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Post by Chahta on Jul 14, 2021 17:09:09 GMT
Yes, Because food and fuel and materials, health care, real estate, are all spiking in one way or another. I didn't do much except hold on to a losing laggard fund of mine in energy, VDE. It has spiked over 50% lately, and I will continue to reinvest distributions. Fishingrod I am still not following how you would prepare for inflation. I have no idea.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2021 17:24:17 GMT
One thing I did is review the dividend growth rates for my holdings. I increase my international holdings as that is not only diversification, but a potential inflation hedge. I increased financial holdings, bought a small stake in a gold miner, bought MMM - a value priced industrial. I was already heavily tilted to value. Have some growth bought at value prices.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Jul 14, 2021 17:26:51 GMT
Yes, Because food and fuel and materials, health care, real estate, are all spiking in one way or another. I didn't do much except hold on to a losing laggard fund of mine in energy, VDE. It has spiked over 50% lately, and I will continue to reinvest distributions. Fishingrod I am still not following how you would prepare for inflation. I have no idea. I think rod is saying that he is not doing much except for holding and reinvesting divs. in energy, VDE. Others are using precious metals. I'm holding some RE in the form of O, but mostly am letting equities be the hedge against inflation. I don't think iPhones or MSFT software is going to get cheaper if we see inflation. People are doing the best they can. My bet is a balanced port with equities is as good an inflation hedge as most people will apply. One opinion of many, I'm sure ;-)
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Post by anitya on Jul 14, 2021 19:36:36 GMT
It felt like I was living under a rock when heard this: Blackrock AUM $9.5+T and it saw net inflows of $80+B during Q2. Billion is the new million!
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Post by Chahta on Jul 14, 2021 19:41:06 GMT
They are huge and do transactions for the government and Fed I believe.
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Post by anitya on Jul 14, 2021 20:03:37 GMT
Unprofitable techs are getting marked down in price today. So is Energy, with XLE down about 3.5%. Seems like market wants to be in quality profitable companies. 10 Yr Treasuries do not seem to be able to decide from day to day where we are headed. But today the entire Treasury curve moved lower, with 7 yr through 30 yr Treasuries all down 6 basis points. Today's overall market call seems to be stagflation or low growth inflation - supported by move in Gold and its derivatives.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 14, 2021 20:05:27 GMT
Do you know who controls the rates? the Fed Really? The Fed hasn't changed rates in a long time but the 10Y went up to 1.4% from about 0.6% a year ago.
If there is continuing higher inflation, the 10Y will go up. How much is anybody's guess..
Really? Do you think I meant the Fed set the price every day at a certain level? and why the Fed wants the 10 yr to be at 0.6%? It went there because of a massive meltdown. Powell can say one sentence and the 10 year goes to 2% within several weeks...yes...really...this is how much power the Fed has.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 14, 2021 20:16:34 GMT
Unprofitable techs are getting marked down in price today. So is Energy, with XLE down about 3.5%. Seems like market wants to be in quality profitable companies. 10 Yr Treasuries do not seem to be able to decide from day to day where we are headed. But today the entire Treasury curve moved lower, with 7 yr through 30 yr Treasuries all down 6 basis points. Today's overall market call seems to be stagflation or low growth inflation - supported by move in Gold and its derivatives. I don't know what is Unprofitable techs. I watch the easy most common index QQQ and it was up 0.18%. I don't see any stagflation. Today was one day among many trading days. YTD: stocks are up and GLD is down. You can just use the SP500 or If you are a good trader, growth is doing better than value in the last 2 months I haven't held gold for many years and I wouldn't hold it now. YTD, the SP500(SPY) is already up 17.5% No need to make changes when simple things work. You can keep trading in/out of sectors and drive yourself crazy and hope to do better or just KISS The hardest thing for many investors is just to hold and do nothing. Attachments:
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 15, 2021 13:05:56 GMT
Unprofitable techs are getting marked down in price today. So is Energy, with XLE down about 3.5%. Seems like market wants to be in quality profitable companies. 10 Yr Treasuries do not seem to be able to decide from day to day where we are headed. But today the entire Treasury curve moved lower, with 7 yr through 30 yr Treasuries all down 6 basis points. Today's overall market call seems to be stagflation or low growth inflation - supported by move in Gold and its derivatives. Energy had UAE/OPEC news. Unprofitable new highflying techs (i.e. those at high P/S without earnings) will get their reckoning. Ryan Jacob of the old dot. com flameout (lookup JAMFX in Max view) is back copying ARK's Wood with a new ETF JFWD and that should tell something.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2021 13:18:15 GMT
Yup - and hopefully some short term contagion comes along if/when that happens!
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Post by anitya on Jul 15, 2021 16:30:17 GMT
Yup - and hopefully some short term contagion comes along if/when that happens! Be careful what you wish for!
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Post by Chahta on Jul 15, 2021 17:19:06 GMT
Yup - and hopefully some short term contagion comes along if/when that happens! Nope....we don't need another 3/2020.
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 15, 2021 18:08:46 GMT
If we had a mid summer stock market correction where the market gave up a little more than half of its year to date gains Old_Skeet would become a buyer of equites as fourth quarter forward earnings projections are said, by some, to be close to the $200.00 range for the S&P 500 Index. With today's price for the S&P 500 Index trading around the 4,340 range puts the Forward P/E Ratio at about 21.7. With a ten percent correction puts the Index at an estimated forward P/E Ratio of 19.5%. And, with this, Old_Skeet would put his equity buying britches on.
No boubt, some would be looking for a rock to hide under ... but, not Old_Skeet.
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Post by Chahta on Jul 15, 2021 18:09:53 GMT
I would welcome a 10% dip.
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 15, 2021 19:15:31 GMT
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p99035663394&a=524485138&listNum=86The current weekly chart indicates the S&P 500 might find support at 4300 or 3700 or 3350 if it decided to correct. The trend of deminishing weekly trading volume indicates that the index is poised for a correction, but history indicates that it can remain poised for a very long time. In the absence of an improved outlook for inflation I would be slow to buy before a 25% correction has been completed. But first, a correction has to begin.
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Post by anitya on Jul 15, 2021 19:23:06 GMT
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p99035663394&a=524485138&listNum=86The current weekly chart indicates the S&P 500 might find support at 4300 or 3700 or 3350 if it decided to correct. The trend of deminishing weekly trading volume indicates that the index is poised for a correction, but history indicates that it can remain poised for a very long time. In the absence of an improved outlook for inflation I would be slow to buy before a 25% correction has been completed. But first, a correction has to begin. by "improved," do you mean lower or higher?
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 15, 2021 19:27:30 GMT
Lower
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Post by chang on Jul 15, 2021 22:14:33 GMT
I would welcome a 10% dip. You are welcome to have mine, when it comes.
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Post by oldskeet on Jul 15, 2021 22:18:55 GMT
Hi guys, Linked below are my three favored links that I use to follow the S&P 500 Index. I'll make comment about each below. Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... nakedshortreport.com/company/SPYNotice that the short volume in the Index has been increasing the past few days. Breadth Reading ... www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-3y-x-x-x/Back in April there was strong support of the price line with about 90% of the stocks trading above their 50 day moving average. Today, less than 50% of the stocks trade above their 50 day moving average. So, support for the price line has now declined. S&P 500 Chart, Elder Impulse System ... stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280 In reviewing all three indicators (CCI, MFI & Slow SSO) have all started a downward trend. With this, if Old_Skeet had any equity ballast or an open spiff position I'd be in the process of closing it out in steps, of course, should the indicators continue to decline. For me, investing is not rocket science; but, one needs to beware of caution signs when they appear.
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Post by Chahta on Jul 15, 2021 23:04:02 GMT
I would welcome a 10% dip. You are welcome to have mine, when it comes. Ha! 10% of yours is my total. 😂
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Post by Chahta on Jul 15, 2021 23:04:44 GMT
I would welcome a 10% dip. You are welcome to have mine, when it comes. Ha! 10% of yours is 100% of mine. 😂
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Post by jongaltiii on Jul 15, 2021 23:13:15 GMT
And in latest Marketwatch … the sky is falling news…. “Expect a 10% correction by mid August from an Expert…” on.mktw.net/3B3L1fnBut… wait for it… it’s going to hit all index’s and sectors… EXCEPT SPY … Sigh… we will never stop trying to time the market - will we? ADD: “Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 15, 2021 23:17:36 GMT
Well In my opinion the party may hit a lull when Covid returns in the fall. I feel sorry for the under 12 year olds. Hopefully they’ll have their chance at vaccinations by September. It’s seems to me with world travel and plenty of unvaccinated to choose from and mutate, Covid may be around for quite some time along with half baked economies. Maybe wild times and multiple boosters lie ahead. I’ll just continue to ride the hot hand, large cap tech mostly taking profits when offered in steps. No more buying on dips for us at this point. jongaltiii , See no timing, working with facts only, easy peasy.
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Post by jongaltiii on Jul 15, 2021 23:22:17 GMT
Well In my opinion the party may hit a lull when Covid returns in the fall. I feel sorry for the under 12 year olds. Hopefully they’ll have their chance at vaccinations by September. It’s seems to me with world travel and plenty of unvaccinated to choose from and mutate, Covid may be around for quite some time along with half baked economies. Maybe wild times and multiple boosters lie ahead. I’ll just continue to ride the hot hand, large cap tech taking profits in steps. No more buying on dips for us at this point. If I tap into my cynical side… I might conclude that the “variants” and “when COVID returns in the fall” is just messaging to get more people to the vaccination table…not a bad motive or intention but I don’t know if I fully subscribe to the conclusion.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 15, 2021 23:39:19 GMT
Well In my opinion the party may hit a lull when Covid returns in the fall. I feel sorry for the under 12 year olds. Hopefully they’ll have their chance at vaccinations by September. It’s seems to me with world travel and plenty of unvaccinated to choose from and mutate, Covid may be around for quite some time along with half baked economies. Maybe wild times and multiple boosters lie ahead. I’ll just continue to ride the hot hand, large cap tech taking profits in steps. No more buying on dips for us at this point. If I tap into my cynical side… I might conclude that the “variants” and “when COVID returns in the fall” is just messaging to get more people to the vaccination table…not a bad motive or intention but I don’t know if I fully subscribe to the conclusion. jongaltiii , My reading today about Missouri and other geographical locations like England, led me to this opinion. Sounds like the Pacific Northwest in early 2020. If I had to bet I’m on that side. The unvaccinated around the world are or may drag this out. Of course you’re right who knows. There may be ample opportunity for others to buy on dips though. But you’re dealing with an X factor governments can’t control so well making “efficient” markets harder to deal with, more risky then in the past. This is more troubling to spendown investors then income investors like myself.
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Post by anitya on Jul 16, 2021 7:09:54 GMT
Well In my opinion the party may hit a lull when Covid returns in the fall. I feel sorry for the under 12 year olds. Hopefully they’ll have their chance at vaccinations by September. It’s seems to me with world travel and plenty of unvaccinated to choose from and mutate, Covid may be around for quite some time along with half baked economies. Maybe wild times and multiple boosters lie ahead. I’ll just continue to ride the hot hand, large cap tech taking profits in steps. No more buying on dips for us at this point. If I tap into my cynical side… I might conclude that the “variants” and “when COVID returns in the fall” is just messaging to get more people to the vaccination table…not a bad motive or intention but I don’t know if I fully subscribe to the conclusion. Talking about messaging, evidently even the French are having difficulty hitting their vaccine numbers. The news is that the French Govt issued a directive that only those with a vaccine passport will be allowed to indoor events, incl restaurants, and all of a sudden their vaccine rates went into overdrive. I can imagine hesitancy outside the US, where mRNA vaccines are difficult to come by, but we in the US are at our wits end. While the longer this lasts we will have a lot of unintended consequences in the US, may be it will be good in the long run reducing the %age of irrationals.
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Post by johntaylor on Jul 19, 2021 15:47:38 GMT
Some irrationality may be embedded in human nature.
And some are suspicious given history like the Tuskegee Experiment and Korematsu v US.
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Post by Chahta on Jul 19, 2021 16:23:27 GMT
Well In my opinion the party may hit a lull when Covid returns in the fall. I feel sorry for the under 12 year olds. Hopefully they’ll have their chance at vaccinations by September. It’s seems to me with world travel and plenty of unvaccinated to choose from and mutate, Covid may be around for quite some time along with half baked economies. Maybe wild times and multiple boosters lie ahead. I’ll just continue to ride the hot hand, large cap tech taking profits in steps. No more buying on dips for us at this point. If I tap into my cynical side… I might conclude that the “variants” and “when COVID returns in the fall” is just messaging to get more people to the vaccination table…not a bad motive or intention but I don’t know if I fully subscribe to the conclusion. I do not doubt for 1 minute that "it" will return later this year. It is never going away, well at least for a long time. Most likely not to the extent it did in the past with 50% vaccinated now.
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Post by anitya on Jul 19, 2021 18:23:45 GMT
Some irrationality may be embedded in human nature. And some are suspicious given history like the Tuskegee Experiment and Korematsu v US. I understand where you are coming from but you will agree that past is there to learn from and not to live in. BTW, I know at least two US senators (happen to be Republicans) participated in Covid vaccine trials: Rob Portman and Steve Daines. There may be other politicians from both parties who participated. I do not think any amount of glaring facts to the contrary would help those that revel in outsourcing their critical thinking and derive pleasure in victimhood. With their suicidal tendencies, they do not seem to want to stop until there is plenty of collateral damage - mutation into new variants that the vaccines are not effective against, deaths of people who medically can not take the vaccines, and plenty of economic damage. Please do not enable their behavior or make excuses for them with your kindness. We all should treat this as a national security issue - if we do not get our act together fast, we will all be working for President Xi soon.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 19, 2021 21:41:23 GMT
I like to be cynical. Why stocks went down today? because there were more sellers than buyers which is always true but the media have been saying it's because of covid...mmm...cases have been going up for weeks and tomorrow the market may go up again. Another good reason is the fact the market was up so a lot this year and it has to go down too. Today growth (I like QQQ) did better than value (SCHD)...VUG did better VTV(Vanguard growth did better value)...SPY is in the middle. So, for in the last 2 months growth leads and is still leading. Today we also saw a rebound from the bottom. All 3 (SPY,QQQ,SCHD) are less than 3% from the top. Attachments:
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