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Post by chang on Dec 5, 2023 19:33:11 GMT
anitya I won't sell my PFE due to sitting on CGs, or my foreign HC stocks. But FSMEX in my IRA has been a disaster, especially alongside the other holdings - FSUTX, FICDX, FBRGX, and FISMX. Would anyone recommend cutting FSMEX loose and distributing the proceeds among the other funds? chang , Time to reassess? That's the $64,000 question, isn't it? R48 said "no" in another thread - he's keeping IHI, as he expects tailwinds. Me? I have no clue, as always.
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Post by acksurf on Dec 5, 2023 22:09:24 GMT
That's the $64,000 question, isn't it? R48 said "no" in another thread - he's keeping IHI, as he expects tailwinds. Me? I have no clue, as always. FWIW - I have reduced my healthcare sector funds (IHI, FHLC) to negligible holdings in an HSA account (tiny). I decided I might trade sector funds/stocks if the timing looks good but I don't plan on long term HC etf positions. However, I have tinkered with the idea of a higher dividend HC stock such as Abbvie. As R48 mentioned, the device companies got hammered by Covid and still haven't recovered. I got some decent returns on LLY.
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Post by mnfish on Dec 6, 2023 13:37:12 GMT
anitya I won't sell my PFE due to sitting on CGs, or my foreign HC stocks. But FSMEX in my IRA has been a disaster, especially alongside the other holdings - FSUTX, FICDX, FBRGX, and FISMX. Would anyone recommend cutting FSMEX loose and distributing the proceeds among the other funds? FWIW - Wells Advisors rates Health Care as a Favorable sector and Health Care Equipment as a Favorable sub-sector for 2024. The top 3 holdings of FSMEX are TMO (recently upgraded from underweight to equal weight), DHR (overweight) and BSX (overweight)
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 6, 2023 17:56:55 GMT
anitya I won't sell my PFE due to sitting on CGs, or my foreign HC stocks. But FSMEX in my IRA has been a disaster, especially alongside the other holdings - FSUTX, FICDX, FBRGX, and FISMX. Would anyone recommend cutting FSMEX loose and distributing the proceeds among the other funds? FWIW - Wells Advisors rates Health Care as a Favorable sector and Health Care Equipment as a Favorable sub-sector for 2024. The top 3 holdings of FSMEX are TMO (recently upgraded from underweight to equal weight), DHR (overweight) and BSX (overweight) Oh, as always, there are many advisors and gurus who have been recommending healthcare throughout this year. But what about this year's healthcare performance? We all know a relative laggard when we see it. Proof is in the pudding, sort of stuff. Like, my oldest daughter is in QA at the Univ. of NC Hospital in Chapel Hill...the State's top hospital. She considers several issues face all hospitals in next decade that may result in poor performance. The following issues involve hospitals, medical care and insurance: lack of staffing at ALL LEVELS; unqualified staffing, quiet-quitters on staff; high cost of Obamacare, with limited coverage; unpaying immigrants; rising insurance rates; complete business model changes for providers such as CVS is now undertaking; fed gvt involvement; political football in election years; aging baby boomers/costs; inability for most to "work-at-home"--need hands-on involvement; interest rate expenses for any capital improvements or expansion...etc, etc. While most sectors have challenges, I don't know if I want to overweight healthcare in next decade; perhaps an underweight is called for. R48
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Post by richardsok on Dec 6, 2023 20:47:00 GMT
BMEZ is showing an interesting chart pattern.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 6, 2023 21:19:36 GMT
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Post by mnfish on Dec 7, 2023 11:02:28 GMT
FWIW - Wells Advisors rates Health Care as a Favorable sector and Health Care Equipment as a Favorable sub-sector for 2024. The top 3 holdings of FSMEX are TMO (recently upgraded from underweight to equal weight), DHR (overweight) and BSX (overweight) Oh, as always, there are many advisors and gurus who have been recommending healthcare throughout this year. But what about this year's healthcare performance? We all know a relative laggard when we see it. Proof is in the pudding, sort of stuff. Like, my oldest daughter is in QA at the Univ. of NC Hospital in Chapel Hill...the State's top hospital. She considers several issues face all hospitals in next decade that may result in poor performance. The following issues involve hospitals, medical care and insurance: lack of staffing at ALL LEVELS; unqualified staffing, quiet-quitters on staff; high cost of Obamacare, with limited coverage; unpaying immigrants; rising insurance rates; complete business model changes for providers such as CVS is now undertaking; fed gvt involvement; political football in election years; aging baby boomers/costs; inability for most to "work-at-home"--need hands-on involvement; interest rate expenses for any capital improvements or expansion...etc, etc. While most sectors have challenges, I don't know if I want to overweight healthcare in next decade; perhaps an underweight is called for. R48 Wells Advisors rate the sub-sector of Health Care Services as Unfavorable which seems to be what you are describing. Since FSMEX is a Medical Technology and Devices, I thought I would post what I did about the Health Care Equipment sub-sector.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 7, 2023 20:42:08 GMT
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Post by catdog on Dec 8, 2023 0:02:32 GMT
A bright spot in healthcare has been Cardinal Healthcare (CAH). Not a fund and obviously past an entry point. For a few years I was a supply gopher at a small hospital and got exposed to the company through their products at work. It has been on my watch list for about 3 years and I was too chicken to buy. (seems like I say that a lot)
catdog
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Post by anitya on Dec 10, 2023 22:57:33 GMT
I am sure this will not come as a surprise to anyone. Per Fidelity as of Dec 7, the following are the US stocks with the highest short interest -
Tenon Medical (TNON) Intelligent Bio Solutions (INBS) Enliven Therapeutics (ELVN) Mullen Automotive (MULN) Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC) Wheeler Real Estate (WHLR) E-Home Household Service (EJH) Fortress Biotech (FBIO) Beyond Meat (BYND) INVO Bioscience (INVO)
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Post by anitya on Dec 15, 2023 20:20:09 GMT
Sold out of IHI. Still own FSMEX, which could be next to go in my HC.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 16, 2023 4:02:46 GMT
For info...Per Morningstar, IHI has bettered FSMEX in performance for 3 month, ytd and 5 yr periods.
I have not exited any healthcare yet...
R48
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Post by chang on Dec 16, 2023 9:31:27 GMT
For info...Per Morningstar, IHI has bettered FSMEX in performance for 3 month, ytd and 5 yr periods. I have not exited any healthcare yet... R48 In fairness, this is due to FSMEX’s recent plunge. If you change the end date to the last peak, then FSMEX will beat IHI over every time period. (Just as right now, IHI beats FSMEX over every time period.) This just goes to show how TR charts can be highly sensitive to choice of start and end dates. However, that in itself suggests that — for the B&H investor who doesn’t trade frequently and doesn’t care about start and end dates — there may be little difference between Fund A and Fund B (in this case, FSMEX and IHI). In such a case, perhaps expense ratio (or tax efficiency, in a taxable account) should play the major role in deciding. In my case, I bought FSMEX a few years ago in my IRA. I remember at that time it beat IHI over every time period. So I made the exact error described. Since my IRA is much smaller than my taxable account, the tax deferred space is very valuable and I should use it for desirable actively managed funds without any good ETF substitutes. Hence, I do have to wonder whether to keep FSMEX or ditch it (in which case I could buy IHI in taxable, or not, depending upon whether I am any to continue to overweight the sector).
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 16, 2023 18:10:51 GMT
chang ,...Remember IHI is an ETF, and in taxable you get de minimal annual cap gain payouts. Upon re-reading, I am not sure I understand this "Since my IRA is much smaller than my taxable account, the tax deferred space is very valuable and I should use it for desirable actively managed funds without any good ETF substitutes. " Seems you should use taxable for primarily ETFs; and put regular mutual funds in IRAs, where annual cap gains is a nontaxable event?? Like, a small cap ETF is great for taxable...limited annual income, and minimal annual cap gains...until you sell (if ever). Edit to add: Note many ETFs are now "actively managed" as well. R48
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Post by chang on Dec 16, 2023 18:42:33 GMT
Seems you should use taxable for primarily ETFs; and put regular mutual funds in IRAs, where annual cap gains is a nontaxable event?? Quite right. I try to keep active funds in tax deferred and ETFs in taxable. Unfortunately I have two active funds (JENIX, FPURX) in taxable with severe tax handcuffs, so I just suck up the distributions. Actually, I am looking at my Fido TIRA and considering putting FICDX and FSMEX on the chopping block.
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Post by anitya on Dec 16, 2023 21:51:33 GMT
I am 7% overweight in HC relative S&P 500. PRWCX and TCAF, which I own, are also heavy into HC. I think investing in active equity funds and then also in sector funds can be too much of a good thing or too much of a bad thing because I am too slow in acting on investments. I might trade sector funds but no longer plan to invest in them.
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comlb
Lieutenant
Posts: 67
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Post by comlb on Dec 17, 2023 17:12:51 GMT
kathiel has the best insights on this space, curious if she sees anything interesting
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Post by kathiel on Dec 19, 2023 1:03:58 GMT
I don't know that I have anything interesting to recommend. The pharmas that have gone way up (LLY, NONOF) are overpriced at this point, IMO. I think I'll pock up some more PFE, as it has been so beaten down.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 19, 2023 2:40:51 GMT
I don't know that I have anything interesting to recommend. The pharmas that have gone way up (LLY, NONOF) are overpriced at this point, IMO. I think I'll pock up some more PFE, as it has been so beaten down. PFE has certainly been beaten down. Is there any reason why the beatings should not continue? I see no redeeming qualities on either the daily or weekly charts. jmho
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Post by kathiel on Dec 19, 2023 16:03:34 GMT
PFE is a large and profitable Pharma. They have a large stable of brand-name drugs and a good pipeline. For those who like dividends, PFE is currently paying 6%.
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Post by catdog on Dec 19, 2023 18:14:19 GMT
Looking back over 25 years (tried not to cherrypick) the share price has spent a lot of time in the mid 30's. It's not a growth stock it is a total return stock. I have watched it for twelve years, but only owned it for two years. The people screaming the loudest were still piling in at over $50 even as most people considered the pandemic over. I am regretting not buying last week.
catdog
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Post by anitya on Dec 19, 2023 18:55:51 GMT
“I am regretting not buying last week.”
it has gone up 7-8% from last week low. By the time I noticed the price, it had already moved up 4%. I bought it anyway.. If nothing else, I will clip the 6% qualified Div. I will be surprised if the price does not go back below the current price. One of the biggest gripes I have about the management is the low insider ownership.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 19, 2023 20:24:46 GMT
Fair amount of chatter on PFE, as in "great company in a funk but a long term buy". I'm in that camp. 6.2% div and up 3.5% today. Covid comps rolling off.
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Post by steelpony10 on Dec 19, 2023 21:46:16 GMT
uncleharley , You might be one of the few interested in this as a long term hold. Check 5 Star BME (reinvested long term) against PFE on Fund Performance. Gains and/or big income is on sale now. The post is about PFE which isn’t in it’s top 10 holdings. A little research and any decision about PFE is crystal clear.
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Post by mnfish on Dec 20, 2023 12:23:30 GMT
Some snippets from a recent Wells PFE note -
- 2024 EPS guidance not only reflects conservative COVID expectations but also lower than expected outlook for base business, margins, and SGEN dilutive impact. As PFE focuses on executing on new launches, the stock could be a work in progress in '24.
- Mgmt acknowledged they would be unable to reach their 6% CAGR target, excluding BD, for 2022-25 at current growth rates, and refrained from commenting on the readthrough to 2030 targets.
- The co. emphasized that they are committed to the dividend, despite the payout ratio being 76% at current dividend and '24 EPS guidance midpoint.
The last time I bought PFE was in 2012 for $19.71 and have enjoyed the dividend nearly doubling since then. I would consider buying some more at around $20 but not here. Everything depends on Covid vaccine sales in the near term. Wells has a price target of $28 and MStar is $42 after lowering it.
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Post by kathiel on Dec 20, 2023 14:11:59 GMT
For those of you looking for growth in a Pharma stock, I recommend ABBV, a long-term favorite of mine. They have recently purchased two small biotechs to enhance their already robust pipeline.
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Post by anitya on Dec 20, 2023 15:01:05 GMT
chang, My memory could be faulty but thought you used to own XBI and / or FBIOX. Do you still own?
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Post by chang on Dec 20, 2023 15:17:19 GMT
chang, My memory could be faulty but thought you used to own XBI and / or FBIOX. Do you still own? Hell, no. But I remember very well my buy/sell story. I bought XBI at $59, again at $77, and again at $100 (a couple of times). I watched it soar into the stratosphere, and then began the collapse. I finally sold out at $110. So I did OK, but not anywhere as well as if I’d sold at the top. I’m a lousy trader.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 20, 2023 17:57:24 GMT
Yes, ABBV caught a bid on Dec 1 when it bought ImmunoGen for their treatment, ELAHERE, for ovarian and a few other cancers. Up 10%. The drug got accelerated approval treatment from the FDA and the market ovarian cancer market is expected to be about $2B in 2024 and grow from there but ELAHERE is approved only for cancers that have been treated unsuccessfully by 1-3 other chemo treatments. Full approval isn't granted yet. I've watched ABBV since Kathiel posted about it 1.5 yrs ago after a run from 100 to 170 and a small pullback. Been stuck in a range, bouncing between 140 and 150ish and hasn't broken out above 160 yet.
BTW, PFE up 7% in the last 5 days. Good call.
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Post by oldskeet on Dec 21, 2023 13:56:29 GMT
Hi guys. After selling out of my spiff position I am now a little cash heavy. In checking my allocation to healthcare I am currently at about 14% according to an X-ray analysis. To maintain diversication I am putting some of the spiff sale proceeds into SVAAX which is invested at about 50% into the defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities. Another 30% is split between energy and financials. And, it sports a tax friendly dividend yield of about 4%. Since, I have an ample weighting in healthcare I feel this is the better approach for me over buying a sector specific fund(s).
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