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Post by FD1000 on Mar 3, 2022 0:18:31 GMT
The following are several of my thoughts in no particular order that I have for awhile.
* Stocks: have been going down for a couple of months...
YTD: VOOV(value) is doing better (-2.7%) than others, easily beating the SP500+Growth+SC.
EM+VXUS(international) are doing a bit better than US but when US LC value are doing great with lower SD(volatility), why would I look anywhere else? There are other good value funds with positive YTD, see (thread).
But, stocks are not doing well anyway
* Bonds: YTD: the 10 year treasury went from 1.5 to over 2% and withing several days back to 1.7. Almost all bond funds are not doing well, YTD.
* Volatility is up and stays up. Stocks volatility is up, but prices are mostly down. Bond rates are also volatile, many times daily.
* T/A: I check my charts and I don't see any clear up direction. There are more indicators.
* Commodities: are exploding up. No need to break it up and guess, why not use a simple index such as PDBC or a fund like VCMDX?
* War: I read so many comments but it looks simple to me. Putin, the bad guy is not stopping, why would he? It's not the first time he has done it. Will the Ukraine people stop him? Are you serious? Putin didn't even start plan B. Unfortunately, a lot more people will get killed. No other country is going to fight, and it shouldn't. Sanctions will not stop Putin but Russians will suffer much longer, that's what dictators do. One of the best options to hurt Putin is to stop buying oil, but the west still buys it, while the USA could increase oil production since months ago. Just hypocrisy. There is no way to know the limits of this war.
The war caused another big spike in commodities.
* The Fed: has a complicated job, inflation is up sharply and stayed there for a while. Salaries are up too. Inflation should slow down purchases at some point, but higher Commodities add to the inflation. The Fed must raise rates, it already committed to it. Raising too slow isn't enough, raising fast and you may kill the economy. The last several weeks/months added to the confusion and volatility. If the Fed is basing their action on the data, it got more complicated.
Raising rates while inflation is high, stocks are volatile, in the middle of war is another problem.
* Action: I sold 99+% a while ago. I even sold my best fund YTD, VCMDX. If the above gets better, then stocks will get better and Commodities must lose money after a big spike. Most bonds will lose money. I don't believe in diversification. I want to hold only funds that go up. I don't want to make money in one category and lose on the other. Stocks may turn up this or next week, after 10+% down, chances are better now. As a retiree who has enough, I can be out 2,3,4 (maybe more) weeks. This war is not just another war, it can get complicated fast if someone push the wrong button. As usual, if I see a solid uptrend, I will be in very fast and/or a quick trade based on T/A.
I already bought my flights to the west for a 2-week vacation in May. That's a great way to forget the markets and enjoy life. Flying abroad will have to wait a bit longer.
What should you do? I don't have a clue, you have your own goals. MOST SHOULD DO HARDLY ANYTHING, AND STAY WITHING THEIR AA, BASED ON THEIR GOALS.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 3, 2022 0:46:23 GMT
FD1000, good post! I am almost there with you. Where I differ, I do not think the Fed could raise ST rates much... maybe a couple of 25bps hikes - and something else will stop the Fed in their tracks. I am bullish on bonds, and bearish on stocks. Commodities is the flavor of the month, in my opinion. All the best!
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 3, 2022 0:55:30 GMT
FD1000 , good post! I am almost there with you. Where I differ, I do not think the Fed could raise ST rates much... maybe a couple of 25bps hikes - and something else will stop the Fed in their tracks. I am bullish on bonds, and bearish on stocks. Commodities is the flavor of the month, in my opinion. All the best! I think the Fed must raise rates to about 1% to maintain their credibility, pause, and make adjustments later. I'm not bullish on common high-rates bonds. At some point, my "special" bond funds will start doing better...and I found new ones  If I was younger, and invested 100% in risky stuff as I used to be, I can find 3-5 funds that have done well YTD. Commodities would definitely be at 30+%. Buffett rule:"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing" |
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Post by Chahta on Mar 3, 2022 1:44:17 GMT
FD1000 , good post! I am almost there with you. Where I differ, I do not think the Fed could raise ST rates much... maybe a couple of 25bps hikes - and something else will stop the Fed in their tracks. I am bullish on bonds, and bearish on stocks. Commodities is the flavor of the month, in my opinion. All the best! I think the Fed must raise rates to about 1% to maintain their credibility, pause, and make adjustments later. I'm not bullish on common high-rates bonds. At some point, my "special" bond funds will start doing better...and I found new ones If I was younger, and invested 100% in risky stuff as I used to be, I can find 3-5 funds that have done well YTD. Commodities would definitely be at 30+%. Buffett rule:"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing" It’s more than credibility at stake. Inflation is a real problem here and is going to get worse. Energy is going to be an issue, adding to inflation. I don’t know if 1% will be enough to kill inflation but eventually the fed will kill the market. The St. Louis member, Bullard, sees core inflation at 3.5% by year end. And that does not include energy and food. Who talks about Covid anymore? Are we getting a fourth shot? This inflation is self-inflicted by a government that has no clue so it will get worse. |
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Post by gman57 on Mar 3, 2022 3:14:07 GMT
I think it's slowing down all by itself. Once gas gets to $4 it will slow down more. Just like last time, instead of just jumping in their cars and going someplace when gas gets to $4 people start to think how much is this trip going to cost. Maybe the oil companies learned their lesson,,, if they keep gas just under $4 I would say yes.
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 3, 2022 12:23:39 GMT
The cost of gas has slowed old skeet down. When I do go out and about I drive my car rather than my Jeep since it gets better fuel milage.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 3, 2022 12:45:09 GMT
I think the Fed must raise rates to about 1% to maintain their credibility, pause, and make adjustments later. I'm not bullish on common high-rates bonds. At some point, my "special" bond funds will start doing better...and I found new ones If I was younger, and invested 100% in risky stuff as I used to be, I can find 3-5 funds that have done well YTD. Commodities would definitely be at 30+%. Buffett rule:"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing" It’s more than credibility at stake. Inflation is a real problem here and is going to get worse. Energy is going to be an issue, adding to inflation. I don’t know if 1% will be enough to kill inflation but eventually the fed will kill the market. The St. Louis member, Bullard, sees core inflation at 3.5% by year end. And that does not include energy and food. Who talks about Covid anymore? Are we getting a fourth shot? This inflation is self-inflicted by a government that has no clue so it will get worse. True, but the Fed has been behind the 8th ball all along. I think the window of opportunity to act is closing fast due to rapidly slowing US economy to 0% GDP growth in Q1 2022. The dreaded "stagflation" is what would likely make the Fed stop in their tracks after one or two rate hikes. |
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Post by richardsok on Mar 3, 2022 13:57:48 GMT
The cost of gas has slowed old skeet down. When I do go out and about I drive my car rather than my Jeep since it gets better fuel milage. Yeah. I just sold my 3.7 liter Infiniti G37 convertible and its $50 fill-ups. Interesting; I got a better price than I expected. It was a beast and I've become accustomed to sitting up a bit higher in small SUVs than down so low to the road. Better visibility and easier entry/exit for these ol' bones. Narrowed my next car down to two choices: a MB GLA250 (for ego and vanity) or a Subaru Crosstrek 2.5 (go anywhere, efficient, sensible)? Confession: I do want to flaunt it a bit -- a stock trader's little vice -- but am horrified at the thought of banging up a MB on country dirt roads looking for fly fishing spots. Might be my last personal car. |
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Post by gman57 on Mar 4, 2022 14:02:39 GMT
Narrowed my next car down to two choices: a MB GLA250 (for ego and vanity) or a Subaru Crosstrek 2.5 (go anywhere, efficient, sensible)? Confession: I do want to flaunt it a bit -- a stock trader's little vice -- but am horrified at the thought of banging up a MB on country dirt roads looking for fly fishing spots. Might be my last personal car. Go for it.... after the first/second scratch... it changes to ...eh ..no big deal. Then once you don't care anymore about a little ding you really start to enjoy it. |
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 4, 2022 22:54:02 GMT
According to Consumer Reports, the only unbiased source, MB GLA has one of the worse reliability just like most MB vehicles.
If you are looking for a mid-size SUV, the following are the best choices
1) Subaru Forester
2) Mazda CX-5
3) Honda CR-V
4) Subaru Crosstrek
5) Kia Sportage
Reliability: Mazda+Kia=excellent, the rest=above average
Road test: Forester is above the rest at 90, the rest are at 78-82
For a 3-row SUV: Kia Telluride got an overall score of 97, which is one of the best overall for all vehicles for decades.
This is the way I have been buying vehicles for decades. This is the best/risk reward option, the rest is just noise (mmm...showoff).
Just to keep up with this thread, it doesn't make sense to buy German vehicles because they can't compete on price + reliability.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 23:23:49 GMT
I also slightly shifted to US LC value and blend and reduced international. But I recently read on these forums that PRWCX Rockstar Manager moved from value to growth.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 4, 2022 23:43:28 GMT
I also slightly shifted to US LC value and blend and reduced international. But I recently read on these forums that PRWCX Rockstar Manager moved from value to growth. Tricky. I'm not sure if that's correct. PRWCX with over 51 billions must own some of the biggest high-tech. What is MSFT growth or value? Below is PRWCX sectors from 12/31/2021, over 2 months ago. Attachments:
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Post by gman57 on Mar 5, 2022 0:52:55 GMT
According to Consumer Reports, the only unbiased source, MB GLA has one of the worse reliability just like most MB vehicles. If you are looking for a mid-size SUV, the following are the best choices 1) Subaru Forester 2) Mazda CX-5 3) Honda CR-V 4) Subaru Crosstrek 5) Kia Sportage Reliability: Mazda+Kia=excellent, the rest=above average Road test: Forester is above the rest at 90, the rest are at 78-82 For a 3-row SUV: Kia Telluride got an overall score of 97, which is one of the best overall for all vehicles for decades. This is the way I have been buying vehicles for decades. This is the best/risk reward option, the rest is just noise (mmm...showoff). Just to keep up with this thread, it doesn't make sense to buy German vehicles because they can't compete on price + reliability. That's the difference between you and many people. You look at everything with dollar signs in your brain. Some people like X because they like X and don't give a crap what it costs. If you knew the difference between driving a performance car like a Porsche compared to a Honda Accord maybe you'd understand. I'm not knocking your thriftiness because that's who you are but realize that for many people the experience (showoff?) is more important than the money. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 3:19:41 GMT
What do you think of Porsche Taycan or Tesla model S instead?
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Post by richardsok on Mar 5, 2022 4:30:02 GMT
As I take long trips (sometimes up into mountains for fishing) from time to time, can't imagine owning a Tesla.
Taycan is gorgeous. I seriously looked at 911s last year, but can't get past the low-to-the ground driving position and would be impossible to even THINK of putting one on a dirt road.
From my readings, most of the GL250 problems seem come from the early 2015 model year -- an era I wasn't considering. 0-60 in 6.8sec and I just like the LOOK of the darn thing. Only exception is that infotainment screen which, like many other cars, juts up above the dash. Don't like it. Don't want to get used to it.
Always liked the look and high ground clearance of the Crosstrek, but its 0-60 has been reliably timed at about two weeks. Can't abide such foot-dragging. However in 2021 it offers an upgraded 2.5 motor bringing the 0-60 down to 7.5sec which, for me, is passable. Well, barely. So I'm considering.
The CX-30 0-60 is 7.8. Meh. Don't like its aggressive styling. Ditto most Toyotas. Japan has the best engineers in the world -- but I wish they'd take their designers aside for a talk about good taste.
I had two treacherous-girlfriend experiences in my early 20s. Don't need to reprise the experience with a Range Rover. Cadillac makes me feel like my father. Forget it.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 5, 2022 5:05:09 GMT
According to Consumer Reports, the only unbiased source, MB GLA has one of the worse reliability just like most MB vehicles. If you are looking for a mid-size SUV, the following are the best choices 1) Subaru Forester 2) Mazda CX-5 3) Honda CR-V 4) Subaru Crosstrek 5) Kia Sportage Reliability: Mazda+Kia=excellent, the rest=above average Road test: Forester is above the rest at 90, the rest are at 78-82 For a 3-row SUV: Kia Telluride got an overall score of 97, which is one of the best overall for all vehicles for decades. This is the way I have been buying vehicles for decades. This is the best/risk reward option, the rest is just noise (mmm...showoff). Just to keep up with this thread, it doesn't make sense to buy German vehicles because they can't compete on price + reliability. That's the difference between you and many people. You look at everything with dollar signs in your brain. Some people like X because they like X and don't give a crap what it costs. If you knew the difference between driving a performance car like a Porsche compared to a Honda Accord maybe you'd understand. I'm not knocking your thriftiness because that's who you are but realize that for many people the experience (showoff?) is more important than the money. It's nothing about thriftiness, it's about buying something I can use without problems for years that does everything pretty well. I drove MB, BMW up to $70-80K(before the last 2 years) and I couldn't find anything exciting, nada. The most exciting was driving a motorcycle, and it was under $10K, but since I want to live longer, I wouldn't do it. The only exciting vehicle I drove was Tesla Y, under $60K. Better acceleration, driving experience, easy and intuitive than the Germans and much cheaper. I wouldn't buy an EV vehicle. Toyota perfected Hybrid and it costs only $2K (maybe $3) more. You get it back withing 4-5 years. Hybrid is the best solution for the next several years. You say it's experience, I say it's a showoff. I tested it. I asked friends that drive these expensive vehicles if they are willing to change their vehicle tag to Yugo just for several months, after all, they claim, it's all about the experience, they all refused. I have no issue doing that. I actually changed their mind too, some of them drive Lexus now instead, who wants to spend lots of money fixing their vehicles. Just 2 years ago, my BIL that always used to buy an expensive BMW, decided to buy a loaded Camry, he now keeps telling me, he can't believe how stupid he was for decades and yes, he admits it was all a showoff. The key, as always, what you can accomplish for the average user, not the emotional. I learned from Chang that it's only several thousand to buy a great bike vs not so great, but why on earth would you spend (double+) and get only 20% more? Sometimes it gets ridiculous, CR rates the 3-row Telluride by far the best SUV, overall at 97 and driving test also at 97. Why would you pay much more for a vehicle with similar size and specs and get less? That's not emotional, it's common sense. Looks to me, the vehicle marketing machine did a phenomenal job convincing buyers, vehicles must be emotional. The most annoying thing is when my friends drive their expensive Audi, they drive so slow. Why would you spend $80+K and hardly do anything? ======== Rich, CR looks at vehicles problems in the last several years. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2022 6:23:49 GMT
To continue this OT after an excellent OP: Come on, folks .... let's be realistic here We need to not only be thinking electric for our next vehicle but, look in the mirror and be honest with your self, we perhaps need to be thinking about a  --- Frank |
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Post by Mustang on Mar 5, 2022 11:43:56 GMT
I drive a supercharged 2000 Mustang that runs mid-12s in the quarter. My second car is a 2003 Corvette convertible that runs a flat 13 in the quarter. (The time slips don't give 0-60 numbers.) They both get approximately 20 miles per gallon. My wife's Toyota Highlander gets around 24 mpg. (I've never run it on the drag strip.)
As you might suspect the Mustang is highly modified. Not only the engine but also the exhaust, brakes, suspension, gears, axles, etc. Even the frame has been stiffened with subframe connectors. Since it is a daily driver I didn't lower the car and I used a centrifugal supercharger instead of a twin screw. A centrifugal supercharger doesn't add a lot of boost until around 3500 rpm so the mods didn't affect gas mileage much. I have driven muscle cars my entire life. This is probably the last one I will ever own. The modifications were made 17 years ago and the car now has 215,000 miles on it.
I think it is foolish to buy a new car just for gas mileage. Here is why. The Mustang uses 93 octane fuel. I'm already paying more than $4 per gallon so let's say gas goes up to $5 per gallon. A new car costs $40,000 or more. A slightly used car $30,000. At $5 per gallon $30,000 will buy 6,000 gallons of gas. That's 120,000 miles. Since I retired I might drive 6,000 miles per year.
I think you need other reasons to buy a new car than gas mileage. Repairs are a valid reason. Some repairs can be very expensive. According to a loan calculator a $30,000 car loan will have $566 monthly payments. A $600 repair is a little more than one car payment. An $1,800 repair little more than 3 payments. That is why I get cars fixed instead of buying new ones.
Cars won't last forever but routine maintenance will keep them going a long time. The Highlander has 285,000 miles on it. It uses less than a quart of oil between oil changes. It has no rust and the interior is clean showing hardly any wear. It is without a doubt one of the best built cars I have ever owned. If we replace it we are thinking of buying a Highlander hybrid. But going from 24 mpg to 36 mpg will not pay for it. Its a $40,000 car. Payments will be around $750 per month. We will probably drive it 18,000 miles per year. That's 750 gallons. At 36 mpg its 500 gallons, a savings of 250 gallons per year or 20.8 gallons per month. At $4 per gallon the savings is $83 per month. That won't make a $750 car payment.
It doesn't make sense to use gas mileage savings as a reason to buy a new car.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 5, 2022 13:06:38 GMT
Another reason to buy a new car is because you want to.
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Post by oldskeet on Mar 5, 2022 13:55:22 GMT
Hi Mustang, I am a car guy myself but in a different sense than you.
I just let my 1992 Jeep Cherokee Laredo go since it can now be tagged in NC as an antique auto being 30 years in age. It has been well kept and brought a good price as a few buyers had been seeking it for the past couple of years. As I told them, it was not for sale but make me an offer and something I'd think on. I am the second owner and have owned it for 21 years so a few more to own it want bother me. An offer came in that I accepted a few weeks ago. This now leaves me with a Jeep Commander and two cars. I was thinking of selling the other Jeep (as it has been sought after as well) and purchasing a new hybrid Highlander with tow package. My Jeep gets about 20 mpg, the cars a (V6/Aurora) gets about 32 and the (V8/Aurora) about 25 (all highway milage). All three are daily drivers when desired and both Aurora's have received car show awards.
Some say, to me, with your money I'd be driving late model vehicles. My answer ... Nice clean well maintained older vehicles is part of my tax revolt strategy. This is one of the reasons that I have not yet bought the Highlander ... high property taxes plus being retired I don't drive as much as I use to.
However, being a member of the Olds Club of America I enjoy the car shows and use to own a few classics myself.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 5, 2022 14:04:17 GMT
Why not start a new thread for the car guys?
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Post by Mustang on Mar 6, 2022 2:12:43 GMT
According to Consumer Reports, the only unbiased source, MB GLA has one of the worse reliability just like most MB vehicles. If you are looking for a mid-size SUV, the following are the best choices 1) Subaru Forester 2) Mazda CX-5 3) Honda CR-V 4) Subaru Crosstrek 5) Kia Sportage Reliability: Mazda+Kia=excellent, the rest=above average Road test: Forester is above the rest at 90, the rest are at 78-82 For a 3-row SUV: Kia Telluride got an overall score of 97, which is one of the best overall for all vehicles for decades. This is the way I have been buying vehicles for decades. This is the best/risk reward option, the rest is just noise (mmm...showoff). Just to keep up with this thread, it doesn't make sense to buy German vehicles because they can't compete on price + reliability. If we are off topic sorry but you were talking about cars earlier in this thread. |
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Post by johntaylor on Mar 6, 2022 15:00:22 GMT
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Post by richardsok on Mar 6, 2022 17:12:08 GMT
Absolutely right, john. The necessity for that device you're buying is just the reason I hate new cars. I don't NEED a push-button power hatch or frickin' "info-tainment" screen jutting up over the dashboard or power glide seats or power mirrors.... and I resent having to pay for them. Run-flat tires do seem a good idea, though, despite their trade-offs. They save a lot of weight and space in the trunk. Just looked at the Crosstrek websites from last year and saw the price started at about $25k -- but even used 2021s are $32- $35k today. Nuts. And no wonder my wife is gaga over the MB GLA250 we were looking at. I discovered 60% of its buyers are women -- and come to think of it, it did appear kinda cute & girly to me on second look. I read somewhere that SPEED is the only new pleasure discovered by modern man.... but reliability and simple good taste are important to me too. While shopping, my ancient 2001 CR-V seems better all the time. 147k on it. Purrs like a Swiss watch. The wife detests it. |
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Mar 6, 2022 17:58:53 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Mar 6, 2022 18:46:25 GMT
There was a Subaru engine a few years ago that burned oil. The dealer said to carry extra oil on board. Hope they got past that.
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Post by cactusjack on Mar 6, 2022 19:03:56 GMT
What? No love for Alfa Romeo? I had an Alfa ragtop when I was much younger and single. A joy to drive with the top down...had AAA on speed dial. Left me stranded more times than I can count.
Finally got older and smarter. In 1992 I bought a Lexus. A little boring to drive, but quick enough. Comfortable as can be. Absolutely bulletproof. My garage hasn't been without 1, 2, or 3 of them since.
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 6, 2022 22:01:12 GMT
I have a 1996 Cadillac! 165,000 miles. Bought 20 years ago for $6,000, with 40,000 miles.
But I now drive my wife's car. I gave her a choice four years ago that I would buy any car she wanted. After all the Mercedes, BMWs, Audi looking, she settled on a 2017 GENESIS G80, leased new with a start price of $49,000.
Buy back price was $25,000, 3 yr lease up April 2020 of COVID season. However, no new cars to lease or buy; dealer closed.
Genesis headqtrs agreed to extend lease six months, with my $500/month payments fully applied to reducing principal on my buyout cost. Came October, dealer wanted to add $900 in additional buyout costs. I objected and refused to turn car in. Genesis hdqtrs said I should get a best-and-final dealer offer. I did. No budging. (I hear this is common practice today). Genesis HDQTRS then offered to sell me the car for $900 BELOW my reduced buyback price. I jumped at the offer.
Then came the used car price boom. Sure glad I got the car at this low price. Not one thing wrong on the car in four years. Great performance, etc. A sports car if/when I want it. A luxury type car for my wife. Genesis G80 selected car-of-the-year by many publications. My Florida street has four black Genesis cars on it.
R48
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 7, 2022 21:56:38 GMT
As usual, the only thing that makes sense to me is investing based on what markets are telling me using uptrends and better categories/funds and disregard all the noise.
All/most of my ideas/posts are delayed by 2-3 weeks, no more real time. It's all about the big picture + narrower diversification.
I told you about
1) Value stocks in the beginning of January
2) Commodities in 1/20/22.
3) Sell everything last week
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 14, 2022 20:38:37 GMT
As usual, the only thing that makes sense to me is investing based on what markets are telling me using uptrends and better categories/funds and disregard all the noise. All/most of my ideas/posts are delayed by 2-3 weeks, no more real time. It's all about the big picture + narrower diversification. I told you about 1) Value stocks in the beginning of January 2) Commodities in 1/20/22. 3) Sell everything last week We are now a week later with no improvement, actually it's worse. 1) Rates are going up faster. 2) Stocks continue to go down. 3) Even Commodities are going down, and they are down over 10% in less than a week, as I expected and posted. 4) VIX went down to under 30, but it's back above 30. 5) Inflation is still high and the war is still going on. |
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