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Post by flipperxxx on Oct 22, 2021 11:27:51 GMT
why not use something like SPXL and make 6-7% instead of 2%? seems to me when you have the courage of your convictions, that'd be a better bet. or put less in and still make more. then again, ifn you're wrong ...
I really don't need these trades, my portfolio performance is much higher than our needs. I just do it for fun and a proof for myself how "easy" it is when you follow strict rules with good criteria. Your idea isn't bad. My style has been mostly lower risk, but I do sometimes use SP500 at 150%(RYNAX) which is the max for me.
so you'd use an OEF for trades this short, meaning you only get end-of-day pricing? hmmm. i've been trying (with tiny amounts of money) some mean reversion trades, using things like SPXL, buying only on days with extreme sells offs (-1900 or worse advance/decline near the close) and sub-30 RSI-5 readings, among other things. so far, 100% success, trades lasting just a few days, returns around 5-7%, but having said that, i best knock on wood and keep my trades small. i've always failed at momentum trades with anything other than bonds, so this other approach has made me very happy, tho not much richer at all.
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 22, 2021 13:43:55 GMT
I really don't need these trades, my portfolio performance is much higher than our needs. I just do it for fun and a proof for myself how "easy" it is when you follow strict rules with good criteria. Your idea isn't bad. My style has been mostly lower risk, but I do sometimes use SP500 at 150%(RYNAX) which is the max for me.
so you'd use an OEF for trades this short, meaning you only get end-of-day pricing? hmmm. i've been trying (with tiny amounts of money) some mean reversion trades, using things like SPXL, buying only on days with extreme sells offs (-1900 or worse advance/decline near the close) and sub-30 RSI-5 readings, among other things. so far, 100% success, trades lasting just a few days, returns around 5-7%, but having said that, i best knock on wood and keep my trades small. i've always failed at momentum trades with anything other than bonds, so this other approach has made me very happy, tho not much richer at all.
I used to trade ETF but I can't anymore. I'm invested at 99+% and I can't sell OEF to buy ETF on the same day, I can only do it with OEF. Schwab used to let you do it but no more. If I want to trade ETF I must have the cash in my IRA but I don't want cash any time. Rydex funds also have SP500 at 200%.If you look at my chart and the explanation, these trades are not often. I have used momentum since 2000 with other criteria but these are longer term trades that last months-years. It's ( here). Basically since retirement, I use short term trades only for risky stuff and longer term trades depend on risk-reward + momentum for bond funds.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2021 14:53:32 GMT
Still, no changes needed, boring is good. VIX around 17 means risk is on.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 12, 2021 16:44:11 GMT
ahhh, but while one is sleeping there's a little mouse named inflation that's nibbling away!
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2021 18:59:18 GMT
ahhh, but while one is sleeping there's a little mouse named inflation that's nibbling away! There is nothing to do about inflation, unless it's been for years. Inflation does lower your portfolio value.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 25, 2021 15:22:53 GMT
This is probably going to be my last specific observation for 2021 in this thread. I just wanted to prove several points.
1) From my OP * Calling for market tops is a fool’s errand. * Taking a short position based on the above is a double fool’s errand because if you are wrong you lose twice. * Investing based on predictions is another fool’s errand. Many have been off by months and years. Investing based on what happened lately and current is more accurate, it can't be wrong too long. * If you want to be a trader then be a trader and be sure it has been working for you for years for real, just be honest with yourself.
As a trader for many years: a) I didn't see any extreme market conditions in 2021. I was invested at 99+% every day in 2021. This would be the case regardless of what I own (stocks or bonds) b) Based on current and lately market conditions and big picture, I posted the followings: I started with SP500+AIA+IWM On April 1: sold AIA+IWM and bought value (VOOV,VTV,SCHD). If you had growth, you sold it too. On June 25: sold value and bought growth (VOOG,VUG,QQQ). Basically, only traded twice in 2021 while there were enough swings for many investors to make more changes. The key is to make very a few trades and understand what is a real change and what is not c) These trades don't guarantee the best performance, but they make sure for you to be in the right categories and may reduce volatility. A great example was EM stocks that include even better funds (such Matthews) than EEM. From 1-1-21 to 4-1-2021 EEM made 3.55%. Since April 1st (sold EM), EEM lost 5.33% while VFIAX(SP500) made 18%. This is 23% better + SP500 volatility was lower, too. Since April 1st (sold IWM), the SP500 did much better than IWM 18% vs 4%. Switching from value to growth on June 25 was another great move. VOOG(growth) made 16% while VOOV made only 4.3%. This is almost 4 time more. d) You don't need 15 funds, just 5 (up to 7) is a good number. It's also a lot easier to trade and make changes. You also don't need anything fancy or unique such as CEFs, BDCs, currencies and other alternatives.
===========
From the OP:*Bonds: if you want to make money (more than 3-4%) don’t be in higher rated bond funds. My long term favorites are HY Munis + Multisector/NonTrad.
While almost every expert told you at the beginning of the year, there is no solutions, I gave you 2 categories that had good performance if you selected the right funds. It's not a secret I mentioned HY Munis many times and this year I preferred Nuveen funds (NHMAX, NVHAX). BTW, my relatives invested most/all of their bond portion in only one fund, NVHAX, with no trades. They made YTD 8%. Again, concentration and find the right fund is the key. Why NVHAX? Because rates had to go up, they were very low coming from 2020 and NVHAX is a shorter-term HY Muni fund with better ability to fight rising rates. This was another proof that you can make money in a rising rates markets.
So, what's next? Same as above, markets tell me where to be + understanding big picture helps + adding salt and pepper and I can always find options. When I can't find reasonable solutions + market don't look logical + volatility is extreme high...I'm out, and that happens very seldom. It's also not a secret that it's much easier to make money in a leading category than a lagging one. BTW, how many "experts" told you again that EM stock are going to be great in 2021? How many told you that, finally, value stocks will beat growth? Many also told you the Dollar will lose too. Markets have other ideas.
Happy Thanksgiving.
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Post by Karen on Nov 25, 2021 17:28:15 GMT
Interesting, albeit your usual braggart comments.
But after ALL THAT you are still reportedly only up ~12% this year while the proverbial dummy AJI again blows your doors away. Yeah, yeah, we all know you only need 4% annually and you're all about risk-adjusted TRs.
"...While almost every expert told you at the beginning of the year, there is no solutions, I gave you..." Duh, just about EVERY former colleague of my husband's and every article we read at YE 2020 pointed to HY Munis as likely one of the best the places to be in bonds in 2021. But thanks for giving us peons your gifts.
At least that's your last post on this thread for this year.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 25, 2021 18:34:50 GMT
Interesting, albeit your usual braggart comments. But after ALL THAT you are still reportedly only up ~12% this year while the proverbial dummy AJI again blows your doors away. Yeah, yeah, we all know you only need 4% annually and you're all about risk-adjusted TRs. "...While almost every expert told you at the beginning of the year, there is no solutions, I gave you..." Duh, just about EVERY former colleague of my husband's and every article we read at YE 2020 pointed to HY Munis as likely one of the best the places to be in bonds in 2021. But thanks for giving us peons your gifts. At least that's your last post on this thread for this year. This thread was not about how I invest but if you really want to know... I retired in 2018. We require about 4% annually(including inflation) in the next 40+ years to sustain our standard of living and retain most of the assets. With that in mind, I want to make it with the lowest volatility (SD<3). The portfolio actual results in the last 3 years are: performance=14.4% annually...SD=2.2...Sharpe ratio is about 5. Looks like I made 3.5 times more than our needs.
But wait, In 2020, I had only one week loss at -0.3%. I made money every week in March 2020 when many lost a lot of money. In 2021 only one week -0.1. Since 01/2018, my portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top.
I'm pretty happy with the above and I'm sure that your husband and his pro colleagues can't achieve it either (see Sharp=5)
So far, I see only insults about my posts. As you found out, it will not stop my posts. You are not the first or last. I would encourage you to post YOUR OWN thoughts instead of concentrating on someone else. I would love to see your predictions, funds and everything else for 2022. Please open a new thread.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 25, 2021 19:23:17 GMT
Interesting, albeit your usual braggart comments. But after ALL THAT you are still reportedly only up ~12% this year while the proverbial dummy AJI again blows your doors away. Yeah, yeah, we all know you only need 4% annually and you're all about risk-adjusted TRs. "...While almost every expert told you at the beginning of the year, there is no solutions, I gave you..." Duh, just about EVERY former colleague of my husband's and every article we read at YE 2020 pointed to HY Munis as likely one of the best the places to be in bonds in 2021. But thanks for giving us peons your gifts. At least that's your last post on this thread for this year. Karen , please can we take a break from the vitriol for Thanksgiving🙏🏼🦃? I know that FD gets on your last nerve but, as mentioned before, it’s easy to ignore. Thank you and I wish you and your husband a pleasant day. We all have a lot to be thankful for that we can spend time on an investment forum instead of many other less desirable activities. Stay well, RM
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Post by chang on Nov 25, 2021 21:47:41 GMT
Karen, I have asked you several times to ignore (using the "Block" feature) posters who irritate you. Instead all of your recent posts have been trolling FD. That goes against the board guidelines ( link). So I am giving you a 7-day suspension and asking you please to avoid personal attacks after you've had a breather.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 26, 2021 7:03:55 GMT
KarenIt's the Internet. The best policy here is to ignore certain posters. Nothing will change because of your observations, however accurate. I recall running an annual "Portfolio Challenge" (a.k.a. an investing contest) years ago at M*. Our rule was that portfolios could be changed as often as you wished, but that all trades had to be posted in real time. No hindsight trades! FD joined us for the 2nd year. I noticed that his results were negative after a few months. He then resigned the challenge. FD is a smart guy, but has a near pathological need to always be right. You will hear much about his brilliant trades, but always selectively, with the benefit of hindsight. As embarrassing as the situation is, it's the Internet. I happen to think that he poisons the forum environment, but others see value. So it goes. I am not the forum moderator. I now post here less, given that every thread I've started has been taken off topic by FD with his usual schtick. Just use the "Ignore" feature and move on. N.
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Post by oldskeet on Nov 26, 2021 9:24:15 GMT
Hi guys, Is it time to buckel up this day November 26, 2021? The major stock futures are negative in the major indexes this morning as I write. Perhaps, bonds will have another day of sunshine today. "Aint" investing interesting? OS
Additional Comment: From Barrons ...
Fear, Not Calculated Trading, Is Behind Today’s Covid Market Crash Gathering over Thanksgiving may have lulled many into feeling that the pandemic is over. Looking at the stock market today will shatter that illusion .
Concerns around a new, heavily-mutated variant of Covid-19 identified in South Africa have rocked investor confidence. Stocks are plunging around the world, oil prices are dropping, bond yields are sliding—even Bitcoin is feeling the heat. There is a broad reversion to frenzied, theme-based trading. Vaccine stocks and pandemic plays like Zoom are surging while airline stocks are falling.
What we are seeing is fear and uncertainty. Sell first, ask questions later. And low trading volumes globally due to the Thanksgiving holiday is likely exacerbating volatility.
What we are not seeing is markets intelligently pricing in the impact of this new development. Scientific experts have yet to draw conclusions about the mutation, known for now as B.1.1.529, and there are less than 100 confirmed cases.
That’s not to say fear is misplaced. Early indications are that B.1.1.529 is significantly different from other variants, and, truly, the worst case scenario is that it’s more deadly, contagious, and vaccine-resistant than what we’ve already faced.
But we don’t know that yet. Similar market shockwaves caused by the Delta variant over the summer eventually subsided. Though it led to a surge in cases around the world, modern science was able to tackle it and move on. Hopefully the same can be said of this variant.
But for now investors will have to put up with heightened uncertainty—the markets’ worst enemy.
—Jack Denton
New Covid-19 Variant Triggers Wave of Travel Restrictions European and Asian governments were scrambling Friday to impose new travel restrictions over concerns that a heavily mutated coronavirus strain, first identified in Botswana, could prove vaccine-resistant and possibly spread faster than previous variants.
The strain, called B.1.1.529, is “themost worrying that we’ve seen,” according to Dr. Susan Hopkins, the chief medical advisor to the U.K. Health and Security Agency. However, the data is limited and experts are working to understand its true impact. The U.K., Germany, Italy and Singapore Friday imposed bans on entry from South Africa and neighboring African countries, and the European Commission is proposing member states to activate the “emergency brake” allowing a ban of air travel from the region. The World Health Organization is due to meet Friday to decide whether to classify the new variant as one “of interest” or, more seriously, “of concern.” According to a South African scientist 90% of the cases in the Gauteng region around Johannesburg are due to the new strain. Hong Kong and Israel officials said they had already identified cases of the new variant in travelers that had been to South Africa. What’s Next: Beyond the immediate travel bans, the fear of the virus, if it persists in the next few days, is likely to lead to restrictions even more severe than the ones that were already being considered to counter the current, fast-spreading wave of the virus in Europe.
—Pierre Briançon
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Post by chang on Nov 26, 2021 11:47:37 GMT
Hi guys, Is it time to buckel up this day November 26, 2021? The major stock futures are negative in the major indexes this morning as I write. Perhaps, bonds will have another day of sunshine today. "Aint" investing interesting? OS If this is just another Covid scare, I think we’ve seen how this goes. B…T…
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Post by Chahta on Nov 26, 2021 11:57:23 GMT
Just opened Yahoo Finance to see -792 Dow. Yikes. Buying opportunities headed our way.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 26, 2021 12:41:21 GMT
Hi guys, Is it time to buckel up this day November 26, 2021? The major stock futures are negative in the major indexes this morning as I write. Perhaps, bonds will have another day of sunshine today. "Aint" investing interesting? OS If this is just another Covid scare, I think we’ve seen how this goes. B…T… As long as the vaccines continue to work. Stay tuned ...
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Post by Chahta on Nov 26, 2021 12:59:53 GMT
I think this is more than Covid. I think inflation and the whole supply thing is involved. With the stupid spending going on the country is a mess right now.
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 26, 2021 13:36:58 GMT
Just opened Yahoo Finance to see -792 Dow. Yikes. Buying opportunities headed our way. Bitcoin is dropping the most. Reportedly it is down 20% from its all time high. It has been correcting for a couple of weeks.
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Post by Chahta on Nov 26, 2021 13:38:17 GMT
Can anyone tell me what the fundamental value of a Bitcoin is?
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 26, 2021 13:39:04 GMT
If this is just another Covid scare, I think we’ve seen how this goes. B…T… As long as the vaccines continue to work. Stay tuned ... The early reports are that it is unlikely that the current vaccines will be very effective against the new variant. Something about a different protien spike.
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 26, 2021 13:43:08 GMT
As long as the vaccines continue to work. Stay tuned ... The early reports are that it is unlikely that the current vaccines will be very effective against the new variant. Something about a different protien spike. I hope the powers-that-be take immediate action in terms of stopping flights from/to South Africa in order to contain the spread until more information is gathered.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 26, 2021 13:43:27 GMT
Karen It's the Internet. The best policy here is to ignore certain posters. Nothing will change because of your observations, however accurate. I recall running an annual "Portfolio Challenge" (a.k.a. an investing contest) years ago at M*. Our rule was that portfolios could be changed as often as you wished, but that all trades had to be posted in real time. No hindsight trades! FD joined us for the 2nd year. I noticed that his results were negative after a few months. He then resigned the challenge. FD is a smart guy, but has a near pathological need to always be right. You will hear much about his brilliant trades, but always selectively, with the benefit of hindsight. As embarrassing as the situation is, it's the Internet. I happen to think that he poisons the forum environment, but others see value. So it goes. I am not the forum moderator. I now post here less, given that every thread I've started has been taken off topic by FD with his usual schtick. Just use the "Ignore" feature and move on. N. Dear Norbi, The above is just a lie. Pure and simple. No other way to describe it. There is no way to get my portfolio performance + SD with hindsight trades. It's a pretty simple fact. Last year I challenged you to the following: we will do a Zoom meeting, I will show you my results live/online at Schwab and then you will post back that you lie about me and you are wrong. As expected, you folded pretty quickly. The only schtick is what you are doing.
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 26, 2021 13:43:40 GMT
What actions are you planning to take today?
1. Buy more stock 2. Sell some of yours bonds 3. Do nothing
I am planning to do #1 and (to some extent) #2
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 26, 2021 14:21:07 GMT
For the most part will stay the course
It would need to be more of a sell off for me to alter course much.
Living with volatility is a major part of the game
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Post by Chahta on Nov 26, 2021 14:39:04 GMT
What actions are you planning to take today? 1. Buy more stock 2. Sell some of yours bonds 3. Do nothing I am planning to do #1 and (to some extent) #2 Interesting. Thought you were bonds full steam ahead. Which ones are you selling?
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Post by Chahta on Nov 26, 2021 14:40:46 GMT
The early reports are that it is unlikely that the current vaccines will be very effective against the new variant. Something about a different protien spike. I hope the powers-that-be take immediate action in terms of stopping flights from/to South Africa in order to contain the spread until more information is gathered. There is no "upside" for open borders with SA.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 26, 2021 14:44:27 GMT
I think this is more than Covid. I think inflation and the whole supply thing is involved. With the stupid spending going on the country is a mess right now. I tend to agree. Also, end of the year deck re-shuffling by the 'big boys'. I have limit orders already in. We'll see.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 26, 2021 15:04:23 GMT
I'm not sure the market is down because of covid, after all, we had a similar number of cases in the last several months ( link). What am I doing? So far nothing. But I really love deep markets meltdowns, the more, the better. I love buying cheap stuff.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 26, 2021 15:49:36 GMT
Karen It's the Internet. The best policy here is to ignore certain posters. Nothing will change because of your observations, however accurate. I recall running an annual "Portfolio Challenge" (a.k.a. an investing contest) years ago at M*. Our rule was that portfolios could be changed as often as you wished, but that all trades had to be posted in real time. No hindsight trades! FD joined us for the 2nd year. I noticed that his results were negative after a few months. He then resigned the challenge. FD is a smart guy, but has a near pathological need to always be right. You will hear much about his brilliant trades, but always selectively, with the benefit of hindsight. As embarrassing as the situation is, it's the Internet. I happen to think that he poisons the forum environment, but others see value. So it goes. I am not the forum moderator. I now post here less, given that every thread I've started has been taken off topic by FD with his usual schtick. Just use the "Ignore" feature and move on. N. Dear Norbi, The above is just a lie. Pure and simple. No other way to describe it. There is no way to get my portfolio performance + SD with hindsight trades. It's a pretty simple fact. Last year I challenged you to the following: we will do a Zoom meeting, I will show you my results live/online at Schwab and then you will post back that you lie about me and you are wrong. As expected, you folded pretty quickly. The only schtick is what you are doing. Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean people don’t like you. FD, does it occur to you that you have been at the center of almost all discord on this as well as other forums? It is true that you don’t stoop to name calling and mudslinging, but at some point, the straws you keep adding to the proverbial camel are beyond tiresome. I can only assume that you want to voice your opinions so others will hear them. Or are you talking to yourself? Does it occur to you that when people are suggesting that you be put on ignore that maybe your behavior is counterproductive? You have some worthwhile points to offer but your chest beating is not encouraging others to take you seriously. You may want to reconsider the sociopathic need to always have the last word. Sometimes the most profound comment is no comment at all.
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Post by anitya on Nov 26, 2021 15:50:45 GMT
Karen It's the Internet. The best policy here is to ignore certain posters. Nothing will change because of your observations, however accurate. I recall running an annual "Portfolio Challenge" (a.k.a. an investing contest) years ago at M*. Our rule was that portfolios could be changed as often as you wished, but that all trades had to be posted in real time. No hindsight trades! FD joined us for the 2nd year. I noticed that his results were negative after a few months. He then resigned the challenge. FD is a smart guy, but has a near pathological need to always be right. You will hear much about his brilliant trades, but always selectively, with the benefit of hindsight. As embarrassing as the situation is, it's the Internet. I happen to think that he poisons the forum environment, but others see value. So it goes. I am not the forum moderator. I now post here less, given that every thread I've started has been taken off topic by FD with his usual schtick. Just use the "Ignore" feature and move on. N. Dear Norbi, The above is just a lie. Pure and simple. No other way to describe it. There is no way to get my portfolio performance + SD with hindsight trades. It's a pretty simple fact. Last year I challenged you to the following: we will do a Zoom meeting, I will show you my results live/online at Schwab and then you will post back that you lie about me and you are wrong. As expected, you folded pretty quickly. The only schtick is what you are doing. FD, Is each of the things Norbert said in the above post are a lie? If not, please point out which ones in that post are a lie. Thanks.
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bf22
Commander
Posts: 135
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Post by bf22 on Nov 26, 2021 16:26:54 GMT
What actions are you planning to take today? 1. Buy more stock 2. Sell some of yours bonds 3. Do nothing I am planning to do #1 and (to some extent) #2 Certainly getting rid of the stuffing today... I'm doing 1). I will let you know of my brilliant trades in a while. Seriously, just some SP500.
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