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Post by Chahta on Jun 20, 2022 1:38:36 GMT
I've been reading this thread and I don't think anyone has mentioned 'defaults'. With a recession likely, if not already here, and the financial condition of many large cities, is anyone concerned about defaults of some High Yield Muni Bonds? I heard a radio reporter a couple months ago say that big money managers were recommending muni funds, to hold during a coming recession. The money managers think this is a good place to be in a recession and don’t believe defaults will be an issue. This happened shortly before the recent mini muni rally. I don’t remember all the details. But look at the generous tax free yield available.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 20, 2022 3:15:19 GMT
I've been reading this thread and I don't think anyone has mentioned 'defaults'. With a recession likely, if not already here, and the financial condition of many large cities, is anyone concerned about defaults of some High Yield Muni Bonds? The best way to know is to follow the price=chart. When it's an uptrend (or at least not falling) it's a good sign. When things go bad, prices go down, I try to understand but I really don't care why? I sell. The explanation and excuses don't make money. Nobody is going to announce, what/why things are bad. Even if they do, they can be wrong. For years, I read so many opinions and facts that didn't have any effect on the price. So, the key is: if you want to buy and hold and be "sure", then just buy VG simple funds. If you want to make more, you better read markets and invest accordingly. Why not keep it simple: 1) If rates are going up and rapidly, is it good for bonds? 2) Do you see lower risk in the markets, lower inflation, easier Fed? No, stay away. It's going on for months already.
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Post by anovice on Jun 21, 2022 1:02:39 GMT
I've been reading this thread and I don't think anyone has mentioned 'defaults'. With a recession likely, if not already here, and the financial condition of many large cities, is anyone concerned about defaults of some High Yield Muni Bonds? This Wealthtrack interview with Mary Ellen Stanek, President of Baird Funds was on 6-10-22. www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZWuoSlfaCoShe believes that the municipal market is very solid because states received a lot of money from the government during the pandemic. States such as California and Texas have a lot of surplus.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 21, 2022 18:36:21 GMT
I've been reading this thread and I don't think anyone has mentioned 'defaults'. With a recession likely, if not already here, and the financial condition of many large cities, is anyone concerned about defaults of some High Yield Muni Bonds? This Wealthtrack interview with Mary Ellen Stanek, President of Baird Funds was on 6-10-22. www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZWuoSlfaCoShe believes that the municipal market is very solid because states received a lot of money from the government during the pandemic. States such as California and Texas have a lot of surplus. She is right, did she say when to buy? Since June 10 the Muni funds below lost 2%. .
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Post by Chahta on Jul 7, 2022 13:05:10 GMT
Munis rallying for 2 weeks now.
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 7, 2022 19:24:20 GMT
Munis rallying for 2 weeks now. The signal was already on June 29-30.
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bf22
Commander
Posts: 135
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Post by bf22 on Jul 12, 2022 2:48:01 GMT
Munis rallying for 2 weeks now. The signal was already on June 29-30. I'm sorry you missed it.
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Post by chang on Dec 23, 2022 12:24:41 GMT
Is it safe to get back into VWAHX? Maybe a bit?
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hondo
Commander
Posts: 145
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Post by hondo on Dec 23, 2022 18:04:45 GMT
Is it safe to get back into VWAHX? Maybe a bit? I don't know if it is safe or wise, but I put a chunk in VWALX yesterday.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2022 18:56:07 GMT
With US10Y (yield) currently rising, munis are facing headwinds.
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Post by Chahta on Dec 23, 2022 19:10:25 GMT
There the traders then there the investors. With all bond funds near 2022 lows, it is buying times for investors. They are similar to CEFs. NAVs can fluctuate but you keep getting that inflated tax-free income. I like them for my taxable account which is best kept low tax. I don’t want dividends or big CGs. I want to harvest CGs.
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Post by sortatino2 on Dec 24, 2022 2:33:15 GMT
Vanguard Municipal MM yield at 3.61% vs VWALX at 4.23%. I am 100% in Vanguard Municipal MM with taxable funds. Looking for the next good entry point for HY Muni (NVHAX, NHMAX) . Seasonality suggests a good entry point coming
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 24, 2022 4:33:25 GMT
Looking at the chart of VWALX and I see the following: Points 1,2,3 were a good entry Point 4(now) shows that VWALX already went down over 1% Do you think it's a good time to buy now, or maybe wait for the next uptrend ? Look at 10 YR treasury. What do you see? rates are going up? Is that good for bonds? You don't need to be a trader for that Attachments:
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comlb
Lieutenant
Posts: 67
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Post by comlb on Dec 28, 2022 16:47:18 GMT
starting point for my muni strategy - only buy munis from the state where i am taxed so to get the federal and state tax benefit
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 29, 2022 3:43:13 GMT
Looking at the chart of VWALX and I see the following: Points 1,2,3 were a good entry Point 4(now) shows that VWALX already went down over 1%Do you think it's a good time to buy now, or maybe wait for the next uptrend ? Look at 10 YR treasury. What do you see? rates are going up? Is that good for bonds? You don't need to be a trader for that I can't "believe" it. The trends continue. HY Munis down + rates are going up. Attachments:
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Post by Chahta on Jan 25, 2023 13:27:31 GMT
I agree that MM is not the place to be for 2023. I have no tax issues today (I will in the future) but it sure is nice to have access to “free” money. IMHO you can pick any bond fund today and do well this year as long as inflation continues down.
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Post by chang on Nov 14, 2023 21:03:44 GMT
Look at VWALX over 3 years. Does it look like it’s bounced off $9.70 twice recently?
I’ve thought about it several times, but not moved in yet. I’ve been in RPHIX and T-bills for a few years now. My feeling has been to wait until rates peak, and that there’s no need to rush in early.
Current VWALX yield is 4.75%, or roughly 6% tax equivalent.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 23:18:00 GMT
I have posted the following in several boards. 1-1-2021: Invest in HY Munis which is what I did Prior to 7-30-2021: I posted that Munis tend to be weak or lose starting in August, and then later I posted that bank loans show momo. I followed the above and made over 11%. If you used decent fund choices, you made 8.5+%. Next: Munis usually start doing well from Nov but as usual, I'm waiting markets to tell me what to do. Watch the charts.Remember: the "experts" told us that bonds will lose money in 2021. I'm OK with just 6%, but I don't mind to make 12% BTW, when I say I own something, there is a good chance I own at least 20% in it but I can own 50+% if I like it, after all, I usually own just 2-3 funds. HY Munis were so good in the last 2-3 years that I also owned them in my IRA. See Nov-Dec for 2021-2-3 below I also posted the buy signal on Nov 1st 2023 ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1959/bond-future-musings?page=8)
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Post by habsui on Nov 14, 2023 23:38:26 GMT
Look at VWALX over 3 years. Does it look like it’s bounced off $9.70 twice recently? I’ve thought about it several times, but not moved in yet. I’ve been in RPHIX and T-bills for a few years now. My feeling has been to wait until rates peak, and that there’s no need to rush in early. Current VWALX yield is 4.75%, or roughly 6% tax equivalent. I have added to VWALX over the last few weeks.
Good investing...
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Post by fishingrod on Nov 15, 2023 1:37:42 GMT
Please don't take my word. But it really looks like it formed a big footprint bottom two weeks ago for now around 9.70. Up 4.5% since then.
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Post by coptomist on Nov 15, 2023 3:47:45 GMT
I started and added to Vwahx at Fidelity over the last few weeks. It represents about 10% of my fixed income holdings at this point. Other fixed holdings include Pipnx, I-bonds, CDs and cash.
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Post by win1177 on Nov 15, 2023 16:55:23 GMT
I’ve been steadily adding to bond positions recently, not a lot at any one time but have our total “bond/ fixed income” positions at about 6% now. This is in addition to cash holdings (money markets), which are at about 8.5%. Still pretty “aggressive” in allocation, but OK with that as our income in early retirement is actually lower than expenditures. So we’re still “accumulating”, even though I retired from a “healthy income” as a physician. So feel we can stay relatively aggressive.
It seems like bond yields have settled down, if anything we may be at the high point on rates (or dropping a little) and FED “may” be done raising rates. So planning on continuing to add stepwise to Bond positions, mainly in muni funds- intermediate and high yield mix.
Win
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Post by fishingrod on Nov 16, 2023 15:18:12 GMT
For reference VWALX 10/26/2022-Price 9.71- SECYld 4.69% 10/31/2023-Price 9.70- SECYld 4.92% 11/15/2023-Price 10.11-SECYld 4.70% Money invested on 10/26/2022 is up 8.26% Half from dividends, half from price appreciation. Did I cherry pick? Of course I did.
Distribution yield as of 10/31/2023= 3.94%
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Post by fishingrod on Nov 16, 2023 19:39:36 GMT
chang , If one is investing only for income with the bond side of things then individual munis laddered may suit you better than investing with bond funds. You would be holding everything to maturity so you would give up potential capital gains unless you buy at discount, but also capital losses unless you buy at premium, barring any defaults. Your portfolio of laddered bonds would still fluctuate with the market but each holding would have a defined maturity. One can find 4.75%+ in different maturities right now pretty easily. A portfolio of individual bonds may take some of the fear and hesitation away from the muni bond side of things. You would have to figure out where to reinvest the interest payments though. This is the type of bond market where investors can make concessions and be satisfied with what they get. Could it get better? Of course. Worse? Yes, That is why you ladder.
Come on in. The water's fine.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 16, 2023 23:03:17 GMT
There is a lot more money to make from appreciation.
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Post by fishingrod on Nov 16, 2023 23:11:09 GMT
There is a lot more money to make from appreciation. Only if interest rates go downward or people turn towards the dark side.
Yield to maturity on VWALX is 5.29%(10/31/2023)
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Post by anovice on Nov 17, 2023 11:12:38 GMT
There is a lot more money to make from appreciation. Only if interest rates go downward or people turn towards the dark side.
Yield to maturity on VWALX is 5.29%(10/31/2023)
fishingrod, What do you mean by "...or people turn to the dark side"? Thank you.
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Post by fishingrod on Nov 17, 2023 12:06:35 GMT
anovice , I just meant if more people start crowding into intermediate or longs bonds and out of money market funds in anticipation of the FED lowering interest rates. I should have explained myself.
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Post by chang on Nov 17, 2023 14:45:53 GMT
There is a lot more money to make from appreciation. If one is a good trader, and is good at buying low and selling high (-> “Appreciation”), why on earth would they deal in bonds, or bond funds, or open end bond funds? That’s the biggest waste of trading skills imaginable. Sorry, but to coin the phrase that someone at M* used to say, that’s racing Yugos. Trade stocks, or CEFs, or options, or … *anything* other than bond fund OEFs.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 17, 2023 15:09:42 GMT
There is a lot more money to make from appreciation. If one is a good trader, and is good at buying low and selling high (-> “Appreciation”), why on earth would they deal in bonds, or bond funds, or open end bond funds? That’s the biggest waste of trading skills imaginable. Sorry, but to coin the phrase that someone at M* used to say, that’s racing Yugos. Trade stocks, or CEFs, or options, or … *anything* other than bond fund OEFs. Because volatility is extremely important for me + my T/A works a lot better with slow moving stuff + bond fund gives more time to sell in very bad markets. Why would I want 1+% stock volatility while my portfolio moves +-0.2(usually up) most days and I have made over 10% annually since 2018 with SD<3? We are talking about close to 6 years. Even if you guarantee me 13% with SD=16-18 vs 8-9% with SD<3, I will take the second option because we have more than enough. Real life example: I sold 90+ on 2-29-2020 and several days later the rest( www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2). I held 2 funds NHMAX,IOFIX. You can see that both made money until 2-29-2020. In the last week of Feb the SP500 lost over 10%. See the chart below. Volatility isn't guaranteed either, a fund like IOFIX can have low volatility for years and then very high volatility when market changes. Lastly, volatility is a guarantee, performance isn't. The last several years are more normal with higher volatility. richardsok wrote a good T/A book. I predicted that most would not pay attention. Attachments:
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