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Post by FD1000 on May 22, 2023 14:15:46 GMT
QQQ and SPY "lost" nothing in 2022. Yes the value dropped but those that owned them for many prior years lost nothing. My value is less than it used to be but I have lost nothing. We have discussed the above many times. Your portfolio is worth what you have now, and its performance until now. Otherwise, if you have a portfolio that exists for 60 years, you never had a loss, the portfolio performance never matters, and you can retire any time. If you wanted to retire by the end of 2008, but your portfolio shrunk by 25%, you will have to wait several years to be even. Similar to that happened in 2022. Current portfolio size and performance always matters, unless you have a big portfolio that can easily covers the expenses. So, do you think it's better to make 5+% in 2022, or lose 10%? looks obvious.
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Post by Chahta on May 22, 2023 15:33:34 GMT
I have a bunch of shares sitting in accounts. Sometimes they give me dividends or interest or capital gains. Sometimes I take capital gains.
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Post by uncleharley on May 24, 2023 16:26:25 GMT
Y'all have about 90 minutes to buy the dip.
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Post by Chahta on May 24, 2023 16:36:39 GMT
Y'all have about 90 minutes to buy the dip. I’ve been all in since the beginning of the year. Not much more I can do.
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Post by FD1000 on May 25, 2023 12:27:35 GMT
Looks to me that 1) The big tech rally is still on and it's very concentrated. 2) Real Interest rates are keep going up. See ( www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us) 3) China faces a new Covid wave that could peak at 65 million cases a week( link). 4) Even if item 3 is half true it could means supply chain problems + stubborn inflation and why interest rates are creeping up. 5) The debt ceiling is another BS politics. 4) A bit further, real estate could be in trouble ( www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/#crash) So, the easiest thing for me, you guessed it, is to be in MM that pays 0.4% monthly...and wait for the next bond uptrend. BTW, I thought that rates would stabilize (the Fed fund did) and bond fund would have a better risk/reward performance. My predictions were wrong about real performance, but my actions were right because they are based on the market and why I traded bond funds twice YTD, I'm out since April 13. Below is YTD chart of PIMIX(multi)...BND(US TOT bond Index)...ORNAX(HY Muni). All have similar patterns. Attachments:
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Post by colorado on May 25, 2023 12:50:51 GMT
From my perspective, 2023 does not make more sense. The impact of the debt ceiling details can be very problematic on the market, and especially on interest rates going forward. Government backed assets are where I have chosen to reside, until I can sort out the longer term impact of the debt ceiling solution. Hopefully it will be ultimately viewed as an artificial political crisis, but it is hard to look at the current set of events and have any certainty in the results
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Post by mnfish on May 25, 2023 12:59:26 GMT
Looks to me that 1) The big tech rally is still on and it's very concentrated. YTD QQQ is up 25% and 5 stocks are up an avg of 77% - NVDA +170%, META +100%, AAPL +37%, MSFT +35%, GOOGL +40%
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Post by uncleharley on May 25, 2023 13:53:11 GMT
NVDA is carrying the market this morning.
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Post by FD1000 on May 25, 2023 19:48:15 GMT
From my perspective, 2023 does not make more sense. The impact of the debt ceiling details can be very problematic on the market, and especially on interest rates going forward. Government backed assets are where I have chosen to reside, until I can sort out the longer term impact of the debt ceiling solution. Hopefully it will be ultimately viewed as an artificial political crisis, but it is hard to look at the current set of events and have any certainty in the results In 2023, the market, AKA SPY is already up 9%...BND(Bond index) is up 1.5 and will be higher by year end. In 2022...SPY lost 18%...BND lost 13% The numbers prove my point.
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Post by colorado on May 25, 2023 21:25:21 GMT
From my perspective, 2023 does not make more sense. The impact of the debt ceiling details can be very problematic on the market, and especially on interest rates going forward. Government backed assets are where I have chosen to reside, until I can sort out the longer term impact of the debt ceiling solution. Hopefully it will be ultimately viewed as an artificial political crisis, but it is hard to look at the current set of events and have any certainty in the results In 2023, the market, AKA SPY is already up 9%...BND(Bond index) is up 1.5 and will be higher by year end. In 2022...SPY lost 18%...BND lost 13% The numbers prove my point. Those market percentages could go away in a blink of an eye, if we default. There are historical examples where the second half of a year, produces opposite results than the first half. Your numbers don't prove anything for the remainder of the year.
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Post by FD1000 on May 25, 2023 22:30:42 GMT
In 2023, the market, AKA SPY is already up 9%...BND(Bond index) is up 1.5 and will be higher by year end. In 2022...SPY lost 18%...BND lost 13% The numbers prove my point. Those market percentages could go away in a blink of an eye, if we default. There are historical examples where the second half of a year, produces opposite results than the first half. Your numbers don't prove anything for the remainder of the year. Or the market can go up. So far 2023 is a better year. The key is to invest based on markets and not predictions.
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Post by colorado on May 25, 2023 22:48:07 GMT
Those market percentages could go away in a blink of an eye, if we default. There are historical examples where the second half of a year, produces opposite results than the first half. Your numbers don't prove anything for the remainder of the year. Or the market can go up. So far 2023 is a better year. I sincerely hope you are right, but if we default, there is a reason that is described as catastrophic, and highly unlikely anyone would care, or remember, that the first half of 2023 was positive.
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Post by archer on May 25, 2023 22:54:17 GMT
There is no proof of anything with the markets. All we have is past data. There is nothing that can be done to assure any target outcome. To put weight on such a view leaves any strategy or discussions of the same pointless. I bumped my head and it hurt. There is no proof that it will hurt next time, but I do see a trend.
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Post by FD1000 on May 26, 2023 1:15:52 GMT
Or the market can go up. So far 2023 is a better year. I sincerely hope you are right, but if we default, there is a reason that is described as catastrophic, and highly unlikely anyone would care, or remember, that the first half of 2023 was positive. You are correct, but we will not for long term...because it catastrophic. Over the years we had much bigger worries, the 2 meltdowns during 2000-2010. During 2018-2022, we had 3 bear markets. So, I have a questions for you: did you sell everything? when are you coming back, at what %? My history and how I invest is documented ( here). I did pretty good since the start and since 2018 starting retirement. I'm not worried. A typical Joe investor should own several funds, no more than 5, use mainly indexes and hardly trade, no matter of any predictions because most investors and "experts" can't predict the future.
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Post by FD1000 on May 26, 2023 1:21:55 GMT
There is no proof of anything with the markets. All we have is past data. There is nothing that can be done to assure any target outcome. To put weight on such a view leaves any strategy or discussions of the same pointless. I bumped my head and it hurt. There is no proof that it will hurt next time, but I do see a trend. My proof is my system and performance since 1995. I know, you heard it many times. Avoiding the last 3 bear markets since 2018 and joining most of the upside was a good proof. There is no guarantee ever. We can take a very low risk until death because our portfolio is big enough. Even if I just match the inflation, we have enough. My comments on this thread are for investors who believe that someone can do a decent job reading markets and how to trade it. It may help someone, or you may think it doesn't make sense.
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Post by saratoga on May 26, 2023 2:26:26 GMT
Y'all have about 90 minutes to buy the dip. I did nibble a bit on Tuesday and on Wednesday. But It is hard to buy the dip by much when you lack trust.
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Post by Chahta on May 26, 2023 3:06:40 GMT
There is no proof of anything with the markets. All we have is past data. There is nothing that can be done to assure any target outcome. To put weight on such a view leaves any strategy or discussions of the same pointless. I bumped my head and it hurt. There is no proof that it will hurt next time, but I do see a trend. I get your point. But if you study the "3-line break" and fund actions, it can be close to real time. I'm not suggesting to use it or it is infallible, but maybe take a look and follow it for a while. I am sure there are others to follow as well.
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Post by archer on May 26, 2023 5:18:47 GMT
FD1000, Chahta, I agree with you both, and what I meant to convey in my post. While there is not a 100% guarantee, we can learn from past and present market activity and see likely outcomes for the future. And, I love that 3 line break. I thank FD from years ago on that one. :-)
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Post by mnfish on May 26, 2023 11:59:02 GMT
From one article about bear market stages Stage 2: The Reversion Bounce This stage occurs after a new low is made and the rebound actually holds its ground. (Oct 2022 - SP500 3,583)After so many bottom attempts, tired bulls aren’t convinced or ready to jump in. The market stabilizes and miraculously the bounces continue to hold their gains. Buying becomes more robust as the sell-offs are absorbed by dip buyers. The stock market begrudgingly grinds higher. Eventually, the bulls rejoice and regain their muster and chase entries willing to pay up for a steady rally as they believe the bottom is finally in. Every wave of selling hits a higher floor, (10/31/22 - 3,770 12/26/22 - 3,839 3/6/23 - 3,861) which motivates buyers to get in before the last train leaves the station for higher ground. From one article about bull markets The Scepticism Phase You would have heard in the press or some experts saying that the market is climbing the Wall of Worry. In this phase while the news stops being negative but investors in general are still not convinced about the market. Market participants look at earnings based measures like P/E or EV/EBIDTA and buy them only when they look attractive. The short term technical trends become positive but the tendency is to trade as the volatility is still high. The Optimism Phase During this phase, negative sentiment starts to reduce and typically the economic outlook starts improving and news-flow becomes positive. This phase can be long lasting, and also sees a broader participation of investors and of stocks. The trend following technical analysts do very well. uncleharleyVolatility comes down and buying on dips becomes a very profitable and easy to follow strategy. VIX has been in a steady decline since Oct 22Investors start justifying valuation through measures like PE to Growth, Relative valuations, Sum of parts as the bull market matures.
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Post by FD1000 on May 26, 2023 12:24:48 GMT
From one article about bear market stages Stage 2: The Reversion Bounce This stage occurs after a new low is made and the rebound actually holds its ground. (Oct 2022 - SP500 3,583)After so many bottom attempts, tired bulls aren’t convinced or ready to jump in. The market stabilizes and miraculously the bounces continue to hold their gains. Buying becomes more robust as the sell-offs are absorbed by dip buyers. The stock market begrudgingly grinds higher. Eventually, the bulls rejoice and regain their muster and chase entries willing to pay up for a steady rally as they believe the bottom is finally in. Every wave of selling hits a higher floor, (10/31/22 - 3,770 12/26/22 - 3,839 3/6/23 - 3,861) which motivates buyers to get in before the last train leaves the station for higher ground. From one article about bull markets The Scepticism Phase You would have heard in the press or some experts saying that the market is climbing the Wall of Worry. In this phase while the news stops being negative but investors in general are still not convinced about the market. Market participants look at earnings based measures like P/E or EV/EBIDTA and buy them only when they look attractive. The short term technical trends become positive but the tendency is to trade as the volatility is still high. The Optimism Phase During this phase, negative sentiment starts to reduce and typically the economic outlook starts improving and news-flow becomes positive. This phase can be long lasting, and also sees a broader participation of investors and of stocks. The trend following technical analysts do very well. uncleharley Volatility comes down and buying on dips becomes a very profitable and easy to follow strategy. VIX has been in a steady decline since Oct 22Investors start justifying valuation through measures like PE to Growth, Relative valuations, Sum of parts as the bull market matures. I don't have a clue what is the current phase + and what to do (enter/exit trades). The biggest problem is the fact that the "experts" don't have a clue too. You listen to 10 of them and their opinions are different. Uptrends are easier.
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Post by Fearchar on May 26, 2023 12:42:50 GMT
The challenge is that nobody really knows if the FED will mess up or not. They usually do, but that doesn't mean they will this time.
As always, there are both pro's can con's.
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Post by FD1000 on May 26, 2023 13:08:17 GMT
The challenge is that nobody really knows if the FED will mess up or not. They usually do, but that doesn't mean they will this time. As always, there are both pro's can con's. The way I deal with that is looking at big picture + charts/uptrend. Big picture: I have only 2 options. High risk=stay out. "Normal"=stay in. We are in "normal". This means disregard all opinions, the Fed and all others. Only charts/uptrend matters. Charts: Stocks QQQ+SPY vs SCHD. Easy choice = QQQ+SPY Bonds: see the chart. Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on May 26, 2023 14:36:55 GMT
2023 made a lot of sense to me. Here is info I sent to my daughter, who has 85% of her large IRA in this holding, FSPTX, Fido Select Technology Fund...and it is my largest fund holding:
-----------------------------------
Message to Daughter three: (Percent below is percent of portfolio the holding represents). Very pleased with this set of holdings for you and me, owned past three decades. Note global foundries is the chip maker 5 miles from our NY home. Go Nvidia! Top ten holdings: % Portfolio Weight. This is my current AI play.
NAV /23.94
1-Day Return
+4.09%
Total Assets 9.3 Bil
Apple Inc 19.76% Feb 28, 2002 1,872,019,005 0.00 23.77 29.07
Technology Microsoft Corp 16.27% Apr 30, 2015 1,540,959,464 0.00 25.16 29.50
Technology NVIDIA Corp 9.69% Jul 31, 2016 918,073,460 3.49% Increase 123.84 84.03
Technology Mastercard Inc Class A 4.21 Dec 31, 2018 398,471,797 17.64% Decrease 7.95 30.12
Financial Services NXP Semiconductors NV 4.04 May 31, 2019 382,930,515 0.00 -5.28 12.94
Technology Marvell Technology Inc 4.00 Dec 31, 2014 379,202,954 4.00% Increase -7.88 30.58
Technology Salesforce Inc 3.44 Aug 31, 2006 326,191,195 9.62% Increase 31.48 29.41
Technology Cisco Systems Inc 3.36 Jan 31, 2022 318,149,466 0.00 14.91 12.14
Technology ON Semiconductor Corp 3.22 Jul 31, 2020 305,007,701 2.8% Decrease 45.80 17.42
Technology GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc 2.6
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Post by FD1000 on May 26, 2023 22:30:36 GMT
2023 made a lot of sense to me. Here is info I sent to my daughter, who has 85% of her large IRA in this holding, FSPTX, Fido Select Technology Fund...and it is my largest fund holding: Congrats. What % of your portfolio is in the above fund?
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Post by colorado on May 27, 2023 13:01:16 GMT
2023 made a lot of sense to me. Here is info I sent to my daughter, who has 85% of her large IRA in this holding, FSPTX, Fido Select Technology Fund...and it is my largest fund holding: ----------------------------------- I would also be interested in knowing what percentage of your total portfolio is represented by FSPTX. I am unable to fully understand the extent of portfolio risk/reward for you and your portfolio, using terminology of largest fund holding. Since your user name is retired48, that would be particularly helpful to older investors concerned with current risk in this market. For disclosure equality, I acknowledge that SNOXX is my largest fund holding in my portfolio, representing 1.2% of my portfolio.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 27, 2023 15:09:28 GMT
colorado ,...I get no symbol/fund name for SNOXX...typo error? And from your post, do I conclude you are an "older investor"? Retired? Do you own mostly individual stocks? Lastly, does your soc. security income, any pension, any annuities, AND PORTFOLIO ANNUAL DIVIDENDS equal or exceed your annual spending needs? TIA R48
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Post by FD1000 on May 27, 2023 15:12:24 GMT
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Post by colorado on May 27, 2023 17:20:02 GMT
colorado ,...I get no symbol/fund name for SNOXX...typo error? And from your post, do I conclude you are an "older investor"? Retired? Do you own mostly individual stocks? Lastly, does your soc. security income, any pension, any annuities, AND PORTFOLIO ANNUAL DIVIDENDS equal or exceed your annual spending needs? TIA R48 I do not choose to divulge that much personal financial information on this forum. I did not ask you to divulge that much personal financial information on this forum. You made a statement about your "largest holding" and I was simply seeking a better perspective of that statement. Since I asked you for that information, it seemed a respectful gesture to provide that same information to you about my portfolio. Ignore my request if you wish. Regarding SNOXX, it is a Schwab Treasury Money Market Fund--the symbol SNOXX is accurate and correct
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Post by retiredat48 on May 27, 2023 21:36:50 GMT
colorado,...fair enough. I thought I would target my answer more toward your actual situation if you desired. Not divulging is fine. My past forte was in offering portfolio reviews pro bono, so I simply made the offer. Will reply to your request later. R48
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Post by mnfish on May 30, 2023 11:47:11 GMT
There is no proof of anything with the markets. All we have is past data. There is nothing that can be done to assure any target outcome. To put weight on such a view leaves any strategy or discussions of the same pointless. I bumped my head and it hurt. There is no proof that it will hurt next time, but I do see a trend. My proof is my system and performance since 1995. I know, you heard it many times. Avoiding the last 3 bear markets since 2018 and joining most of the upside was a good proof. There is no guarantee ever. We can take a very low risk until death because our portfolio is big enough. Even if I just match the inflation, we have enough. My comments on this thread are for investors who believe that someone can do a decent job reading markets and how to trade it. It may help someone, or you may think it doesn't make sense. A 24-year-old stock trader who made over $8 million in 2 years shares the 4 indicators he uses as his guides to buy and sell- First is volume-weighted average price (VWAP) - The next indicator is linear regression - The next indicator is volume - Finally, he keeps his eye on the support and resistance lines - "There's this acronym: KISS, keep it simple stupid. I don't think people need super fancy indicators to make money trading. I'm just using basic trend lines, support, resistance, volume, and those are all my indicators," Kellogg said. "I think if you overcomplicate the indicators, it will actually throw off your trading because then you're trading more on the indicators than the actual price action." - His tax returns, viewed by Insider, showed that he reported over $8 million in gains from day trading in 2020 and 2021. His returns gained momentum in 2020 when he had a total income of $1.6 million. In 2021, that amount grew to a total income of $6.5 million. He started with $7,500
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