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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 6, 2021 16:49:15 GMT
xray...thanks for your reply to my questions. Got it. R48
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Post by xray on Dec 6, 2021 21:53:34 GMT
uncleharley, richardsok, yogibearbull, steelpony10, rhythmmethod, Fearchar, retiredat48, steadyeddy, Zacks Are Investors Undervaluing These Oils-Energy Stocks Right Now?Zacks Equity Research Mon, December 6, 2021, 11:20 AM Here at Zacks, we focus on our proven ranking system, which places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions, to find winning stocks. But we also understand that investors develop their own strategies, so we are constantly looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong companies for our readers. Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors use fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are being undervalued by the market at large. On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today. CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) is a stock many investors are watching right now. CAPL is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), as well as a Value grade of A.Value investors also love the P/S ratio, which is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. CAPL has a P/S ratio of 0.24. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.39.Finally, we should also recognize that CAPL has a P/CF ratio of 8. This metric takes into account a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their solid cash outlook. This company's current P/CF looks solid when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 8.10. Over the past 52 weeks, CAPL's P/CF has been as high as 9.37 and as low as 3.63, with a median of 6.97. ---------- Comment: Looking at my current data for CAPL (COB Friday): Currently 10star, 10star for last 13wk period, Last weeks weekly analysis numb3rs 375/825 (must be >+277/+605). Current dividend 10.73%, Major discount +1.33, Intrinsic value increased +0.07 (must be >-0.12). Rf (Risk value to current portfolio's +0.492 [must be >+0.242). Current sell code for portfolio's is 1 (low risk).... Disclosure: Some of us continue to currently hold full positions [6% or greater) in CAPL.... Market thinking today: CAPL closed down today @ 19.28 (just above last insider buy on 11/29 @ 19.25 for 10,000sh).... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by richardsok on Dec 6, 2021 22:40:13 GMT
Hi X,
Glad you brought up CAPL, and thanks for the Zacks data.
Back in October, you'll remember I was almost giddy about its trajectory. As posted, I sold half my block on 10/28 (pre XD) for 22.43; a solid gain (TY). I hung on to the rest for the div -- but the XD fall-off, as you know, was way deeper than expected and I dumped the rest for a small loss on 11/3 for 20.82. (With the div, I'm still ahead, so no tears.)
A month has past since my last sell date, and I might pick it up now for about 19.27, but the question is WHY?
Adding some more data to your Zacks article, I have a current EPS of .49 and, even with the projected growth of new stores coming into play, an estimated annual EPS next year of 1.11 (finviz) --- way less than the 2.10 dividend. Mediocre TipRanks score of /5/, a PE of almost 40 (Merrill Lyn).
I in no way gainsay Zacks or your research, but the numbers I come up with don't look so exciting.
As ever, I have just enough ability to be dangerous to myself and am wondering what I am missing.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 7, 2021 0:02:53 GMT
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Post by xray on Dec 7, 2021 15:23:38 GMT
uncleharley, richardsok, yogibearbull, steelpony10, rhythmmethod, Fearchar, retiredat48, steadyeddy, richardsok.... Your: 1... Back in October, you'll remember I was almost giddy about its trajectory. As posted, I sold half my block on 10/28 (pre XD) for 22.43; a solid gain (TY). I hung on to the rest for the div -- but the XD fall-off, as you know, was way deeper than expected and I dumped the rest for a small loss on 11/3 for 20.82. (With the div, I'm still ahead, so no tears.) 2... A month has past since my last sell date, and I might pick it up now for about 19.27, but the question is WHY? 3... Adding some more data to your Zacks article, I have a current EPS of .49 and, even with the projected growth of new stores coming into play, an estimated annual EPS next year of 1.11 (finviz) --- way less than the 2.10 dividend. Mediocre TipRanks score of /5/, a PE of almost 40 (Merrill Lyn). I in no way gainsay Zacks or your research, but the numbers I come up with don't look so exciting. Wondering what I am missing. --------- 1... Keep in mind that some of us do not sell out any security for a loss (unless 2008/2009 related). We "try" to be buy/hold types with what we buy because of what we believe about the security we are investing in. With that said.... Some of us use out/in (and later dollar cost MktBuyPrc averaging) if/when a security falls off in value. We continue to very good CapGains (using our analysis data for timing purposes and very different methodology).... 2... If/when CAPL were to go below 19.25 (insider buying activity), CAPL (looking at the their previous Qtr results and Zack's current opinion) would become a current buy for many income/div investors [IMHO]. My current data supports this (sole) opinion. CAPL jumped a little this morning (+$0.36/sh) in early morning trading) above the 19.25 threshold. 2nd Qtr results are expected to be better than the 1st Qtr (going forward ... looking ahead). Many of us do not use chart data except to answer questions about the data we are reviewing.... 3... The 2.10 dividend (x10) indicates a current $21.00 MktPrc [10% div] and is more than acceptable for income/CapGains investors (again sole opinion because of my goals and Objectives).... 4... You are not missing anything since you are not dividend driven investors like some of us. Many of us want to continually protect our CapGains and will sit with our securities during down markets (collect the dividends for continued income with out the normal CapGains normally collected over a extended period).... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 8, 2021 16:16:06 GMT
MY: Post by xray on Dec 5, 2021 at 5:57pm Looking at my analytical data this weekend, it appears that market selling continues to accelerate. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. .
On the positive side, currently half of my portfolio continues to have 7-10 star ratings with 9 [of 20] report card grades of >90+ and I am buying one security tomorrow off my watch list that has continues to have good numb3rs [and div] as well as increasing the number of shares in one in my current portfolio (insider buying activity related). Maintaining 17% cash currently with no selling activity being looked at (at this time). Currently, odd situation, the market value of the portfolio increased slightly from the previous week....
Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. Next week is expected to be volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling (IMHO)....
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On Monday, some of us bought (off of our watch list) the CEF "DPG":
Data COB Friday.... Star Rating: 9star last 4wk period 13wk Star Rating: 8.51 stars MktPrc: 14.08 Report Card grade: 85 (0-100 rating system) Power Rating: 93 (Power rating must be > than 6 points for any buying activity) Analysis Projection forward: 100 Last insider buy/sell activity: 1/16/20, 1,000sh 15.25 Best MktBuyPrc: 14.05
Last week's analysis numb3rs: +326 (need >+277) Analysis numb3rs projection: +717 (need >+605) Crash MktPrc numb3r expected: 13.57
Current dividend: 9.94% Current Premium: -0.95 (need >+1.06) MTB: -0.99 (need >-0.98)
NAV: 13.42 NAV Power Average: +13.54 (need >+13.65) Change from November: -0.15 (need >-0.23) YTT Chart verification Numb3r: +1.28 (need >+1.57)
Portfolio Pre-Review for activation: Risk Value numb3r (Rf): +0.785 (need >+0.242) Chart #2 (current sell code for selling): 2 (some normal risk) Chart #3 (current report card rating): 100 (perfect score) Chart #4 (% of portfolio risk): Phase #1 (2-4%) low risk
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On Monday, some of us added shares to the CEF "USA":
Data COB Friday.... Star Rating: 8star last 4wk period 13wk Star Rating: 8.00 stars MktPrc: 7.88 Report Card grade: 80 (0-100 rating system) Power Rating: 88 (Power rating must be > than 6 points for any buying activity) Analysis Projection forward: 75 Last insider buy/sell activity: 12/2/20, 7,000sh 7.78 Best MktBuyPrc: 8.18
Last week's analysis numb3rs: +306 (need >+277) Analysis numb3rs projection: +667 (need >+605) Crash MktPrc numb3r expected: 7.99
Current dividend: 10.66% Current Premium: -0.99 (need >+1.06) MTB: -0.99 (need >-0.98)
NAV: 7.84 NAV Power Average: +8.02 (need >+13.65) Change from November: -0.15 (need >-0.23) YTT Chart verification Numb3r: +0.83 (need >+1.57)
Portfolio Pre-Review for activation: Risk Value numb3r (Rf): +0.186 (need >+0.242) Chart #2 (current sell code for selling): 4 (Neutral) - Follows NasDaq & S&P500 Chart #3 (current report card rating code): 1 (Low risk) Chart #4 (% of portfolio risk number): Phase 1 (0-2%) No risk
One single opinion of the many I am sure....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Fearchar on Dec 10, 2021 2:17:06 GMT
xray, "Current dividend: 10.66%" Really; where are you getting that?
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Post by xray on Dec 10, 2021 11:51:22 GMT
Fearchar, Your: xray, "Current dividend: 10.66%". Really; where are you getting that? Oops, I stand corrected. The percentage was what some of us are currently receiving against our current MktBuyPrc. The correct % (COB Friday), for any new initial buys, should be 9.77% (still a good buy IMHO especially if the market declines today, or going forward, with any mktPrc decline IMHO). Some of us expect another dividend increase for 2022.... Sorry about that.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Fearchar on Dec 10, 2021 14:02:47 GMT
xray, Okay thanks. Was thrown off a bit by the symbol!
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Post by xray on Dec 15, 2021 11:44:24 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this weekend, it appears that market selling continues to accelerate. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. .
A portfolio re-review continues to be in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities well below preset thresholds. The decline this week was moderate to what we could have normally expected. Should it continue this week, investors will "continue" to be dealing with CapLosses instead of CapGains and further panic selling going into next year....
The CEF market, looking at my current data, continues to show a collapsing situation that many of us have not seen for quite a while now. It should be noted that I have never seen such negative numb3rs week-to-week....
Maintaining 15-20% cash currently with no selling activity being looked at (for the remainder of the year). Locked in 43% for the year in CapGains with >9.5% dividends for 2201 tax year). Currently, odd situation, the market value of the portfolio is approximately the same but expected to go lower as the market is currently "crashing" (according to current analysis data). What is going on, sole opinion of course, is that both investors and traders are using "wash-sales" and tax savings (different Tax rates for 2021/2022) to get out of the market ....
Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. Rest of the year is expected to be volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling (IMHO)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 15, 2021 11:52:24 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this weekend, it appears that market selling continues to accelerate. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. . A portfolio re-review continues to be in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities well below preset thresholds. The decline this week was moderate to what we could have normally expected. Should it continue this week, investors will "continue" to be dealing with CapLosses instead of CapGains and further panic selling going into next year.... The CEF market, looking at my current data, continues to show a collapsing situation that many of us have not seen for quite a while now. It should be noted that I have never seen such negative numb3rs week-to-week.... Maintaining 15-20% cash currently with no selling activity being looked at (for the remainder of the year). Locked in 43% for the year in CapGains with >9.5% dividends for 2201 tax year). Currently, odd situation, the market value of the portfolio is approximately the same but expected to go lower as the market is currently "crashing" (according to current analysis data). What is going on, sole opinion of course, is that both investors and traders are using "wash-sales" and tax savings (different Tax rates for 2021/2022) to get out of the market .... Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. Rest of the year is expected to be volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling (IMHO).... Live Long and Prosper.... You seem to be implying that we are in a traders market. If so, The daily chart for the S&P 500 seems to confirm that idea with its unpredictable daily moves and what looks like a topping pattern being formed over the past couple of weeks. My thought is that prudent F I investors will be O K, but there are some equity mutual funds that will probably get a haircut.
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Post by xray on Dec 15, 2021 19:45:55 GMT
uncleharley, Your: You seem to be implying that we are in a traders market. If so, The daily chart for the S&P 500 seems to confirm that idea with its unpredictable daily moves and what looks like a topping pattern being formed over the past couple of weeks. My thought is that prudent F I investors will be O K, but there are some equity mutual funds that will probably get a haircut. ......... My data show we "are" in "BOTH" a Traders market along with "Wash-Sale" type investors (including the "TAX" deferred type investors) similar to 2018 analysis type data. Can't fight the market participants and their current actions. Your statements are very true (IMHO).... Take a look at AVK (originally sold it in the 1st Qtr with substantial CapGain and when the dividend dropped below my Goal & Objectives). AVK has been improving in both NAV and MktPrc since then. . I posted (this morning) about AVK EOY. AVK has a "NORMAL" current dividend of $1.4064 + the new "SUPPLEMENTAL" dividend of $1.387385 (= total of $2.793785). Since the MktPrc this morning was 18.32 in early morning trading (at "discount"), the dividend for 20.21 and 20.22 is estimated at >+$2.10 as a minimum (no brainer for "volatile markets next year).... As you are aware I don't look at charts, and use analysis data only (charts for substantiating my data). Currently, AVK is "NEUTRAL" at a consistent 5star with only a 60 report card (70 power rating though). On the negative side, insider activity shows 19,000sh were sold @ 18.52 on November 22nd. Current MktPrc (COB Friday was 17.98 against their NAV of 19.29). Current NAV this morning was 18.85.... In addition, Modern Capital Funds Trust Buys PIMCO High Income Fund, Advent Claymore Convt Security & ... insider Tue, December 14, 2021, 10:38 AM Investment company Modern Capital Funds Trust (Current Portfolio) buys PIMCO High Income Fund, Advent Claymore Convt Security & Income Fund, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust, Neuberger Berman MLP and Energy Income Fund Inc, PIMCO Income Strategy Fund II, sells Highland Income Fund, Gabelli Equity Trust Inc, The Cushing MLP & Infrastructure Total Return Fund, Seven Hills Realty Trust during the 3-months ended 2021Q3, according to the most recent filings of the investment company, Modern Capital Funds Trust. As of 2021Q3, Modern Capital Funds Trust owns 39 stocks with a total value of $5 million. These are the details of the buys and sells. New Purchases: PHK, AVK, NXDT, NML, PFN, BDJ, IGR, AOD, KRP, VOC, SMM, EMD, BRW, NRGX, AWP, GHY, BBAR, BRFS, GGN, BSM, GER, FAX, DESP, FLBR, CEE, NRO, SWZ, TGS, NTG, EDD, SUPV, ---------- Disclosure: Bought a initial phase "0" position (0-2% of total portfolio) this morning.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Dec 19, 2021 19:51:32 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this weekend, it appears that market selling, not only continues to accelerate, but has reached "Critical stage #1". This type of "RISK" to portfolio's is getting somewhat critical. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. .
A portfolio re-review continues to be in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities "well below" preset thresholds. The decline this week was considered "excessive" to what we would have normally expected. Should it continue this coming week, investors will "continue" to be dealing with some large CapLosses instead of CapGains and further "panic selling" going into next year....
The CEF market, looking at my current data, continues to show a collapsing situation that many of us have not seen for quite a while now. It should be noted that I have never seen such negative numb3rs going on from week-to-week....
Maintaining 10-15% cash currently with no selling activity being looked at (for the remainder of the year). Locked in 43% for the year in CapGains with >9.96% dividends for the coming 2201 tax year with two new buy's this past week). Currently, odd situation, the market value of my current portfolio is slightly higher but expected to go lower as the market is currently "crashing" (according to current analysis data). What is going on, sole opinion of course, is that both investors and traders are continuing to use "wash-sales" and tax savings (different Tax rates for 2021/2022) to get out of the market ....
Rf [Risk assessment] numb3rs are moving to negative numb3rs and this is a bad sign. Report card grades (and power ratings) are going lower at a faster rate. On the positive side, some of our good buys previously are continuing to do well (>75 Report card Grade)....
Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. Rest of the year is expected to be volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling (IMHO)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jan 17, 2022 22:09:30 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this weekend, it appears that the market continues (in general) selling. This type of "RISK" to portfolio's is getting somewhat critical. We discussed this over the last month and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. .
A portfolio re-review continues to be in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities "well below" preset thresholds. The decline this week was considered "excessive" to what we would have normally expected. Should it continue in the coming weeks, investors will "continue" to be dealing with some CapLosses instead of CapGains and further "panic selling" going forward this year....
The CEF market, looking at my current data, continues to show a collapsing situation that many of us have been seeing for quite a while now. It should be noted that I have never seen such continued negative numb3rs going on from week-to-week....
Maintaining 20-25% cash currently with continued selling activity for January. Bargains, overlooked positive securities are being bought in this changing market. Locked in 43% for the 2021 in CapGains with >9.96% dividends. For the current 2201 tax year, and the market continuing to decline, >10% dividends are possible (currently 10.08 in my case as a dividend investor). Currently, odd situation, the market value of my current portfolio is slightly higher but expected to go lower as the market is currently "crashing" everything (according to current analysis data). What is going on, sole opinion of course, is that both investors and traders are continuing to use "wash-sales" and tax savings (different Tax rates for 2021/2022) to "change their thinking on the market"....
Rf [Risk assessment] numb3rs are changing and now moving to positive numb3rs and this is a good sign. Report card grades (and power ratings) are going lower at a faster rate for "over-valued" securities. On the positive side, some of our previous 8-10star buys continue to do well (>88 Report card Grade). In addition, many of us are reducing some of our over bought positions back to "minimum" (2-4% of portfolio) since they are currently considered out of favor by investors....
Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. 2022 is expected to be volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling (IMHO)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Jan 23, 2022 20:18:56 GMT
Looking at my analytical data this weekend, it appears that the market is now "crashing" (in general and selling off. This type of "RISK" to portfolio's is now critical (no future Buy/selling this current week). We discussed this over the last month+ and some of us have created a safety cash buffer (risk tolerance allocation vs increasing cash allocation) to a percentage holding that we all believe will match our current "Risk" safety factor. .
A portfolio re-review continues to be in order as the selling appears to have taken some securities "well below" preset thresholds. The decline this week was "AGAIN" considered "excessive" to what we would have normally expected. Should it continue in the coming weeks, investors will "continue" to be dealing with some "MAJOR" CapLosses (if selling) instead of CapGains with further "panic selling" continuing this year....
The CEF market, looking at my current data, continues in a collapsing situation that many of us have been seeing for quite a while now. It should be noted that I have never seen such continued negative numb3rs going on from week-to-week....
Maintaining (RISK ORIENTED) cash position currently with no selling activity for January. Bargains, overlooked positive securities are no longer being bought in this changing market. For the current 2201 tax year, and the continuing market in further decline, >10% dividends remain possible (currently 10.08 in my case as a dividend investor). Currently, what is going on (sole opinion of course) is that both investors and traders are bailing out of the market. INSIDER SELLING IS ACCELERATING and indicates that many investors/traders are of the belief they can buy back the better performing securities "AFTER" the market again stabilizes (at a much lower price than currently)....
Rf [Risk assessment] numb3rs are changing and now moving to very "NEGATIVE" numb3rs and this is a "Warning Indicator" sign. Report card grades (and power ratings) are going much lower and at a faster rate for "over-valued" (and also the @ PREMIUM" type CEF's) securities. Many of us have already reduced some of our over bought positions back to "minimum" (2-4% of portfolio) since they are currently considered out of favor by investors....
Word to the wise. Take the time (and effort) to evaluate and re-analyze what is in our current portfolio's. 2022 is expected to be "VERY" volatile as the traders will continue to make money on short plays and making CapGains daily/weekly on investor panic selling continues (IMHO).
Bottom Line: Market is currently very good for "TRADERS" (HIGH RISK PLAYERS) and not investors (LOW RISK)....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Feb 3, 2022 16:58:40 GMT
Yahoo Finance Investors buying the dip ‘better buckle up their seat belts’ Alexandra Semenova·Reporter Thu, February 3, 2022, 6:42 AM
“Buy the dip” has been a headline-making phrase lately. Whether from professional strategists, or in the form of a meme on Twitter, the mantra has inspired an entire generation of investors to go bargain hunting for stocks in the face of a market pullback.
Moreover, price action since the onset of the pandemic has generally favored that strategy: every drawdown since the beginning of 2020 has been followed by a comeback to a new high.
Stay ahead of the market
But after a dismal start to the year for equities, and amid a backdrop of a capricious Federal Reserve gearing up to tighten monetary conditions and raise interest rates, dip-buyers anticipating consistent rebounds to all-time highs may have to temper their expectations — at least in the short term.
The S&P 500 posted a negative return of 5.26% for January 2022 – marking its worst month since the benchmark plunged 12.5% in March 2020 after COVID-19 upended the global economy.
LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick points out that poor January performance has historically been followed by weakness in February. Data collected by LPL going back to 1960 showed that after drops of 5% or more in the S&P 500, February performance has been lower six of the past seven times, with muted returns over the final 11 months of the year. To add to that, February has been one of the worst months of the year for the index since 1950, with only September being worse.
“We are encouraged by the big reversal in stocks last week and we think stocks are in the process of forming a meaningful bottom,” Detrick said in a note. “But the truth is, this year is going to be much more volatile than last year and investors had better buckle up their seat belts if the first month is any indication.”
Dip buying has proven to be a winning strategy even before the pandemic market boom. In an analysis of the S&P 500 over the past 12 years, Compound Advisors’ Charlie Bilello found that since 2009, whether experiencing loops of minor dips and quick recoveries, or large downturns followed by vertical comebacks, the index has always forged ahead to new highs.
However, a further look back shows this has not always been the case. The S&P 500 took seven years to reach a new high from 2000 to 2007 after a 51% decline between March 2000 and October 2002 from its previous record, and six years to notch a fresh high from 2008 to 2014 after a 58% loss between October 2007 and March 2010.
“While it’s always hard to predict the bottom of any market sell-off, we believe the risk-reward for U.S. stocks is getting attractive,” UBS equity strategist David Lefkowitz wrote in a recent note, also indicating the sell-off in past weeks felt uncomfortable because investors have become accustomed to a period of limited drawdowns over the past 15 months.
UBS also added that investors selling off on the prospect of Fed tightening may be a bit “too cautious,” pointing out that stocks have risen by an average of 5% in the three months before the Fed’s first rate hike since 1983, despite an initial ramp up in volatility once the hiking cycle begins.
'A good entry point for longer-term investors'
Hodges Funds portfolio manager Eric Marshall told Yahoo Finance that investors should use the dip as a buying opportunity, but rather than indiscriminately buying the market, use the broader pullback as an opportunity to upgrade portfolio holdings.
“This is a time to use a rifle, not a shotgun,” Marshall said. “While some investors rush to the sidelines during a period of volatility and uncertainty, our investing approach during this type of sell-off has always been to use periods of increased volatility to find bargains and add to those stocks with valuations that have a significant disconnect to their underlying fundamentals.”
Anxiety over what the Fed will do wreaked havoc on markets in January. The S&P 500 tiptoed into correction territory last week (though clawing back to end up 0.08%) after remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the central bank’s two-day policy-setting meeting strongly signaled a liftoff on interest rates to above their current near-zero levels was likely to come in March. But some on Wall Street have called the market’s reaction overblown.
"The equity market sell-off is overdone in our view, and we reiterate our call to buy the dip, particularly in cyclicals and small caps," said JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic in a new research note.
Other institutions on the Street have echoed similar sentiments.
“To the extent that zero interest rate policies, negative real interest rates and quantitative easing have been supportive for risk assets, it is understandable that a perceived move away from these supports should cause a correction, particularly given high valuations,” Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a recent note. “But this adjustment has now been reflected in the markets and the downside risks from here are much lower so long as economies can grow.”
Oppenheimer added that “we are getting closer to levels that have typically been a good entry point for longer-term investors.”
Villere & Co. portfolio manager Lamar Villere told Yahoo Finance: “While we expect to see continued volatility in 2022, it seems as though every time a member of the Fed Board of Governors speaks at a luncheon, the market jolts and provides new opportunities.”
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Comment: My current analysis data continues to show a (in general) declining market. Continuing to hold 20% cash with no changes in current portfolio....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by xray on Feb 14, 2022 22:55:37 GMT
uncleharley, richardsok, yogibearbull, steelpony10, rhythmmethod, Fearchar, retiredat48, steadyeddy, Reference: My last Post Comment: My current analysis data continues to show a (in general) declining market. Continuing to hold 20% cash with no changes in current portfolio.... ---- As of this morning, some of us have increased our cash position to 45% [looking forward to a possible 75% in the short term) as my computer data has turned extremely negative with many securities now showing " FAIL". The data shows to avoid buying currently with a 6.71 scoring (need >7.00). Hopefully, we are not again going back to the 2008/2009 era where we lost a lot of income oriented investors. Traders, on the other hand, may be doing well with daily/weekly trade buy/sell orientation.... In addition, some of us have reduced our total portfolio to 18 securities (want 16) and reducing some securities back to a Phase #2 "Normal Risk" (4% max). Some securities will remain @ Phase #3 "At Risk" with no one security >6% (sold out >6%) for those securities showing continued good performance and reducing some back to Phase #2 Normal Risk (4% max) based on reduction in analysis performance.... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 0:12:12 GMT
Well that is discouraging x-ray. Short of 1) a huge mess up by the Fed with inflation - at least a small mess up is already probable, but with magnitude TBD - 2) another world shutting down event or 3) war not limited to Eastern Europe, what would cause such? Panic? We have a strong economy and the world finally opening up. Some air has come out of overpriced assets. Likening this to 2008/2009 which kind of took us all by surprise doesn't seem compelling. What am I missing?
I agree it's a declining market. I try to focus on valuation to mitigate some of the fallout/
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 15, 2022 1:20:18 GMT
I see slowing economic indicators... most important one for the USA is consumer sentiment. While the economy appears strong, I don't think the trends justify the sentiment.
Washington D.C. has been a disaster... we went from Energy independence to importing gasoline again.
I do agree that this market is not about to do 2008, the Fed won't let it.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 15, 2022 13:01:28 GMT
Well that is discouraging x-ray. Short of 1) a huge mess up by the Fed with inflation - at least a small mess up is already probable, but with magnitude TBD - 2) another world shutting down event or 3) war not limited to Eastern Europe, what would cause such? Panic? We have a strong economy and the world finally opening up. Some air has come out of overpriced assets. Likening this to 2008/2009 which kind of took us all by surprise doesn't seem compelling. What am I missing? I agree it's a declining market. I try to focus on valuation to mitigate some of the fallout/ I doubt that you are missing very much, however you may be surprised when the current PPI is announced later today. My "opinion" is that the fed is behind the curve on controlling inflation and they are doing nothing to catch up. The surprise will be when the magnitude is determined. jmho A look at the longer term CRB index versus the WTIC chart indicates that the CRB is reaching new highs while oil remains in a trading range. The CRB index is heavily weighted towards energy. In order for the CRB to be outperforming oil by as much as it is, the other, minor components have to be skyrocketing. The PPI should be revealing.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 13:22:54 GMT
I don't even care if the ppi is "good!" I very much think inflation is higher than the market is expecting. I think they are doing something - they are floating different rate increases, softening us up. We are all now pretty okay with quicker and higher increases. People I follow have said this would happen for months and months.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 15, 2022 13:27:13 GMT
@slooow, steadyeddy, uncleharley , the Fed was partly to blame for inflation. The bulk of it comes from Congress for spending willy nilly. Covid relief could have been handled much better without throwing unlimited money at the problem along with the spending bills. This is a horrible mess with no end in sight. I read that junk corporates lead equities. Looking at some HY bond OEFs, they are acting like 2008 and 2020. I cannot forecast that type of market, just saying. Not sure the Fed can raise rates until QE is done next month. That was/is their plan. Want to do something Congress? Open up oil drilling and build pipelines! Can't put ideology ahead of practicality. Incentivize EVs. That is how Tesla happened.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2022 13:35:37 GMT
@slooow and steadyeddy , the Fed was partly to blame for inflation. The bulk of it comes from Congress for spending willy nilly. Covid relief could have been handled much better without throwing unlimited money at the problem. This is a horrible mess with no end in sight. I read that junk corporates lead equities. Looking at some HY bond OEFs, they are acting like 2008 and 2020. I cannot forecast that type of market, just saying. I respectfully disagree, but it really doesn't matter. Monetarist theory - which I've quoted before and become even more convicted in says different. An argument that won't be won. I think the Fed did an awesome job. We can all certainly thank them for our accumulated retirement assets. I don't know about HY bond OEfs. But if you think they are acting like 2008 and 2020 - time to sell? I am expecting to rock 'n' roll and be okay when all the high water passes.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 15, 2022 13:40:17 GMT
Of course the Fed did OK. They went overboard buying so long IMHO. That is why I said the "bulk of it comes from Congress....".
I don't sell equities unless it is to capture a CG.
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Post by xray on Feb 20, 2022 21:12:39 GMT
uncleharley, richardsok, yogibearbull, steelpony10, rhythmmethod, Fearchar, retiredat48, steadyeddy, Reference: My last Post As of this morning, some of us have increased our cash position to 45% [looking forward to a possible 75% in the short term) as my computer data has turned extremely negative with many securities now showing "FAIL". The data shows to avoid buying currently with a 6.71 scoring (need >7.00). Hopefully, we are not again going back to the 2008/2009 era where we lost a lot of income oriented investors. Traders, on the other hand, may be doing well with daily/weekly trade buy/sell orientation.... In addition, some of us have reduced our total portfolio to 18 securities (want 16) and reducing some securities back to a Phase #2 "Normal Risk" (4% max). Some securities will remain @ Phase #3 "At Risk" with no one security >6% (sold out >6%) for those securities showing continued good performance and reducing some back to Phase #2 Normal Risk (4% max) based on reduction in analysis performance.... ---------- ............................................................... DON'T KILL THE MESSENGER ................................................. As of this morning, some of us have DEcreased our cash position to 40% [looking forward to a possible 75% going forward) as my computer data has turned extremely negative with many securities now showing " FAIL". The data shows to avoid buying currently with a 6.09 vs 6.71 scoring last week (need >7.00 for any buying activity). Hopefully, we are not again going back to the 2008/2009 era where we lost a lot of income oriented investors. Professional traders, Options, short sellers (and hedge funds) on the other hand, are probably doing well with their daily/weekly trade buy/sell orientation.... In addition, some of us have increased, with current buying last week, (buying undervalued securities which turned out to be a mistake) our total portfolio to 20 securities (still want 16). Some securities will remain @ Phase #3 "At Risk" with no one security >6% for those securities still showing continued good performance and reducing some back to Phase #2 Normal Risk (4% max) based on reduction in analysis performance.... Also, Will be off the air this coming week as the market should be very volatile with the (war) possibility of a further decline (like last week). Being long term oriented, short term up/downs can falsely be shown in our data analysis. Friday of next week should be very interesting (to my point of view) where some mistakes may be corrected (big time).... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 21, 2022 1:02:02 GMT
uncleharley , richardsok , yogibearbull , steelpony10 , rhythmmethod , Fearchar , retiredat48 , steadyeddy , Reference: My last Post As of this morning, some of us have increased our cash position to 45% [looking forward to a possible 75% in the short term) as my computer data has turned extremely negative with many securities now showing "FAIL". The data shows to avoid buying currently with a 6.71 scoring (need >7.00). Hopefully, we are not again going back to the 2008/2009 era where we lost a lot of income oriented investors. Traders, on the other hand, may be doing well with daily/weekly trade buy/sell orientation.... In addition, some of us have reduced our total portfolio to 18 securities (want 16) and reducing some securities back to a Phase #2 "Normal Risk" (4% max). Some securities will remain @ Phase #3 "At Risk" with no one security >6% (sold out >6%) for those securities showing continued good performance and reducing some back to Phase #2 Normal Risk (4% max) based on reduction in analysis performance.... ---------- ............................................................... DON'T KILL THE MESSENGER ................................................. As of this morning, some of us have DEcreased our cash position to 40% [looking forward to a possible 75% going forward) as my computer data has turned extremely negative with many securities now showing " FAIL". The data shows to avoid buying currently with a 6.09 vs 6.71 scoring last week (need >7.00 for any buying activity). Hopefully, we are not again going back to the 2008/2009 era where we lost a lot of income oriented investors. Professional traders, Options, short sellers (and hedge funds) on the other hand, are probably doing well with their daily/weekly trade buy/sell orientation.... In addition, some of us have increased, with current buying last week, (buying undervalued securities which turned out to be a mistake) our total portfolio to 20 securities (still want 16). Some securities will remain @ Phase #3 "At Risk" with no one security >6% for those securities still showing continued good performance and reducing some back to Phase #2 Normal Risk (4% max) based on reduction in analysis performance.... Also, Will be off the air this coming week as the market should be very volatile with the (war) possibility of a further decline (like last week). Being long term oriented, short term up/downs can falsely be shown in our data analysis. Friday of next week should be very interesting (to my point of view) where some mistakes may be corrected (big time).... Live Long and Prosper.... I have already reduced my market exposure to 34% of the total portfolio.
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Post by Chahta on Feb 21, 2022 14:34:40 GMT
steadyeddy, I forget. Are you an accumulator or a retiree?
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 22, 2022 1:00:29 GMT
steadyeddy , I forget. Are you an accumulator or a retiree? Chahta, Aspiring retiree in a few years.
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Post by xray on Mar 1, 2022 12:11:52 GMT
uncleharley, richardsok, yogibearbull, steelpony10, rhythmmethod, Fearchar, retiredat48, steadyeddy, My: Reference: My last Post............................................................... DON'T KILL THE MESSENGER ................................................. As of this morning, some of us have DEcreased our cash position to 40% [looking forward to a possible 75% going forward) as my computer data has turned extremely negative with many securities now showing "FAIL". The data shows to avoid buying currently with a 6.09 vs 6.71 scoring last week (need >7.00 for any buying activity). Hopefully, we are not again going back to the 2008/2009 era where we lost a lot of income oriented investors. Professional traders, Options, short sellers (and hedge funds) on the other hand, are probably doing well with their daily/weekly trade buy/sell orientation.... In addition, some of us have increased, with current buying last week, (buying undervalued securities which turned out to be a mistake) our total portfolio to 20 securities (still want 16). Some securities will remain @ Phase #3 "At Risk" with no one security >6% for those securities still showing continued good performance and reducing some back to Phase #2 Normal Risk (4% max) based on reduction in analysis performance.... Also, Will be off the air this coming week as the market should be very volatile with the (war) possibility of a further decline (like last week). Being long term oriented, short term up/downs can falsely be shown in our data analysis. Friday of next week should be very interesting (to my point of view) where some mistakes may be corrected (big time).... ---------- Current analysis data indicates that market had a slight uptick last week. However, always however's, many securities went to new low's in book values and NAV's (even though their MktPrc's increased). On the positive side, there are some (very) selective securities that are considered very undervalued (by analysis). Some of us are putting some of our cash to work and dollar cost averaging (down) some of our higher MktBuy prices. Our cash position will be dropping to 25% (looking to a possible 50% if analysis data continues to go negative this week).... Add to this that "insider buying" is very quiet indicating that the insiders do not believe that we have yet to hit their magic buy prices for being undervalued. There are some "Grant Awards" and "Beneficial Ownership" announcements but that is considered "noise" in the scheme of things and where the market is at the present time.... The market is considered "DANGEROUS" for investors but has "new" possibilities for income investors. Some securities are showing very high dividends and distributions but they also show that they cannot maintain their "current" dividends and distributions and should be lowering them in the very near future (IMHO).... I took notice within the analysis data that some of our good performing securities "continue" to hold up well and will perform well in the next "up" market cycle (whenever that might occur).... We must remember that there is a war going on and the world is getting involved and red flags for investing are being waved at us. " Risk" is increasing and all of us should take notice and invest "only to our own individual RISK TOLERANCE" (for possible loss of capital going forward).... Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 1, 2022 14:15:17 GMT
Yes!!! Risk is increasing for anyone purchasing "risk" securities. Fwiw Gold, Silver, and U S treasuries are trending up.
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