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Post by racqueteer on Jul 21, 2021 13:32:26 GMT
Looking at history, I do not understand the over-weighting by suggestion to diversify, of owing foreign stocks. They just don't perform well. My feeling has always been that, while there are times where foreign, especially Asia, outperform the US, this is only true if US stocks are at least doing well. If stocks are down, they are most times down EVERYWHERE. In that regard, I don't really see a diversification 'bonus' being involved, but that's based on MY perception that 'diversification' means having something which performs COUNTER to some other thing; or at least behaves INDEPENDENTLY. To me, stocks are stocks REGARDLESS of their origin. Maybe, as China progresses, this may no longer be the case? |
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Post by Chahta on Jul 21, 2021 13:37:47 GMT
Well I agree somewhat, but stocks are stocks and funds are funds. I own funds so compare VEU to VTI and there is no comparison.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 21, 2021 13:45:26 GMT
@slooow
I can't and don't disagree.
Will add that we also know that financial engineering is a bipartisan sport, eagerly employed by central banks (QE) and governments (Napier's guaranteed lending and "magic money"). It all sounds too good to be true.
Yes, government bonds will have negative real returns. Real estate prices are soaring, particularly in desirable locations. Yes, own stocks, but pay attention to the multiples.
All this kind of seems obvious, as I summarize it.
For myself, I don't need more money. But, I don't want to lose what I have. So, I'm not increasing equities above my target allocation, not at these prices. Even though I fully grasp the problem with holding cash and vanilla bonds.
I don't want to be in a place where a 20% stock index decline causes me to lose sleep. However, I did encourage my daughter to go 100% equities, understanding that volatility is part of the game.
I do think there's good value to be found in foreign real estate at certain places.
N.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2021 13:45:51 GMT
Ignatz - to me it adds up to a heavy equity allocation with as little in cash/bonds as I can stomach to keep from panicking and to maintain my lifestyle if an outlier event occurs. I am buy and hold. Still accumulating, with drawdowns beginning in the next 5 years. If I see equities I think are good value and support my goals, I will put new money towards them. Plans - great question. I have my plan to take some profits after third quarter earnings if the market progresses as I “predict” it will. I have a list of what to sell and the amounts. If it doesn’t then I have my allocation decision (to keep me from panicking) to fall back on.
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Post by racqueteer on Jul 21, 2021 13:57:23 GMT
Well I agree somewhat, but stocks are stocks and funds are funds. I own funds so compare VEU to VTI and there is no comparison. Yeah, sorry for the confusion... I meant equities in general. I also invest in funds and was referring to their equity components. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 21, 2021 16:29:01 GMT
newzg:I must have missed it - what was your point that was proven?
FD: that you know the reasons why stocks go down. I say you don't know the reasons because there are millions of trades based on different reasons. All I know is prices go down because of more sellers than buyers. Of course, it's a given but if frees me looking for reasons and why I concentrate on prices, charts, trends and other indicators.
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Norbert:His point is that nothing can be predicted by anyone excepting him.
FD: pure jealousy and not accurate. I base my investments on current conditions(see above) and especially and MY FUNDS. It worked very well for me and why I lost less than 1% from any last top in the last 3 years.
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Raq:So much of the bickering online derives from people who don't agree on word usage and/or meaning. An additional (but significant) fraction of that bickering derives from personal animosities which spill over - deservedly or otherwise.
FD: good point, Norbert has been doing it for years.
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Raq: His point is that actual PREDICTIONS are no better than guesses. Trying to "get ahead of things" is difficult at best. You either buy and hold solid choices, or be active; based on what's actually happening right now. Most people haven't the time, inclination, or temperament to do the latter. Of course, anything one DOES can be viewed as a 'prediction'; if only that things will continue; so, confusing point, perhaps.
FD: I have a system that I follow and it works, that's all I know. The principals are the same but what I have done changed over the years according to goals, age, risk tolerance. I learn to count on several indicators, prices, others and I got better over the years. If you want to learn to swim you have to practice. Over the years I found several others that used similar systems. None of them post here. It is easier now because I have enough, I don't care what the stock market does, I need to meet our goals.
The trick is to pay attention to what is important and tune out the noise, and it takes very little of my time.
This thread has nothing to do with my investing style. It's about the big picture of market conditions and what to do if you care
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Sloow:So why don’t we talk about what we know. 1) inflation is occurring at higher rates 2) no one knows I how long that will continue or not 3) treasuries are producing negative real returns and institutions are required to hold/buy them 4) rates here are low, but lower around the world 5) rates have been distorted with unknown consequences around the world 6) the US is having a kerfuffle with the second largest economy in the world 7) crypto is a new asset whose value is subject to debate with large investments 8) the US stock market indexes are HEAVILY tilted towards 5 stocks 9) work life dynamics and living patterns are in flux 10) savings are at an all time high for the US consumer 11) M2 supply is growing at double digits every month.....Sorry have to stop here. But you get the idea. That is what we know. And the stock market is expensive by historical terms. Heaven knows what we don’t know - i.e. any leverage, assets bubbles brewing - we just don’t know.
FD: you touched on many points. All are great. What to do? It depends on your style and goals. We talked about it many times. Investing can be very easy and all the way to very complicated.
Just because something happens doesn't mean we have to do anything special. Inflation in the last several months is higher. It's an interesting subject, but should most investors do something? I say, don't.
You mentioned treasuries. For months, I posted about HY Munis instead, for investors who look to make more.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jul 21, 2021 16:56:34 GMT
racqueteer : So much of the bickering online derives from people who don't agree on word usage and/or meaning.....Good point. Posters often misuse or improperly use some terminology. Examples include "cash", "conservative" "short-term", "quality", etc. Some terminology is contextual, and problems may arise when posters look for literal or broader meanings.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2021 17:47:06 GMT
2 topics in here - why diversify into international and inflation. International - stated historically it doesn’t do well compared to the US markets. Well, seems to me world order has changed a bit. More middle classes are forming/formed in countries, more globalization, etc. I would think that might have an impact. When I put in an international allocation in PV, from the result, it seemed like a decent decision. Inflation - it’s here - no one can argue that - timing and persistence can be argued. But we don’t know. Any conclusion otherwise - temporary or not - is a prediction. So, looking at what we KNOW now, I’m taking inflation into account until market forces say that ain’t so. So, on one point, I am not looking at the historical record (international) and the other (inflation) I am looking at the here and now. I am not sure about either one, but my allocation decisions based on both should not interfere with my long game unduly. Hope this has something to do with the topic, otw - apologies.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 21, 2021 18:34:46 GMT
Chahta , I got into the non diversifying habit in the late 80’s,90’s with the onset of the internet. I did the gold rush strategy by investing in the hardware not the .coms. I still had some long held dividend stocks for “safety” and a muni fund. I thought of it as following the smart money. I looked at tech as an emerging market. I diversified and didn’t know it.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 21, 2021 18:50:17 GMT
Sloooow....... Good list of the knowns and tend to agree with all 9 of them. Leading to what? Do you act now in anticipation of some undesirable outcome? Or do you act after the fact...some degree of decline in portfolio or individual asset value? If the latter, what degree of decline? I see few concrete plans. It seems most are reluctant to do anything other than fiddle around at the margins for fear of missing out, which I suppose is an acknowledgement of how little predictive value any of this has. That right there is the market timers dilemma. Everything is always overvalued, something could happen, no perfect situation, indecision, long standing invisible losses. DCA investors don’t have the problem. As far as a concrete plan. I had everything on dividend investment, DCA monthly with some positions, added cash during corrections, added cash and dumped losers to buy worse losers during major dips for years. That’s about all the good opportunities you have. So we just dealt we factual opportunities. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 21, 2021 20:02:48 GMT
2 topics in here - why diversify into international and inflation. International - stated historically it doesn’t do well compared to the US markets. Well, seems to me world order has changed a bit. More middle classes are forming/formed in countries, more globalization, etc. I would think that might have an impact. When I put in an international allocation in PV, from the result, it seemed like a decent decision. Inflation - it’s here - no one can argue that - timing and persistence can be argued. But we don’t know. Any conclusion otherwise - temporary or not - is a prediction. So, looking at what we KNOW now, I’m taking inflation into account until market forces say that ain’t so. So, on one point, I am not looking at the historical record (international) and the other (inflation) I am looking at the here and now. I am not sure about either one, but my allocation decisions based on both should not interfere with my long game unduly. Hope this has something to do with the topic, otw - apologies. Sure, inflation is here, you know my opinion about the future. The bigger question for me is what most should do about it? IMO, most should do nothing or very little about it because stocks + bonds are where most should be. I don't believe most investors should slice and dice and/or invest in a narrow category and/or use single stocks. Inflation didn't affect stocks, SP500 is up YTD 16+%. Bonds: in theory rates should be much higher, but they are not because the Fed is controlling the rate. If your bonds are used for ballast then using higher-rated is the place to be. I don't like treasuries, but core plus managed funds such as GIBLX+DODIX which I preferred for years over only treasuries. For others who like to make money in other categories (Munis+Multi sector funds). If you must do something, I look at the big picture, value vs growth, US vs inter, stocks vs bonds. Sure, keep tweaking your explore portion. Stocks:EM was better in the first months, then value was better and now QQQ is doing better. The easiest place to be is the SP500 and it's tilted toward big global tech which can be growth + value per several opinions since they are making so much money and very profitable. Another good option is to find several great managers you trust and let them make these decisions. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 21, 2021 20:13:52 GMT
For myself, I don't need more money. But, I don't want to lose what I have. So, I'm not increasing equities above my target allocation, not at these prices. Even though I fully grasp the problem with holding cash and vanilla bonds. N. I am in same position. However, I view my cash position as one of waiting for opportunities to get clearer...I call it my PATIENCE ETF! And for vanilla bonds, the question is why hold any of intermediate or longer term duration? An intermediate term BF might get you about 1 - 1.5% more annual yield than short term vanilla bond funds; however, you expose yourself to much larger fund price/NAV risks with both convexity affects, AND if rates go up, NAV declines of a goodly magnitude. That is, 10 year Treasury yield at 2.25%-2.5% means a significant decline in bond fund NAVs. And when (not if) the fed stops the bond QE support--another hit likely. R48 |
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 21, 2021 20:21:01 GMT
For myself, I don't need more money. But, I don't want to lose what I have. So, I'm not increasing equities above my target allocation, not at these prices. Even though I fully grasp the problem with holding cash and vanilla bonds. N. I am in same position. However, I view my cash position as one of waiting for opportunities to get clearer...I call it my PATIENCE ETF! And for vanilla bonds, the question is why hold any of intermediate or longer term duration? An intermediate term BF might get you about 1 - 1.5% more annual yield than short term vanilla bond funds; however, you expose yourself to much larger fund price/NAV risks with both convexity affects, AND if rates go up, NAV declines of a goodly magnitude. That is, 10 year Treasury yield at 2.25%-2.5% means a significant decline in bond fund NAVs. And when (not if) the fed stops the bond QE support--another hit likely. R48 There are many retirees I know who own only 30-50% in stocks and want a portion of their bonds to do better than the typical vanilla high-rated bond funds. Image these retirees used NVHAX(HY munis) with shorter duration of about 3.7 years and made YTD=7.1%. These retirees also don't want to invest in HY or CEFs. As I said before, even for higher rated bond I prefer core plus bonds funds with more flexibility. |
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Post by bf22 on Jul 22, 2021 1:54:47 GMT
While I agree with most of what has been said here, this thread was started with the premise that it is foolish to invest based on predictions. Intelligent predictions stated that for example real estate and commodities will outperform the SP500 (at least for a while) once the economy started to recover last year. This has worked really well. E.g., TRREX and VCMDX have outperformed over the last year. I'm glad I followed those predictions. Now it is time to think about when to bring the allocations back to neutral (for me).
Good investing..
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Post by uncleharley on Jul 22, 2021 12:44:38 GMT
When one should take their profits depends, I think, on which commodities one is invested. The metals may have run their course for now, but oil and gas seem to not be ready for a correction. N G especially is approaching $5 and showing no sign of correcting. Ag commodities also have a ways to run. jmho
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 22, 2021 13:20:01 GMT
While I agree with most of what has been said here, this thread was started with the premise that it is foolish to invest based on predictions. Intelligent predictions stated that for example real estate and commodities will outperform the SP500 (at least for a while) once the economy started to recover last year. This has worked really well. E.g., TRREX and VCMDX have outperformed over the last year. I'm glad I followed those predictions. Now it is time to think about when to bring the allocations back to neutral (for me).
Good investing..
The above were great calls. VCMDX(commodities) did better because the Dollar weaken, inflation went up, bottleneck in several areas. Real Estate did better because of work from home, very low rates and the high demand by the younger and high earners to move outside of downtown. The economy rebound was a minor reason. But 1) Many predicted in January 2021 that the 10 years would be around 2% in just several months...and it's at 1.3% 2) For years now international will be better, promise, this coming year 3) Gold will do well in 2021...GLD lost 4.9 in 2021 4) Just last Monday, why not sell some to cash, after all, it was great already and now the SP500 is over 2% higher and less than 1% from all time high. 5) January-Feb on 2021, why not sell some to cash, after all, it was great already and weeks later the SP500 was at all-time high. You call it Intelligent predictions, I say MAYBE, because over the years I have seen these predictions missed their target by many analysts, at best it's at 50% success. The same analysts come up with 3-4 predictions, and half are wrong. The other main problems, It's trading and timing, when to buy and when to sell? Is the trade for several weeks/months/years? What % should I invest in trading? Do I want to trade big picture or categories? If I want to slice and dice How do I find the next big idea? Is it my research? Do I listen to a specific analyst? Do I follow the consensus? At what % these predictions worked? Basically, predictions mean trading and timing, and that's not easy. |
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Post by jcserc on Jul 22, 2021 13:23:29 GMT
Isn't investing, by definition, based on predictions? The value of a company is meant to reflect the present value of all future cash flows...Well, aren't those future cash flows derived via forecasts...and isn't the definition of forecast to "predict or estimate (a future event or trend)"?
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Post by steelpony10 on Jul 22, 2021 14:58:18 GMT
Isn't investing, by definition, based on predictions? The value of a company is meant to reflect the present value of all future cash flows...Well, aren't those future cash flows derived via forecasts...and isn't the definition of forecast to "predict or estimate (a future event or trend)"? That’s what I think. Facts. An investor holds onto an investment until the financial permanently change or he finds something better to invest in. That’s buy and hold. Many aren’t using those facts only they’re timing in and out of markets based on headlines or what they think the future holds. They also hold substandard performing positions “thinking” that will change in the future. Those are market timers a disproven investment technique. |
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Post by johntaylor on Jul 22, 2021 16:22:47 GMT
Yep, even investors (like me) who don't formulate expected returns with precise figures are making implicit forecasts with asset allocation
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 22, 2021 19:41:57 GMT
Isn't investing, by definition, based on predictions? The value of a company is meant to reflect the present value of all future cash flows...Well, aren't those future cash flows derived via forecasts...and isn't the definition of forecast to "predict or estimate (a future event or trend)"? You are talking about a company, I'm talking about an index/funds/ETF which is what most hold. Then there are other categories. Even stocks can go a lot higher/lower regardless of your predictions. It's not a guarantee. If all you need to know is the cash flow, millions would use the same companies. Did TSLA had a great cash flow in 2011-14? No, many predicted TSLA would go out of business, in fact their cash flow was negative until 2017, but the stock made 10+ times the SP500. See below ====================== Millions hold the SP500 for years because it's just a good index, and why Buffett recommends it, too. Should you sell the SP500 base on "the present value of all future cash flows"? Hardly ever. Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on Jul 23, 2021 2:21:41 GMT
While I agree with most of what has been said here, this thread was started with the premise that it is foolish to invest based on predictions. Intelligent predictions stated that for example real estate and commodities will outperform the SP500 (at least for a while) once the economy started to recover last year. This has worked really well. E.g., TRREX and VCMDX have outperformed over the last year. I'm glad I followed those predictions. Now it is time to think about when to bring the allocations back to neutral (for me).
Good investing..
Fair enough, newzg... But a point regarding nomenclature. I view predictions as something like stating where the DJIA will be on 31 Dec 2021. I view allocation and fund selections, as not predictions, but concluding assessments on what will be the best investment spaces going forward. That is, you ALWAYS have to own something, even cash under a mattress. Put another way, you bought TRREX and VCMDX with a goal they would increase in price. However, if your two funds lost 2%, and all other funds declined by 30%, you would still be feeling pretty good about your choices. No predictions necessary. At least for me, I never have a target price in mind when buying a mutual fund. And as Buffett often says, when I buy my goal is to hold forever! (I guess that is why I have owned a specific mutual fund for 68 years). R48 |
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bf22
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Post by bf22 on Jul 23, 2021 3:01:57 GMT
While I agree with most of what has been said here, this thread was started with the premise that it is foolish to invest based on predictions. Intelligent predictions stated that for example real estate and commodities will outperform the SP500 (at least for a while) once the economy started to recover last year. This has worked really well. E.g., TRREX and VCMDX have outperformed over the last year. I'm glad I followed those predictions. Now it is time to think about when to bring the allocations back to neutral (for me).
Good investing..
Fair enough, newzg... But a point regarding nomenclature. I view predictions as something like stating where the DJIA will be on 31 Dec 2021. I view allocation and fund selections, as not predictions, but concluding assessments on what will be the best investment spaces going forward. That is, you ALWAYS have to own something, even cash under a mattress. Put another way, you bought TRREX and VCMDX with a goal they would increase in price. However, if your two funds lost 2%, and all other funds declined by 30%, you would still be feeling pretty good about your choices. No predictions necessary. At least for me, I never have a target price in mind when buying a mutual fund. And as Buffett often says, when I buy my goal is to hold forever! (I guess that is why I have owned a specific mutual fund for 68 years). R48 +1
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Post by Norbert on Jul 23, 2021 5:11:22 GMT
Good posts.
I will add that our partner in crime @slooow appears to be investing based on PREDICTIONS at present.
As I understand it, she has now increased her equity percentage above her normal target allocation. That's not because a certain guru told her to do it; it's because she thinks equities will continue to outperform during a period of higher inflation, easy money, and strong economic growth.
Is she smart or foolish? Time will tell. But, she's definitely making a prediction. Not a specific S&P 500 level by a certain moment, but continued strong equities outperformance.
I'll just add that she's not investing in an index; she owns individual stocks that she thinks offer strong return potential. So, she's making "predictions" on individual stocks in addition to equities in general.
N.
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Post by ignatz on Jul 23, 2021 5:30:35 GMT
.............Is she smart or foolish? Time will tell.
Will time tell if she's merely right or wrong, lucky or unlucky......as opposed to smart or foolish?
What's the proper inference if her decision in this instance proves to be more profitable than some other decision?
That's an underlying problem for most investment results. Mine included.
Insoluble on this forum.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 23, 2021 5:56:08 GMT
.............Is she smart or foolish? Time will tell.
Will time tell if she's merely right or wrong, lucky or unlucky......as opposed to smart or foolish?
What's the proper inference if her decision in this instance proves to be more profitable than some other decision?
That's an underlying problem for most investment results. Mine included.
Insoluble on this forum.
You're right, of course. And it's not just investment results! I like to think that I'm pretty smart. But, many years ago I happened to be standing by the University of Michigan business school placement office, when they hung up a sign-up sheet for interviews with an oil major. There were only four interview slots. I immediately grabbed one if them. The other three disappeared in minutes. My life changed based on luck. (Of course, getting the interview didn't mean getting a job; that part involved more than luck.) It will be interesting to review @slooow 's decision in the future. Regarding investing, I'm proud of certain calculated risks I've taken. Less proud of certain knee-jerk decisions. @slooow has given the matter careful thought. Over time I'm guessing she generates her own luck. She won't be right every time, but likely more often than not. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2021 11:16:29 GMT
Have to agree. I am heavy individual equities for 8 years now. My returns have mirrored the S&P, but with higher yield. This is a long term decision based on the PREDICTION (personal) that market returns over the long haul will approach the average historic market return. I make this prediction, because, like a market basket of stocks, I am diversified. Hindsight being 20-20, an S&P index would have been just as good. I don’t know if that will be the case in the next 10 years, but I do predict reversion to the mean. Also, the S&P index, on its own, is not diversifies among stock style or geographically.
Luck - I picked some great growth stocks early on. One based on its dividend at the time. AAPL.
Allocation - I have an IPS which lets me set my allocation range each year. This year I can go to 15% cash and tsp G fund. I’m at 19%. No prediction needed to invest as little as possible in something with a negative return.
I predict inflation will be persistent and higher than “expected” and the Fed will raise rates (which will still be low) and p/es will compress based on expected/predicted future cash flows. If my crystal ball is correct, that is where my 4% available for allocation will go. If not, it will stay at 19%.
So Norbert it correct. I am not calling boxcars at the craps table, nor am I hiding wads of cash under the mattress (same as holding treasuries in my opinion). Every investment decision I make is based on a “prediction.” It’s the only game in town.
Edit - yes - I raised my allocation to equities based on the “predicition” there would be a reopening this year and the negative bond returns. That “prediction” is based on well known and studied macro economic factors. Certain - no; more probable than not? In my estimation - yes. I did buy a few companies I thought would do well - Fidelity National Financial, 3M, Truist Financial and Kirkland Lake Gold. One undervalued growth - BABA and one for the craps table - UBER. Also bought FRIFX (real estate play). Funds this year - VBR, VO, FBIOX, FSPHX, IXUS, IEMG, FEMKX, FIGRX, AIA - all these funds/etfs are to diversify from large cap, to buy undervalued Health Care sector, and to add international diversification. All based on my “prediction” of lower for longer and reversion to the mean. Foolish or not? I’m diversified so laissez les bon temps rouler no matter what.
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Post by Chahta on Jul 23, 2021 11:51:39 GMT
Norbert , retiredat48 have made it clear. Saying the S&P will hit a certain number by XXX is a prediction. But adjusting your portfolio to mirror your thoughts on where the economy is headed is simply strategic planning on your part.
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Post by paulr888 on Jul 23, 2021 13:24:07 GMT
I too am diversified but I predict nothing. I let the predictions to smarter people than me. I listen however. And I hope my portfolio is an "all bases covered" one, no matter what predicted or surprise event comes our way.
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Post by ignatz on Jul 23, 2021 13:43:21 GMT
I hope my portfolio is an "all bases covered" one, no matter what predicted or surprise event comes our way.
I hope as well, but history has told me that "surprises" most often seem to be on the downside. You thought you'd lose 20% in a 35% SP decline, but actually lost 27...that type of thing. Or maybe it's just another version of the maxim that there's more pain in a loss of X than pleasure in a gain of X.
When the very long term trend is up it's tough not to exaggerate your loss tolerance. After you are then backhanded, the pain eventually dissipates and you repeat the cycle.
Which reminds me....is there anyone who owns no equities other than VT? I suppose even that would be a "prediction" of sorts. I've got half a mind to try it but it would make me appear too common. Bad form around here, considering how I derive my self-esteem entirely from the opinion of others.
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Post by richardsok on Jul 23, 2021 16:00:41 GMT
I hope my portfolio is an "all bases covered" one, no matter what predicted or surprise event comes our way.
I hope as JSD well, but history has told me that "surprises" most often seem to be on the downside. You thought you'd lose 20% in a 35% SP decline, but actually lost 27...that type of thing. Or maybe it's just another version of the maxim that there's more pain in a loss of X AUY than pleasure in a gain of X.
When the very long term trend is up it's tough not to exaggerate your loss tolerance. After you are then backhanded, the pain eventually dissipates and you repeat the cycle.
Which reminds me....is there anyone who owns no equities other than VT? I suppose even that would be a "prediction" of sorts. I've got half a mind to try it but it would make me appear too common. Bad form around here, considering how I derive my self-esteem entirely from the opinion of others.
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(ignatz -- don't know how my follow-up to your post appeared like this. I had intended to reply to paul. sorry)
Not to start a spat -- but I doubt there's anything even approximating an "all bases covered" portfolio without a significant protective bearish hedge. I know that's hard to do at all-times high, ten years into a terrific bull market; short term it's almost guaranteed to lose money -- but one day ..... diversification as we commonly understand it will avail us very little.
Frankly, I hop between bafflement and fear these days. I am convinced hard-core inflation is not off in our future sometime, but that it is here NOW -- and yet gold doesn't respond. I read the Fed has pumped out more liquidity in the past year and a half than it has in its entire previous existence, with congressional intent of more trillions to come . And yet our "no consequences" market just chugs along.
I do note that market "down days" plunge harder & faster than "good days" climb. But maybe it's almost always like that.
Anyway, I try to take consolation in the often noted notion that people like me are already winners. With savings, real estate, pension, Soc Sec, lovely wife, health, etc -- I no longer have to win anything; I just have to avoid losing. But that's hardly a satisfying attitude for one who spends so much time watching his investments.
Perhaps for now my best choice is - do nothing. I may make a few small transactions here and there but for now am not making any big moves. All in all, I feel sort of stuck.
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