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Post by fishingrod on Jul 19, 2021 22:28:18 GMT
Hiccup, I am probably the most cynical person on this site. I still see inflation with a dubious view of the FED. Anyone can quote bygones, that is the crux of this issue. I used to do the same thing, but I finally realized any charts I post are History!! Bye, Bye. Gone, forever, never to be had again. Really quite useless in that context. I use them but not to look back but to look forward. The market may present an opportunity soon if one is patient to reallocate some monies. Where and when you allocate your monies depends on your own risk tolerance and other factors which one should know, depending on each one's situation.
We are really in need of @retiredlimoman Rest his Soul, He would give us a different view, which may be lacking.
Fishingrod
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 19, 2021 23:44:35 GMT
I have been using charts, especially uptrend for years and they worked really well for me. Charts are only one part of what I use. I'm with the Fed, inflation will be temporary and lower several months from now. Time will tell
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Post by fishingrod on Jul 20, 2021 1:09:11 GMT
One needs to turn the volume up!!
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Post by fishingrod on Jul 20, 2021 1:13:07 GMT
Kinda one of my ways to reflect my feelings about the economy.
One for the inflation debaters.
This one is for rhythmmethod and others for some enjoyment from some past performances.
Fishingrod
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Post by Karen on Jul 20, 2021 1:24:32 GMT
I like to be cynical. Why stocks went down today? because there were more sellers than buyers which is always true but the media have been saying it's because of covid...mmm...cases have been going up for weeks and tomorrow the market may go up again. Another good reason is the fact the market was up so a lot this year and it has to go down too. Being cynical is one thing. (Aside: Skeptical is a more admirable and productive trait.) But your comment about "more buyers than sellers" being the reason stocks went down today is sheer lunacy. Your comment is akin to someone saying the reason a given YOY % went up was because the numerator increased more than the denominator. Duh! During trading days when sellers outnumber buyers and the market is down (and whether you know it or not, that's not always the case - think price action), that would be the effect, NOT the cause. And whether you know it or not, COVID case numbers IS one of the causes of today's drop. Maybe you should consider limiting your comments to bonds?
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 20, 2021 1:48:58 GMT
Hi Karen ... somehow I've missed your prior posts. I will be keep an eye out for them in the future. You inadvertently swapped the nouns in the quotation. One thing I learned right away was the ignore button under Edit Profile and Privacy. It works wonderfully.
I was watching TV show the other night showcasing Japan for obvious reasons and I learned:
The chrysanthemum's yellow flower symbolises the sun and the light (immortality) in Japan. The Japanese have proclaimed the chrysanthemum as their national symbol, and celebrate the 'Festival of Happiness' every year in honour of the chrysanthemum.
Your flowers are very lovely.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 20, 2021 3:26:08 GMT
I like to be cynical. Why stocks went down today? because there were more sellers than buyers which is always true but the media have been saying it's because of covid...mmm...cases have been going up for weeks and tomorrow the market may go up again. Another good reason is the fact the market was up so a lot this year and it has to go down too. Being cynical is one thing. (Aside: Skeptical is a more admirable and productive trait.) But your comment about "more buyers than sellers" being the reason stocks went down today is sheer lunacy. Your comment is akin to someone saying the reason a given YOY % went up was because the numerator increased more than the denominator. Duh! During trading days when sellers outnumber buyers and the market is down (and whether you know it or not, that's not always the case - think price action), that would be the effect, NOT the cause. And whether you know it or not, COVID case numbers IS one of the causes of today's drop. Maybe you should consider limiting your comments to bonds? I agree, skeptical is better word. Lunacy? I'm "impressed" When markets go down, you can hear/read several reasons. Then the same thing happens again, and the market doesn't go down. If the reasons are true then they always have to be true. The reality is that stocks go up more times than down regardless of the reasons. All we have to see now how long your claim "COVID case numbers" will hold, after all, cases are going to rise in cold weather. I will remind you that later. We would love to see what are your thoughts about the markets and what to do.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 20, 2021 3:37:09 GMT
One needs to turn the volume up!!
I heard and read many interviews/opinions about inflation, and I still think it is transitional. 1) First point: Inflation is a rate of change. Prices can go up for a year at 5% but if they go up only at 0.2% monthly after that, inflation will drop. 2) Second point: when you compare the inflation to last year when the economy was is a bad situation, of course inflation is much higher. 3) We still have several bottlenecks, eventually, they will be resolved. The answer will be easier sevetal months from now.
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Post by liftlock on Jul 20, 2021 5:30:12 GMT
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Post by anitya on Jul 20, 2021 6:20:49 GMT
Kinda one of my ways to reflect my feelings about the economy.
One for the inflation debaters.
Just an FYI - Last Friday, I decided to explore M* Discuss and Fidelity Investor Community, as my second investment forum (to supplement Bing Bang). I checked M* Discuss over the weekend - the site was very unwieldy for me (must have been revised a few times since I left M* Discuss) - I spent sometime, tried the search function, and gave up. I am at Fidelity Investment Community now and wanted to check if Capecod was posting anything about CEFs. I ran into two thread from him. The first one is about inflation titled, "Rethinking-Inflation-and-Interest-Rate-Effects" is from beginning of June. When I saw that I thought about your above post. His thread is 3 pages long and shows there were 67 replies. You may know that he was a professional bond trader and as such, his comments may be worthy of your time. I am not planning to read it as I do not want to spend anymore time on that topic for the time being and also because his second thread might touch upon this topic. His second thread titled, "The Unexpected: Recession of '22?" was started two weeks ago. This thread has some 100+ replies. I might read this over a few days.
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Post by Chahta on Jul 20, 2021 12:05:01 GMT
I like to be cynical. Why stocks went down today? because there were more sellers than buyers which is always true but the media have been saying it's because of covid...mmm...cases have been going up for weeks and tomorrow the market may go up again. Another good reason is the fact the market was up so a lot this year and it has to go down too. Being cynical is one thing. (Aside: Skeptical is a more admirable and productive trait.) But your comment about "more buyers than sellers" being the reason stocks went down today is sheer lunacy. Your comment is akin to someone saying the reason a given YOY % went up was because the numerator increased more than the denominator. Duh! During trading days when sellers outnumber buyers and the market is down (and whether you know it or not, that's not always the case - think price action), that would be the effect, NOT the cause. And whether you know it or not, COVID case numbers IS one of the causes of today's drop. Maybe you should consider limiting your comments to bonds? The point is that markets do what they want. No one can explain the moves because if they could they would be fabulously wealthy. The talking heads have to forecast and rationalize market moves as that is how they make their living. When will the market correct next, please?
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Post by Chahta on Jul 20, 2021 12:07:26 GMT
Kinda one of my ways to reflect my feelings about the economy.
One for the inflation debaters.
This one is for rhythmmethod and others for some enjoyment from some past performances.
Fishingrod
I think that is my cousin dancing...
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 20, 2021 12:53:45 GMT
Being cynical is one thing. (Aside: Skeptical is a more admirable and productive trait.) But your comment about "more buyers than sellers" being the reason stocks went down today is sheer lunacy. Your comment is akin to someone saying the reason a given YOY % went up was because the numerator increased more than the denominator. Duh! During trading days when sellers outnumber buyers and the market is down (and whether you know it or not, that's not always the case - think price action), that would be the effect, NOT the cause. And whether you know it or not, COVID case numbers IS one of the causes of today's drop. Maybe you should consider limiting your comments to bonds? The point is that markets do what they want. No one can explain the moves because if they could they would be fabulously wealthy. The talking heads have to forecast and rationalize market moves as that is how they make their living. When will the market correct next, please? Bingo. The whole point of this thread from the beginning is to show that * Calling for market tops is a fool’s errand. * Taking a short position based on the above is a double fool’s errand because if you are wrong you lose twice. * Investing based on predictions is another fool’s errand. Many have been off by months and years. Investing based on what happened lately and current is more accurate, it can't be wrong too long. * If you want to be a trader then be a trader and be sure it has been working for you for years for real, just be honest with yourself. * The 24/7 media is always looking for an angle and to make up lots of noise. Noise isn't an investment plan. I can add * don't try to explain market moves, it's unpredictable. This is why I said more sellers than buyers = market going down. This outcome is always true, but you can't predict it. But, since it's an investment site we like to discuss it, but it doesn't mean you have to do much. If you want to do something, I have 2 points 1) Play the big picture in a simple way and see if it works for you. What is a big picture? value vs growth, US vs international, stocks vs bonds. 2) If you are a retiree and protecting your portfolio is very important, even more than performance, set a selling point based on %. In the past I set up 6% max loss for my stock/mod-allocation funds and 3% for my bond funds.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jul 20, 2021 14:16:15 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 20, 2021 20:11:46 GMT
Being cynical is one thing. (Aside: Skeptical is a more admirable and productive trait.) But your comment about "more buyers than sellers" being the reason stocks went down today is sheer lunacy. Your comment is akin to someone saying the reason a given YOY % went up was because the numerator increased more than the denominator. Duh! During trading days when sellers outnumber buyers and the market is down (and whether you know it or not, that's not always the case - think price action), that would be the effect, NOT the cause. And whether you know it or not, COVID case numbers IS one of the causes of today's drop. Maybe you should consider limiting your comments to bonds? I agree, skeptical is better word. Lunacy? I'm "impressed" When markets go down, you can hear/read several reasons. Then the same thing happens again, and the market doesn't go down. If the reasons are true then they always have to be true. The reality is that stocks go up more times than down regardless of the reasons. All we have to see now how long your claim "COVID case numbers" will hold, after all, cases are going to rise in cold weather. I will remind you that later.
We would love to see what are your thoughts about the markets and what to do. It didn't take long to prove my point. The SP500 was down yesterday over 1.5% and today recoup most of it back...nothing really changed, what happened to COVID case numbers? what are the reasons for that? Do you still believe it? Prices go up/down for 1,2,several reasons and different people make different decisions. The reasons tomorrow and next week/month can be different. The 24/7 media must stay a live and why they have to come up with something.
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 20, 2021 23:34:55 GMT
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bf22
Commander
Posts: 135
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Post by bf22 on Jul 20, 2021 23:48:04 GMT
I agree, skeptical is better word. Lunacy? I'm "impressed" When markets go down, you can hear/read several reasons. Then the same thing happens again, and the market doesn't go down. If the reasons are true then they always have to be true. The reality is that stocks go up more times than down regardless of the reasons. All we have to see now how long your claim "COVID case numbers" will hold, after all, cases are going to rise in cold weather. I will remind you that later.
We would love to see what are your thoughts about the markets and what to do. It didn't take long to prove my point. The SP500 was down yesterday over 1.5% and today recoup most of it back...nothing really changed, what happened to COVID case numbers? what are the reasons for that? Do you still believe it? Prices go up/down for 1,2,several reasons and different people make different decisions. The reasons tomorrow and next week/month can be different. The 24/7 media must stay a live and why they have to come up with something. I must have missed it - what was your point that was proven?
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 21, 2021 0:23:50 GMT
bf22 , Assuming you’re not joking, the three unknowns which includes market movements in the short run will forever be an unknown. Managing your portfolio in the short run based on what you think, saw in the news or speculate costs money long term. I started at DOW 750 and because of compounding, inflation and the drive to increase earnings through good times and bad look at the DOW now. Reinvesting all dividends adding new positions in well run companies and compounding made me well off in retirement not brilliant investing. After stagflation there was irrational exuberance followed by the tech bust, y2k, 9/11, the bank crisis now Covid interspersed with many minor corrections and all will be followed by many more. Long term, capital markets are on a upward trajectory because of population increases and increased demand for goods and services worldwide. Short term markets are speculative and more like betting then investing.
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Post by chang on Jul 21, 2021 0:59:36 GMT
I should have bought Monday's dip more heavily. I was spooked by the deterioration late last week, and thought it might be the start of something bad. (Which hasn't been ruled out, of course.) I am fortunate that an old GTC order got triggered. (I like having a GTC limit order in my account that I don't expect to fill, just to surprise me now and then.)
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bf22
Commander
Posts: 135
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Post by bf22 on Jul 21, 2021 4:11:07 GMT
bf22 , Assuming you’re not joking, the three unknowns which includes market movements in the short run will forever be an unknown. Managing your portfolio in the short run based on what you think, saw in the news or speculate costs money long term. I started at DOW 750 and because of compounding, inflation and the drive to increase earnings through good times and bad look at the DOW now. Reinvesting all dividends adding new positions in well run companies and compounding made me well off in retirement not brilliant investing. After stagflation there was irrational exuberance followed by the tech bust, y2k, 9/11, the bank crisis now Covid interspersed with many minor corrections and all will be followed by many more. Long term, capital markets are on a upward trajectory because of population increases and increased demand for goods and services worldwide. Short term markets are speculative and more like betting then investing. I fully agree with you, and I don't joke.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 21, 2021 10:48:08 GMT
It didn't take long to prove my point. The SP500 was down yesterday over 1.5% and today recoup most of it back...nothing really changed, what happened to COVID case numbers? what are the reasons for that? Do you still believe it? Prices go up/down for 1,2,several reasons and different people make different decisions. The reasons tomorrow and next week/month can be different. The 24/7 media must stay a live and why they have to come up with something. I must have missed it - what was your point that was proven? His point is that nothing can be predicted by anyone excepting him.
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Post by racqueteer on Jul 21, 2021 11:57:39 GMT
I must have missed it - what was your point that was proven? His point is that nothing can be predicted by anyone excepting him. Since I don't have an ax to grind, allow me to try:
His point is that actual PREDICTIONS are no better than guesses. Trying to "get ahead of things" is difficult at best. You either buy and hold solid choices, or be active; based on what's actually happening right now. Most people haven't the time, inclination, or temperament to do the latter. Of course, anything one DOES can be viewed as a 'prediction'; if only that things will continue; so, confusing point, perhaps.
I would posit a third possibility: While the unknown future will forever be unknown, the ODDS of a known outcome DO shift. I think that, in that regard, SOME 'prediction' might legitimately be undertaken. The real issue would then be the confidence level of the 'odds' data and the soundness of the logical conclusions drawn BASED on that data. So, two potential points of failure. The "reversion to the mean" principle would be an example of the third principle.
Edit: It occurs to me that FD is actually adopting the third principle, but he's using "The odds are that what is happening will continue short-term" viewpoint, and keeping a close watch for indications that the odds might be shifting.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 21, 2021 12:10:43 GMT
Being active, "based on what's actually happening right now", is predicting.
Obviously, no one is always right. But, for Investing, being right 60% of the time can be very profitable.
The issue is whether or not it's interesting and rewarding to consider various arguments and viewpoints. Or, to insist that it's all pointless.
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Post by racqueteer on Jul 21, 2021 12:29:52 GMT
Being active, "based on what's actually happening right now", is predicting. As I noted: "Of course, anything one DOES can be viewed as a 'prediction'; if only that things will continue; so, confusing point, perhaps."
So much of the bickering online derives from people who don't agree on word usage and/or meaning. An additional (but significant) fraction of that bickering derives from personal animosities which spill over - deservedly or otherwise. Everyone doesn't have to agree on substance; though agreeing on definition would definitely be helpful. Responding based on prior animosity, however, is seldom productive.
It may legitimately be stated that ALL investing is based on the prediction of future events, btw. Again, it's based on the perceived odds of a known outcome.
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Post by ignatz on Jul 21, 2021 12:46:07 GMT
The issue is whether or not it's interesting and rewarding to consider various arguments and viewpoints. Or, to insist that it's all pointless.
Arguments and viewpoints may be interesting. They may be intellectually rewarding in some sense (something to ponder, satisfying curiosity, boredom relief).
They are not financially rewarding if they don't directly drive decisions to buy or sell.
It seems to me that individual egos and confirmation bias tend to trump other considerations. Couple that with the anonymity of forums like this and you have a fine mess.
Pointless?? I'd guess that those who spend a thousand hours a year manicuring their portfolio do so largely because they are constitutionally unable to do otherwise. Why would anyone admit they would have been better off developing a plan to climb Scarlett Johansson's frame?
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 21, 2021 12:50:57 GMT
racqueteer , Game Theory. Even though there’s no such thing as a perpetual “hot hand” I’ve followed the current hot tech hand for years. It’s not confounding to me why my net worth has increased the last 30 years by being a heavy tech investor and being invested 100% in U.S. stocks. The current hot hand obvious to all. An era of U.S. innovation. Also markets don’t go up forever or stay down forever. Money is made in the markets 7 of 10 years with 3 years to invest and 7 years to take gains. Short term there is no known outcome. That is where future capital gains are stunted unless you have a lucky dart.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 21, 2021 12:51:25 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Jul 21, 2021 13:10:29 GMT
racqueteer , Game Theory. Even though there’s no such thing as a perpetual “hot hand” I’ve followed the current hot tech hand for years. It’s not confounding to me why my net worth has increased the last 30 years by being a heavy tech investor and being invested 100% in U.S. stocks. The current hot hand obvious to all. An era of U.S. innovation. Also markets don’t go up forever or stay down forever. Money is made in the markets 7 of 10 years with 3 years to invest and 7 years to take gains. Short term there is no known outcome. That is where future capital gains are stunted unless you have a lucky dart. Looking at history, I do not understand the over-weighting by suggestion to diversify, of owing foreign stocks. They just don't perform well.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2021 13:16:10 GMT
So why don’t we talk about what we know. 1) inflation is occurring at higher rates 2) no one knows I how long that will continue or not 3) treasuries are producing negative real returns and institutions are required to hold/buy them 4) rates here are low, but lower around the world 5) rates have been distorted with unknown consequences around the world 6) the US is having a kerfuffle with the second largest economy in the world 7) crypto is a new asset whose value is subject to debate with large investments 8) the US stock market indexes are HEAVILY tilted towards 5 stocks 9) work life dynamics and living patterns are in flux 10) savings are at an all time high for the US consumer 11) M2 supply is growing at double digits every month.....Sorry have to stop here. But you get the idea. That is what we know. And the stock market is expensive by historical terms. Heaven knows what we don’t know - i.e. any leverage, assets bubbles brewing - we just don’t know.
To me that means don’t buy assets with negative returns or at least minimize. Buy stocks at reasonable values and a margin of safety. Know your risk tolerance. Trends based, as mentioned on historical odds, that’s another matter.
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Post by ignatz on Jul 21, 2021 13:25:41 GMT
Sloooow.......
Good list of the knowns and tend to agree with all 9 of them.
Leading to what?
Do you act now in anticipation of some undesirable outcome?
Or do you act after the fact...some degree of decline in portfolio or individual asset value?
If the latter, what degree of decline? I see few concrete plans.
It seems most are reluctant to do anything other than fiddle around at the margins for fear of missing out, which I suppose is an acknowledgement of how little predictive value any of this has.
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