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Post by bb2 on Nov 26, 2021 16:36:30 GMT
What a rout. Everything I've bought in the last few months is down 2-10%. Airbus is the 10%. Only NFLX is up. AMZN was up but now down. Not finding anything cheap enough to buy yet for me.
Re Bitcoin - Had a discussion with a believer who told me it will hit 80K by year end. When I asked for an explanation, he had none, so I offered that since the boosters' call of 100K wasn't going to happen, why not pick 80K? He thought that was about right. He also said he'd just bought more around 60K. His original buy was at 5k. Also talked to am ex-wall street guy (who now just bets on sports) about BTC and even he won't touch it. Has no clue why it exists. Agreed with me that the BTC price must be highly manipulated. Also, when a new BTC ETF guy was asked on CNBC about existential threats from governments, quantum computing, etc., he answered a completely different question, or ignored it, saying, "You need to buy bitcoin as an inflation hedge." Interviewer didn't call him on it.
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bf22
Commander
Posts: 135
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Post by bf22 on Nov 26, 2021 16:58:04 GMT
Can anyone tell me what the fundamental value of a Bitcoin is? 1 bitcoin
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Post by bb2 on Nov 26, 2021 17:05:10 GMT
This could get much worse. WSJ article, www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-new-variant-of-covid-19-spreading-in-southern-africa-11637935500The mutations found in B.1.1.529 include ones that haven’t been detected before as well as some that have. Some of the known mutations have made other variants faster spreading or more able to evade parts of the immune response prompted by vaccination or a previous Covid-19 infection. It isn’t yet known how this variant’s mutations will affect the spread of the virus, but the scientists are alarmed by the number of changes compared with the original Wuhan version of the virus and the rapid increase of cases in South Africa since the strain was first detected. and... Already, the variant is driving an exponential increase in infections in South Africa, from less than 300 new daily cases just over two weeks ago to more than 2,400 new cases on Thursday. That, scientists say, suggests that it may be more contagious than the Delta variant that was until recently dominant in the country. Edit: adding context: S. Africa has a low, 24% vax rate, so there's that. Gotlieb, my go-to guy for everything covid, isn't panicking. Thinks existing shot will retain a good level of efficacy, maybe 70%. Basically, all our covid tools will remain effective, if a bit diminished. Says literature suggests the more mutations, (This new one, (Nu?), has about 50, which is a lot), the less contagious. It'll be a couple weeks before we have a good idea of what's going on.
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Post by Chahta on Nov 26, 2021 17:08:09 GMT
Can anyone tell me what the fundamental value of a Bitcoin is? 1 bitcoin So no (0) fundamental value.
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 26, 2021 17:20:49 GMT
What actions are you planning to take today? 1. Buy more stock 2. Sell some of yours bonds 3. Do nothing I am planning to do #1 and (to some extent) #2 Interesting. Thought you were bonds full steam ahead. Which ones are you selling? Chahta, I ended up doing #1 and very little #2 (sold some Munis that performed well this year). You are astute - I am still a bond bull.
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 26, 2021 17:25:54 GMT
So no (0) fundamental value. Chahta, bitcoin (and most other cryptos) have no fundamental value. This is another example of irrational exuberance. and froth in the market.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 26, 2021 18:28:11 GMT
bb2 , Thanks! Variant of concern for now, but maybe called the Nu variant. What gets me is that this next wave is essentially inevitable. Covid isn't going to just die out until everybody has immunity to it. Anyhow, the truly unpredictable part of this is how people are going to react.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 26, 2021 18:30:16 GMT
Actually, the WSJ article reported that this strain was easier to detect.
They didn't have to do much elaborate testing to ID it.
Still, hysteria can be unpredictable.
The real challenge will be timing of any buys.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 26, 2021 18:39:44 GMT
about BITCOIN; Here is an excerpt from the JPM 2022 LTC Market Assumption Report (page 45): - While there is great investor interest in cryptocurrencies, their role in portfolios is still evolving. They look like highly speculative assets, with high volatility, unreliable correlations and a significant risk of their values eventually falling to zero. They could, however, have limited uses as call options on the development of blockchain technology itself.
- Private sector stablecoins, while less risky than market-priced cryptocurrencies, provide less security than commercial or central bank deposits and are likely to be the subject of ongoing regulatory scrutiny and tightening.
- Despite the limitations of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, central bank digital currencies are likely to be introduced in the years ahead. Such a transition should be achievable, if done correctly, without significant financial disruption.
- While some central bank digital currencies may include elements of blockchain ledgers, the utopian (or dystopian) ideal of authority-free and decentralized financial systems, allegedly enabled by blockchain technology, will likely fade in the years ahead.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 26, 2021 18:39:58 GMT
Dear Norbi, The above is just a lie. Pure and simple. No other way to describe it. There is no way to get my portfolio performance + SD with hindsight trades. It's a pretty simple fact. Last year I challenged you to the following: we will do a Zoom meeting, I will show you my results live/online at Schwab and then you will post back that you lie about me and you are wrong. As expected, you folded pretty quickly. The only schtick is what you are doing. Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean people don’t like you. FD, does it occur to you that you have been at the center of almost all discord on this as well as other forums? It is true that you don’t stoop to name calling and mudslinging, but at some point, the straws you keep adding to the proverbial camel are beyond tiresome. I can only assume that you want to voice your opinions so others will hear them. Or are you talking to yourself? Does it occur to you that when people are suggesting that you be put on ignore that maybe your behavior is counterproductive? You have some worthwhile points to offer but your chest beating is not encouraging others to take you seriously. You may want to reconsider the sociopathic need to always have the last word. Sometimes the most profound comment is no comment at all. Let's look at the facts. Who derailed this thread? Who posted things beyond this scope of this thread? Who started the personal attack? Who doesn't follow this site guideline.... "Personal attacks, snipes and trolling are antithetical to the aims outlined above. These will be strongly discouraged.
I started and maintained this thread with opinions and facts. Sure, I have strong opinions, you could make some money based on that. If you think my opinions are useless, just disregard them.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 26, 2021 19:22:41 GMT
The early reports are that it is unlikely that the current vaccines will be very effective against the new variant. Something about a different protien spike. I hope the powers-that-be take immediate action in terms of stopping flights from/to South Africa in order to contain the spread until more information is gathered. They have.
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Post by chang on Nov 26, 2021 19:37:18 GMT
Thread locked at OP’s request.
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