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Post by FD1000 on Feb 2, 2021 18:38:51 GMT
The following are several observations in no particular order:
* Calling for market tops is a fool’s errand.
* Taking a short position based on the above is a double fool’s errand because if you are wrong you lose twice.
* Investing based on predictions is another fool’s errand. Many have been off by months and years. Investing based on what happened lately and current is more accurate, it can't be wrong too long.
* If you want to be a trader then be a trader and be sure it has been working for you for years for real, just be honest with yourself.
* The 24/7 media is always looking for an angle and to make up lots of noise. Noise isn't an investment plan.
* Is inflation going up? The real question is inflation going to be high? Inflation running at 2-2.5% is a good thing, is it going to be above 2.5-3% any time soon and for months to come? I doubt it because a) unemployment is still high b) High tech have been improving processes and squeeze jobs and earnings, and it gets faster. C) Global economy helps to produce things at a lower pay. D) The ability to compare prices easily over the internet compressed earnings.
* Are treasuries rates going up? They might but are they going up beyond 1.5-2% any time soon? I doubt it. 3 main factors influence rates: inflation, the Fed and the economy. The Fed fund rate is going to stay where it is until late 2021(link).
* Are any of the following finally back: value, SC, international, Asia? Based on a 6 month chart attached of VFINX=SP500…VTV+SCHD=Value…IWM=SC…VXUS= international…AIA=Asia…and QQQ. I see the following: AIA+IWM are definitely ahead.
Based on the above:
*Bonds: if you want to make money (more than 3-4%) don’t be in higher rated bond funds. My long term favorites are HY Munis + Multisector/NonTrad(I have a thread for that). If your bonds are mainly used for ballast then by all mean use higher-rated funds.
*Stocks: SP500 is a blend easy hold for decades. I would add SC+ASIA, they show a good momentum for 1-3-6-12 months. I would add AIA(or another fund) before IWM based on a) Dollar weakness b) Asia covid-19 is better c) AIA is in high tech over 38%(from Yahoo). SCHD doesn’t look meaningfully better so why bother. You want your explore portion to do something big. High tech is going to be a major part of stocks for many years to come, I doubt stock markets can move long without the big tech and that include Asia big tech.
*If you are not comfortable, take small steps and make slower changes over several months.
Remember: the above was just another look at my cloudy crystal ball. Do your own due diligence, I always do mine and stay safe.
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Post by bb2 on Feb 2, 2021 22:17:20 GMT
Great post. Could have been in the investing lessons thread as these thoughts apply over the long haul. China's run makes me hesitate to add new money. Will wait to boost my take, which I want to do. China has their s together.
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 2, 2021 23:00:06 GMT
Good post, FD.
Guess that means I agree with it!
Can't find even one point to strongly challenge. But I would quibble with your inflation outlook. You gave reasons may be slow. Here are some reasons may be accelerating(and I agree, to get to 5%, need to pass through 3%, etc):
--widespread adoption of $15/hour min wage is on-going. Just passed on ballot in florida. The math shows this is a massive annual percent increase, that will reverberate to all jobs. Standby...as inflation is primarily wages driven.
--Huge gvt borrowing in recent couple years will devalue something big time. Currently being funded on the backs of older people and poorer ones...that invest in CDs and bank savings accounts...and now bond fund holders. Like my 101 y/o MIL, who gets zilch for interest on CDs...but she can go 20 more years on principal! Bondholders on strike could change this ZIRP quickly.
--My anecdotal evidence is prices rising much faster than gvt reports. Like, my wife and I just may cut back a lot, on going out to dinner etc, especially with $15/hour min wage coming (up from $2+ for waitstaff, in addition to tips.) Count me out. Bought take-home for my recent birthday, instead of going out, when saw prices at fav restaurant are now about $70/entre'.
--Downsizing of boxes/packaging etc underway.
--Gvt always UNDERREPORTS INFLATION. PIMCO Study suggest by 1.25-1.5%.
R48
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 2, 2021 23:43:21 GMT
Hi R48, I can't see any inflation going up above 2.5% in the next 12 months. QE is with us for 10 years already. The Fed is trying to get it over 2% for years. Inflation is definitely higher in some sectors but lower in others. Any forecasts I look at show max inflation below 2.5% for the next 1+ years, see (link1) (link2). Employers + the Gov use the official inflation for raises/increases too. There are millions who lost their jobs never to get them back. Many business owners figure out ways to cut expenses. Many employees are going to work only from home and their companies saved millions on office space. Even sales people now don't need to fly and visit their clients face to face, it's acceptable to have a zoom meeting and save money and time for all.
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Post by Capital on Feb 2, 2021 23:44:12 GMT
FD1000, Thanks for the post. Lot's of good advice therein.
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 2, 2021 23:53:47 GMT
Hi R48, I can't see any inflation going up above 2.5% in the next 12 months. QE is with us for 10 years already. The Fed is trying to get it over 2% for years. Inflation is definitely higher in some sectors but lower in others. Any forecasts I look at show max inflation below 2.5% for the next 1+ years, see (link1) (link2). Employers + the Gov use the official inflation for raises/increases too. There are millions who lost their jobs never to get them back. Many business owners figure out ways to cut expenses. Many employees are going to work only from home and their companies saved millions on office space. Even sales people now don't need to fly and visit their clients face to face, it's acceptable to have a zoom meeting and save money and time for all.
Well, are you old enough to remember STAGFLATION??During the 1970's, we had poor economic conditions, but inflation rising...to 10%. I was giving my employees raises that equaled their total annual mortgage payments! Amazing. Simple fact is, we may see price rises as businesses adjust for the lesser business volume that is clearly underway. Have to survive somehow. Six foot table spacing (50% capacity) in restaurants may be here for years. Prices have to go up. NY City projects that 33% of restaurants are closed forever. Survivors may have great pricing power. And watch for gas prices. With econ covid downturn in 2020 demand, suppliers adjusted well. Oil now at $54/barrel. Watch gas prices rise from here on out through recovery, as OPEC and Exxons of world limit production. It will be like a tax on the economy. Food prices going up (sugar up 50% in 9 months)...gas prices up, whew. Weaker dollar means import prices up. ...only movie theater tickets and popcorn are in trouble. BTW An official 2.5% rise in inflation (that you state) in next 12 months, means a likely rise in 10 yr treasury bond yields...perhaps doubling form current 1.05%. With bond convexity, this is a large increase. And then what is outlook for the next year? Likely higher inflation, and so on. R48
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 2, 2021 23:57:38 GMT
Great post. Could have been in the investing lessons thread as these thoughts apply over the long haul. China's run makes me hesitate to add new money. Will wait to boost my take, which I want to do. China has their s together. There are different ETF. ADRE is mostly Asia + Brazil. China is a smaller %, tech > 50% ( link). Attachments:
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Post by acksurf on Feb 3, 2021 0:33:10 GMT
Thanks for the pointing out AIA. Had not seen that ETF before.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 3, 2021 3:59:56 GMT
Below is an answer to my post from Dick, the bond trader....
Hi. Good stuff as usual. I'd just add under the category "obvious things that will scare everyone and generate lots of talking head quack:"
The ANNUAL CPI and related inflation indices will almost certainly "spike" to 2.6% to 3.2% in late Spring BECAUSE the computation base will be low index numbers from the inflation COVID CRASH of 2020 --- having little or nothing to do with CURRENT inflation. Of course, these "horrific" numbers will quickly reverse in Summer as the computational base becomes the POST-CRASH infoatiin SPIKE of Summer 2020.
Regards, Dick
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Post by Norbert on Feb 3, 2021 8:22:39 GMT
Trying to call market tops or relying on market predictions is pretty silly. I completely agree.
But, that doesn't mean that we can't time the market.
For example, March 2020 offered us excellent price discounts. There was panic, forced selling, T-Bond rates hit all-time lows, and the prospect of Fed intervention was high. These facts motivated some of us to increase exposure to risky assets. I stepped up my equity exposure to the high end of my target range starting in March.
The situation has reversed. Panic has been replaced with complacency. Low prices have given way to high prices. T-Bond rates are climbing again. There's the prospect of Fed tapering in a year or two. We may see higher taxes and consumer prices.
None of these points have motivated me to call a top or predict a crash. But, they have motivated me to ring the cash register and reposition my portfolio at a lower level of risk exposure. In particular, I cut exposure to Alt Energy, which was up 100%+ on a political narrative and was seeing extremely high multiples.
The market may well continue to climb, but the market conditions aren't as attractive as before. It's unpredictable. I'll continue to profit by stock gains, but not as much as before.
That's my 2.
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Post by chang on Feb 3, 2021 9:58:41 GMT
Trying to call market tops or relying on market predictions is pretty silly. I completely agree. But, that doesn't mean that we can't time the market. For example, March 2020 offered us excellent price discounts. There was panic, forced selling, T-Bond rates hit all-time lows, and the prospect of Fed intervention was high. These facts motivated some of us to increase exposure to risky assets. I stepped up my equity exposure to the high end of my target range starting in March. The situation has reversed. Panic has been replaced with complacency. Low prices have given way to high prices. T-Bond rates are climbing again. There's the prospect of Fed tapering in a year or two. We may see higher taxes and consumer prices. None of these points have motivated me to call a top or predict a crash. But, they have motivated me to ring the cash register and reposition my portfolio at a lower level of risk exposure. In particular, I cut exposure to Alt Energy, which was up 100%+ on a political narrative and was seeing extremely high multiples. The market may well continue to climb, but the market conditions aren't as attractive as before. It's unpredictable. I'll continue to profit by stock gains, but not as much as before. That's my 2. Excellent, trenchant commentary. The transition from "letting it ride" to "selling into euphoria" is extremely tricky, and nobody times it perfectly. I was buying from April (a little late) right up until now. I started some gentle selling last week. I was too early, of course. But I am sitting on substantial gains, and I am uncomfortable with my current risk level; so I am taking slow steps to protect capital. It doesn't matter whether I am early: the thing is, I already waited long enough, as my balances show me. Nobody is predicting a top, not even doomsayers like Grantham. The doomsayers have erudite and convincing arguments -- but they always do, which is why many people read their warnings and think, "yeah, yeah, and a stopped clock....". What speaks to me right now are the charts. I have never seen anything like them. Something has got to break sooner or later. Personally, I have done a terrible job of managing bear markets and crashes -- absolutely terrible. I have simply been very lucky up until now, because my finances have recovered each time I've been at the edge of the abyss. I just cannot afford to get caught with my pants down again. Norbert touched on many of the relevant issues. At the risk of being slightly less articulate than Norbert was, there is just a lot of spooky stuff going on now ..... Tesla nearing $1000 ($5000 on a pre-split basis) when it was $37 on 5/1/2019 ..... the GameStop shenanigans ..... political unpredictability and dysfunction ..... and so on. I simply do not need to stick my neck out too far and risk having it chopped off. PS.: I agree with FD about HY munis. A good asset to hold if you are subject to taxes. My muni bond exposure is about 5:1 (HY:IG).
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Post by Chahta on Feb 3, 2021 13:28:17 GMT
Yes these are crazy times for the reason you all have mentioned. How far would Tesla need to fall before the market was right again? GameStop shorting was a "normal" market occurrence until the shorts were challenged. That could be a new normal. After all no one has the right to make money without being challenged in the market. Rising rates are good. We knew they were coming, so better now and that it happens slowly.
I think AA is what these posts are all about. Something you are comfortable with. Managing bear markets as a B&H investor is not easy. Not something that makes you happy or easy to experience, but easy to manage. Others will make profit from your hastiness when the market turns south. Be prepared for recovery.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 3, 2021 15:58:30 GMT
Trying to call market tops or relying on market predictions is pretty silly. I completely agree. But, that doesn't mean that we can't time the market. For example, March 2020 offered us excellent price discounts. There was panic, forced selling, T-Bond rates hit all-time lows, and the prospect of Fed intervention was high. These facts motivated some of us to increase exposure to risky assets. I stepped up my equity exposure to the high end of my target range starting in March. The situation has reversed. Panic has been replaced with complacency. Low prices have given way to high prices. T-Bond rates are climbing again. There's the prospect of Fed tapering in a year or two. We may see higher taxes and consumer prices. None of these points have motivated me to call a top or predict a crash. But, they have motivated me to ring the cash register and reposition my portfolio at a lower level of risk exposure. In particular, I cut exposure to Alt Energy, which was up 100%+ on a political narrative and was seeing extremely high multiples. The market may well continue to climb, but the market conditions aren't as attractive as before. It's unpredictable. I'll continue to profit by stock gains, but not as much as before. That's my 2. Big picture and more observations after many years on several boards. Many have a hard time is to distinguish between generic comment to what I do, so let's try explaining it.
"Timing the market:" most are average at best, others think they are good. Sure, several have a done good job. I have plenty evidence of my own.
"I cut exposure to Alt Energy:" I would not call this a main part of anybody's portfolio. After many years I finally see a reason to own Asia. This should be a main part and longer-term part of most portfolios. There is no ringing a bell for your main portfolio, that's timing and most investors don't do it well. If someone wants to make adjustments more than 5%, then take up to 20% of your portfolio and play with that, and that includes buying the deeps, trading single stocks whatever you don't expect to hold for several years. So, if someone had 6 months ago 70% SPY + 30% AIA (simple 2 funds) and now they have 65% SPY + 35% AIA, I say you do nothing. Generally, let your winners win until you are not comfortable, and then I rebalance.
"The market may well continue to climb, but the market conditions aren't as attractive as before. It's unpredictable. I'll continue to profit by stock gains, but not as much as before:" as I said before, you could make this argument 20-30% ago, markets are never predictable. I'm talking about the average Joe and maybe the following would upset posters but I have seen too many of them. I also don't believe in trading based on predictions, the economy, others...it must show up in actual indicators, prices and charts right now and you must be a good trader. Why I keep insisting on this because I know it works better than most. Why I keep mentioning the VIX, it's not accurate and I look at other stuff but VIX>40 for several days signals real danger and the only time you may sell something. Most should stay invested at all times according to their goals and risk tolerance with minimal trading/adjusting. Similar to a marathon runner, unless you practice it and it works don't try doing it. Let's assume you sold, when are you going to buy? It fell 5%? are you going to buy? It fell another 5% then what? Trading decision again.
I also learned that other "experts" such as GMO, Arnott, Gundlach were wrong for years about it and all had fabulous narrative about market conditions, but none happened in real time. That taught me to invest based on now. I also learned the Fed has more influence than anybody and right now the US and other central banks raised liquidity by a lot.
I also read things like...I raised my cash...I bought/increase/decrease a certain stock/ETF/fund...I own this fund for 20-30 years. All nice and dandy but mostly without context and knowing what is the exact %, what are the goals, how long was the trade. I prefer seeing more context. Example: did you sell your energy and Asia? Everything? What did you buy instead and why?
BTW, VIX is back to 25, not low but not high enough and the Fear & Greed Index is neutral(link).
Lastly, I'm a trader, no secret about it, but I don't recommend it. I tried and tweaked it for years. Things that didn't work I ditched. Let me emphasize it, the above is not directed at you, these are generic thoughts.Attachments:
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 5, 2021 22:08:08 GMT
Sell the news "$1.9T bill signed into law," soon.....
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Post by Chahta on Feb 5, 2021 23:02:07 GMT
Good...I want my $1400. Let the 'suckers' pay for it. The only thing I ever got from Uncle was the stimulus money. It was only paid in, never out. Anyone that cries about the deficit is wasting tears.....
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Post by Capital on Feb 5, 2021 23:18:38 GMT
Good...I want my $1400. Let the 'suckers' pay for it. The only thing I ever got from Uncle was the stimulus money. It was only paid in, never out. Anyone that cries about the deficit is wasting tears..... If we did not have Treasuries what would we use a a risk free investment? We need to print more.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 7, 2021 23:44:04 GMT
We keep seeing the same dilemma for years and why: 1) If you are a good trader for many years, any style is OK but are you really honest with yourself, especially as a retiree? Do you have specific goals? I'm talking about, what % you want to make? What is your max loss? Did you beat VWIAX and did you check your portfolio SD too? How about setting one account with your buy and hold ideas for all market for the next 10 years and see if you beat it? 2) Most should do almost nothing and/or small changes.
As a trader I see that VIX is down from +34 to under 21. See attached below and pay attention to SC + Asia. In just one week IWM made 7.8% and AIA 5.5% and if you had a short it lost money. SPY made 4.8% last week, what do you think the reverse(shorting) made? If you are a trader you keep holding, you keep looking for better funds and indexes (compare VLUE vs SCHD)...(chart). A trader hold his winners and sell losers, he also looks for better categories/momentum plays, but a good trader goes to cash when most categories lose money and risk is very high. As long as I can access the internet I know I can be out in just minutes if I need to do it, after all, how long does it take to sell 2-3 funds?
The rest of investors please KISS.Attachments:
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 8, 2021 0:59:08 GMT
.....
The rest of investors please KISS. Please KISS what? Your Highness !!
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Post by Chahta on Feb 8, 2021 1:02:37 GMT
Keep It Simple Stupid.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 12, 2021 18:41:18 GMT
( link) Global equity funds saw the largest inflows on record for the week ended Feb. 10, according to EPFR Global. About $58.1B flowed into equities, while $13.B went into bond funds. "The big surprise has been that part of the fiscal stimulus checks that went out ended up in the market," Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz, told Bloomberg. "There is a lot of liquidity sloshing around and it's just looking for a home." For the U.S., it was the second-biggest week of inflows to large-caps at $25.1B, while small-caps saw $5.6B coming in, the third-biggest week ever. Tech stocks saw inflows of $5.4B in the week into Wednesday. Financials saw inflows of $1.8B, while $1.9B went to energy and $1.3B went to healthcare. Across the rest of the globe, $600M went into European equities, $1.7B flowed into Japanese funds and $5.4B went to emerging markets. One of the people benefiting greatly from the flows into large-caps, and tech in particular, is ARK Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood, who runs the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) among others. Wood said this week the bubble is in fixed income, not equities, and pointed to net outflow from equities since 2018. The usual, most should stay the course. Good traders may do whatever.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 18, 2021 20:43:39 GMT
Another idea I mentioned several times before, you don't have to invest abroad at all or too much. Instead, you can find other categories/sectors in the US. Small cap have done really well in the last several months. Suppose you think big tech is the future, why not buy global big tech fund? There are many paths for flexible investors.
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Post by FD1000 on Feb 22, 2021 2:06:57 GMT
The Small Cap index (IWM) has been doing better than SPY,QQQ in the last several months. BUT Microcap(IWC) is doing really well and has a lot more room to grow with a low P/E=10 ( link) Big caps have been leading for years, finally SC are taking over ( link).
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Post by fred495 on Feb 22, 2021 5:48:51 GMT
The Small Cap index (IWM) has been doing better than SPY,QQQ in the last several months. BUT Microcap(IWC) is doing really well and has a lot more room to grow with a low P/E=10 ( link) Big caps have been leading for years, finally SC are taking over ( link).
FYI, here are some additional optimistic market observations from an article in yesterday's WSJ. Here are some excerpts:
"Shares of small companies and sectors of the market like financials and energy notched strong gains, while the broader stock market's moves were more muted. [...]
The jump in bond yields comes as the economy seems to be improving, stoking enthusiasm about a speedy recovery. New data on Friday showed that business activity in the U.S. private sector held up, boosted by accelerating service activity and manufacturing output. That followed a report Wednesday that showed consumers used stimulus checks to boost retail spending in January to the largest increase in seven months. [...]
JPMorgan Chase strategists said Friday that they expect consumers to shatter expectations for the rest of the year given expected fiscal stimulus and economic reopening as the pandemic eases. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said he expects the economy to pick up steam as vaccines are distributed.
This optimistic outlook led investors to ditch Treasurys and pile into economically sensitive stocks in the financials and energy sectors, helping those groups notch big weekly gains."
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 12, 2021 12:37:36 GMT
The following are several observations in no particular order:
* Calling for market tops is a fool’s errand.
* Taking a short position based on the above is a double fool’s errand because if you are wrong you lose twice.
* Investing based on predictions is another fool’s errand. Many have been off by months and years. Investing based on what happened lately and current is more accurate, it can't be wrong too long.
* If you want to be a trader then be a trader and be sure it has been working for you for years for real, just be honest with yourself.
* The 24/7 media is always looking for an angle and to make up lots of noise. Noise isn't an investment plan.
I started this thread because I have seen several investors here and at other places going to cash and some even shorted the market at the end of January. It didn't work that well.
Since the end of January on 1/29/2021 the SP500 (VFIAX) gained +6.28% and SH lost -6.28%.
In the last several weeks I started several threads in several sites why it's important for most investors to stay invested and not try to time or predict future market performance.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 13, 2021 15:20:12 GMT
The following is just for someone who likes to tweak their portfolio.
Stocks: SP500 still doing well over 5% YTD. VALUE(SCHD) is clearly ahead SC(IWM) has being doing well for months + IWC (micro cap) with much lower PE doing even better. International (VXUS) momo is falling QQQ + AIA(lots of tech) lost in the last month
For over 25 years I preferred to invest in the US instead of international. These categories include SC, financial and healthcare and others. I don't think I ever had more than 10% in international, SGIIX was a fund I have used for about 10 years.
Bonds: - higher rated bond are down several % YTD and even many Multi sector bonds lost money. - Bank loans are doing well YTD at 1.5+% as they do when rates are going up - (HY) Munis-I have been using it for years instead of higher-rated bonds and YTD they are up while higher-rated are down several %. Schwab let you buy muni bonds in your IRA but Fidelity doesn't. - Multi: many funds are down but securitized are doing well. If you can forget March 2020 and wants to make money this is the best place to be.
The Dollar got stronger in the last 2 months and probably why international has not done well.
Inflation will be higher for the next several months compare to last year but will be down after that.
Others: - Trow has 2 interesting funds. TMSRX-multi strategy/assets YTD=1.6% RPIDX is a bond fund with YTD=6% is doing even better. The manager served as a Senior Vice President at PIMCO
ARBIX: Absolute Convertible Arbitrage with low SD but good returns of 6% annually for 3 years and YTD=1.6%
As a trader, I still can find great funds, all I need is 2-3 funds.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 14, 2021 19:50:18 GMT
I would expect bank loan funds to take off with rates rising so rapidly. But what do I know? Do they need rates to settle down before going up?
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 15, 2021 15:50:42 GMT
I would expect bank loan funds to take off with rates rising so rapidly. But what do I know? Do they need rates to settle down before going up? BL are not expected to take off but to do better.
It's all relative, bank loans made over 1.5% in just 2.5 months while many higher-rated bond funds lost over 3%. What did you expect to make?
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 10, 2021 21:58:32 GMT
Market is at all-time high and...you guessed it...the scary catchy articles are showing up. Remember, the market may be down but I doubt you will time it right. Me? I'm still invested at 99+%. All the cash, several thousands is in the bank. I have zero cash at my brokerage, see below a real copy of our account. Attachments:
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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 10, 2021 23:41:11 GMT
Market is at all-time high and...you guessed it...the scary catchy articles are showing up. Remember, the market may be down but I doubt you will time it right. Me? I'm still invested at 99+%. All the cash, several thousands is in the bank. I have zero cash at my brokerage, see below a real copy of our account. FD1000, what is your AA with all your money invested in the market? Everyone else on this board feels very comfortable disclosing that level of detail. Thanks.
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 11, 2021 3:22:12 GMT
Market is at all-time high and...you guessed it...the scary catchy articles are showing up. Remember, the market may be down but I doubt you will time it right. Me? I'm still invested at 99+%. All the cash, several thousands is in the bank. I have zero cash at my brokerage, see below a real copy of our account. FD1000 , what is your AA with all your money invested in the market? Everyone else on this board feels very comfortable disclosing that level of detail. Thanks. The usual according to my goals I posted many times since retirement in 2018: 1) We need to make just 4% annually to cover LT costs+inflation for our portfolio to last for 4-5 decades. 2) I still want to make at least 6% annually with the lowest Standard Deviation (under 3) and without ever losing 3% from any last top and be positive annually. I no longer care to maximize performance but to keep our standard of living 3) Use mainly bonds OEFs with the flexibility to trade more often by using momentum and smoother uptrend. 4) May sometimes use faster trades of other funds(stocks,CEFs, gold and more). 5) Use very concentrated portfolio of usually 2-3 funds. This is according to Buffett "Diversification is a protection against ignorance" 6) I sell at market extreme but, I was invested at 99+% (never cash) 98% of the time in the last 11-12 years. I sold to cash several weeks in Q4/2018 and March/2020 and why my portfolio was never down more than 1% from any last top.. Right now in just 2 bond OEFs. I used to post my funds monthly but I was accused that I promote my funds. Easy solutions, no more what I own. I maintained for years threads about bond OEFs. Right now I only maintain one at armchairinvesting.freeforums.net/thread/616/bond-oefs-2021. So, what have I owned in the last several years? mostly Multi sector/NonTrad(specifically in specialized securitized) + HY Munis
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