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Gold
Aug 24, 2022 20:45:26 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Aug 24, 2022 20:45:26 GMT
The Bullish % of Gold Miners is a sentiment indicator that gives a contrary signal when it runs to extremes such as it is doing now. It is not very useful for timing because it can remain negative or positive for a long time. Currently it has been extremely negative for nearly 2 months. That signal along with all the double bottoms that have formed recently are telling me a sharp advance in the price of precious metals is at hand. I have a position in NEM and in NUGT. There are many other ETF's and stocks to choose from. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p77089163295&a=424713375&listNum=86
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2022 21:03:19 GMT
I hold AEM, GOLD, and NEM
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Gold
Aug 26, 2022 15:33:34 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Aug 26, 2022 15:33:34 GMT
The whales continue to roil the gold market. Qatar reportedly made a huge purchase and judging from todays market others are continuing their activities. I have chosen to ride out the volatility until I have some specific guidance.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2022 17:23:23 GMT
My holdings will be long term diversifiers. I may add at the end of the day.
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Gold
Aug 26, 2022 18:37:03 GMT
Post by richardsok on Aug 26, 2022 18:37:03 GMT
If I were going to buy anything gold-ish it would be GNT b/c its mix of energy assets with prec metals seems to greatly calm volatility. Or as I used to do, buy a couple of coins every month and deposit them in my daughter's bank box. (They're still there, along with my 10kt high school ring and my dad's cigar-cutter, etc.) I have gone spec'latin' to the gold well many times over the past forty years -- and it's uncanny .... EVERY TIME worked out to loss.
No mo' 'til I see return of Haley's Comet.
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Gold
Aug 26, 2022 20:20:38 GMT
Post by bb2 on Aug 26, 2022 20:20:38 GMT
I've not had luck with gold either, just watching but I'm thinking it might have a place here. Today didn't support that view however.
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Gold
Aug 27, 2022 13:29:36 GMT
Post by win1177 on Aug 27, 2022 13:29:36 GMT
My holdings will be long term diversifiers. I may add at the end of the day. I added to Newmont Corp. (NEM) today at close to a low. Planning on it being a long term hold, but so far it has been a loser for me. Win
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Gold
Aug 27, 2022 13:57:48 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Aug 27, 2022 13:57:48 GMT
Barron's has another bullish/supportive take on gold this week (see Part 1/Commodities). One of these days, Barron's may be right .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2022 15:09:54 GMT
Win - Newmont is a good company at a very good price. This week you might be down. I doubt that will be the case 3 to 5 years from now. It is a prudent diversifier for the type of portfolio we both hold. I am a little over 1% in gold miners. I have no concerns. From a technical standpoint - we have some pretty smart folks making positive comments on gold.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 29, 2022 23:09:18 GMT
Benzinga is reporting some whale activity in NEM options today with 22 trades that are uncommon for NEM. There is no way to tell if this is an institution or a wealthy individual doing the trades but the activity indicates that there will be an event soon that is not widely known which will affect the stock price. The trades indicate that there is a 54%/45% split between bullish and bearish. This report is consistent with earlier reports of large investor activity in the precious metals markets.
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Post by uncleharley on Aug 31, 2022 16:23:18 GMT
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Post by richardsok on Aug 31, 2022 16:38:07 GMT
H --
Like many others, I've been following yr trades for some time. You've certainly done well overall, but I am curious about your evident determination re gold. Specifically why you place limited buy orders, which you hit and then gold continues dropping. Anyway, that's my impression of what has been happening. My question: Why aren't you waiting for the market to come to you? -- simply waiting and watching for some kind of support to form, buy near the support price (where ever that is) and put in your stop loss just slightly below that? I'm watching PMs too, in the somewhat diversified forms of GOAU, GLTR, GGN,GLDI and GNT -- and still see no buys in sight. Not meant as a criticism, just as a talking point.
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Gold
Aug 31, 2022 18:05:33 GMT
Post by win1177 on Aug 31, 2022 18:05:33 GMT
H --
Like many others, I've been following yr trades for some time. You've certainly done well overall, but I am curious about your evident determination re gold. Specifically why you place limited buy orders, which you hit and then gold continues dropping. Anyway, that's my impression of what has been happening. My question: Why aren't you waiting for the market to come to you? -- simply waiting and watching for some kind of support to form, buy near the support price (where ever that is) and put in your stop loss just slightly below that? I'm watching PMs too, in the somewhat diversified forms of GOAU, GLTR, GGN,GLDI and GNT -- and still see no buys in sight. Not meant as a criticism, just as a talking point. Uncle Harley, I also have been watching you regarding gold/ PM. I have a sizable position in Newmont, and have been hoping gold has hit bottom or building a base. So far, just seems to be slowly drifting down. I’m also curious what leads you to say it may be forming a bottom? Win
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Gold
Aug 31, 2022 18:27:47 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Aug 31, 2022 18:27:47 GMT
H --
Like many others, I've been following yr trades for some time. You've certainly done well overall, but I am curious about your evident determination re gold. Specifically why you place limited buy orders, which you hit and then gold continues dropping. Anyway, that's my impression of what has been happening. My question: Why aren't you waiting for the market to come to you? -- simply waiting and watching for some kind of support to form, buy near the support price (where ever that is) and put in your stop loss just slightly below that? I'm watching PMs too, in the somewhat diversified forms of GOAU, GLTR, GGN,GLDI and GNT -- and still see no buys in sight. Not meant as a criticism, just as a talking point. Good question, In early August I did have a buy signal. Gold formed a dbl bottom at 1678 in mid july and the price moved up until mid august. MACD and RSI were bullish and the price had moved above a band of resistance. Trading volume was lacking, but I took a chance & it failed. Sometimes that happens. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p41577461936&a=414745197&listNum=86I should also note that the bullish percent indicator is a sentiment indicator and should not be used for timing. It can be used to confirm the signal of another indicator but by itself it can stay bullish or bearish for a very long time. Uncle Harley, I also have been watching you regarding gold/ PM. I have a sizable position in Newmont, and have been hoping gold has hit bottom or building a base. So far, just seems to be slowly drifting down. I’m also curious what leads you to say it may be forming a bottom? Win
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 2, 2022 17:24:52 GMT
win1177, The weekly chart for gold has been in a consolidation pattern for about 2 yrs. It has to break out sometime. The global sanctions against Russia have made the USD less attractive as a reserve currency for many countries. Gold is an obvious alternative. The recent action by the G-7countries to place a limit on the price of Russian oil should accelerate that unattractiveness.
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Gold
Sept 5, 2022 14:47:54 GMT
Post by richardsok on Sept 5, 2022 14:47:54 GMT
Discounting the wild Covid-spike of early 2020, the current gold:silver ratio is returning to its all-time highs. (Silver very low in its historical relation to gold.) This invites a possible arbitrage play of buying silver and selling gold, or possibly just buying silver calls while selling OTM silver puts. Silver put premia appear quite generous at the moment.
On another topic, let me express my unhappiness at seeing another of my posts yanked.
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Gold
Sept 5, 2022 16:22:21 GMT
Post by chang on Sept 5, 2022 16:22:21 GMT
On another topic, let me express my unhappiness at seeing another of my posts yanked. What post was yanked? There was a series of obviously provocative/political/OT posts in the thread "This is just plain sad for retirement", which were removed about a week ago. But I don't believe you posted there. Prior to that, I see some flagging activity, but no actions were taken. (You are involved there, but there was no moderation.) Pls check my last PM to you, where I explained why I am extremely reticent to censor anything here. Feel free to PM me on any issue; as you see I sent you a very comprehensive reply in the last instance.
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Gold
Sept 5, 2022 17:47:23 GMT
chang likes this
Post by richardsok on Sept 5, 2022 17:47:23 GMT
On another topic, let me express my unhappiness at seeing another of my posts yanked. What post was yanked? There was a series of obviously provocative/political/OT posts in the thread "This is just plain sad for retirement", which were removed about a week ago. But I don't believe you posted there. Prior to that, I see some flagging activity, but no actions were taken. (You are involved there, but there was no moderation.) Pls check my last PM to you, where I explained why I am extremely reticent to censor anything here. Feel free to PM me on any issue; as you see I sent you a very comprehensive reply in the last instance. Thanks for response, chang. Fair enough. Kindly disregard my previous message with my regrets.
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Gold
Sept 30, 2022 20:49:16 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Sept 30, 2022 20:49:16 GMT
The Precious metals indexes, XAU & HUI both had bullish engulfing candles for this week. The BPGDM indicator has turned up from a level that normally precedes a sharp run up. My NUGT made a breakout advance also. Everything I watch is pointing to a sharp advance in the precious metals sector.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2022 10:26:22 GMT
My three gold miners - AEM, GOLD and NEM seem to be holding up well. I will continue to keep a little gold in my portfolio long term and keep reinvesting dividends til retirement.
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Gold
Oct 4, 2022 20:43:36 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Oct 4, 2022 20:43:36 GMT
FWIW; The BPDM indicator is now trending up from a very low level. Indicators are beginning to signal the start of a substantial rally in the precious metals and associated stocks, especially silver.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 6, 2022 20:36:00 GMT
The BPGM indicator is continuing its budding rally and the miners are moving up in spite of a strong move up by the USD. These kinds of signals usually indicate the beginning of a sustained bull market in the miners.
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Gold
Oct 10, 2022 12:16:38 GMT
via mobile
Post by chang on Oct 10, 2022 12:16:38 GMT
My three gold miners - AEM, GOLD and NEM seem to be holding up well. I will continue to keep a little gold in my portfolio long term and keep reinvesting dividends til retirement. I just made a quick review of my only miner, Rio Tinto. Looks like it’s putting in a real bottom (although, of course, who the bell knows), and I’m collecting a healthy div. I compared the chart to BHP, Anglo American, and Newmont, and I’m reasonably satisfied that RIO is as good or better than its peers. And the dividend!
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Deleted
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Gold
Oct 10, 2022 15:10:42 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2022 15:10:42 GMT
chang, The reason I am in the three I am in is as a proxy for gold. Miners can be a bit scary and I am not going too deep into them. I had my clock cleaned with BHP years ago. I forget if I owned RIO too, but think it might have been just BHP. There was a horrible accident that took years to recover from and a dividend cut. The three I have are tied pretty much to the price of gold which makes them easier to analyze for me. I hope to have them forever as a diversifier. RIO's financials look good at a quick glance.
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Gold
Nov 4, 2022 20:40:16 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 4, 2022 20:40:16 GMT
It has been an interesting week for the metals. Silver is up 8.55% versus gold up 1.93%. Silver seems to be acting more like copper which advanced 7.51 % for the week. The activity and other headlines makes me think that the defense sector might be restocking some high end electronic stuff like missile & drone guidance systems. They both blow up a lot of silver and copper when they are fired.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 5, 2022 1:07:14 GMT
Jeez...I was out today and missed it. SLV up like a rocket! We'll see if it gets throught the past price ceiling. BTW outside my breakfast window (three at eight foot tall each) in Florida I watch spacex rockets go off at about a rate of 1 per week. Recent night time launch was excellent. Ah uncleharley, if I were a trader I'd be a millionaire. Since I am mostly a buy-and-holder, I am a multi-millionaire! R48
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Gold
Nov 5, 2022 1:16:44 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 5, 2022 1:16:44 GMT
That is a lot of high tech going into space. The USD sold off today for reasons I do not have a grip on. The selloff put a tailwind behind a lot of commodities as evidenced by the surge in the CRB index. The CRB broke above trend and above 2 recent highs. It looks like a budding rally in commodities. MJ is a commodity isn't it?
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Gold
Nov 5, 2022 3:54:12 GMT
Post by FD1000 on Nov 5, 2022 3:54:12 GMT
Jeez...I was out today and missed it. SLV up like a rocket! We'll see if it gets throught the past price ceiling. BTW outside my breakfast window (three at eight foot tall each) in Florida I watch spacex rockets go off at about a rate of 1 per week. Recent night time launch was excellent. Ah uncleharley, if I were a trader I'd be a millionaire. Since I am mostly a buy-and-holder, I am a multi-millionaire! R48 Me? just the opposite because 1) Missing the worse days is much better than the best days( link). In my case missing most bad days but invested most best days by being 90/10 in/out 2) Diversification = lower performance + sometimes higher volatility. Being invested in the best 2 wide categories is a better idea.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 5, 2022 4:40:56 GMT
That is a lot of high tech going into space. The USD sold off today for reasons I do not have a grip on. The selloff put a tailwind behind a lot of commodities as evidenced by the surge in the CRB index. The CRB broke above trend and above 2 recent highs. It looks like a budding rally in commodities. MJ is a commodity isn't it? Marijuana is a commodity in my neck of the woods! Regardless, MJ continues upward...I'm getting ready to buy another bucket. Likely after election day. TLT 20 yr Treasuries (and ZROZ, zero coupon treasuries) is on my fun-to-buy watchlist now...great looking charts. R48
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Gold
Nov 5, 2022 13:17:45 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 5, 2022 13:17:45 GMT
The ETF, DBB, invests in futures contracts and options for Aluminum, Zinc, & Copper. The ETF also had a breakout day on friday with a 6.31% gain. DBB does not invest in silver. Other commodities seem to have had a rather normal day on friday. My thought is that we are seeing an increased demand for base metals and silver. The prices for the base metals probably are getting some help from the soft USD, but if the dollar was the only driver, a number of other commodities would be rallying also. My assumption is that we are witnessing a revival of manufactoring of high end electronic systems such as those used in missiles, rockets, & drones. A question that remains is who does most of that manufactoring.
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