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Post by xray on Sept 11, 2021 17:19:10 GMT
Reference: Your: And others who have an opinion:
I can only speak for myself in my [single opinion] comments below. With that said:
1... Can you go into some detail as to why you are selling or contemplating selling IN ANTICIPATION of a decline....as opposed to AFTER a decline of some degree?
Many of us [dividend oriented] sell regularly for CapGain and do not ride portfolio securities up/down [sine wave]. I made a post on 9/4 on the CEF string when my data showed we should be going to a 15-20% cash position. My latest posting on this comment was a "Morgan Stanley's" article on the possibility of a 20% dip in the market. Better we be proactive than reactive IMHO. Currently, 20% cash is currently considered sufficient for a over heated market and where I have already received substantial CapGains [for the year]. Should the market go beyond a a 20% decline, I would then have to consider taking some CapLosses to increase my current cash position [to 25-30% to take advantage of the next up market]....
2... No doubt in anticipation or after can "work" when viewed in the rear view mirror, but I'm wondering what drives you to one rather than the other.
I can't emphasize enough about working with "data analysis" when making our decisions [without our emotional factor]. Rear view mirrors never work [IMHO], only current analysis data and "projections of our analysis data" must drive us in our decisions. Some of these "analysis data" decisions can drive us to better "Lower Risk" by the number of shares being bought/sold. Very profitable securities in our portfolio's should always be "reduced" in the numb3r of shares [but never sold out] to a lower numb3r of shares and then "dollar cost averaged" up [later] to a higher new MktBuyPrc "AVERAGE". In effect continuing the CapGain process [going forward]....
3... Belief that you could not actually follow through on an "after" method, fearing that you'd be selling at a low when the slot machine handle will be pulled again on the next market day?
A profitable CapGain "TAKEN" is worth more than a possible two in the bush IMHO. I have never been afraid about price increases/decreases [buying or selling] when using our individual analysis data as a basis for our decisions. If you use my #2 above, you don't really miss anything. You have sold to the current market price [that you are currently happy with] with the CapGain now lower/higher to current MktPrc and have re-invested [immediately] at the "SAME" market price. We should be happy using this methodology. The "INSIDERS" use this method and it is shown as in/out instead of bought/sold [they sell a number of shares (say 3,000sh at 12.13] and also buy [identical number 3,000sh @ 12.13]. Thus they have taken the CapGain and sleep better. The "danger" in using this methodology is that our "average" MktBuyPrc has increased if/when averaging earlier shares [higher now in MktPrc and reducing your future CapGain should there be any] Good methodology for 15-20% cash protection [IMHO}....
4... Maybe there is nothing other than what may as well be tea leaves. I'm looking for a reason that goes beyond "I think", hope, rank fear, or a reading of tea leaves.
You don't really believe in the tea leaf method. I know this for a fact as I read some of your posts. You are looking for answers that most of us have always had and have developed a answer that appears to work for us individually....
5... No doubt in anticipation or after can "work" when viewed in the rear view mirror, but I'm wondering what drives you to one rather than the other. Deadly serious about this as I mull this over daily...as my portfolio sits at all time highs.
Serious analytical data reviews of what we buy/sell for "BOTH" rising and declining markets have to be analyzed before buying. The market is not a casino where we can throw our money away and make the daily/weekly traders happy....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Chahta on Sept 11, 2021 18:40:43 GMT
I can only speak for myself. My equity % has run up higher than I want. As erryl once said, "there's never a bad time to fix your AA." Consider it a rebalancing. But yes, of course, the market's run-up is a factor in my choosing to do it now. Sold another chunk of equity today, around 2%. If the sell-off continues, I will keep selling large chunks of equity. I won't mind shedding another 10% equity next week if the turmoil continues. I just arrived back in the US this week for the first time in 18 months. There are a lot of things I don't even recognize here. We're escaping on Sunday for a couple of quiet days in Woodstock, VT with a stop at the Calvin Coolidge farm in Plymouth Notch to pay homage to one of America's greatest presidents. What is on the buying side?
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Post by chang on Sept 11, 2021 19:05:33 GMT
Cash.
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 11, 2021 19:42:24 GMT
xray , Chahta , chang , Everyone knows September and maybe October are notoriously bad market months correct? Change of seasons, even more attention to their money from amateurs, storm season is coming to an end, smart money is locking in profits to display this years gains in shiny brochures. Besides making a second appearance on the wall of woe, Covid, are there any shutdowns, insurrections, claims of stolen votes or panic on the horizon? AMZN’s still delivering, opening fulfillment centers, creating jobs for example. Jobless claims are decreasing maybe thanks to vaccination and shutting down of government money. Consumers should have more income to spend next year especially if they lay low again this winter. There’s still cash on the sidelines to be spent or reinvested. Well November marks the start of a new market year. I’ll book some profits from growth indexes like the smart money does without the brochure so I can wait a month. There’s always the possibility of an total economic earnings only unknown event though to destroy any plan I think I have. Nothings foolproof. I’ll error on the possibility that won’t happen soon.
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Post by xray on Sept 11, 2021 20:42:37 GMT
Who's buying? My thinking is that when a opportunity presents itself, we should always take advantage of it. As long as we always have our self imposed safety net [in my case 20% cash currently available for investing], I can continually buy/sell going forward. Some of us bought one security last week, and will be buying one this coming week as well as reducing shares on one security for CapGain.... My current analysis data supports some of the investor comments about the market [going down currently].... One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by fishingrod on Sept 11, 2021 23:33:14 GMT
I always keep 10% cash ready for opportune times. Dividends and interest is always reinvested but as extra cash and divis that cannot be reinvested build up I find a way to hold until I, I hate to say "feel" the time is ready to deploy. If stock funds I own drop by 10% I am looking to buy more, If it goes to 15 -20% down I am buying. If bond funds drop by more than 5% I might add. If bond funds I own drop by 10% and the SEC yield has increased incrementally I will deploy more cash.
I am not buying yet.
Fishingrod
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 12, 2021 0:01:36 GMT
Some comments from my own experience: 1) 5-10% cash are meaningless for me and why I only use at least 20%. This how I invest too. Usually, 5 funds with 10% min and it could be all the way to 50-60%. 2) I never changed anything based on HIGH valuation or price increase too fast or anything that any "expert" said or have cash waiting for the next trade. I only based it on stats, indicators and numbers. It takes all the pressure of the guessing part of investing. 3) "Sorry" to announce that higher yielding are not a guarantee for better performance or risk/SD mitigation. The high-tech proved it over decades, but it hasn't stopped the believers. It's amazing how many investors can justify their lower performance. Total return has been and will be the only game in town, for some, risk-adjusted performance can be a second choice. If you buy stocks and selected ATT over AMZN (or other FAANG+MSFT) you have no defense. Examples: 1) If I was holding stocks I would still be in US LC, no matter how overpriced they are as winner can continue going up no matter what anybody says. 2) How many times YTD we heard that stocks are over prices and you must sell NOW? Too many to count, and the SP500 made over 50 new all-time highs. Risk is not high, so why are you selling? I don't. When I see high risk, I will be quick to sell. Warning: I will not post about it. 3) September-Oct has been bad months, historically. In the last 5 years for the SP500, March was the worse, see below. Sep-Oct were positive 50-60% of the times. Suppose price is down 3-5% and rebound starts, are you sure to buy at the best time? 4) Why do I need 10-20% in cash for the next trade? I don't. When I was younger, I sold a stock fund to buy a better stock fund. Later, when I had allocation + bond funds and stocks went down dramatically, I sold bond+allocation funds to buy stock fund, after all, being invested at 100% is the easiest thing because cash pays almost nothing. Only in very high risk markets, I was out for only several weeks. Lastly: how did you do in the last 10 trades going to cash or switching from supposedly overprices/overvalued to cash or undervalued? Remember, markets are always right and they don't care about opinions.
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Post by xray on Sept 12, 2021 19:16:37 GMT
Your: 4) Why do I need 10-20% in cash for the next trade? I don't. When I was younger, I sold a stock fund to buy a better stock fund. Later, when I had allocation + bond funds and stocks went down dramatically, I sold bond+allocation funds to buy stock fund, after all, being invested at 100% is the easiest thing because cash pays almost nothing. Only in very high risk markets, I was out for only several weeks.
----------
You don't "need" 10-20% in cash for the next trade. Most of us have 16 or more securities in our current portfolio's and all are trading "differently" [up/down] at any point in time [as market and sector favorability changes]. If our current self induced "safety Rf [risk factor] is currently @ 20%" [which indicates we are currently "80%" invested], we can make ANY necessary instant changes if/when a new more profitable undervalued security comes into immediate focus [in other words a "no brainer"]....
If/when the "HIGH OVERPRICED" market collapses to some point, many of us do not really care as the % drop has no real meaning to us as we are living within our "RISK TOERANCE" and our current portfolio is considered at "No real Risk" because of our current analytical evaluations [and our belief's in what we are currently holding ]. We will now have the 20% "RESERVE CASH to double up some of our portfolio securities and drive the MktBuyPrc's lower and increase the previous dividends that we were receiving....
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by chang on Sept 13, 2021 23:35:10 GMT
Lastly: how did you do in the last 10 trades going to cash or switching from supposedly overprices/overvalued to cash or undervalued? Remember, markets are always right and they don't care about opinions. [/b][/quote]Everything I sold on Friday went down today. Since you asked…
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 13, 2021 23:41:29 GMT
Your: 4) Why do I need 10-20% in cash for the next trade? I don't. When I was younger, I sold a stock fund to buy a better stock fund. Later, when I had allocation + bond funds and stocks went down dramatically, I sold bond+allocation funds to buy stock fund, after all, being invested at 100% is the easiest thing because cash pays almost nothing. Only in very high risk markets, I was out for only several weeks. ---------- You don't "need" 10-20% in cash for the next trade. Most of us have 16 or more securities in our current portfolio's and all are trading "differently" [up/down] at any point in time [as market and sector favorability changes]. If our current self induced "safety Rf [risk factor] is currently @ 20%" [which indicates we are currently " 80%" invested], we can make ANY necessary instant changes if/when a new more profitable undervalued security comes into immediate focus [in other words a "no brainer"].... If/when the " HIGH OVERPRICED" market collapses to some point, many of us do not really care as the % drop has no real meaning to us as we are living within our "RISK TOERANCE" and our current portfolio is considered at "No real Risk" because of our current analytical evaluations [and our belief's in what we are currently holding ]. We will now have the 20% " RESERVE CASH to double up some of our portfolio securities and drive the MktBuyPrc's lower and increase the previous dividends that we were receiving.... One single opinion of the many I am sure.... Live Long and Prosper.... Questions: 1) Why 20% is the right number, why not 15% or 35%? 2) How long have you held cash? one month? 6-12-18 months? I believe in 99+% investing. The only cash I have is several thousands in my bank. All my investing accounts have zero cash. I trained myself to be fully invested, I can always find where to invest. The only time I'm in cash is when markets are very risky (less than 5%) where I can't find anything I can make money in the next several months, and I hold cash 3-4 weeks at most. It's similar to inheritance. How do you invest it? Research shows the best is to invested it all, if you can't buy 100% stocks then invest it another fund that matches your risk such as allocation or bond funds. Even if you want to invest in 100% stocks and want to do it in 5 buckets, why not invest it all in an allocation fund and every several weeks sell part of it and buy stocks. The key here is to accept that you can't time markets and cash is trash, especially when you hold cash for months-years.Just like I don't believe in "I think", "I believe", "I feel". It's all based on logical explanation and how markets have been working for years. There is no indicator that proves "heated market" Cap gain and/or higher income don't guarantee higher performance either (see FAANG+MSFT) over many years. I don't know what insiders are doing, but I know that most of the billionaires have been holding for years and doing nothing.
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Post by xray on Sept 14, 2021 21:48:04 GMT
FD1000, Your Questions: 1) Why 20% is the right number, why not 15% or 35%? 2) How long have you held cash? one month? 6-12-18 months? 3) I believe in 99+% investing. The only cash I have is several thousands in my bank. All my investing accounts have zero cash. I trained myself to be fully invested, I can always find where to invest. The only time I'm in cash is when markets are very risky (less than 5%) where I can't find anything I can make money in the next several months, and I hold cash 3-4 weeks at most. 4) It's similar to inheritance. How do you invest it? Research shows the best is to invested it all, if you can't buy 100% stocks then invest it another fund that matches your risk such as allocation or bond funds. Even if you want to invest in 100% stocks and want to do it in 5 buckets, why not invest it all in an allocation fund and every several weeks sell part of it and buy stocks. 5) The key here is to accept that you can't time markets and cash is trash, especially when you hold cash for months-years. 6) Just like I don't believe in "I think", "I believe", "I feel". It's all based on logical explanation and how markets have been working for years. There is no indicator that proves "heated market" 7) Cap gain and/or higher income don't guarantee higher performance either (see FAANG+MSFT) over many years. 8) I don't know what insiders are doing, but I know that most of the billionaires have been holding for years and doing nothing. ---------- 1... Some of us use our portfolio's [by analysis] to determine what the percentage will be. Our current 20% is not a random percentage but is based on the performance of our portfolio's [going forward]. Most of the time we are 100% invested but the market has forced us to go to 5%, 10%, 15% and now currently 20% cash. We remain 80% invested [with 33% up, 67% down in MktPrc today in our current portfolio's (using COB Friday's data)]. At this point, we don't really care what the market does [in the short term,] as we have already reduced our portfolio's to our "Risk Tolerance" that we agreed to.... 2... We don't like to hold cash but will if the market so directs us to. There is no "time" restraints allocated to our percentage cash being held. We raise or lower the cash percentage to what the market will give us. If/when a good investment comes along we will make a initial buy "at current market pricing". Many of us will not sell at a loss [and unload a security totally] unless forced to by market forces. Our selling of a security is tied to our automated "sell code" signal that we developed for our portfolio. To answer your question, you can read back my earlier postings and you will see "when" we went to 20%.... 3... Some of us do "NOT" believe in "zero" cash investing as it prevents us from capturing some very good CapGains [that go along with our dividend and distributions being collected each month or Qtr. 4... Some of us do not believe in "Buckets", "100% stocks", bonds, etc. We buy what is shown to be a good undervalued investment [at the time of analysis] and hold it until the market becomes aware of it and hits our sell target. Since we are collecting a very good dividend or distribution [>9%], any time lag to a sell situation is not considered important to us.... 5)... No one can time the market. Neither can any of us who may try to. The key to successful investing IMHO, is to "expand" our excel worksheets and develop risk factor numb3rs and codes for selling [automatically]. Takes the stress out of investing successfully.... 6... I agree. We use Logical thinking and what we have learned through "Hard Knocks" over a lot of "TIME" and update our excel worksheets when we have to.... 7... I believe we have a disconnect on this statement. If/when we are receiving high dividends or distributions [beyond the norm of 9%] performance is affected downward and charts don't mean much [staying the same or improving is a + for CapGain]. In addition, some of us have a lot of CapGain currently in the selling of a security.... 8... Many of us use insider trading as a "confirmation" of our analysis when buying/selling. Should not be ignored to my way of thinking.... some of us think a little different based on our years of investing and our yearly returns that work well for us. Not trying to change your way of thinking that works well for you and others. Different strokes for different folks as they say.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by chang on Sept 15, 2021 9:46:59 GMT
Not making any predictions whatsoever. But the market has dropped after my last two equity sales. Market futures are up right now … if the market ends up in the red (again) I will make another significant equity sale/reduction.
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 15, 2021 11:49:31 GMT
Not making any predictions whatsoever. But the market has dropped after my last two equity sales. Market futures are up right now … if the market ends up in the red (again) I will make another significant equity sale/reduction. I have been following your comments on trimming your equity allocation. I like your stepping out process. Even us old timers can learn from the more youthful. Old_Skeet
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 15, 2021 14:08:31 GMT
Observations: 1) The SP500 is down less than 3% from all-time high. 2) Since 1/1/2021, every time the price got to 50-days moving average, it rebounded, except in March where it broke it for only 2 days. Coincidence?3) Big trend is still up. 4) BTW, growth(VOOG) is ahead of value(VOOV) for YTD( CHART)...and for 1-2-3 months. VOO=SP500 5) I'm invested at 99+% Attachments:
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Post by xray on Sept 15, 2021 20:46:47 GMT
chang, Your:Not making any predictions whatsoever. But the market has dropped after my last two equity sales. Market futures are up right now … if the market ends up in the red (again) I will make another significant equity sale/reduction. ---------- The question is what have your two last equity sales done today?? If they went down, your decision could be correct [in the short term] and might be over-valued. A quick analysis at the end of the week should give you more clarification of your previous analysis. If they both went back up, it might suggest you sold too early [again referencing your COB Friday analysis numb3rs].... Disclosure: 64% of my portfolio went up today [against COB Friday]. Some of us bought a new undervalued security [CEF] "early" today. No other changes.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by chang on Sept 15, 2021 21:59:59 GMT
chang, Your:Not making any predictions whatsoever. But the market has dropped after my last two equity sales. Market futures are up right now … if the market ends up in the red (again) I will make another significant equity sale/reduction. ---------- The question is what have your two last equity sales done today?? If they went down, your decision could be correct [in the short term] and might be over-valued. A quick analysis at the end of the week should give you more clarification of your previous analysis. If they both went back up, it might suggest you sold too early [again referencing your COB Friday analysis numb3rs].... Disclosure: 64% of my portfolio went up today [against COB Friday]. Some of us bought a new undervalued security [CEF] "early" today. No other changes.... Live Long and Prosper.... Two went up, one went down. But that doesn't matter, does it? My AA needed rebalancing, and I decided after 18 months of meteoric growth that it was time to start doing it. Not finished, by any means. I still want to shed at least 5% of equity.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 15, 2021 22:13:14 GMT
Good day for lightening equities. I would like to have had that extra 7% to sell.
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Post by Fearchar on Sept 16, 2021 1:20:43 GMT
Last week the S&P 500 forward earning estimates by Yardeni were 214.04 This week, forward earnings are 214.41 Annualized, that works out to about 9% growth rate. With the index at 4480, those earnings equate to 4.8% yield. Ba bonds are yielding 3.15%. So, we are looking at an equity premium of 4.8-3.15=1.6% That's good. Not great, not awful, but still good.
Looking over the S&P500 for the past year, it's been appreciating at a steady rate. There has been a minor pull back about once a month and we are currently in one of those pull backs. Hopefully, we are at the bottom of the pull back and the market will continue its progression. However, if there is a significant change to the outlook (like rising rates, reduction in tapering or planned spending), then there could be a larger pullback.
Very Critical juncture for the market right now for sure, but also reasonable chance of further advances.
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Post by oldskeet on Sept 16, 2021 11:35:41 GMT
Last week the S&P 500 forward earning estimates by Yardeni were 214.04 This week, forward earnings are 214.41 Annualized, that works out to about 9% growth rate. With the index at 4480, those earnings equate to 4.8% yield. Ba bonds are yielding 3.15%. So, we are looking at an equity premium of 4.8-3.15=1.6% That's good. Not great, not awful, but still good. Looking over the S&P500 for the past year, it's been appreciating at a steady rate. There has been a minor pull back about once a month and we are currently in one of those pull backs. Hopefully, we are at the bottom of the pull back and the market will continue its progression. However, if there is a significant change to the outlook (like rising rates, reduction in tapering or planned spending), then there could be a larger pullback. Very Critical juncture for the market right now for sure, but also reasonable chance of further advances. Hi Fearchar , The above is a nice recap of forward estimates. What concerns me though is that forward estimates gnerally get revised most times downward (not upwards) when reporting begins. When earning reporting season begins around October 21st it will be interesting to see if these estimates stick. Your recap was postured to support your presentation. Let's indeed hope that the projected numbers stick. I have linked below a link for Advisor Perspectives that shows "As Reported Earnings" for the S&P 500 Index were shown at $166.35 through August of 2021. www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/09/07/p-e10-august-2020-update With ths, by my thinking, there are going to have to be some strong corporate earnings numbers reported to get to the forward earnings expectations in the $210.00 to $215.00 range as projected in your presentation by the end of the year. Old_Skeet
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Post by xray on Sept 16, 2021 16:39:57 GMT
chang, Your 2 went up one went down -------- Sounds like 66% positive to me. Looks good in this type of market.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by chang on Sept 16, 2021 20:23:16 GMT
Well, it's nice to be over-allocated and take a profit. If the market goes down the next day, you feel like a genius. And if it goes up, you still make money. Kind of a win-win situation.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2021 0:09:23 GMT
I am always under invested due to my risk averse nature. So I am rarely in position to take profit.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 17, 2021 1:47:49 GMT
I am always under invested due to my risk averse nature. So I am rarely in position to take profit. Trying to understand this quote. Where are you in your life cycle? Retired or accumulating? What are you doing with your financial assets?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2021 4:15:42 GMT
I am always under invested due to my risk averse nature. So I am rarely in position to take profit. Trying to understand this quote. Where are you in your life cycle? Retired or accumulating? What are you doing with your financial assets? I am 12 years from retirement. Accumulating. Before covid there was talk of slow down/recession possibility so slowed down investing. Covid (or rather the trillions pumped to fight covid) somewhat unexpectedly resumed the bull market.
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Post by chang on Sept 29, 2021 20:28:39 GMT
The last three things I recently bought (all different assets classes) have all gone down. I did some selling a few weeks ago, and that appears to have been smart … should have done more. My equity allocation is still a little above where I’d like it.
I’m not sanguine about the market. It feels higgledy-piggledy to me. (Not sure if that’s actually a technical term or not.) I might do some more sellin’.
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Post by xray on Sept 29, 2021 22:13:24 GMT
chang, Your: The last three things I recently bought (all different assets classes) have all gone down. I did some selling a few weeks ago, and that appears to have been smart … should have done more. My equity allocation is still a little above where I’d like it. I’m not sanguine about the market. It feels higgledy-piggledy to me. (Not sure if that’s actually a technical term or not.) I might do some more selling. ---------- You need [IMHO] not to look at what a particular security that you bought is doing Daily or weekly. Most securities are very volatile and the traders are back buying/selling daily and weekly. Selling a good security by analysis [if/when done correctly] can be a mistake. It is easy for all of us to make mistakes by not using the some of the analysis methodology. Something to look at, on what our college instructors taught us [way back when], as a "BASIC" start we could improve on [with time and hard lessons knocks]: Sheet #1: 1... sixteen minimum securities in portfolio's 2... all equally $ valued up to 6% maximum [16 securities x 6% = 96% total portfolio and 4% cash].... start slow with initial buy's at 0-2%, then 2-4% on improvement, 4-6% when in "LOVE".... [sometimes when adding shares, it might take several buys to get to 6%. If when not @ 6% maximum over several securities, cash buildup will occur] 3... observe what the insiders are doing [if they are selling we don't want to buy, and if they are buying big time, we should add shares].... 4... create excel worksheets to build all of the analysis information gathered to avoid rash investing or following message boards.... 5... if we like a security, put it on our watch list "first". Buy it when our current analysis shows improvement after at least a 2-wk period [as a minimum].... 6... Excel worksheets should track: a... Security symbol b... last insider buy/sell MktPrc c... intrinsic value numb3r d... NAV/Book value & MktPrc e... expected/calculated "crash NAV or Book Value" f... your analysis information #1 [like a report card numb3r] g... your analysis information #2 [like a power rating numb3r] h... last weeks star type rating i... your current star type numb3r j... your last weeks 13-wk star type numb3r k... Your current 13-wk star type numb3r l... your last weeks analysis calculated "Risk" numb3r m... your current weeks analysis calculated "Risk" num3r n... your average Mkt BuyPrc average numb3r from all of your buys numb3r 0... Div/Distribution $ received/Yr numb3r p... Percent Div/distribution cost to yield price numb3r q... projected % div numb3r r... total dollars paid numb3r s... current total dollars value numb3r t... current NAV/Book value numb3r u... number of shares numb3r v... percent of portfolio numb3r w... sell code [by analysis] numb3r x... buy/sell information changes showing symbol/shares/mktprc/date and so on to other pages.... You get the idea that investing is like putting a "puzzle" together.... Hope this helps a little for those who currently do not use excel worksheets.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 21, 2021 3:24:13 GMT
YTD continues to be very easy regardless of inflation and the rest(link). The SP500 keeps going up uninterrupted (no correction in sight), it was down just over 5% and now recoup almost everything. US LC continue to be the best category when you look at wide range indexes.
When VIX is under 30, risk is on which means, risk was on YTD and why I'm invested at 99+%.
Even if I owned stocks and wanted to trade based on market conditions, I had to do it only in 2 dates, which I posted about it in this thread.
In April 1st, value(VOOV) had the momentum while EEM,IWM,Growth(VOOG) lost it. In June 25, Growth(VOOG) had the momo. Or just hold US LC. YTD....SPY+VOOG over 22%, VOOV over 21%, EEM 2%, IWM<17%
With my portfolio, I finally made a stock trade using the SP500. As you know, I'm looking for a very high success rate and just looking to make 2-3% withing hours-days. My setup requires at a minimum : the SP500 to go down at least 5% + both MACD lines to be negative + MACD becomes positive is the sign to buy. Basically I bought several hundred thousands on Oct 14 and sold today. That was 2+% gain and back to bonds.
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Post by flipperxxx on Oct 21, 2021 18:26:29 GMT
With my portfolio, I finally made a stock trade using the SP500. As you know, I'm looking for a very high success rate and just looking to make 2-3% withing hours-days. My setup requires at a minimum : the SP500 to go down at least 5% + both MACD lines to be negative + MACD becomes positive is the sign to buy. Basically I bought several hundred thousands on Oct 14 and sold today. That was 2+% gain and back to bonds.
why not use something like SPXL and make 6-7% instead of 2%? seems to me when you have the courage of your convictions, that'd be a better bet. or put less in and still make more. then again, ifn you're wrong ...
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Post by Chahta on Oct 21, 2021 18:55:44 GMT
I think that is a great idea flipper. I have used fd's method a few times with QQQJ and QQQ. One just needs to be confident with the vehicle.
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 21, 2021 22:42:39 GMT
With my portfolio, I finally made a stock trade using the SP500. As you know, I'm looking for a very high success rate and just looking to make 2-3% withing hours-days. My setup requires at a minimum : the SP500 to go down at least 5% + both MACD lines to be negative + MACD becomes positive is the sign to buy. Basically I bought several hundred thousands on Oct 14 and sold today. That was 2+% gain and back to bonds.
why not use something like SPXL and make 6-7% instead of 2%? seems to me when you have the courage of your convictions, that'd be a better bet. or put less in and still make more. then again, ifn you're wrong ...
I really don't need these trades, my portfolio performance is much higher than our needs. I just do it for fun and a proof for myself how "easy" it is when you follow strict rules with good criteria. Your idea isn't bad. My style has been mostly lower risk, but I do sometimes use SP500 at 150%(RYNAX) which is the max for me.
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