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Gold
Apr 20, 2021 1:35:54 GMT
Post by cactusjack on Apr 20, 2021 1:35:54 GMT
Richardsok and I must share some measure of caution (though I lack his riverboat gambler instinct). I have about 7% of investible assets in gold and silver (physical gold, GLDI, SLVO). Gold looks to be in recovery mode and I may add a bit tomorrow (missed the dividend, asleep at the switch). The riverboat gambler reference was a complement, by the way...I lack the courage to try the multi-levered stuff in which he sometimes dabbles.
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Gold
Apr 20, 2021 14:58:14 GMT
Post by richardsok on Apr 20, 2021 14:58:14 GMT
Jack-- If, like me, you sometimes hold SLVO and GLDI, you're speculatin' with the boldest. (Not always the same crowd as the wisest.) Good luck.
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Gold
Apr 20, 2021 19:19:03 GMT
Post by cactusjack on Apr 20, 2021 19:19:03 GMT
Just added a small amount to existing GLDi position. Looks like some potential gain after price drop in line with the dividend amount. Thinking I can live with the dividends for a while even if cap gain doesn't pan out.
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Gold
Apr 21, 2021 3:23:09 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 21, 2021 3:23:09 GMT
GLDI is an ETN, so it is a Note [CS debt/obligation] that tracks an index simulating long position in GLD with call-writing [buying selling 3% out-of-the-money calls every month].
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Gold
Apr 21, 2021 18:48:08 GMT
Post by cactusjack on Apr 21, 2021 18:48:08 GMT
Thanks for the clear explanation Yogi. I was a little hazy myself on exactly what it was. I looked at it as buying a position in gold with limited upside potential in exchange for a pretty nice dividend. (Rolling the dice with a bit of mad money). I was of the impression they were selling calls rather than buying them.
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Gold
Apr 21, 2021 19:10:41 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 21, 2021 19:10:41 GMT
Thanks for the clear explanation Yogi. I was a little hazy myself on exactly what it was. I looked at it as buying a position in gold with limited upside potential in exchange for a pretty nice dividend. (Rolling the dice with a bit of mad money). I was of the impression they were selling calls rather than buying them. Oops! You are absolutely right. Call WRITING is SELLING calls, not buying. Hope that is more CLEAR now . Good that editing window was open.
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Gold
Apr 22, 2021 4:03:50 GMT
Post by chang on Apr 22, 2021 4:03:50 GMT
Oops! You are absolutely right. Call WRITING is SELLING calls, not buying. Hope that is more CLEAR now . Good that editing window was open. Disabling of post editing/deleting is set for 10,080 minutes = 7 days. I can make it longer, but nobody has asked...
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Gold
Apr 23, 2021 15:46:14 GMT
Post by richardsok on Apr 23, 2021 15:46:14 GMT
chang -- For a bit of chart perspective, you will see gold has done nothing in the last TEN years. Nevertheless during the "long trough" slow & steady DCA has worked satisfactorily. I didn't know it at the time, but it was a good time frame to build my cache of physical coins and bars. I also know legislatures and central bank officials have never before run up debts/deficits/liquidity with such irresponsible abandon as now. We're in uncharted waters. We're told inflationary pressures are mild & benign; easily controlled. Uh-huh. I prefer to believe inflation exists -- and is showing its fangs largely in equity prices and home prices.... and when inflation really roars and throws off its sheepskin, it will be too late for the unprepared. The Fed will balk to impose the tough love they should have years earlier. If one argues that more useful commodities make better inflation hedges than gold, I can't disagree. SDCI & COMB have no K-1 complications and have just broken out above recent tops. There are also a couple of agricultural funds about. Might be an alternative worth consideration. But buying lumber producers now, OTOH, might be a little late. People can't stop eating, but at some point building HAS to slow if lumber prices continue upward. Heck, I can't even find a few cypress or oak planks for the bookcases I was planning to build. The tag was outrageous and I refused to use lowly pine. Has anyone priced teak? It is to laugh.. GLDI and SLVO seem curiously low. Might be an opportunity there for a SMALL position in these highly speculative ponies. I own some. Even water (in the form of AWR) has been chugging up strong and steady for the last few months; I bought an opening position a couple of months back and have been slowly adding bits until the chart trend breaks. Other tactics; precious metal short puts, covered calls, etc. have been extensively discussed elsewhere. No point in revisiting here. Good luck.
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Gold
Apr 23, 2021 16:47:09 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Apr 23, 2021 16:47:09 GMT
Gold and oil move very quickly when they do. So, I don't look at what they did over 10, 15, 20 years.
For years, I had GGN, GNT that have both gold- and oil- producers, and also write options that generate income and act as hedging. Problem I saw was that they caught only the early stages of sharp up-moves in gold or oil, but then stalled out. Yet, they had full downsides of each. And I didn't need income [often ROCs].
So, now I only hold gold-miners GDX, GDXJ and oil-producers XLE, IYE separately; i.e., no hedging. For several months, I have been gradually shifting from oil to gold. If my timing if off, I have only myself to blame.
There are also gold-bullion [GLD, IAU, SGOL] and crude-oil [USO, BNO] ETFs, but I am OK with only gold- and oil- producers.
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Post by anitya on Apr 23, 2021 18:12:17 GMT
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Post by cactusjack on Apr 23, 2021 19:03:06 GMT
I opened a position in GDX today. After puzzling over individual miners, I opted to follow Yogi's lead and get the ETF. Perhaps a bit late to the party, but the chart looks good and I share Richard's opinion regarding government economic policies. Thanks to you both for the cogent discussion.
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Post by racqueteer on Jul 16, 2021 12:02:23 GMT
GASP..... Please don't climb too far out on that limb, Chang!
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Gold
Sept 22, 2021 16:35:21 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Sept 22, 2021 16:35:21 GMT
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Gold
Sept 24, 2021 12:32:06 GMT
Post by richardsok on Sept 24, 2021 12:32:06 GMT
anitya--
If you'd asked that question a couple of months ago I'd have answered, "Oh, buy the ASA instead for the 13% discount. That's what I did."
If you had, you'd be sitting on an unrealized 11% loss ... just like me.
My earlier posts on the topic read like a clown car script. I hate gold.
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Gold
Sept 24, 2021 19:23:38 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Sept 24, 2021 19:23:38 GMT
I am sticking with position-trading for GDX, GDXJ. This means holding positions and buy some when prices fall too far and sell some when they get too high. Bought in this area already the last time but have limit-buy order in place lower.
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Gold
Oct 13, 2021 15:18:52 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Oct 13, 2021 15:18:52 GMT
GLD & SLV have caught a bid today and are taking out resistance levels. This could be the start of something good. SILJ is up 5+% so far today. Trading volume is spiking up along with price.
EDIT: The applicable ETF's are holding on to their early gains. Apparently the liklihood of persistant inflation is the trigger for the ralley.
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Post by richardsok on Oct 13, 2021 22:31:58 GMT
Yeah. ASA strong lately. Wife has stopped removing sharp objects from my office. Good sign, I guess.
Bought some NEM.
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Gold
Dec 14, 2021 19:17:27 GMT
Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 14, 2021 19:17:27 GMT
I don’t really get the crypto currency thing, but I guess it’s real. I’m not comfortable with buying it myself but I wonder if there is a commodity managed fund that includes cryptos with traditional commodities. I bet that has taken away some PM luster.
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Gold
Dec 14, 2021 19:52:40 GMT
Post by Fearchar on Dec 14, 2021 19:52:40 GMT
Inverted 3-yr forward Eurodollar futures contracts are a good proxy for where the market thinks the federal funds rate will be in three years' time.
Gold peaked last year when forward interest rate expectations were at an all-time low.
Super-low interest rates pose the risk of higher inflation.
With the Fed finally seriously talking about raising rates, gold doesn't make as much sense because forward-looking investors should judge the risk of future inflation to be somewhat less now. Also, Gold is only modestly below it's all time high in real terms.
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Post by Capital on Dec 14, 2021 23:31:53 GMT
I don’t really get the crypto currency thing, but I guess it’s real. I’m not comfortable with buying it myself but I wonder if there is a commodity managed fund that includes cryptos with traditional commodities. I bet that has taken away some PM luster. I still do not see it as real. There is no way it replaces Gold; and, I have issues with Gold. First of all Gold does serve as a real store of value; however, if everything goes to hell who is going to want to buy it. If things really go all that bad I won't buy your Gold - I will want to obtain FOOD however the heck I can get it. And if things are that bad nobody will be running an "internet" - and - without the Internet does Crypto really exist anymore?
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Gold
Dec 15, 2021 2:03:31 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Dec 15, 2021 2:03:31 GMT
I have concluded gold will not compete well, because of bitcoin alternative, which has had tremendous price appreciation in last couple years. No need to consider whether bitcoin has value or not...it's all price action. I easily see $500,000 and $5 in bitcoin's future. Young want bitcoin.
Also realize that bitcoin is causing gold to lag, because many now conclude BOTH are inflation hedges. Thus, the owners of gold are selling some, to buy bitcoin...part of being diversified. Gold has been accumulated for centuries; bitcoin for a few years. Way more assets in gold. So even going to an 80/20, gold/bitcoin split, means lots of money from selling gold, going into bitcoin. And all NEW accumulation dollars going into bitcoin.
I have had discussions with my adult children to be prepared. Be prepared to buy gold IF/WHEN BITCOIN COLLAPSES...like goes to $5 a coin. Being prepared means to buy gold starting after perhaps bitcoin down 80%, studying the gold chart, and never let gold get into an uptrend without you buying or owning some. Gold might selloff at first because of the bitcoin fall. Just like an athletic team practices for big moments, investors would do well to have a clear strategy/technique in place. This opportunity (bitcoin collapsing) may only come once...or never at all. Buy gold then.
R48
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Gold
Dec 15, 2021 12:05:05 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 15, 2021 12:05:05 GMT
I have concluded gold will not compete well, because of bitcoin alternative, which has had tremendous price appreciation in last couple years. No need to consider whether bitcoin has value or not...it's all price action. I easily see $500,000 and $5 in bitcoin's future. Young want bitcoin. Also realize that bitcoin is causing gold to lag, because many now conclude BOTH are inflation hedges. Thus, the owners of gold are selling some, to buy bitcoin...part of being diversified. Gold has been accumulated for centuries; bitcoin for a few years. Way more assets in gold. So even going to an 80/20, gold/bitcoin split, means lots of money from selling gold, going into bitcoin. And all NEW accumulation dollars going into bitcoin. I have had discussions with my adult children to be prepared. Be prepared to buy gold IF/WHEN BITCOIN COLLAPSES...like goes to $5 a coin. Being prepared means to buy gold starting after perhaps bitcoin down 80%, studying the gold chart, and never let gold get into an uptrend without you buying or owning some. Gold might selloff at first because of the bitcoin fall. Just like an athletic team practices for big moments, investors would do well to have a clear strategy/technique in place. This opportunity (bitcoin collapsing) may only come once...or never at all. Buy gold then. R48 That is a sound approach to gold. Another way is to methodically aquire shares in the top miners. In spite of the alledged low prices for gold and silver, the prices are high enough to support reasonable dividends for the better ones.
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Gold
Dec 30, 2021 18:49:07 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2021 18:49:07 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 30, 2021 19:21:07 GMT
uncleharley, Canadian gold/silver bullion CEF with PFIC issues for US holders?
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Gold
Dec 30, 2021 21:36:57 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2021 21:36:57 GMT
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Gold
Jan 18, 2022 13:52:00 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Jan 18, 2022 13:52:00 GMT
Silver has made a major break out this A M. Let's see if it holds.
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Post by richardsok on Jan 18, 2022 14:50:03 GMT
Silver has made a major break out this A M. Let's see if it holds. From my viewpoint, the PMs continue their maddening patterns. Silver never came close to breaking its double resistance of August and November..... and still isn't. NEM, AUY, GLTR, GDX, GGN and GLD itself never fail to disappoint. The only PM I hold is SBSW for the good yield while waiting, waiting for "Goldot'? Of course, if you want to use me as your contrary indicator, be my guest. You won't be the first. - - - - - - - Correction. Still holding a toehold in AGQ I'd forgotten about.
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Gold
Jan 18, 2022 15:42:19 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Jan 18, 2022 15:42:19 GMT
Strangely enough SLV is still holding its break and adding to it. Gld is also moving higher. Normally gold leads silver at the start, but there is not a lot of normal going around right now.
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Gold
Jan 28, 2022 13:15:27 GMT
Post by Chahta on Jan 28, 2022 13:15:27 GMT
I own 4 Krugerrands my dad took as payment in about 1980 with gold at $600/OZ. Triple that today for 2.7% per year compounded. Using an online inflation calculator they have barely kept pace with inflation. OK I guess. But I am contemplating whether to hold them another 40 years. Pretty much jewelry as you say unless there is a doomsday scenario.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 28, 2022 13:54:49 GMT
Precious metals have been their most useful for me as a swing trade. They do well when the USD is weak and do poorly when the USD is strengthening. If I had those Kruggerands I would keep them as a family heirloom.
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