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Post by FD1000 on Nov 1, 2023 22:31:40 GMT
The usual stuff, when the Fed talks I listen, the rest depends on the big picture + uptrend. I was out from 01/2022 to early 11/2022.. During that time only trades were allowed which I did using only HY Muni. Since I realized that the environment for bonds is still not easy for most bonds funds I continue to pay close attention. I traded Munis until may. I also posted for years (and this year too) that Bank Loans are a good category for rising rates, but they are not my favorite category. I was happy to find only limited number of funds with uptrends + low SD which I have been using for several months now. I have been saying it since 03/2022 NOT to buy treasury funds. I said it about VGSH vs MM chart( schrts.co/sTrYkTcU) + ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/2131/2023-more-sense?page=2) I also said it for longer term. Until the Fed is not done, no treasuries or high-rated bonds. I even posted my ST indicator. What does the above mean? if you hold high-rated bond funds your portfolio got crushed in 2022 and continue to be lower YTD. This includes funds like VWIAX. BTW, most of the above has been posted...but hey, it's all in hindsight. Did you catch the buy T/A buy signal for several funds, and it wasn't the first day?
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 11, 2023 14:48:25 GMT
The usual stuff, when the Fed talks I listen, the rest depends on the big picture + uptrend. I was out from 01/2022 to early 11/2022.. During that time only trades were allowed which I did using only HY Muni. Since I realized that the environment for bonds is still not easy for most bonds funds I continue to pay close attention. I traded Munis until may. I also posted for years (and this year too) that Bank Loans are a good category for rising rates, but they are not my favorite category. I was happy to find only limited number of funds with uptrends + low SD which I have been using for several months now. I have been saying it since 03/2022 NOT to buy treasury funds. I said it about VGSH vs MM chart( schrts.co/sTrYkTcU) + ( big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/2131/2023-more-sense?page=2) I also said it for longer term. Until the Fed is not done, no treasuries or high-rated bonds. I even posted my ST indicator. What does the above mean? if you hold high-rated bond funds your portfolio got crushed in 2022 and continue to be lower YTD. This includes funds like VWIAX. BTW, most of the above has been posted...but hey, it's all in hindsight. Did you catch the buy T/A buy signal for several funds, and it wasn't the first day? So, did you catch the T/A signal? I did. I already sold on Thursday. This was another hindsight.
1) I switched 80% of my portfolio to HY Munis when I saw the signal. Was this a surprise? no, I have been posting about this category for years and especially since early 2022. Let's USE ORNAX for this example. 2) I told you about the 3 line break for a couple of years. No, it's not 100% accurate, nothing is, but its damn good and why I use it + other stuff for more accuracy. 3) ORNAX signaled on Nov 2nd( schrts.co/vbfKtshu), but in this case many categories are highly correlated more than other times. Treasuries are the most sensitive to rates. IEI(3-7 years) signaled already in 10/27 ( schrts.co/kjczTkxS), the longer-term TLT signaled on 10/24. Do I usually look at treasuries? no, but I did this time. It's all about flexibility, understanding markets and looking at the big picture. This time was different because we are in inflection point, the Fed stayed put twice. On Wed Nov 1st, the Fed blinked. I don't care what 100 experts said or written anywhere, in my world the Fed blinked. Powell was not as hawkish as before. I don't have an idea how long he blinked. All I know is how to make money when I see MY signs. Let's make it even easier. Longer term T/A for ORNAX signaled on Oct 30-31. LT = a better and stronger signal than the ST and when both signaled it = the bomb. 4) In just several days ORNAX made 4%, VOO/SPY made 4.25%. See ( schrts.co/IYabHeYP). Let's look at ORNAX since 1/1/2022 and see how easy it was to make money. The chart is below shows it all. I played between HY Muni and MM from 01/2022 to 05/2023. On May 2023 I was in until now because IMO it's been better for bonds and I found 2 great bond funds that I owned several months and I'm back to them. HY Muni made at least 2.5-3% every time if you watch the chart. In 11/2022, it was the strongest momo, it makes sense after losing so much and why I stayed several weeks, while I stayed only several days in all others. ORNAX shows you why I made 9.7% in 2022 and YTD I'm in double digits. ( schrts.co/kksezAhd) 5) The last 2 years have been pretty difficult. In my world they were easier, volatility is my friend, the higher it is, the easier it is to trade. 6) So, why did I sell? because its still not a "normal" bond market. Pay attention, another tip coming. I also watch indexes that trade during the day which give me more clues. HYD is HY Muni index, on Nov 9th, HYD went down, but ORNAX was up that day, traders are sometime front run what will happen later, since I made money, I sold. Attachments:
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Post by howaya on Nov 11, 2023 22:13:15 GMT
Sure, but if one doesn't like to invest with signals for short term trades ORNAX becomes a really bad choice. Most movement in the first chart, above, shows ORNAX going down!
Year-to-date, over one year, or even five years, SPHY did much better than ORNAX.
And if one wanted to consider cap app + yield over those two periods PHK did better than ORNAX, too.
If someone can post the chart of these three high-yield choices (I cannot) we all will see the results.
Isn't it fair to believe most investors (and most of the 331 investors on this forum) aren't involved in short term trading or playing with volatility for many good reasons? My musing is that what a few here do with their short term trades is fairly esoteric - even if it involves some sort of "system", "proprietary" or otherwise. I guess the proprietary systems are great for the respective individual but useless for sharing with a group (ego-massaging notwithstanding).
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Post by roi2020 on Nov 11, 2023 23:00:16 GMT
SPHY provided higher returns with a lower max drawdown than ORNAX over the trailing 1 yr, 3 yr, and 5 yr periods. ORNAX generated higher returns over the trailing 10 yr period and since July 2012. The annualized returns for PHK lagged the other two funds over all periods (except 3 yr) and PHK exhibited much greater volatility. www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2j74B0ptFLEvAeTxiLkcDP
Investors who mainly buy and hold can ignore most trading strategy commentaries since these strategies are irrelevant to their own investment plans. With that said, it can be difficult to simply ignore ubiquitous claims regarding "proprietary trading systems" which have been discussed ad nauseam.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2023 5:02:40 GMT
Sure, but if one doesn't like to invest with signals for short term trades ORNAX becomes a really bad choice. Most movement in the first chart, above, shows ORNAX going down! Year-to-date, over one year, or even five years, SPHY did much better than ORNAX. And if one wanted to consider cap app + yield over those two periods PHK did better than ORNAX, too. If someone can post the chart of these three high-yield choices (I cannot) we all will see the results. Isn't it fair to believe most investors (and most of the 331 investors on this forum) aren't involved in short term trading or playing with volatility for many good reasons? My musing is that what a few here do with their short term trades is fairly esoteric - even if it involves some sort of "system", "proprietary" or otherwise. I guess the proprietary systems are great for the respective individual but useless for sharing with a group (ego-massaging notwithstanding). fair enough and why I have said many, many times, I'm a trader and never follow my advice. It matches my style. But, on the other hand I have posted many years what someone else can do with longer hold times. For more than 10 years I recommended PRWCX and still loves it. I posted why I owned PIMIX for straight 7 years, why I like LC tilting growth since 2010, and more. There are things that last for years. We are all different, some hold for years, some trade only 20%, some hold mostly CEFs, stocks, or bonds. The idea is to discuss all matters and let posters do their own DD and invest according to their style and goals. My biggest problem over many years of posting is that successful timing can't be done. I know several who have been doing it for years. IMO, successful timing = FREE lunch = better risk/reward = better Sharpe ratio without sacrificing performance too much = pretty much the only way to measure success, no matters the goals.
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Post by habsui on Nov 12, 2023 5:21:04 GMT
"... I'm a trader and never follow my advice ..."
+1
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 12, 2023 14:25:32 GMT
howaya said: Sure, but if one doesn't like to invest with signals for short term trades ORNAX becomes a really bad choice. Most movement in the first chart, above, shows ORNAX going down! Year-to-date, over one year, or even five years, SPHY did much better than ORNAX. FD: buy and hold sounds good on paper. In the last 3,5 years most typical bond funds had a terrible performance with much higher volatility see below 3/5 year average annual performance. Higher-rate bonds...VBTLX=BND(index)=-4.9/0.4...DODIX -3.3/2.6 Munis: MUNI -1.3/1.6. HY Muni: HYD 1.1/-3%...ORNAX 4.3/-1.3 Multi...PIMIX, one of the best risk/reward ever in 2010-2018 did only 0.2/2.5...RCTIX 2.4/4.6 HY: SPHY=1.4/3.9 Bank loan: BKLN=3.8/3.2...EIFAX=5.1/3.9 Basically most typical funds = high-rated funds and even multi fell below inflation. Total inflation in the last 5 years was about 22%, see ( www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm). Only HY with much higher correlation to stocks did better, SPHY made 21.3% in 5 years while BKLN made just 15.5. BND made only a total of 2.5%. VWIAX 40/60=21.85 chart( schrts.co/kvMBaEsE) Conclusion: trading made me a lot more than buy and hold. The next 5 years would be better, are typical bond funds would make 3% above inflation, I doubt it. If I had to select bond funds for years to come I would try RSIIX,RCTIX before I use indexes. I definitely would not use HY.
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Post by teapot on Nov 13, 2023 5:43:46 GMT
Conclusion: trading made me a lot more than buy and hold. The next 5 years would be better, are typical bond funds would make 3% above inflation, I doubt it. If I had to select bond funds for years to come I would try RSIIX,RCTIX before I use indexes. I definitely would not use HY. But RSIIX is in MS high yield category
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 13, 2023 15:13:25 GMT
Conclusion: trading made me a lot more than buy and hold. The next 5 years would be better, are typical bond funds would make 3% above inflation, I doubt it. If I had to select bond funds for years to come I would try RSIIX,RCTIX before I use indexes. I definitely would not use HY. But RSIIX is in MS high yield category RSIIX/RSIVX isn't your typical HY. see below Attachments:
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Post by teapot on Nov 13, 2023 17:25:46 GMT
But RSIIX is in MS high yield category RSIIX/RSIVX isn't your typical HY. see below Why not RPHIX/RPHYX? If you compare RPHIX, RSIIX against S&P in PV backtest from Jan 2014, risk reward seems worse than RPHIX and may not better than SP500 (It has some longer underwater period for drawdown than sp500) Sharp Sortino RSIIX 0.51 0.62 RPHIX 1.88 3.12 sp500 0.67 1.02
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 13, 2023 20:54:32 GMT
RSIIX/RSIVX isn't your typical HY. see below Why not RPHIX/RPHYX? If you compare RPHIX, RSIIX against S&P in PV backtest from Jan 2014, risk reward seems worse than RPHIX and may not better than SP500 (It has some longer underwater period for drawdown than sp500) Sharp Sortino RSIIX 0.51 0.62 RPHIX 1.88 3.12 sp500 0.67 1.02 The usual mistake that many have done. The past can tell you a lot about a specific fund risk/reward. Typically when rates go down or market stabilize, LT duration funds make more. RPHIX has been great when markets collapse, see 03/2020. It lost less than 3%, NHMAX lost over 20 and IOFIX over 50%. Question: when markets turn around which fund probably would do better? The reverse likely to happen. From the first week of 04/2020 to 12/2020? RPHIX made 2.9%...NHMAX over 19%...and IOFIX made over 40%. You are looking for one bond fund to do it all, and you should as a typical investor. Not me. Sometimes even typical investors should read markets when it's easier. In 02/2020 the world infected with Covid-19 and million died I sold everything. In 2020, inflation goes up very quickly, The Fed promised to raise rates rapidly, we had a war, supply chain problems = I sold everything again. That's what a good trader does which I did in both periods. I sold before over 99% and bought 99+% after the rebound started. In the last 2 weeks I traded HY Munis for 8 days, how much RPHIX did? 0.3%. How much good HY Munis made? 4+%. Is IOFIX a good fund in the last 5 years? Horrible, it lost 20+% but it made me a lot of money. Lastly, RSIIX would PROBABLY make more money than RPHIX in the next several years, but it's a not a guarantee. I learned since 2018 that even bond funds are not reliable. Attachments:
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Post by chang on Nov 13, 2023 21:20:34 GMT
Why not RPHIX/RPHYX? If you compare RPHIX, RSIIX against S&P in PV backtest from Jan 2014, risk reward seems worse than RPHIX and may not better than SP500 (It has some longer underwater period for drawdown than sp500) Sharp Sortino RSIIX 0.51 0.62 RPHIX 1.88 3.12 sp500 0.67 1.02 The usual mistake that many have done. The past can tell you a lot about a specific fund risk/reward. Typically when rates go down or market stabilize, LT duration funds make more. RPHIX has been great when markets collapse, see 03/2020. It lost less than 3%, NHMAX lost over 20 and IOFIX over 50%. Question: when markets turn around which fund probably would do better? The reverse likely to happen. From the first week of 04/2020 to 12/2020? RPHIX made 2.9%...NHMAX over 19%...and IOFIX made over 40%. You are looking for one bond fund to do it all, and you should as a typical investor. Not me. Sometimes even typical investors should read markets when it's easier. In 02/2020 the world infected with Covid-19 and million died I sold everything. In 2020, inflation goes up very quickly, The Fed promised to raise rates rapidly, we had a war, supply chain problems = I sold everything again. That's what a good trader does which I did in both periods. I sold before over 99% and bought 99+% after the rebound started. In the last 2 weeks I traded HY Munis for 8 days, how much RPHIX did? 0.3%. How much good HY Munis made? 4+%. Is IOFIX a good fund in the last 5 years? Horrible, it lost 20+% but it made me a lot of money. Lastly, RSIIX would PROBABLY make more money than RPHIX in the next several years, but it's a not a guarantee. I learned since 2018 that even bond funds are not reliable. IOFIX is too boring. ROM is up >100% YTD, and FNGU is up almost 350%. IOFIX is a Yugo by comparison.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 13, 2023 21:26:39 GMT
These are probably not bonds and their down volatility is in the sky. TESLA made 700% in one year.
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Post by anitya on Nov 13, 2023 22:21:53 GMT
I think chang 's point is if you keep telling posters about your trading prowess and how you are in and out of funds in a week ("traded HY Munis for 8 days") and how the posters not doing the same is what is consigning them to their fate, why not trade ROM or TQQQ a week at a time and make a lot more money. We have traders in this forum who trade TQQQ (perhaps, more volatile than ROM) and post their trades in real time and so chang 's comment is very relevant. He is not talking about individual stocks, he too is talking about funds. If you bought ROM and IOFIX (the fund you traded) five years ago and held, you lost plenty of money in IOFIX and made more than 250% in ROM. You can also trade ROM and make more than trading IOFIX. I am with chang that if one is going to repeatedly post about their trading skills and methods, one needs to post their trades in real time.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 13, 2023 22:32:42 GMT
I think chang 's point is if you keep telling posters about your trading prowess and how you are in and out of funds in a week ("traded HY Munis for 8 days") and how the posters not doing the same is what is consigning them to their fate, why not trade ROM or TQQQ a week at a time and make a lot more money. We have traders in this forum who trade TQQQ (perhaps, more volatile than ROM) and post their trades in real time and so chang 's comment is very relevant. He is not talking about individual stocks, he too is talking about funds. If you bought ROM and IOFIX (the fund you traded) five years ago and held, you lost plenty of money in IOFIX and made more than 250% in ROM. You can also trade ROM and make more than trading IOFIX. I am with chang that if one is going to repeatedly post about their trading skills and methods, one needs to post their trades in real time. 1) I play markets as they presented themselves. I can trade something for hours-days, weeks, or months. Before the last trade, I held for about 6 months. 2) My T/A works much better with slow moving bond funds, and very low volatility, which I posted about many times, why would I trade leveraged stuff for months? 3) My last trades were pretty much in real-time. I posted on Nov 1st on both threads (Bond future musings + 2023-makes more-sense) why it was a great time to buy stocks+bonds. Then I posted that I sold.
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Post by Chahta on Nov 14, 2023 18:23:48 GMT
I think chang 's point is if you keep telling posters about your trading prowess and how you are in and out of funds in a week ("traded HY Munis for 8 days") and how the posters not doing the same is what is consigning them to their fate, why not trade ROM or TQQQ a week at a time and make a lot more money. We have traders in this forum who trade TQQQ (perhaps, more volatile than ROM) and post their trades in real time and so chang 's comment is very relevant. He is not talking about individual stocks, he too is talking about funds. If you bought ROM and IOFIX (the fund you traded) five years ago and held, you lost plenty of money in IOFIX and made more than 250% in ROM. You can also trade ROM and make more than trading IOFIX. I am with chang that if one is going to repeatedly post about their trading skills and methods, one needs to post their trades in real time. 1) I play markets as they presented themselves. I can trade something for hours-days, weeks, or months. Before the last trade, I held for about 6 months. 2) My T/A works much better with slow moving bond funds, and very low volatility, which I posted about many times, why would I trade leveraged stuff for months? 3) My last trades were pretty much in real-time. I posted on Nov 1st on both threads (Bond future musings + 2023-makes more-sense) why it was a great time to buy stocks+bonds. Then I posted that I sold. NHMAX is still going up. No sell signal that I can see. Especially today.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 14, 2023 20:34:39 GMT
+1 Keep holding
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Post by mnfish on Nov 17, 2023 14:20:10 GMT
When does it make sense to buy a 1yr CD paying 5.3% vs leaving it in a MM currently paying 5.3%? The market certainly seems to believe that rate cuts will happen in 2024.
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Post by yakers on Nov 17, 2023 16:20:04 GMT
When does it make sense to buy a 1yr CD paying 5.3% vs leaving it in a MM currently paying 5.3%? The market certainly seems to believe that rate cuts will happen in 2024. Even though I could live with a 1 yr (or even 2 yr) CD I ealy like the flexibility of a MM fund, I just hold cash there waiting for something to buy. Not trying to get the last pennies out of cash.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 17, 2023 21:44:12 GMT
When does it make sense to buy a 1yr CD paying 5.3% vs leaving it in a MM currently paying 5.3%? The market certainly seems to believe that rate cuts will happen in 2024. Even though I could live with a 1 yr (or even 2 yr) CD I ealy like the flexibility of a MM fund, I just hold cash there waiting for something to buy. Not trying to get the last pennies out of cash. +1I have posted about the above at least dozen times since early 2022. If I'm out I use MM, the bird in the had and have the ability/flexibility to trade and WHAT I HAVE DONE SINCE EARLY 2022. MM proved to be the right choice so far vs shorter-time CD/treasuries because the Fed fund rate has been rising and MM distribution kept going up. I also said that it is more reasonable to lock up CD rates for 3-5 years at 5.5-5.6%, see ( fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding). In my world locking something isn't good enough because one good trade can generate me 2.5-3%. The above discussion has been going on now for at least 1.5 years. Bottom line: most investors who buy CD/treasury never think about trading, even if they can make 2-3% in one week because it's a hassle to trade them.
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Post by steadyeddy on Nov 18, 2023 1:11:08 GMT
Even though I could live with a 1 yr (or even 2 yr) CD I ealy like the flexibility of a MM fund, I just hold cash there waiting for something to buy. Not trying to get the last pennies out of cash. +1I have posted about the above at least dozen times since early 2022. If I'm out I use MM, the bird in the had and have the ability/flexibility to trade and WHAT I HAVE DONE SINCE EARLY 2022. MM proved to be the right choice so far vs shorter-time CD/treasuries because the Fed fund rate has been rising and MM distribution kept going up. I also said that it is more reasonable to lock up CD rates for 3-5 years at 5.5-5.6%, see ( fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding). In my world locking something isn't good enough because one good trade can generate me 2.5-3%. The above discussion has been going on now for at least 1.5 years. Bottom line: most investors who buy CD/treasury never think about trading, even if they can make 2-3% in one week because it's a hassle to trade them. I completely agree. It is important to have dry powder waiting in MM funds - CDs are not dry powder.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 18, 2023 4:32:08 GMT
steadyeddy , Most times I don't have dry powder, it only happened for months in 2022. YTD, it happened until May. Since May, I was in 2 bond funds until I switched 80% to HY Munis and then back to the same funds. These 2 funds made me a lot more than MM. From 2013 until early 2022, I was in MM 6 times. 3 times about 3-4 weeks when the SP500 was down 20 or more % and 3 times I was "wrong" and was out only 3-4 days. Basically, 2022 was such a big event for the markets and I'm still on the edge because we are coming to a period of uncertainty for inflation, rates, recession, unemployment and more. The Fed is watching the data and prefer to wait longer on rates just to be sure+.
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Post by mozart522 on Nov 18, 2023 13:38:25 GMT
For me, putting money in a CD at the same rate as MM is not something I would do. If the FED raises one more time, I'm better off. If the FED begins to cut, both bonds and stocks historically will do well and I will move. I remember buying a 5 year CD in 1982 at 11%. Inflation was in the 6% range, but the FED funds rate was still high. I was making good money then. This is not then.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 18, 2023 14:13:58 GMT
For me, putting money in a CD at the same rate as MM is not something I would do. If the FED raises one more time, I'm better off. If the FED begins to cut, both bonds and stocks historically will do well and I will move. I remember buying a 5 year CD in 1982 at 11%. Inflation was in the 6% range, but the FED funds rate was still high. I was making good money then. This is not then. +1 Rates rising = MM + ST bond trading Rates cuts = Bonds will make more than CD Actually, the Fed may blinked already and why the 10 YR TR is already at 4.5% but there is no way to be sure right now.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 18, 2023 14:44:16 GMT
YTD, several good risk/reward funds that we have been discussing for months. Bank loans continue to do well: FAFRX=12.8...EIFAX=11.6 RSIIX=7.4 RPHIX=4.9 and better than MM Attachments:
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Post by teapot on Nov 19, 2023 4:38:47 GMT
FD1000, Thanks for the clarification on your trading criteria. How much time do you spend each week to monitor market to identify bond OEF trading opportunity? How do you deal with mutual fund minimum hold time?
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Post by mnfish on Nov 19, 2023 13:29:14 GMT
I haven't had a MM fund for years, My current one, FGTXX, has a 2.3% cap gain. Is it unusual to have a cap gain in a MM fund? If so, would you sell it to collect the gain and then re-purchase it?
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Post by chang on Nov 19, 2023 14:18:38 GMT
I haven't had a MM fund for years, My current one, FGTXX, has a 2.3% cap gain. Is it unusual to have a cap gain in a MM fund? If so, would you sell it to collect the gain and then re-purchase it? If the NAV is $1 constant, I don’t see how you can have a CG. But if you did, I wouldn’t sell and rebuy, unless you expect tax rates to go up in the future.
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Post by richardsok on Nov 19, 2023 14:44:00 GMT
I haven't had a MM fund for years, My current one, FGTXX, has a 2.3% cap gain. Is it unusual to have a cap gain in a MM fund? If so, would you sell it to collect the gain and then re-purchase it? If the NAV is $1 constant, I don’t see how you can have a CG. But if you did, I wouldn’t sell and rebuy, unless you expect tax rates to go up in the future. But what if found another fund he thought would do much better than the MM? It's tricky, I think, to make investment decisions solely on their tax effect.
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Post by FD1000 on Nov 19, 2023 14:57:53 GMT
FD1000 , Thanks for the clarification on your trading criteria. How much time do you spend each week to monitor market to identify bond OEF trading opportunity? How do you deal with mutual fund minimum hold time? Read ( fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/25/putting-all) =============== I usually don't trade base on taxes. The one exception I did several times in the past is when I purchase a fund, owned it several months, and it has a huge CG. If I want to continue owning it, I would sell it and buy a similar fund or an ETF, then sell the new fund and buy the first fund again.
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