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Post by xray on Nov 11, 2021 10:18:44 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this morning, it appears that market selling is accelerating. We discussed this over the last month and some of us created a safety cash buffer to a percentage holding that we thought would match our "Risk" safety factor. Currently, many of us already have a safety factor with the cash we are already holding but that may not be enough should the market keep accelerating at the current levels. A portfolio re-review is in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities well below livable thresholds. The decline yesterday was quite severe as the down push [selling] exceeded what we could have normally expected. Should it continue today and tomorrow, investors will be dealing with CapLosses instead of CapGains....
The CEF market, with my current data, shows a collapsing situation that many of us have not seen for a while now....
Word to the wise. Take the time to evaluate and analyze what is in our current portfolio's.....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Nov 18, 2021 16:54:44 GMT
Need to Know Record selling by insiders is setting up stocks for a big fall, says contrarian investor Published: Nov. 18, 2021 at 7:22 a.m. ET By Barbara Kollmeyer Critical information for the U.S. trading day
“The most valuable commodity I know of, is information.” — Gordon Gekko
After a year of record stock buying on Wall Street, the message from forecasters for 2022 has largely been “keep at it.” This week, we heard from Goldman Sachs, which sees households and corporate buying driving the S&P 500 to a 5,100 finish by the end of next year, and Sanford Bernstein, who said buy stocks even if real yields normalize, which it says justifies high valuations.
A contrarian voice has been Morgan Stanley, who is telling clients to resist buying U.S. stocks. From that same neck of the woods, our call of the day from the True Contrarian blog and newsletter’s chief executive, Steven Jon Kaplan, has a warning for investors who have been piling into this market.
“People are really underappreciating the degree of risk that they’re taking because now that we have — especially for the really big megacap names — even greater overvaluation than we’ve had before, the downside risk is extremely high,” Kaplan told MarketWatch in an interview on Wednesday.
While a year ago Kaplan predicted a big selloff that didn’t really materialize, he notes 2021 was “unusual” with stock inflows not seen in 20 to 50 years, depending on whom you ask, that kept markets propped up. So the biggest and strongest companies kept rising and the rest went sideways.
For 2022, he sees those highflying stocks falling hard and possibly panicking inexperienced investors. That is because “anybody who’s 30 years old or younger, the last time we had a bear market, they were in high school or even earlier grades so they don’t even have the experience of knowing what it’s like to invest in a bear market,” Kaplan said.
Among the warning signs, he highlights a favorite indicator of his — selling and buying by company insiders, which he tracks via J3 Information Services Group.
“We’ve had all-time record levels of insider selling meaning that the top executives, the people that are the most experienced investors in the world, have been pretty much spending all year getting rid of their stakes in some cases and unloading huge amounts of shares they have accumulated for decades,” said Kaplan.
For example, the chairman of broker Charles Schwab SCHW, 0.42% who has been selling all year — the stock is up 50% — and of course Tesla TSLA, 1.55% CEO Elon Musk has dumped over $8.8 billion — shares are still up 54%. Billions have been sold by the heads of Apple AAPL, 0.78%, Facebook parent Meta META, and Amazon AMZN, 3.35% this year.
“So I think that the people that have the most knowledge are the most worried about a drop and people that have the least experience in some cases, maybe just started trading in the past year or so, consistently, are the most aggressive and the most optimistic about what’s going to happen,” Kaplan said.
“History has shown us that when you have that big a difference in opinion from the most experienced to the least experienced people that the most experienced ones always come out on top,” he said, adding that the opposite has also held true with big insiders buying at crucial moments, such as in March 2009.
One sign that those investors are trying to position more conservatively could be driving dollar DXY, -0.16% gains this year, he added. As for what it will take to normalize price earnings ratios that are on average about “triple where they need to be,” Kaplan said most stocks would need to drop two-thirds. But “when things are either above or below fair value, and they come back to fair value, they rarely stay at fair value. They normally keep going because when people start to see things dropping a lot, they start to panic,” he said.
For where to park some cash for the coming storm, Kaplan suggests investors look at I-Bond or Series I savings bonds that can be bought directly from the government and are currently offering a return of 7%.
“You can put up to $65,000 a year into those and for 30 years, you can just keep them in there and just let them keep collecting whatever interest that they pay, which keeps changing every six months,” he said.
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Nov 18, 2021 17:29:31 GMT
"For where to park some cash for the coming storm, Kaplan suggests investors look at I-Bond or Series I savings bonds that can be bought directly from the government and are currently offering a return of 7%." Wow!!!! That advice sounds like what I was doing during or after the dot com crash. Fwiw, it worked then. xray,
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Post by xray on Nov 18, 2021 18:06:26 GMT
uncleharley, Selling a little more today for CapGain. Increasing some cash to current levels might not be a bad thing to do. Our individual "Risk Tolerance" [Rf] is being tested.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Nov 18, 2021 18:54:34 GMT
Reuters Investor Ackman says U.S. facing 'classic bubble' fueled by Fed's easy money policy Thu, November 18, 2021, 12:31 PM By Svea Herbst-Bayliss
(Reuters) - Investor William Ackman, whose views are widely watched on Wall Street, said on Thursday that the U.S. central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy has created a "classic bubble" and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will need to tighten rates more quickly to fight inflation.
"We are in a classic bubble which has been driven by the Fed," Ackman, who runs hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, said at a conference sponsored by S&P Global Ratings. Ackman was speaking days after the government announced that U.S. consumer prices in October surged 6.2% over the last 12 months, outpacing many economists' forecasts. "Every indicator is flashing red," Ackman said, citing surging prices in real estate, the art market and the stock market.
He called inflation the biggest risk for his hedge fund this year and said he expects the central bank will have to raise rates soon, echoing warnings he made on Twitter several weeks ago. "I think the Fed will be forced to tighten much more quickly," Ackman said, adding that he does not see much reason to keep interest rates at their current low levels, arguing that easy monetary policy was not bringing people back into the workforce. He also said higher prices are being fueled by structural changes and that recent increases may not be transitory, as some policy makers, economists and many corporations have said. ESG initiatives, including a switch to cleaner energy and demands for higher wages, are here to stay and are costly, Ackman said, noting they will fuel higher prices for some time.
Ackman said on Twitter last month that he had been invited to give a presentation to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to share his views on inflation and that he said policy makers should "taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible."
He said again on Thursday that he has hedged his portfolio, fearing higher rates could negatively impact the hedge fund's long-only equity portfolio. Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings Fund has returned 26.1% since January after a 70.2% gain last year.
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Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Nov 18, 2021 21:07:58 GMT
"For where to park some cash for the coming storm, Kaplan suggests investors look at I-Bond or Series I savings bonds that can be bought directly from the government and are currently offering a return of 7%." Wow!!!! That advice sounds like what I was doing during or after the dot com crash. Fwiw, it worked then. xray , Not sure I-Bonds are a place to "park" some cash. I understand the bond has to be held for a year. I believe if you cash out before five years you lose three months of interest.
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 18, 2021 21:13:46 GMT
"For where to park some cash for the coming storm, Kaplan suggests investors look at I-Bond or Series I savings bonds that can be bought directly from the government and are currently offering a return of 7%." Wow!!!! That advice sounds like what I was doing during or after the dot com crash. Fwiw, it worked then. xray , Not sure I-Bonds are a place to "park" some cash. I understand the bond has to be held for a year. I believe if you cash out before five years you lose three months of interest. If cashed in years 1-5, there is 3 mo interest penalty, but even with that, one may come out ahead of m-mkt funds and CDs. My problem now is that Treasury Direct required Signature Guarantee for my online application and it says that it may take 3-5 WEEKS (!) to process.
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Post by xray on Nov 19, 2021 12:16:33 GMT
Market is still in major decline ... but ... some very good bargains are coming into play [for income oriented investors] as the market will continue to panic in getting out with their previous CapGains. CEF's NAV's to MktPrc's are getting much better than previous markups.
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by steelpony10 on Nov 19, 2021 18:12:58 GMT
Well the buy, sell and whyers have no patience to pick through year end blow out sales ( still overvalued, due for worse, no cash left, have a wasted speculative account, all in China, a portfolio of dead branches, no face cards) even though the smart money does this consistently each year, shuffle the deck. A pretty consistent fact. The next market starts after this.
Shuffle your portfolio to your risk parameters and start planning for the end of 2022. If a surprise occurs before then you’ll be ready to at least try to capitalize on that. That’s how it works over and over to different degrees. So where’s all the money going? Figure it out yet?
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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 19, 2021 18:29:15 GMT
Well the buy, sell and whyers have no patience to pick through year end blow out sales ( still overvalued, due for worse, no cash left, have a wasted speculative account, all in China, a portfolio of dead branches, no face cards) even though the smart money does this consistently each year, shuffle the deck. A pretty consistent fact. The next market starts after this. Shuffle your portfolio to your risk parameters and start planning for the end of 2022. If a surprise occurs before then you’ll be ready to at least try to capitalize on that. That’s how it works over and over to different degrees. So where’s all the money going? Figure it out yet? What are you considering a "blow out sale"? I'm picking up some CEFs that have dropped. Is that "blow out"category? I thought it was more like a moderate correction. MSFT, AMZN, APPL, O are my only single stock picks...well and my tiny BABA self-punishment experiment. What 'face cards' am I missing?
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 19, 2021 18:39:14 GMT
Agree with rhythmmethod,; what blow out sales?? The market is extremely greedy right now. Rule of thumb, sales come shortly after distributions are cut or when fear conditions exist. High Yields (which many CEFs correlate to) are trading with minimal margin right now.
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Post by steelpony10 on Nov 19, 2021 18:52:50 GMT
rhythmmethod , Fearchar , apple.news/ApmwlhGM2Ru6tUyEGOii3fQ This probably has a paywall though. Anyway some see things different that’s all, a broader view. Just an opinion it’s not strictly bonds. Already been posted, tax loss selling, securing cap gains and rotation into any perceived values a reallocation of funds. Happens pretty much each year. Best bargains short of a correction or major market insult. rhythmmethod , no face cards = not a betting hand so you can only rely on luck. Blow out as in a clearance. You’re correct so clearance may be a better but weaker term. Won’t draw too much interest then. An actual fact.
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Post by Fearchar on Nov 19, 2021 19:31:40 GMT
No paywall.
In a broad sense he is probably correct.
However, specifics are another matter and as far as I know, he does not have a verifiable track record.
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Post by steelpony10 on Nov 20, 2021 12:11:52 GMT
No paywall. In a broad sense he is probably correct. However, specifics are another matter and as far as I know, he does not have a verifiable track record. That was just an example I came across. I’m not a trader. He is an example to me anyway along with zero commissions why markets resemble a casino now and are more prone to market volatility. End of the year shuffling is a common occurrence over the broad market marking the end of this years market cycle. A recurring fact to me anyway.
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Post by xray on Nov 21, 2021 22:13:23 GMT
Ref: Post by xray on Nov 11, 2021 at 5:18am Looking at my analytical data this morning, it appears that market selling is accelerating. We discussed this over the last month and some of us created a safety cash buffer to a percentage holding that we thought would match our "Risk" safety factor. Currently, many of us already have a safety factor with the cash we are already holding but that may not be enough should the market keep accelerating at the current levels. A portfolio re-review is in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities well below livable thresholds. The decline yesterday was quite severe as the down push [selling] exceeded what we could have normally expected. Should it continue today and tomorrow, investors will be dealing with CapLosses instead of CapGains....
---------- Looking at my analytical data this morning, it appears that the market selloff continues to accelerate. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have currently increased our safety cash buffer to 25% that we currently believe will match our "Risk" [Rf] portfolio safety factor. Currently, some of us have sold some securities for CapGain to offset some of our current selling activity [where securities are dropping considerably with the market].... The changes [in my case] has resulted in losing approximately 3% CapGain in my current yearly total CapGain already accumulated. Portfolio currently has a dividend of 9.66% [which is expected to drop to no lower than 7% in a crash type market and staying the course]...
The CEF market, current data, continues to show a collapsing market situation that many of us have not seen for a while now. Word to the wise. Take the time to evaluate and analyze what is in our current portfolio's [against our current "RISK TOLERANCE"]. If/when the market goes down further, we should have been proactive and not reactive ["surprised"].....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Nov 26, 2021 19:36:37 GMT
My Previous Post: Looking at my analytical data this morning, it appears that the market selloff continues to accelerate. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have currently increased our safety cash buffer to 25% that we currently believe will match our "Risk" (Rf) portfolio safety factor. Currently, some of us have sold some securities for CapGain to offset some of our current selling activity (where securities are dropping considerably with the market).... The changes (in my case) has resulted in losing approximately 3% CapGain in my current yearly total CapGain already accumulated. Portfolio currently has a dividend of 9.66% (which is expected to drop to no lower than 7% in a crash type market and staying the course)... The CEF market, current data, continues to show a collapsing market situation that many of us have not seen for a while now. Word to the wise. Take the time to evaluate and analyze what is in our current portfolio's [against our current "RISK TOLERANCE"]. If/when the market goes down further, we should have been proactive and not reactive ("surprised").....
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Looks like "BARGAIN" time has arrived as investors start to Panic (and head to the exits). Monday should be a interesting "TRADING" day IMHO. With that said....
Investors who are currently @ 25% cash (or more) will surely find the bargains when reviewing their current portfolio's. If we have invested properly, we should not find many surprises. I, for one, will not be selling any of my securities for any CapLosses (current previous investments). This is a good time to analyze what we already have [our normal weekend reviews] in our portfolio's and dollar cost average (down) what some of our "out/in" averages (caused) and our current average MktBuyPrc's. Adding one or two new "Bargains" could also be in order....
The current market could go higher or lower but my current data is very negative at the moment....
One single opinion of the many (many, many) I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Nov 28, 2021 17:14:00 GMT
My: Looks like "BARGAIN" time has arrived as investors start to Panic (and head to the exits). Monday should be a interesting "TRADING" day IMHO....
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Investors (income oriented) have to be finding great bargains but the problem remains as to the direction of the market this coming week. We all have the problem since no one can predict markets. Currently, I have reduced my cash to 20% from 25%. We can't have too much of wild swings in the MktPrc's if a good percentage of our portfolio is currently in "cash" (Individual Risk Tolerance prevails)....
Recommendation, when looking and reviewing our current portfolio's this weekend it would be smart to "SEE" what the insiders are doing (buying or selling as a further guide ... no brainer). In my case, as a example, CAPL had a insider buy for 1,000sh @ 19.25 on 11/19, FSK (currently considered undervalued) had a insider buy (12,000sh) @ 21.30 on 11/23. Unfortunately for me, I already have maximum positions in both. I was looking to possibly increase my current holding in (penny stock) KYN (continues as 10star with great numb3rs) but that too is at a maximum holding (6% or greater). In effect, all of my 10star holdings continue to do well with the exception of one (HESM) which was initially bought too high in MktPrc....
The current market could go higher or lower but my current data remains very negative at the moment (three weeks in a steady decline pattern)....
One single opinion of the many (many, many) I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Nov 30, 2021 13:06:06 GMT
X-
Got a report J topper, Director of CAPL, just bought a 10,000sh block of the stock.
In another inside buy, G Nelson of Eaton Vance just bought decent sized blocks of ETY, EOI, and ETJ. Of the three, chart patterns suggest only ETJ may have a possible EOY rally, but so far I am unable to locate any information on its NII and gains. Am getting ever more annoyed that so many CEFs seem to hide such a critical bit of data,.
Overall, very few relatively large insider buys recently, from what I can see.
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Post by xray on Nov 30, 2021 15:50:19 GMT
richardsok, Your: 1... Got a report J topper, Director of CAPL, just bought a 10,000sh block of the stock. 2... In another inside buy, G Nelson of Eaton Vance just bought decent sized blocks of ETY, EOI, and ETJ. Of the three, chart patterns suggest only ETJ may have a possible EOY rally, but so far I am unable to locate any information on its NII and gains. Am getting ever more annoyed that so many CEFs seem to hide such a critical bit of data,. 3... Overall, very few relatively large insider buys recently, from what I can see. ---------- 1... When I logged into my computer system this morning, I saw the 10,000sh buy for CAPL on 11/29 for 19.25. I already have a maximum position in CAPL so I have to pass on this one (CAPL).... Looking at "Penny Stocks", WMC had five insider buys on 11/29 for a total of 75,000sh @ 2.17. WMC has such bad numb3rs currently, that I will not increase my current phase "0" position (0-1%).... 2... I don't follow these particular securities (portfolio or watch list) since these particular CEF's have had continuing bad numb3rs. I will take a look today and get back to you. CEF's never report all of the information (critical information) since they are always buying/selling securities in their portfolio. Currently they are looking at their 12/31 future date (end of year reporting) where they probably are in a quandary as to where the market will end this year.... 3... This is very true but "BUYS" [with market declines) always (normally) highlights "undervalued" securities at the current time. What we also need to observe are any large "selling" (current overvalued securities) which has future predictions implications.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Nov 30, 2021 16:41:47 GMT
richardsok, 2... Hate to tell you this but these particular CEF's are "collapsing" and the insider buying activity [5,000sh each] may be nothing more than to get some investors to help shore up some of the collapse. I see that EOI and ETY increased their dividends (in August) but my computer display indicates that the increases are unsustainable (going forward). Looking for a EOY payout would further damage their NAV if they were to do it ... In my case, I would pass (at the current time).... Live Long and Pass....
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Post by richardsok on Nov 30, 2021 18:43:52 GMT
richardsok , 2... Hate to tell you this but these particular CEF's are "collapsing" and the insider buying activity [5,000sh each] may be nothing more than to get some investors to help shore up some of the collapse. I see that EOI and ETY increased their dividends (in August) but my computer display indicates that the increases are unsustainable (going forward). Looking for a EOY payout would further damage their NAV if they were to do it ... In my case, I would pass (at the current time).... Live Long and Pass.... I must agree. Piqued by the insider buy news item, I just wanted to take a look at those CEFs. I wound up calling their investor relations office and asked for (A) current UNII numbers (B) coverage ratios (C) realized & unreal. gains and (D)income from operations for the quarter and the semi-annual. What I got was (1) a ONE MONTH statement dated Oct 31 showing income from ops and ROC (practically meaningless) and (2) a screen shot taken directly from cefconnect's "distribution" page for ETJ. FWIW, I did see elsewhere that most of Eaton Vance floating rate CEFs appear to be fully earning their payouts. Done and done. "Live long and pass...." Bravo.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 1, 2021 18:43:59 GMT
X:
Your: "I realize that you like (appear in love with) PCM, PKO, PDI, and PTY from some of your previous posts. I ran the analysis data on all four previously [+ others you mentioned]. While intriguing, the negative analysis data prevented me ....etc."
NEGATIVE ANALYSIS DATA ! ! ? On PCM, PKO, PDI, PTY ??
What are you seeing that I'm not?
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Post by xray on Dec 1, 2021 22:31:22 GMT
richardsok, Your: NEGATIVE ANALYSIS DATA ! ! ? On PCM, PKO, PDI, PTY ?? What are you seeing that I'm not? ---------- Keep in mind that we all analyze our buy/sells differently. In my case, I am always looking at current analysis data to make my decisions. My computer data is always "programmed for probabilities" for both CapGains along with current dividends. Nothing really wrong with the above securities that you are looking at but the "current" star rating is currently "4" star [below "5" star which is neutral) with a report card grades of "<60". Anything that will get my interest has to be 7star (1st buy signal) or higher with a report card grade >80 (preferably 90+).... You may be using historical's as part of your analysis while I am not. I always look at my current weekly data and "trends" (looking forward).... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 2, 2021 6:43:50 GMT
richardsok , Your: NEGATIVE ANALYSIS DATA ! ! ? On PCM, PKO, PDI, PTY ?? What are you seeing that I'm not? ---------- Keep in mind that we all analyze our buy/sells differently. In my case, I am always looking at current analysis data to make my decisions. My computer data is always "programmed for probabilities" for both CapGains along with current dividends. Nothing really wrong with the above securities that you are looking at but the "current" star rating is currently "4" star [below "5" star which is neutral) with a report card grades of "<60". Anything that will get my interest has to be 7star (1st buy signal) or higher with a report card grade >80 (preferably 90+).... You may be using historical's as part of your analysis while I am not. I always look at my current weekly data and "trends" (looking forward).... Live Long and Prosper.... xray...is this criteria used for bond funds as well as stock funds?? Is it to be used for LEVERAGED Funds?? PDI et al are fixed income bond/mortgage funds...leveraged. For instance, how would you program PDI for "capital gains" probabilities? TIA. R48
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Post by xray on Dec 2, 2021 11:44:40 GMT
retiredat48, Your:is this criteria used for bond funds as well as stock funds?? Is it to be used for LEVERAGED Funds?? PDI et al are fixed income bond/mortgage funds...leveraged. For instance, how would you program PDI for "capital gains" probabilities? --------- It has been a while (Morningstar). Welcome to the website.... The computers [programing wise] looks and analyzes everything. Makes no distinction of the type of investment (or leverage). The main problem in using this methodology is that you " cannot" program everything. " Selective" investment opportunities have to be put into the computer system (takes time for a new entry).... PDI, your example, would be programed in and the computer program (looks at all of the current data available) and makes a assessment. CapGain probabilities are defined by the (1) Projected forward momentum, (2) Power level differential over the current report card grade, (3) current dividend, (4) Discount, (5) Intrinsic value changes, and (5) Rf (risk assessment) analysis numb3rs.... " Never" foolproof but a no-brainer when comparing our emotions vs logic. Many times I have been re-directed because of the computers against something I liked (in love with). Also, it controls the numb3r of shares we might be buying.... Once something has been run through the computer system, the data is only good for a 3-month period {unfortunately). Another negative, is that the traders can change sectors @ any time and mutual funds (including CEF's) tend to buy/sell the same securities and data can change quite quickly. This is exceptionally true at the end of each Qtr when funds are changing their portfolio's for shareholder reporting (and why the data has to be redefined at that time).... Hope this helps some.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 3, 2021 20:20:01 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this afternoon, it appears that market selling continues to accelerate. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. Currently, many of us continue to have a safety factor with our current cash we are already holding but that may not be enough should the market keep accelerating at the current levels. Some of us (as dividend oriented investors) continue to maintain our current portfolio's with a minimum of 20%-30% "CASH" currently (and with CapGain taken for the current year)....
A portfolio re-review continues to be in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities well below preset thresholds. The decline this week was quite severe as the down push (selling) continues to exceed what we could have normally expected. Should it continue next week, investors will "continue" to be dealing with CapLosses instead of CapGains and further panic selling going into next year....
The CEF market, looking at my current data, continues to show a collapsing situation that many of us have not seen for quite a while now. It should be noted that I have never seen such negative numb3rs as we are seeing this current week....
Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. Next week is expected to be volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling (IMHO)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Dec 3, 2021 22:38:04 GMT
It occurs that if tax-deferred I-bonds are now paying a bit over 7%, that makes them suddenly very competitive with an entire host of CEFs paying (but often not earning!) 6-7%.
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 4, 2021 0:55:39 GMT
It occurs that if tax-deferred I-bonds are now paying a bit over 7%, that makes them suddenly very competitive with an entire host of CEFs paying (but often not earning!) 6-7%. richardsok , as we all know the biggest issue with I-bonds is the $10K/year limit per person. So a married couple can only invest $20K per year. And some lock-up period - which affects liquidity or change of mind.
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Post by xray on Dec 5, 2021 22:57:41 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this weekend, it appears that market selling continues to accelerate. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. .
A portfolio re-review continues to be in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities well below preset thresholds. The decline this week was quite severe as the down push (selling) continues to exceed what we could have normally expected. Should it continue next week, investors will "continue" to be dealing with CapLosses instead of CapGains and further panic selling going into next year....
The CEF market, looking at my current data, continues to show a collapsing situation that many of us have not seen for quite a while now. It should be noted that I have never seen such negative numb3rs as we are seeing this current week....
On the negative side, I continue to have some very low report card grades (<50) as they are following the collapsing market.However, always however's, I currently only show 3 (of the 20) securities with low Rf's (current portfolio risk factors for holding these <50 securities) which indicate to me that the market should be making a decision on direction this coming week....
On the positive side, currently half of my portfolio continues to have 7-10 star ratings with 9 [of 20] report card grades of >90+ and I am buying one security tomorrow off my watch list that has continues to have good numb3rs [and div] as well as increasing the number of shares in one in my current portfolio (insider buying activity related). Maintaining 17% cash currently with no selling activity being looked at (at this time). Currently, odd situation, the market value of the portfolio increased slightly from the previous week....
Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. Next week is expected to be volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling (IMHO)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Dec 6, 2021 12:58:50 GMT
Just came across this morning's WSJ article addressing the much-discussed old notion that bear markets are unlikely to begin around year-end. December, of course, is the month of bonuses, which should give the market powerful boost as new moneys flow into millions of 401Ks. If the notion has validity, this particular December strikes me as an opportune moment to build up protective hedges just ahead of 2022.
Well, possibly. I don't do market predictions.
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