% today. The yield on the US10YrT lost 5 basis points and closed with a yield of 4.52%. Old_Skeet's Barometer detected some softness in some of it's data feeds and closed with a reading of 42 which is down 1 point for the day and just barley falls in a fairvalue reading on the scale. With this, I chose to reduce my holdings in my equity ballast sleeve and sold my last step buy for a nice gain.
I will be traveling for the next couple of days and will try to keep the daily updates coming. If not, check back over the weekend as I should have posted something by then.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Wishing All, Good Inverting!
Old_Skeet
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Post by archer on Nov 8, 2023 22:20:13 GMT
It would be nice to see it break below a nice round number, 4.50%. The 10 yr yield is possibly forming an inverse head and shoulders.
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 9, 2023 11:51:10 GMT
Impressive turn OR flip-flop in the Sentiment.
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +15.4% (above average; from very low -26.0% last Week)
%Above 50-dMA for NYSE 44.53% (negative; from oversold 24.90% last week)
%Above 50-dMA for SP500 46.00% (negative; from oversold 25.20% last week)
Good seasonality period is November 1 - April 30.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 9, 2023 13:01:20 GMT
I already see the break for higher ground on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. I am waiting for confirmation of the break which might be some needed strength in the small & mid-caps. The Qs made a break above their Flag pattern yesterday. Early morning trading is difficult to read.
EDIT: Oh well, maybe tomorrow.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 10, 2023 1:26:24 GMT
Hi guys. This will be short. The barometer pulled back another point today due to continued softness in some of it's data feeds and closed with a reading of 41 (upper range of undervalued). I am thinking due to investors wanting higher yields from their bids in the Government's bond auction today pushed stocks lower. Not sure what kind of fuel might be coming to push stocks higher. Therefore, it looks to me like more downside. I will have more thoughts coming. Old_Skeet
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Post by archer on Nov 10, 2023 3:00:26 GMT
Powell's comments today probably didn't help any either.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 10, 2023 21:42:32 GMT
Those comments didn't seem to hurt anything either. The S&P 500 closed decidedly above the neckline of the inverted H&S pattern I mentioned previously. Next check point is 4521, then we challenge the previous high of 4607. My port is long and leveraged in equities. Namely TQQQ.
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Post by anitya on Nov 10, 2023 22:31:51 GMT
During after hours, Moody's changed its US Govt credit rating outlook from AAA stable to AAA negative. I do not see a material change to 10 yr yield in the 1 hr after Moody's change ("downgrade" may be is a strong word for some). It will take a lot more fiscal disfunction for Moody's to drop the rating to AA.
Also, the last budget CR expires at the end of next Friday.
I was expecting China equities to perform better today, given the announcement of high level dialogue between the countries.
Overall, the market generally seem to stick to the general recent trend.
Enjoy the weekend and worry about next week when we get there!
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 13, 2023 9:46:13 GMT
Hi guys. Sorry for the delay in posting as wife and I were traveling on a long weekend and did not get back until late Sunday evening. For the weekending November 10, the S&P500 Index gained 1.3% with a barometer reading of 46 (fairvalue). The US10YrT ended the week with a yield of 4.63%. Moody's downgraded U S debt, so possibly yields will go higher. The major headwind for the week is Congress formulating and passing a Budget the the President will sign without a Veto. We are currently operating under a Continued Resolution which expires on Friday. Looking a little further out the FOMC meets in December with some projecting another rate increase. For me, I am short term bearish but long term bullish. Remember, 2024 is a Presidential election year and I am not looking for the stock market to do much until after the elections are over. Buckle up. It is going to be an interesting week.
Edit: This sentence should have read ... Moody's downgraded U S debt to a negative outlook, so yields may go higher.
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 13, 2023 11:30:23 GMT
oldskeet , " Moody's downgraded U S debt,..." Well, Moody's/ MCO kept the US rating at AAA, but downgraded the "outlook" - meaning that it may downgrade (or may not). Check out who is the top shareholder of MCO.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 13, 2023 14:54:22 GMT
Ah. It's Ann Hathaway's brother Berkshire. What import ... ?
Tomorrow we get CPI. Could be market moving, or not. Headline is called at 3.6%, but Core is forecast to be 4.1%. Not reassuring with Core that high.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 13, 2023 22:35:33 GMT
Tomorrow we get CPI. Could be market moving, or not. C'mon Norbert...you are usually not this wishy-washy. It is simply a truism...could be market moving, or not! Edit to add: So let's say we get a "good/lower CPI." If markets go up, the reporters say...market responded to the good CPI and expects inflation to slow. If market goes down, reporters say: "Market shrugged off good news and it likely was already baked into prices with the last ten day market rally. Traders took profits." Reporters never lose looking backwards. R48 |
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 13, 2023 22:50:44 GMT
LOL, Traders say the market is going up and it has nothing to do with the CPI.
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Post by Capital on Nov 13, 2023 23:43:53 GMT
LOL, Traders say the market is going up and it has nothing to do with the CPI. , I agree. The Market goes up when the traders feel good and goes down when they don't. It's just as simple as that. The tough part is understanding when and why them emotional critters feel the way they do.  |
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 14, 2023 1:56:49 GMT
Hi guys. There was not much movement in the barometer's reading today as it remains in the lower part of fair value.
I will provide updates when felt warranted going forward.
Thanks for stopping by.
Old_Skeet
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 14, 2023 2:34:44 GMT
LOL, Traders say the market is going up and it has nothing to do with the CPI. , I agree. The Market goes up when the traders feel good and goes down when they don't. It's just as simple as that. The tough part is understanding when and why them emotional critters feel the way they do. The why is usually up for debate. The when question can be effectively reduced by developing & employing a skill set that is appropriate for that job. To me, the wiggles and wags that are plotted over some determinate length of time reflects the reaction of market participants and, like human behavior, can be projected into the future. |
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 3:55:05 GMT
LOL, Traders say the market is going up and it has nothing to do with the CPI. , I agree. The Market goes up when the traders feel good and goes down when they don't. It's just as simple as that. The tough part is understanding when and why them emotional critters feel the way they do. The market goes up because there are more buyers than sellers, plain simple. The cause is not necessarily "feel good" because stocks go up sometimes on a wall of worry or after a war broke down and there are many deaths. If there was an emotional repeatable algorithm, Wall street would find it. The emotional part is the one that is difficult to predict. |
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Post by archer on Nov 14, 2023 5:18:58 GMT
uncleharley , I agree. The Market goes up when the traders feel good and goes down when they don't. It's just as simple as that. The tough part is understanding when and why them emotional critters feel the way they do. The market goes up because there are more buyers than sellers, plain simple. The cause is not necessarily "feel good" because stocks go up sometimes on a wall of worry or after a war broke down and there are many deaths. If there was an emotional repeatable algorithm, Wall street would find it. The emotional part is the one that is difficult to predict. +1 The emotional response when the Fed starts lowering rates could be positive and people buy. OTOH sentiment could be negative if investors take it as a sign the Fed fears a possible recession. |
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 14, 2023 13:48:19 GMT
The CPI is out and emotions seem to be having a tough time keeping up with market price on the futures market. I am glad I bought TQQQ yesterday and friday.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 14, 2023 14:02:07 GMT
The CPI is out and emotions seem to be having a tough time keeping up with market price on the futures market. I am glad I bought TQQQ yesterday and friday. Excellent call! I think you should buy us all lunch. |
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 14, 2023 14:13:39 GMT
The CPI is out and emotions seem to be having a tough time keeping up with market price on the futures market. I am glad I bought TQQQ yesterday and friday. Excellent call! I think you should buy us all lunch. That is a very good idea, but many of you guys could buy my portfolio and lunch. BTW, is wine a part of the CPI? It seems to have become a bit volatile. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 14, 2023 14:27:03 GMT
I track CPI changes. Healhcare contribution is being adjusted now. Earlier in the year, some weightings and contributions from housing, etc were adjusted. I am sure wine is in there in some food/drink category. ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1252/thread |
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Post by Capital on Nov 14, 2023 17:14:09 GMT
Looks like the squiggly line is going up today. Happy traders 😊
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 14, 2023 21:12:05 GMT
I'm dancing so hard I might pee my pants. Small caps and Mid-caps outperformed large caps by nearly 2 to 1 today making market breadth a minimal concern if any. Based on the last 30 minutes of trading, I expect some backfilling in the morning. That should give the doubters an opportunity to jump on board.
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Post by anitya on Nov 14, 2023 21:43:04 GMT
I wanted to sell anything today but felt like a deer in headlights. Anybody taking profits today?
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 14, 2023 21:47:33 GMT
I wanted to sell anything today but felt like a deer in headlights. Anybody taking profits today? No. The rally will likely continue into the year-end and perhaps into January 2024. Bulk of today's price action is possibly shorts being squeezed out - but none-the-less the bulls appear to be in charge in this favorable period of the year. |
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 14, 2023 21:58:20 GMT
Hi guys. Oh what a day. The S&P500 Index gained 84 points for a 1.9% gain today. This puts the Index off it's 52 week high by 2.4% and up from it's 52 week low by 19.4% with a year to date gain of 17.1%. There must have been a lot of shorts seeking cover. The Barometer went from the low range of fairvalue to the high range of fairvalue. I am still happy that I sold my last bought step buy in my equity ballast sleeve as the profits covered the losses I had from my first two step buys. With today's gains my spiffs are now in the money. Who would have thought this throwback rally of sorts would have the run, thus far, that it has had? Certainly, not me if you have been reading my post. Let's just hope it keeps going inspite of the headwinds it might soon meet. Thanks for stopping by and reading. Old_Skeet
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 23:00:51 GMT
"Who would have thought this throwback rally of sorts would have the run, thus far, that it has had? " See Nov 1 ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/43353) = "You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ." |
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