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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2021 15:43:26 GMT
The outsize returns are mainly due to a couple of stocks and my portfolio is a testament to that. I like holding my dividend growth stocks. I expect them to keep pace with inflation. My growth stocks that I picked - all based on value premises except AMZN - have provided overall market returns for the portfolio - probably more if I sit down and analyze cash holdings and when deployed. QQQ - great - you have some wonderful companies and some very speculative ones. Good luck. S&P indexes, VTI - same. Dominated by a few companies. I hold most of those from when they were value plays, so yes, for me value has spanked growth. It falls 10 - even 20 percent - I am still way ahead. Look - right now - everything points to a good economy. Buying assets whose value relies on low interest rates would not be my pick in a moderat inflationary environment. I want to pick what I buy. Except in China.....I want to hear from the KISS investors in 10 years.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2021 16:02:01 GMT
"Everything just seems more like a throw of the dice than it did in the past. I'd like to think that the market can hold its gains when the music (government interference) stops, but..."
I think we have to incorporate into our investing decisions the market reverts to the mean over the long run. Assuming we don't try and time it.
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bf22
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Post by bf22 on Sept 1, 2021 16:34:34 GMT
I agree with reversion to the mean. As some people here always say, the markets tell us... The markets told us last year that iff we come out of the pandemic caused downturn, some stocks will do better than others, at least for a while. For myself, I believe that I will go back to my average allocations over the next 6-12 months. Cheers.
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 2, 2021 4:29:34 GMT
A lot of stuff, but are talking around each other... It's pretty simple in practice:
No one KNOWS what WILL happen. 'Experts' can (perhaps) see parallels between what IS happening and what HAS happened and position based on the odds; in most cases, better than an individual investor can (access to more information; time availability; experience). If you are content to 'trade', then you can attempt to follow momentum - what IS happening. Also, it should be noted that it is not incorrect to say that ANY investment is a 'prediction' of future events; REGARDLESS of the methodology employed. This, if only because you're 'predicting' that what you're seeing will persist (and THAT is based on past performance; which is precisely what the 'EXPERTS' are doing). In short, the 'argument' is focusing on a triviality and a limited one at that.
The "past is prologue" pov, suggests that simply buying whatever low-cost index applies to one's needs, at whatever allocation level is comfortable, is the best way to go for most investors. No one, I suspect, is going to argue with THAT advice (DESPITE being based on what HAS happened). What is the best way to TRADE is tougher! Listen to the 'experts' (which ones)? Follow momentum (past)? Charting (past again)?
It should also be noted, FD, that you are putting yourself in an untenable position. Your posts paint you as an infalable trader; an EXPERT, if you will, but at the same time, you quite correctly indicate that 'experts' get it wrong all the time. I'm not sure you're seeing the contradiction in that... 8^b
I'm not sure why after more than 10 years and repeating my posts hundreds of time, you don't understand me. There are 1000 ways to invest from buy and hold and all the way to very fast trading. You can do OK in any of them. My comments target 2 groups. 1) The average Joe way which is guaranteed to be above average by definition. We got the research. 2) The more advanced way which may do better, but many times doesn't. IMO, performance is first, then comes risk attributes(SD, Sharpe, Sortino, Max draw). After that comes the rest. I don't care how and what you do, I only care about these two first. My portfolio is within the second category. I posted what I have done, how I tweaked it over the years( here) and the results. It's hardly based on any experts. I make comments based on both based on my logic and experience. I don't see any contradiction with that, and I have said it many times. I have followed many experts predictions and they are not accurate, actually, it's pretty stupid to make predictions because we know markets are unpredictable but these people do it anyway. Wide predictions such as "stocks will make 0 to 10% next year" are meaningless, I appreciate someone who says I don't have a clue what stocks will do because it's unpredictable. Momentum and basic T/A(just for ST trading) worked for me. It's tailored to my goals and temperament. These 2 are not based on predictions but the belief that the trend will continue, at least short term. But, the best way to make a lot more in stocks it to buy several (not many) single stocks as part of your explore portion and hold for years. I have seen it several times. I have a friend that bought one stock every year in the 90" and he still holds. Only one stock was great, MSFT, that one stock made a huge difference. Other than that, I don't believe other systems work better.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 5:32:38 GMT
"But, the best way to make a lot more in stocks it to buy several (not many) single stocks as part of your explore portion and hold for years. I have seen it several times. I have a friend that bought one stock every year in the 90" and he still holds. Only one stock was great, MSFT, that one stock made a huge difference. Other than that, I don't believe other systems work better."
I don't think buying 1 stock a year for 10 years and hoping that one is a MSFT is the best way to make a lot more in stocks, unless the investor is an expert like Peter Lynch who had over 1000 stocks in his portfolio at times.
People do have a clue what stocks will do - the market will likely return the mean average over the long run is just one. In the short term, plenty of investors seem to have a clue - just not perfect knowledge. Why recommend a stock picking strategy as one of the "best" , even if for some explorer portion, if you believe there is no clue to what it will do.
You seem to look for a preciseness in "experts" that isn't the intent. And yes, we are all making predictions - hopefully more right than wrong. This is why this goes round and round. The same things are getting said, but with different interpretations - that is what can seem inconsistent. I don't think this will get sorted out on a forum though, so am sure we will all keep trying to do our best.
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Post by racqueteer on Sept 2, 2021 9:39:06 GMT
A lot of stuff, but are talking around each other... It's pretty simple in practice:
No one KNOWS what WILL happen. 'Experts' can (perhaps) see parallels between what IS happening and what HAS happened and position based on the odds; in most cases, better than an individual investor can (access to more information; time availability; experience). If you are content to 'trade', then you can attempt to follow momentum - what IS happening. Also, it should be noted that it is not incorrect to say that ANY investment is a 'prediction' of future events; REGARDLESS of the methodology employed. This, if only because you're 'predicting' that what you're seeing will persist (and THAT is based on past performance; which is precisely what the 'EXPERTS' are doing). In short, the 'argument' is focusing on a triviality and a limited one at that.
The "past is prologue" pov, suggests that simply buying whatever low-cost index applies to one's needs, at whatever allocation level is comfortable, is the best way to go for most investors. No one, I suspect, is going to argue with THAT advice (DESPITE being based on what HAS happened). What is the best way to TRADE is tougher! Listen to the 'experts' (which ones)? Follow momentum (past)? Charting (past again)?
It should also be noted, FD, that you are putting yourself in an untenable position. Your posts paint you as an infalable trader; an EXPERT, if you will, but at the same time, you quite correctly indicate that 'experts' get it wrong all the time. I'm not sure you're seeing the contradiction in that... 8^b
I'm not sure why after more than 10 years and repeating my posts hundreds of time, you don't understand me. There are 1000 ways to invest from buy and hold and all the way to very fast trading. You can do OK in any of them. My comments target 2 groups. 1) The average Joe way which is guaranteed to be above average by definition. We got the research. 2) The more advanced way which may do better, but many times doesn't. IMO, performance is first, then comes risk attributes(SD, Sharpe, Sortino, Max draw). After that comes the rest. I don't care how and what you do, I only care about these two first. My portfolio is within the second category. I posted what I have done, how I tweaked it over the years( here) and the results. It's hardly based on any experts. I make comments based on both based on my logic and experience. I don't see any contradiction with that, and I have said it many times. I have followed many experts predictions and they are not accurate, actually, it's pretty stupid to make predictions because we know markets are unpredictable but these people do it anyway. Wide predictions such as "stocks will make 0 to 10% next year" are meaningless, I appreciate someone who says I don't have a clue what stocks will do because it's unpredictable. Momentum and basic T/A(just for ST trading) worked for me. It's tailored to my goals and temperament. These 2 are not based on predictions but the belief that the trend will continue, at least short term.But, the best way to make a lot more in stocks it to buy several (not many) single stocks as part of your explore portion and hold for years. I have seen it several times. I have a friend that bought one stock every year in the 90" and he still holds. Only one stock was great, MSFT, that one stock made a huge difference. Other than that, I don't believe other systems work better. I don't want to go back and forth on this on the open forum. If you want to discuss, we should do it through private messages or phone. I DO have to address two things, however:
1. The ONLY reference to YOU is in red above; a small part of my post and based on the perception your posts engender in others. Nothing I wrote has any bearing on whether or not your advice is valid. It's not an indictment of you, your methodology, the value of your thoughts, etc.
2. Consequently, your opening comment in green is not supported by your response. You're making it into something it was never about. In fact, I understand you better, I think, than most here. I indicated that your posts imply your expertise is superior to that of most people here and elsewhere (a reason why you get personally attacked so much). I don't see any rebuttal of what I wrote; nor am I hearing it coming from others. That you think I don't "understand you" suggests that you're not thinking about what I actually WROTE, but what you THINK I meant. I am pretty meticulous about saying precisely what I mean to say; take it at face value and don't read more into it.
3. Your comment in orange indicates you didn't understand MY point. A "belief" isn't fundamentally different from a "prediction" - THIS happened in the past; I predict/believe THAT will happen next. What you choose to CALL it is merely sophistry. Again, talking AROUND the point by using different interpretations of words.
Anything further we should discuss privately if you wish to continue.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 2, 2021 14:01:30 GMT
A lot of stuff, but are talking around each other... It's pretty simple in practice:
My portfolio is within the second category. I posted what I have done, how I tweaked it over the years(here) and the results. It's hardly based on any experts. FD1000 , Please try to refrain yourself. The linking your PB site here, should be rethought, IMO. I wish you well on your new site and am glad you have a forum to express your views. Please use restraint when promoting it here. Thanks.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 20:05:17 GMT
And yes - index investing is based on the past and the prediction the mean return will prevail. That would make me helluv nervous holding an index after the last 10 or so years along with a jacked up US treasury market due to the Fed intervention. I've been nervous for some time now, but the market, in the face of all logic, seems to be impervious to reason. I confess that I've suffered some opportunity cost by BEING "nervous"; I've been repeatedly surprised at the control the Fed has been able to enforce on the market! Most of my nervousness, I confess, is due to the handful of stocks which are supporting the advance; along with the, well, speculation that has occurred in tech to get us to this point. Couple that with the fact that the kind of 'bonds' which move counter to equity are paying nothing. The best 'bonds' now, in terms of performance, are, imo, often as 'risky' as some equity. Munis have done well, but I think that's at least partially because they suffer less from taxation. The risk involved? Well, just how many cities and states do YOU consider to be solvent and stable financially?! I get that it is often a big basket of debt instruments, and the failure of a couple wouldn't have a big impact, but how 'safe' are they in actuality?
Everything just seems more like a throw of the dice than it did in the past. I'd like to think that the market can hold its gains when the music (government interference) stops, but...
I am more nervous now. It does seem to be melting up. Daily.
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Post by Norbert on Sept 2, 2021 21:55:58 GMT
I've been nervous for some time now, but the market, in the face of all logic, seems to be impervious to reason. I confess that I've suffered some opportunity cost by BEING "nervous"; I've been repeatedly surprised at the control the Fed has been able to enforce on the market! Most of my nervousness, I confess, is due to the handful of stocks which are supporting the advance; along with the, well, speculation that has occurred in tech to get us to this point. Couple that with the fact that the kind of 'bonds' which move counter to equity are paying nothing. The best 'bonds' now, in terms of performance, are, imo, often as 'risky' as some equity. Munis have done well, but I think that's at least partially because they suffer less from taxation. The risk involved? Well, just how many cities and states do YOU consider to be solvent and stable financially?! I get that it is often a big basket of debt instruments, and the failure of a couple wouldn't have a big impact, but how 'safe' are they in actuality?
Everything just seems more like a throw of the dice than it did in the past. I'd like to think that the market can hold its gains when the music (government interference) stops, but...
I am more nervous now. It does seem to be melting up. Daily. I also believe in reversion to the mean, but who knows when? Given the alternatives, stocks could continue to melt up for years. The combined impact of the Fed's bond purchases and massive global fiscal deficits is unprecedented. We used to laugh about the politician who said, "Deficits don't matter." Now we take them for granted.
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Post by chang on Sept 2, 2021 22:12:20 GMT
I am more nervous now. It does seem to be melting up. Daily. I also believe in reversion to the mean, but who knows when? Given the alternatives, stocks could continue to melt up for years. The combined impact of the Fed's bond purchases and massive global fiscal deficits is unprecedented. We used to laugh about the politician who said, "Deficits don't matter." Now we take them for granted. Today was the first day I "sold into strength" since the March 2020 crash. I have been "letting it ride" for 18 months. But I ran X-Ray and found my equity up to 57%, when I would prefer it around 50%. That's a substantial deviation. So I lopped off about 1% of equity. I will probably continue to do so whether the market rises or falls. (In which case you may ask, "why not just trim the full 7% now?" to which my answer would be, "I don't know."). If the market keeps melting up, then I will make more money that I'll never spend. But if the market melts down, I won't ... be ... happy.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 22:20:55 GMT
Chang - interesting you say that. Just today, I am also thinking it's time to sell some holdings. I've made a list. There are some losers I want to dump. I've thought about taking 5% off everything. I wanted to wait until 3rd quarter earnings. Little concerned - not overly - that inflation will keep increasing. I am very concerned the Fed isn't raising rates or actually tapering. I think you're smart.
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Post by ignatz on Sept 3, 2021 0:31:13 GMT
And others who have an opinion:
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree?
I'm looking for a reason that goes beyond "I think", hope, rank fear, or a reading of tea leaves.
Mebbe there is nothing other than what may as well be tea leaves?
No doubt in anticipation or after can "work" when viewed in the rear view mirror, but I'm wondering what drives you to one rather than the other.
Personality?
Belief that you could not actually follow through on an "after" method, fearing that you'd be selling at a low when the slot machine handle will be pulled again on the next market day?
Deadly serious about this as I mull this over daily...as my portfolio sits at all time highs.
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Post by chang on Sept 3, 2021 0:52:54 GMT
And others who have an opinion:
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree?
I'm looking for a reason that goes beyond "I think", hope, rank fear, or a reading of tea leaves.
Mebbe there is nothing other than what may as well be tea leaves?
No doubt in anticipation or after can "work" when viewed in the rear view mirror, but I'm wondering what drives you to one rather than the other.
Personality?
Belief that you could not actually follow through on an "after" method, fearing that you'd be selling at a low when the slot machine handle will be pulled again on the next market day?
Deadly serious about this as I mull this over daily...as my portfolio sits at all time highs.
I can only speak for myself. My equity % has run up higher than I want. As erryl once said, "there's never a bad time to fix your AA." Consider it a rebalancing. But yes, of course, the market's run-up is a factor in my choosing to do it now.
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Post by ignatz on Sept 3, 2021 1:14:22 GMT
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree? I can only speak for myself. My equity % has run up higher than I want. As erryl once said, "there's never a bad time to fix your AA." Consider it a rebalancing. But yes, of course, the market's run-up is a factor in my choosing to do it now.
I see your equity hit 57, higher than you want.
Presumably your equity has meandered up past 52, 54, and 56 in recent months.
Were you telling yourself 2, 4, or 6 months ago that "I'm cutting back at 57"?
I'm sitting here at 64.3 and am toying with the idea of "I'm cutting back at 65", but I have NO clue as to whether or not that will look smart or foolish a day or decade later. FEAR, yes, but NO CLUE more valid than a coin flip.
You and I both like to quantify stuff, but it looks like we are reduced to emotion when it counts. Appalling, but not surprising.
Always liked Erryl. He helped me out in a big way by providing a fabulous Excel spreadsheet framework that I have used for close to 15 years. Didn't he sell out to a large degree based on his anticipation of the results of a presidential election? Going purely from memory.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2021 1:23:27 GMT
Ignatz - great question. I haven't really sold much in 8 years and it does not come naturally. I have some outsize positions that I think I should sell a bit of to de-risk. I am conflicted as I don't need the cash and don't have anything in mind to buy - equity or otw. I am nervous that rates are staying low so long, of rising housing prices, of rising rents not factored into CPI. Money is flowing into the market and I think that might be driving it up some. I don't understand Bitcoin. It might have been better to say I need to determine best how to derisk. This is the downside to having mainly all individual stocks. Not the best answer - sorry.
Read your comment about emotion - I think that is a real thing to deal with for every investor. I have some emotion going on. I will do better with a plan to execute.
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 3, 2021 1:42:18 GMT
It is fine to adjust allocation when it moves away from desired allocation. Note that each 1% shift of equity into cash is similar to 1.67% shift of equity into 60-40 moderate-allocation, or 2.5% shift of equity into 40-60 conservative-allocation.
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Post by chang on Sept 3, 2021 1:43:00 GMT
I can only speak for myself. My equity % has run up higher than I want. As erryl once said, "there's never a bad time to fix your AA." Consider it a rebalancing. But yes, of course, the market's run-up is a factor in my choosing to do it now.
I see your equity hit 57, higher than you want.
Presumably your equity has meandered up past 52, 54, and 56 in recent months.
Were you telling yourself 2, 4, or 6 months ago that "I'm cutting back at 57"?
I'm sitting here at 64.3 and am toying with the idea of "I'm cutting back at 65", but I have NO clue as to whether or not that will look smart or foolish a day or decade later. FEAR, yes, but NO CLUE more valid than a coin flip.
You and I both like to quantify stuff, but it looks like we are reduced to emotion when it counts. Appalling, but not surprising.
Always liked Erryl. He helped me out in a big way by providing a fabulous Excel spreadsheet framework that I have used for close to 15 years. Didn't he sell out to a large degree based on his anticipation of the results of a presidential election? Going purely from memory.
Very astute point -- why sell at 57%, not 55%, or ...? Well, my AA algorithm sends a sell signal when equity reaches a percentage X which can be expressed in the form X = AB + BA for some integers A and B (note that 57 = 25 + 32 = 5 2 + 2 5). Just kidding, that's a load of BS. Actually, I mentioned last weekend (forgot where I posted it) that I would consider selling during the upcoming week, and as the market kept going up [and I ran an X-Ray on Wednesday] I just decided the time had come. I wish I had a more disciplined answer to give you, but I don't.
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Post by Norbert on Sept 3, 2021 6:22:34 GMT
And others who have an opinion:
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree?
I'm looking for a reason that goes beyond "I think", hope, rank fear, or a reading of tea leaves.
Mebbe there is nothing other than what may as well be tea leaves?
No doubt in anticipation or after can "work" when viewed in the rear view mirror, but I'm wondering what drives you to one rather than the other.
Personality?
Belief that you could not actually follow through on an "after" method, fearing that you'd be selling at a low when the slot machine handle will be pulled again on the next market day?
Deadly serious about this as I mull this over daily...as my portfolio sits at all time highs.
I have no idea about the market's path going forward. Although concerned about tapering and inflationary pressures, I have no insight about when these issues will affect the market. Momentum remains strong. I can't say that I find the markets "toppy"; it's more of a "melt up" than some kind of parabolic, blow-off topping action. I do think that the huge gains are driven by Easy Money, but the profits are real, not like in 1999. That makes the market feel artificial, but so what? That's the situation. If I were forced to predict (a.k.a. guess) this Fall and Winter's market action, I'd say it will be strong. Reversion to the mean ... later.
Instead, it's just a question of personal discipline: re-balancing to (arbitrary?) target levels of risk, not risking money that I want to keep in order to make more money that I don't need. I ask myself the questions, (1) How would I feel about a 25% loss of portfolio value; and (2) another 25% gain of portfolio value. Reply: (1) would upset me and create worry, while (2) would just be "nice". So, the risks outweigh the benefits for me personally.
I'll pay attention to the market technical action and might buy or sell based on any new convictions.
As posted several times this year, I am spending money on restoring and developing a holiday property in Greece. I bought it for a song and think it's a good investment. I built a couple of wood houses in California and now enjoy learning masonry; we get to swim in the Med twice a day; and my girlfriend gets to create a cactus & succulents garden. It's been a joy during the Covid-19 mess. The point is that I think it's a good time to look for alternative investments. While property values are insane in Singapore, Sydney, and San Francisco (merely high in London and Paris), they're attractive in other locations.
So, I'm at 47% equities instead of some higher level. I know that I could have made more money and might still be able to make more money, but the risks outweigh the benefits.
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Post by racqueteer on Sept 3, 2021 11:52:18 GMT
And others who have an opinion:
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree? I went a different way. I elected to reduce volatile instruments in favor of those which are more sedate. I just didn’t see a good risk/reward ratio. More to the point of your question, however, I think it depends on whether you expect something like a brief pullback or a major decline. So long as you have the ability to BTD, or raise your volatility, you’re probably fine; especially since I anticipate no more than a brief pullback. Iae, I suspect we would have ample time to unload equity if we chose to DO that; since many will BTD.
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 3, 2021 11:55:17 GMT
Hi guys,
One of my rebalance strategies is to trim equity in a rising stock market to keep my asset allocation on bubble. Another strategy I have used is to take excess cash generation and buy on the fixed income side. And, at times, I have used a combination of the two. This is why, generally, Old_Skeet maintains an equity ballast position on the equity side of his portfolio in which I add to in stock market pullbacks or trim from in stock market rallys. Currently, all the equity ballast has been trimmed and is no more leaving longterm equity positions. With this, I have been buying more recently with excess cash generation on the fixed side in order to maintain my asset allocation, more or less, keeping it on bubble.
Now that I consider the market, in general, to be overbought I am now back to trimming from some long standing equity positions since my equity ballast is no more and building cash in the process while I await the next stock market pullback. In addition, I can buy some fixed income should I choose.
For me, I consider both stock market rallys (sell and book profit) and pullbacks (buy at reduced prices) my friend. As the old saying goes ... Buy low and Sell high. I call this process throttling my equity allocation.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 3, 2021 13:17:03 GMT
The most important is the Fed. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank is likely to begin tapering before the end of the year. But he said rate hikes aren’t imminent as there is still “much ground to cover” before the economy hits full employment. The job report this morning was weak. VIX < 17 means low risk. Looking at everything, I'm still at 99+% invested with zero cash. Sometimes, the hardest thing is to do nothing.
Generally, rebalancing to your proper AA is a good, simple idea. Growth(VOOG) is leading Value(VOOV) + IWM(SC) + EEM for 3 months already. Attachments:
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 3, 2021 13:21:53 GMT
"Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree?"
I am probably going off-topic here so feel free to delete my answer if you so choose. I am not selling selling anything in anticipation of a decline. I did sell a portion of an overweight position in KMI yesterday. My intention is to use the cash to reopen a position in an undecided security that would give me some exposure to precious metals. The broader market as represented by the S&P 500 is giving no signals that are discernable by me that there is a major correction is on the short term horizon. All of my contemplations are in anticipation of something. That is what I do. Currently I am contemplating the Fed goosing its taper talk and probably creating some headwinds for the broader domestic stock market. I intend to react in an appropriate manner to what the market does when it changes. Much of what I do is based on tea leaves, goat entrails, & voodoo so I will not try to explain the processes.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 3, 2021 13:27:55 GMT
And others who have an opinion:
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree?
I'm looking for a reason that goes beyond "I think", hope, rank fear, or a reading of tea leaves.
Mebbe there is nothing other than what may as well be tea leaves?
No doubt in anticipation or after can "work" when viewed in the rear view mirror, but I'm wondering what drives you to one rather than the other.
Personality?
Belief that you could not actually follow through on an "after" method, fearing that you'd be selling at a low when the slot machine handle will be pulled again on the next market day?
Deadly serious about this as I mull this over daily...as my portfolio sits at all time highs.
My equities "struggle" to get to 50%. Not that they are doing poorly, but I cut back a bit last year to 45%. The basic AA to equities has not changed; I never sold them. But along the way I gained a fondness for QQQJ. I want to hold it long term but it keeps giving me trading opportunities, so I do. It is one that is ripe for harvesting so I plan to soon. It is not market driven but opportunity driven. I know equities will rise and fall so don't worry too much about that. It's the bond AA I sweat over.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2021 13:28:52 GMT
The most important is the Fed. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank is likely to begin tapering before the end of the year. But he said rate hikes aren’t imminent as there is still “much ground to cover” before the economy hits full employment. The job report this morning was weak. VIX < 17 means low risk. Looking at everything, I'm still at 99+% invested with zero cash. Sometimes, the hardest thing is to do nothing.
Generally, rebalancing to your proper AA is a good, simple idea. Growth(VOOG) is leading Value(VOOV) + IWM(SC) + EEM for 3 months already. Agree and appreciate these types of posts. In my situation - 3 months of data does not influence any investing allocation choices for me - except maybe not to buy what is leading - agree hard to do nothing! Also, while closely watching Fed ACTIONS or lack thereof, I am not a believer of their rhetoric. Data will dictate. Edit - still at 83% equities.
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 3, 2021 14:13:46 GMT
@slooow , Data will dictate, but the Fed was very clear too. If something big happens, they will tell us. The Fed is usually slow and rather be late. I use a similar mentality, I don't have an idea what will happen, as long as it looks good I'm in. Only in very risky market I start think what to do, I rather be a bit late selling than too early.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 3, 2021 16:00:25 GMT
And others who have an opinion:
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree? I went a different way. I elected to reduce volatile instruments in favor of those which are more sedate. I just didn’t see a good risk/reward ratio. More to the point of your question, however, I think it depends on whether you expect something like a brief pullback or a major decline. So long as you have the ability to BTD, or raise your volatility, you’re probably fine; especially since I anticipate no more than a brief pullback. Iae, I suspect we would have ample time to unload equity if we chose to DO that; since many will BTD. I'm working with this concept somewhat as well. Since I still have income every month from work and my allocation is close to my desired percentage, I'm using balanced funds more than before and adding in ways that maintain that allocation. VWIAX for conservative, VGWAX and FMSDX for moderate allocation and FBALX (not established yet) for aggressive. When we have a substantial dip, FBALX may well be my first purchase. Since direction is unknown and can happen fast I like having pros rebalance for me if need be on a daily basis.
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Post by fred495 on Sept 3, 2021 16:40:33 GMT
I'm using balanced funds more than before and adding in ways that maintain that allocation. VWIAX for conservative, VGWAX and FMSDX for moderate allocation and FBALX (not established yet) for aggressive. Since direction is unknown and can happen fast I like having pros rebalance for me if need be on a daily basis. Rebalancing by pros may well work for your other funds, but not necessarily for VWIAX. It has a rather static equity/bond allocation which, for the equity portion of its portfolio, varied only between 36.9% and 39.2% since 2017, per M*. On the other hand, this hands-off approach may well be the secret of its long-term success. Good luck, Fred
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Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 3, 2021 17:21:23 GMT
I'm using balanced funds more than before and adding in ways that maintain that allocation. VWIAX for conservative, VGWAX and FMSDX for moderate allocation and FBALX (not established yet) for aggressive. Since direction is unknown and can happen fast I like having pros rebalance for me if need be on a daily basis. Rebalancing by pros may well work for your other funds, but not necessarily for VWIAX. It has a rather static equity/bond allocation which, for the equity portion of its portfolio, varied only between 36.9% and 39.2% since 2017, per M*. On the other hand, this hands-off approach may well be the secret of its long-term success. Good luck, Fred Good point. But if the equity or bond allocation changes due to market conditions VWIAX rebalances within its established parameters. Agreed about the "hands off" approach as well. VWIAX looks like it's on track to return about 10% this year. Not bad for 'stupid $'. Stay well, Fred
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Post by chang on Sept 10, 2021 20:15:37 GMT
And others who have an opinion:
Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree?
I'm looking for a reason that goes beyond "I think", hope, rank fear, or a reading of tea leaves.
Mebbe there is nothing other than what may as well be tea leaves?
No doubt in anticipation or after can "work" when viewed in the rear view mirror, but I'm wondering what drives you to one rather than the other.
Personality?
Belief that you could not actually follow through on an "after" method, fearing that you'd be selling at a low when the slot machine handle will be pulled again on the next market day?
Deadly serious about this as I mull this over daily...as my portfolio sits at all time highs.
I can only speak for myself. My equity % has run up higher than I want. As erryl once said, "there's never a bad time to fix your AA." Consider it a rebalancing. But yes, of course, the market's run-up is a factor in my choosing to do it now. Sold another chunk of equity today, around 2%. If the sell-off continues, I will keep selling large chunks of equity. I won't mind shedding another 10% equity next week if the turmoil continues. I just arrived back in the US this week for the first time in 18 months. There are a lot of things I don't even recognize here. We're escaping on Sunday for a couple of quiet days in Woodstock, VT with a stop at the Calvin Coolidge farm in Plymouth Notch to pay homage to one of America's greatest presidents.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 10, 2021 21:00:55 GMT
Welcome back.
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